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The New Neo

A blog about political change, among other things

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More candidates need to drop out…

The New Neo Posted on November 18, 2015 by neoNovember 18, 2015

…before the primaries really get going.

You can see what I mean from this recent poll of NH voters. Trump is way ahead—as “way ahead” is defined at this point, with so many candidates in the race. He’s get 22% of the vote. But Bush also gets 7%, as does Kasich (who is going absolutely nowhere, although not soon enough for me), with Christie at 5, Paul 5, and Fiorina 3. You get the picture.

The other major contenders (who should not drop out) are Carson at 11, Rubio at 11, and Cruz at 8. Trump’s scores have barely changed in NH in the last two months, and Carson has fallen. But Cruz and especially Rubio have climbed. If the race narrows down, I predict that major shifts will occur, and I’d like to see it happen.

NH is not a typical state, nor is it a state where primary polls have a good predictive record. But I think the situation there is not atypical of the situation in general in a great many other states.

Posted in Election 2016 | 9 Replies

On the opposition to the “refugees,” Obama offers his usual insightful, well-reasoned, and statesmanlike analysis

The New Neo Posted on November 18, 2015 by neoNovember 18, 2015

Obama reacts to critics of his immigration policy with the sort of style and substance we’ve come to expect of our president:

Speaking to reporters Wednesday morning in the Philippines, Obama scoffed at attempts to block refugees following the Paris terror attacks as “political posturing” that “needs to stop.”

“Apparently they are scared of widows and orphans coming into the United States of America,” Obama said of Republicans. “At first, they were too scared of the press being too tough on them in the debates. Now they are scared of three year old orphans. That doesn’t seem so tough to me.”

There’s nothing like the old “scaredy-cat, scaredy-cat!” routine to demonstrate the unity and lack of divisiveness, the insight and cool analysis of the situation, that Americans can appreciate from Obama, particularly coming less than a week after the Paris attacks.

Obama, a president for the ages.

Posted in Obama, Terrorism and terrorists | 25 Replies

Raid on terror suspects in France

The New Neo Posted on November 18, 2015 by neoNovember 18, 2015

A shoot out left some dead and some in custody:

For the second time in a week, gunfire and explosions ripped through France on Wednesday — this time in an hours-long ordeal that ended with at least two terror suspects dead, seven detained, new attacks potentially thwarted and further proof, according to French President Francois Hollande, that his country is “at war” with ISIS.

Authorities zeroed in on a building in the northern Paris suburb of Saint-Denis after picking up phone conversations indicating that a relative of Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the suspected ringleader of last week’s bloody attacks, might be there, a Belgian counterterrorism official said. French police also believed Abaaoud himself was then still in the country, though they didn’t know exactly where.

By late Wednesday, the new question was whether or not he is even alive. Investigators are using DNA to analyze the body parts found in the Saint-Denis building where a female suspect first blew herself up and then French forces used powerful munitions to combat others, which led to one floor of the building collapsing.

That’s good news, but it’s a drop in the bucket. I wonder whether the information that the terrorists were traced through “picking up phone conversations” is a good thing to disclose—or whether it’s even true, or a false lead meant to throw terrorists off the trail. I would prefer the latter in this case; I don’t think terrorists need to know any more about what leads authorities to their whereabouts.

Then there are the emergency powers (potentially dangerous to liberty and vulnerable to abuse, but probably necessary at this point) that I’ve written about before:

Hollande said that Wednesday evening he would present legislation to extend France’s state of emergency for three more months — a measure that, among other things, gives authorities greater powers in conducting searches, holding people and dissolving certain groups.

Someone in the neighborhood where the firefight occurred had this to say:

“When you think of Saint-Denis, you don’t think of terrorists,” he told CNN. “I’m shocked! Why would the terrorists pick this neighborhood?”

I think he may have answered his own question. When you’re hiding, best to hide where you’re not expected to be found.

Posted in Terrorism and terrorists | 5 Replies

Jindal drops out

The New Neo Posted on November 18, 2015 by neoNovember 18, 2015

It really was inevitable that Bobby Jindal would drop out of the race. He never really caught on, and he knows when it’s time to quit:

“I’ve come to the realization that this is not my time,” Jindal said on Fox News Channel as he announced the decision to suspend his campaign.

The 44-year-old governor said he wasn’t ready to endorse another candidate, but intended to support the eventual Republican presidential nominee.

Term-limited and out of office in January, Jindal said he will work with a think tank he started a few years ago, called America Next, to devise what he called “a blueprint for making this the American century.”

That may actually be the best use of his talents at this point. He’s a smart guy.

For some reason, I also am amazed that Jindal (like Rubio and Cruz) is only 44. I don’t know what age I thought he was (I don’t think I ever really thought about it at all), but he seemed ageless.

Posted in Election 2016 | 20 Replies

Candidate vulnerability

The New Neo Posted on November 17, 2015 by neoNovember 17, 2015

It’s no secret that Marco Rubio is vulnerable with conservatives on his Gang of Eight history. On reading this Powerline piece about Cruz’s possible vulnerabilities (which don’t seem that bad to me, by the way) it occurs to me this is the price of having political experience in Congress, particularly as a senator.

Senators always have such a history of at least a couple of potential problem votes; it’s the nature of the Senate, which is nothing if not convoluted. Sometimes compromise is necessary, and a person votes for something that doesn’t represent his/her viewpoint 100% but is considered better than the alternatives. Or sometimes a person makes a misjudgment. There are so very many votes that a dedicated opponent can always find something to object to, and purist voters can say they’re not going to vote for senator candidates because the voter’s principles demand perfect adherence to the True Cause.

A candidate with no political experience or history—such as Donald Trump (he’s not the only one, but he’s the most prominent one)—has no history of votes which could pin him down. His supporters argue (paradoxically) that he can be trusted, probably in part because he’s never had to act on anything he’s promising. In fact, all we have with Trump are his business record and his words, as well as his previous campaign contributions.

He’s supported Kelo, with vigor. He’s had great things to say about Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton, and contributed to many liberal candidates as well as having himself been a Democrat off and on for many years. His personal financial interests have always warped and shaped his behavior in the political sense, and he admits as much—that he’s long given political contributions of great magnitude to many Democrats because this will help him make more money. That’s his prerogative, but I fail to see how it increases his trustworthiness.

Getting back to Congress, today Ted Cruz is reported to be drafting a Senate bill to bar Syrian Muslim refugees but allow Syrian Christian refugees. This makes logical sense—Christians are being slaughtered for their religion alone, and it’s from the ranks of Muslims that the terrorists come—criticism from liberals will be fierce (read the comments section there to see some of it). Meanwhile, Paul Ryan is proposing a bill in the House that would call for better vetting of refugees.

Posted in Election 2016, Immigration | 34 Replies

Mom of suicide bomber has no idea how it happened

The New Neo Posted on November 17, 2015 by neoNovember 17, 2015

At first I read this article thinking that the escuses offered by Faklan Abdeslam—the mother of Paris suicide bomber Ibrahim Abdeslam, who blew himself up during the Paris attacks, injuring another man—were mordantly, bitterly, absurd. Faklan, by the way, is actually the mother of three men implicated in the Paris attacks, the aforementioned Ibrahim and his brothers Salah (getaway car) and Mohamed (unclear what his involvement might be; perhaps none, because he has been released after questioning).

Her denial of any knowledge, and her excuse that Ibrahim could not have possibly meant to kill anyone because he didn’t manage to kill anyone, appeared worthy of The Onion. After all, what young Muslim man straps on a suicide vest and joins a terrorist attack that slaughters well over a hundred people, blows himself up, but is not implicated in being one of the agents of the deal of all?

And it is absurd that his mother denies it. However, what’s not absurd is the fact that these brothers may have had a particularly good cover for the fact that they were jihadis, and this is of grave concern.

Unlike the French citizen who took part in the terrorist attack in Paris, the brothers had no history (other than a trip to Syria for Ibrahim) that would have alarmed the authorities, and their work and social profile argued against it (unless, of course, everyone in the article is lying):

Two weeks ago, the mayor of Molenbeek ordered the closure of a neighborhood bar where Brussels police had found young men dealing drugs and smoking dope over the summer.

Last Friday, the owner blew himself up at another laid-back corner cafe, this time in Paris, on a mission of retribution from Islamic State.

Brahim Abdeslam’s journey from barkeeper to suicide bomber remains a mystery, along with the whereabouts of his younger brother Salah, now on the run as Europe’s most wanted man but until recently the manager of Brahim’s bar, Les Beguines…

There is a seeming disconnect between the ownership by Muslims – whose religion forbids the use of alcohol and tobacco – of a bar, where drugs were being dealt, on a quiet street in the low-rent Brussels borough of Molenbeek who have become the focus of a manhunt for violent Islamists with ties to Syria.

Yet time and again, investigations after attacks like those that killed 129 people in Paris have uncovered tales of workaday Arab immigrant lives, assimilated to the profane daily cares and pleasures of European cities, that have turned, unseen to family and friends, into explosions of pious, suicidal fanaticism.

“It’s shocking, especially when it’s people you’ve hung out with,” said 25-year-old Nabil, as he walked home from work to his apartment nearby, past the cafe on rue des Beguines, now shuttered by court order, which Brahim Abdeslam, 31, had owned.

“They were regular guys, who enjoyed a laugh,” he said, still wearing his workclothes and a Nike baseball cap. “There was nothing radical about them. … They were here just last week hanging out. … I think they were indoctrinated. … There is some mastermind behind it all.”

Hicham, also 25 and in blue tracksuit and sneakers, echoed that view of Brahim and Salah: “They smoked. They didn’t go to the mosque or anything. We saw them every day at the cafe,” he said. Brahim, with a voice “like Sylvester Stallone,” could, he conceded, at times be “a bit crazy”.

“We played cards. We talked about football,” he added. “We talked about the everyday. Nothing jihadist, not about Islam.”

Again, Nabil and Hicham may be lying through their teeth. But if I had to bet, I’d say they’re not. The Abdeslam brothers fit closer to the profile of seemingly happy-go-lucky and well-assimilated pot user Dzhokhar Tsarnaev than they do the Mohammed Atta template.

So I think Nabil may be onto something when he talks about a mastermind, although that’s really not the correct word. But the brothers’ conversion may have been a recent, secret indoctrination, perhaps through the internet rather than the traditional mosque route. Radical mosques are far easier to infiltrate, control, or disband; what can be done about the internet in a free country?

And that, in a way, is even more alarming. There is no simple way to track someone like that, once he is in the country and especially if he, like Ibrahim, is a citizen born in Europe (he was a French citizen born in Brussels). Although at least one of the Paris terrorists (and perhaps more) was a very recent arrival (“refugee”) to Europe, several of them seem to have been native-born, like Ibrahim. A trip to Syria is a red flag, to be sure, but how would it be possible to prevent or monitor that fact? Even if such travel were to be prohibited or cause for being followed by authorities in some way, it would seem extraordinarily difficult to track unless the people involved were to fly directly from European countries to Syria (or arrive back directly from Syria), which is impossible at present. But it is way too easy to travel to a different country and then get into Syria from there (fly to Turkey, for example).

I had at first assumed that Ibrahim’s self-detonation had occurred outside the stadium when he was thwarted at getting in. But no; it was outside a cafe. So there is indeed something odd about it, just as his mother said. She attributes it to stress, but I think we can safely discount that. My leading theory is accidental premature detonation, a well-known hazard of the suicide bomber trade. But there’s still another chilling possibility: that Ibrahim was somehow forced or pressured into this by other jihadi forces; this has been known to sometimes happen with Palestinian suicide bombers.

[NOTE: The family is based in Molenbeek, Brussels, and the mother spoke through an interpreter.]

[ADDENDUM: See this for my view on the relevance of taqiyya in this case.]

Posted in Terrorism and terrorists | 31 Replies

Confirmed: it was a bomb that brought down the Russian plane

The New Neo Posted on November 17, 2015 by neoNovember 17, 2015

We knew it anyway, but now it’s official, according to Russia:

A homemade explosive device brought down a Russian passenger plane over Egypt last month, the head of Russia’s FSB security service said Tuesday, telling Russian President Vladimir Putin it’s now clear the bombing that killed 224 people was a “terrorist” act.

The crash killed 224 people, which makes the death toll greater than that in Paris.

According to our experts, a homemade explosive device equivalent to 1 kilogram of TNT went off onboard, which caused the plane to break up in the air, which explains why the fuselage was scattered over such a large territory. I can certainly say that this was a terrorist act,” FSB head Alexander Bortnikov said…

Putin vowed to hunt down those responsible for the attack.

“There’s no statute of limitations for this. We need to know all of their names,” Putin said. “We’re going to look for them everywhere wherever they are hiding. We will find them in any place on Earth and punish them.”

We’ve been hearing a lot of those kind of threats lately. Wonder if he can back it up.

Although there have been no arrests (some accounts say there have been), there is a report that two members of the airport staff are being questioned:

Egyptian authorities have detained two employees of Sharm al-Sheikh airport for questioning in connection with the downing of a Russian jet on Oct. 31 that killed all 224 people on board, two security officials and an airport employee said on Tuesday

“Seventeen people are being held, two of them are suspected of helping whoever planted the bomb on the plane at Sharm al-Sheikh airport,” said one of the security officials who both declined to be named.

One of the security officials said CCTV footage showed a baggage handler carrying a suitcase from an airport building to another man, who was loading luggage onto the doomed airliner from beneath the plane on the runway.

Posted in Terrorism and terrorists | 11 Replies

The “refugee” terrorist: it may have been a fake passport…

The New Neo Posted on November 17, 2015 by neoNovember 17, 2015

…but the fingerprints were real.

Posted in Terrorism and terrorists, Uncategorized | 7 Replies

Obama is scaring people, even Democrats

The New Neo Posted on November 16, 2015 by neoNovember 16, 2015

I didn’t watch Obama’s press conference, but I’ve seen the reports:

He’s a remarkable man, in all the wrong ways. He is the apotheosis of progressivism, the avatar and godling that is the living embodiment of all their cowardices, lies, hypocrisies, self-flatteries, and stupidities.

One self-flattery they’re fond of is claiming they have “evidence-based” reasoning, not ideology-based reasoning, and that their minds are supple things that readily incorporate new information and plot new strategies accordingly.

Obama is the ultimate exemplar of this fiction. He claims that he’s always interested in “whatever works” and he’s constantly engaging in high-level cognition about the world, and yet no matter what the news, no matter how badly his strategies and ideological priors have been shown to fail, he clings to them with the devotion of a child to his woobie.

The 8-strikes-a-day “strategy” to defeat ISIS? Complete failure. So we’re sticking to that.

Bringing in 10,000 Syrian refugees, despite having no way to vet them and despite two such refugees participating in the Paris attacks? Complete failure. So we’re sticking to that.

And on, and on, and on.

And all he can do is repeat the rote words, “twisted ideology” and “wrong side of history.”

This is progressivism’s greatest mind showing all its supple neuroelectric brilliance?

He summoned up his greatest ire, not for the perpetrators of the Paris attacks, but for those Republicans who dare criticize him.

A few of the saner Democrats were not all that pleased with Obama, either.

I’ve noticed something as well, although I don’t know whether it will last or what it means. A couple of my liberal friends seem to have been thrown, not only by the Paris attacks themselves, but by Obama’s insistence on business as usual and the same old same old. They seem disoriented and uneasy about it.

In the past, I’ve been fooled several times into thinking that sort of thing represents a real change and disillusionment, or at least the beginnings of real change and disillusionment. But I’ve been wrong. So this time I’ll just remark on the fact that I’ve observed it, and not try to over-interpret the phenomenon.

We’ve grown accustomed to certain basics where presidents are concerned. After all, protection of the country itself is one of the main functions of the federal government, with a president as its executive head. Even some erstwhile Obama supporters have noticed that Obama seems curiously blasé about the threat from an implacable and heinous enemy that fully merits being called evil.

Posted in Obama, Terrorism and terrorists | 64 Replies

For those who say Cruz isn’t “likable” and lacks humor

The New Neo Posted on November 16, 2015 by neoNovember 16, 2015

This might change a few minds. Send it around; I’d like it to get a wide audience:

To see how spot-on with his timing Cruz was, take a look at this:

I suppose Ted haters will consider it too “robotic.” But I think it’s great.

Posted in Election 2016, Movies, People of interest | 19 Replies

Searching for terrorist arms caches in France

The New Neo Posted on November 16, 2015 by neoNovember 16, 2015

Quite a find:

The interior ministry said 168 searches had taken place across the country in the wake of the Paris terror attacks…

Searches in Lille, Strasbourg, Lyon, Grenoble, Marseille and Toulouse resulted in the rocket launcher, flak jackets, 15 hand guns and eight other “weapons of war” being seized, according to Le Figaro.

Mr Cazaneuve said that a total of 31 weapons had been seized so far, with 104 suspected jihadists under house arrest and 23 people taken into custody overnight…

Mr Cazeneuve said: “This is just the beginning… The response of the Republic will be total… The terrorists will never destroy the Republic, because it is the Republic that will destroy them.”…

The raids were carried out under a series of powers that have been put in place by French President Francois Hollande since the massacre which left 129 dead.

Interesting on many levels. One is that it appears to have at least some elements of the Israeli approach I mentioned in the post about the Spengler article. If it continues, it means the French do have the will to do something, and although it doesn’t seem comprehensive enough, it’s still quite early in the game.

But of course, the suspension of the usual checks on government intrusion into people’s homes, under the rubric of “emergency powers,” can be dangerous in and of itself. Its proper use rests on having a government that has the people’s interests in mind and won’t abuse the privilege, particularly to thwart and frame its domestic opponents. That, unfortunately, is often not the case. And I doubt it would be the case if something similar happened here, especially while Obama is president.

France is undergoing a true crisis, and these raids are probably long overdue. But crisis yields opportunity—for tyranny, if a government and its leaders are so inclined.

[ADDENDUM: These are encouraging words, as well. The French Minister announces they will start “the dissolution of mosques where hate is preached.” That sounds as though it refers to the most radical of mosques. This is not against free speech or freedom of religion; it’s always been understood that if speech or a religion are actively involved in murders and the attempted overthrow of the state, what’s involved is no longer mere speech and it’s no longer religious freedom.]

Posted in Liberty, Terrorism and terrorists | 24 Replies

Obama versus the governors

The New Neo Posted on November 16, 2015 by neoNovember 16, 2015

I just want to note that, although I think the governors refusing to accept Syrian refugees are doing the right and necessary thing, it is important only in the sense of alerting people to what’s going on. It won’t ultimately stop “Syrian refugees” from entering their states if those refugees come to this country.

The governors are in the same position as the countries of the EU, only worse. EU countries being ordered to take on refugees they don’t want and whom they see as dangerous to them are still sovereign countries with borders, at least nominally. They can enforce their borders, although pressure will be brought on them.

But what can states do? Build walls? If the refugees are settled in another state, what stops them from moving anywhere they want in the US? I haven’t yet seen a discussion of this issue; perhaps I’m missing something, but that’s the way I see it at the moment.

For a long time Obama has been at war with the states on the topic of immigration; remember the administration’s lawsuit against Arizona when that state tried to enforce federal laws regarding immigration, laws that Obama had refused to enforce? That was serious. But this is even more serious.

[ADDENDUM: As far as I can see, so far the revolt is limited to Republican governors. Fortunately, we’ve got a lot of them, including even a mostly-blue state like Michigan. But if all the Democrats stand with Obama, I repeat that I don’t see how the Republican governors can ultimately keep the new arrivals from resettling in their states. And Obama, I believe, is fully aware of that.]

Posted in Immigration, Obama, Terrorism and terrorists | 15 Replies

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