Trump on the Iran Deal [scroll down for important UPDATE]
Here are some statements, for what they’re worth:
President Donald Trump dismissed “false” media claims that the U.S. will be party to a $300 billion fund for Iran, as leaked versions of the initial agreement allege that the regime will receive billions of dollars worth of “cash sweeteners” just to sign a “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU) on Friday.
“President Donald Trump says the agreed deal with Iran is not final,” BBC reported Wednesday. “Speaking at the G7 summit in France, he adds that the US will “go back to dropping bombs” if he does not like the final agreement.”
The president also rejected the $300 billion fund claim, calling it “false.” “People can invest if they want. I mean, what am I going to do — say nobody’s ever allowed to invest? We’re not investing. We’re not putting up ten cents,” he told reporters.
I’d say it’s about 50/50 that any agreement will be signed at all and released on Friday. Of course, that’s a pretty safe bet; you sort of win either way, because you’ve really predicted nothing except that it will be one or the other.
UPDATE 5:40 PM:
Just a few moments after I wrote and posted the above, I saw that there’s been a briefing from the White House on the deal. It says basically what I wrote yesterday, strangely enough, which was this:
At any rate, it sounds like the agreement is just an agreement to ease pressure on Iran in order to have some future negotiations. Why? Is this mainly a temporary measure about oil prices?
About today’s White House briefing:
“We’re not going to be taking their word for anything,” a senior U.S. official said when asked about “compliance” for Iran’s adherence to the deal, particularly when it comes to nuclear development, adding that the U.S. will “work very closely with the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA].”
Some provisions: a ceasefire (already in effect anyway, I would say), some blather about “mutual respect” (absurd, I would say, but typical diplospeak), more negotiations for 60 days for a “final” deal (which can be extended, so is basically meaningless), opening Hormuz – and the rest of it is mostly just things that might happen in a final agreement. A wish list, as it were.
What will happen more immediately is this:
The United States of America undertakes, but immediately upon the signing of this MOU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives and all associated services including banking, transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
There’s also this, which is somewhat opaque as to when it would happen:
The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use, the frozen, or restricted funds, and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of the MOU, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will usually agree on the procedures related to the relief of these funds during the negotiation. Such funds, whether retained in the original accounts or transferred, government may be fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The opaque part is whether this happens right away or is contingent, like so much of the rest, on further agreement.
It’s about what I expected, and I still find it troubling. It also still seems to me to be a way to get oil prices down in order to help the economy and the midterms. It seems to me to signal weakness, and since it depends on Trump’s now-uncertain readiness to go back to war if things don’t work out, that signal seems like an invitation to Iran to declare it has made the US capitulate. And in this case I think Iran would be correct.
I’ve written a great deal about Iran, both in the past and recently, and I’ve always seen it as an intractable problem. The Iranian government will stop at nothing – literally nothing – to stay in power. Our resolve does not include all-out war or boots on the ground. Modern technology and targeted bombings can only do so much.
ADDENDUM:
Professor Jacobson at LI says it more bluntly than I, but I’m in agreement with him:
It’s an embarrassment and sell out of our national interests. And that’s the nicest thing I can say about it. No reason to sugarcoat it. We went from sweeping military success to capitulating because Iran threatened to destroy the world economy and drive energy prices higher.
What a shame.
One of the many reservations I had about Trump at first, and have retained right along, is Trump’s mercurial nature and his loose-cannon tendencies. This can go either way; he’s unpredictable. Sometimes he’s rock-solid and sometimes he says or does things that make a person cringe. He is never completely reliable. The explanation for what is happening now with this deal – and the cause of my own uneasiness since the negotiations and ceasefire phase began – is not clear. But I agree that it has to do with economics. I would add, however, that Trump’s narcissistic desire to make a deal is probably some part of it. I’ve expressed that fear before: that the idea of himself as dealmaker extraordinaire would cause him to make a bad one. This seems to be that bad one, unless there’s a whole lot that I’m missing.
Another thing that has made me more and more uneasy as time has gone on is that Vance has become more visible as spokesperson compared to Rubio. This did not, and does not, bode well.
At the moment, this appears to rank up there with Biden’s retreat from Afghanistan – or worse. I hope I’m overreacting.
Many don’t want to acknowledge it, but Cushing bottoming out right as this deal was struck – by his own admission – confirms this is fundamentally a bow to the unavoidable.
Wow, Neo…you certainly have been invaded by trolls lately. WUWT.
physicsguy:
Actually, just one troll with a host of sock puppets. And an old (previous, that is) troll at that, with one new trick. Since trolls get off on kicking people when people seem to be feeling down, the Iran Deal is a tempting opportunity for a troll.
Don’t you find the rather sudden and high volume of trollishness correlated closely to the relative ease of rhetorical vulnerability given the many uncertainties surrounding the MOU, physicsguy? Seems kinda to be expected, to me. There’s metaphorical gold to be made, and all manner of opponents — be they foreign enemy types or domestic enemy types — are seizing the opportunties while they’re present.
sdferr:
Please see my comment above yours.
I did neo, but sadly for me only after I’d already pointlessly blurbed the above. Ah well.
Again, the public’s unwillingness to support all-out war against Iran provides all the political cover Congressional democrats and RINO’s need to hamstring Trump from being able to permanently do away with the Iranian theocracy. Which means the threat is only temporarily reduced. Clearly, we’ll have to lose a few major cities to nuclear terrorist attacks before the American public is dragged by events into finally facing up to the mortal, existential threat that Islam presents to the West.
The worth of the deal will be determined by it’s opposition.
Iran does not have an emporer to force a surrender. And no one in the western world, including us, has the stomach for a ground invasion (the costs of which could even have resulted in a negotiated peace with Japan in 45, absent the bomb and Russian pressure).
Also, absent the ground war, even with unlimited air-delivered ordinance, Germany would have carried on quite well. Why do we think the IRGC is any less committed than the Nazis?
It is incumbent upon the salesman of a product to ensure that said product functions and performs as advertised, otherwise the pitch is a lie. Iran is a global threat but this was poorly planned, poorly sold, and poorly executed. The proof of such is in the disappointment pudding, now being served.
This wasn’t thought through thoroughly enough, which in a sense is somewhat more disconcerting than how it was sold considering plans for this have been actively underway for over 20 years.
Iran is a global threat!
Or not, for now.
The 60 day cease fire/limited fire would benefit President Trump/Republicans midterm elections as much/more than Iran’s bragging rights.
How quickly oil gets flowing over the next month/60 days could determine the November elections. Gas prices could be down 50-75 cents/gallon by the end of August, which is when the campaigns begin in earnest.
Right now, conservatives/supporters of the President have to make the case how much Iran’s military capabilities have been degraded/ how we aren’t going to allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, let alone a nuclear weapons program. Iran is a shell of a military power at this point.
Once the case is made that the sacrifice has been worth it and overthrowing the regime was never the goal, Republican chances of retaining House and Senate majorities rise.
This is not capitulation and conservatives need to grow a spine. Every effort needs to be focused on the House and Senate races. Iran isn’t off the table– it’s been put in a timeout.
Geoffrey Britain – The public’s unwillingness to support an all-out war against Iran was very, very well known before Trump launched the war in February. For pity’s sake, Trump rode it to the GOP nomination in 2016!
Iran’s nukes forever! Huzzah!
I’m determined to not get upset over MOU for the very thing that Neo said at the start. Trump is (deliberately) mercurial and he seems to enjoy watching everyone (both sides) state confidently that they “know” what he is doing and why. I don’t know and neither do they. I take solace in the fact that Trump can always come back after the elections and bomb them to atoms if they double-cross him which they’re most assuredly capable of. Almost like it’s a DNA thing with them. Or did that start after the Carter-sanctioned revolution?
Maybe it’s something as simple as stalling till we replenish our munitions supply and/or till Israel gathers more intelligence on the ground. Who knows?
”At the moment, this appears to rank up there with Biden’s retreat from Afghanistan – or worse. I hope I’m overreacting.”
I won’t say so just yet, but it’s not looking good.
Trump: I mean they [Iran] have to have some (ballistic missiles) because other people have some, you [they] gotta have some…what am I gonna do, let Saudi Arabia have missiles but they [Iran] can’t have them?’
My mind just boggles at the idiocy of Trump’s statement there.
Considering that Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal led directly to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, if this deal really is as bad as it currently appears it wouldn’t be an overreaction to fear that this might lead to a Russian invasion of the Baltics or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
I guess we have to wait until Friday, but initial indications are not good.
Trump has signed the MOU remotely. I can’t find the text for the time being. I’m not clear if it’s an official signing.
_______________________________
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/iran-deal-signing-text-release
–Fox News, “BREAKING: Trump SIGNS copy of Iran deal during dinner at Versailles”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79rkZ7rOE5k
_______________________________
It does sound like Trump is allowing funds to be released to Iran and for Iran to keep ballistic missiles. OTOH he seemed rather blasé when asked what happens if Iran doesn’t hold to agreements. He shrugged and said we’ll just go back to dropping rockets on their heads.
I don’t know what to think. It still seems possible this is just kabuki to get the Straits open, gas prices down, and a better economy for the midterms. Then Iran will break agreements and it’s back to war.
In the meantime Iran’s economy gets worse and the people grow more restive.
huxley:
They can grow plenty restive, but if they don’t have the weapons and will to fight it really won’t change anything.
Trump seems determined to prove his critics right. Of course, he often does that in more trivial ways – with insults and silly claims. But this is far more serious. If he’s got some master plan, he’s certainly disguised it very effectively by acting convincingly casual and almost ridiculous about this.
I don’t think he has a master plan at all. It didn’t work out as he’d hoped, and he thinks he’s cutting his losses. But at this point it seems like utter incompetence.
It’s not like I know for sure; I certainly don’t. But I would be very surprised if he pulls anything good out of this one.
My take: not much has changed except we will allow Iranian ships through the blockade as long they behave themselves and don’t attack other shipping, the rest is contingent on negotiation. Some folks are very upset, but I don’t know what they expected. What I find interesting is that there might be an government emerging in Iran, there seems to be some consolidation in support of the negotiating faction.
The only change from the current status that is not contingent on future negotiations is Iranian help in opening the SOH, and even that is contingent in that the US blockage shutdown is phased. The current pause in military action is extended, but that is not a change, just more of the same. The only direct money that Iran can get is by selling oil. If Iran uses their own ships and they put to sea, then they are essentially hostage to good behavior. Israel is not part of the MoU, which Iran wants to argue about, but I don’t think they have any leverage there. I really don’t see what everyone is shouting about, this is at best a beginning, and at worst a nothing.
“Considering that Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal led directly to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine” – mkent
You have some secret intelligence on that?
Seems like anxiety is overriding the 96 hour rule.
Charles R Harris and Chazzand are getting near some of my thoughts about this. One great advantage of the MOU that advances our side is it will establish who is who in the current ruling class of Iran.
We appear to have killed so many of them there is considerable doubt as to who can actually carry through any kind of deal with us.
And who won’t.
This will smoke them out.
Maybe that is the whole point!
Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow…
The troll, now “Mollycoddle,” has nothing but time on its hands.
It could just FOAD.
Yep. This is just what I have been suggesting for a month. Trump took an outrageous risk. It didn’t pay off, so now he’s liquidating and moving on. It’s how the man operates.
It also means that he screws everybody eventually. He screwed fiscal conservatives a long time ago. He’s screwed the pro-lifers with mail-order abortion pills. He screwed the America-firsters by launching the foreign war that he promised not to. Now he’s screwing national security conservatives by, most likely, putting Iran on a glide path to nukes and actually making Obama’s JCPOA look good!
I’m still absolutely flabbergasted that so many GOP primary voters were willing to get on this train again in 2024. But on this train we are, and there’s no clean way off until 2029. I have a very bad feeling about this.
Iran’s harassment of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz isn’t going to ‘destroy the world economy’. Jacobsen needs to get a grip.
Again, Neo needs to call in a pest controller. They’re coming out of the baseboards now.
And I don’t mean Bauxite. While many of us don’t agree with him, he’s not a troll and deserves a bit more respect than gratuitous insults. I see enough of that for any slightly to right conservative posts on the left FB page I monitor.
My thoughts on the MOU:
The Iranians are going to routinely ignore any obligations, and we are going to routinely bomb them.
Agree with Amadeus. Previous administrations watched Iran do dangerous stuff, some including breaking various agreements and did nothing. If that’s the case going forward, this is a bad deal. Trump isn’t reluctant to get kinetic. So…either the bad stuff doesn’t happen or it gets a hefty bombing campaign. I suspect at that time, the public position will be, “For heaven’s sake, we gave them EVERYTHING and still they cheated!” It would be different if we tightened the screws to the point that some factory making small arms ammo got bombed one morning as a school bus went past or something because we weren’t paying attention to the brass shipments.
Now we can’t be accused of starving the poor, innocent Iranians.
We left ballistic missiles because those clowns can’t resist shooting them at somebody and that will give us a highly visible reason–“we gave them everything and they’re STILL pointlessly attacking their neighbors!”–is a more saleable reason than a suicide bomber in a beat-up truck with no citizenship papers in his back pocket.
Have to keep the Iranian people in mind. Want them to be on our side, whichever way things go initially. If they see the regime getting everything they asked for and still screwing up and screwing them, less sympathy for the home team. And it would give the dems one less reason to submarine our efforts, or at least one less public selling point about submarining our efforts.
One may hope.
Should say I don’t see what Iran had to buck Trump with. Making the Strait inhospitable can only last so long. Then what?
The word from our military-industrial complex is that replacing the Iran-expended munitions will take 5-6 years. So we are running out of stuff (bombs, missiles) to throw at Iran. Or anyone else.
Richard Aubrey – Trump’s reluctance to get “kinetic” again is a big reason that he just signed such a bad deal.
Victor Davis Hanson with a clear-eyed view of the Iran situation. I may post this to the “open” thread today as well.
https://amgreatness.com/2026/06/18/iran-war-misconceptions/
CC™-R alleges that The Great Orange Whale stole his milk money (it was a nickel for a little carton back in the last century).
He gets the respect he (CC™-R) has earned over the years.
Regarding ordnance stockpiles, that has been a point of concern even before the Roosian war on Ukraine.
Trillions pissed away for Learing Centers and Medicare/Medicare fraud, but why worry about icky things used to kill brown people and enforce global hegemony? (sarc)
The problem with the “running out of missiles” narrative is that Russia and China can count, and they have more accurate information about our missile stockpiles than what legacy media gets from anonymous leakers trying to shape a narrative.
So I have a hard time believing it’s as dire as “running out”. What I think more likely is that there is some level of stockpile which still lets us do something like defend Taiwan or something. We wouldn’t want to run below that reserve level, obviously, and it could take time to build up enough to have them for Iran or whatever.
See cdrsalamander on Substack if you want serious discussion of ordnance requirements for a potential war with the CCP.
It is sobering.
And ships are not available …..
A full-scale conflict with the PRC will shake the foundations of the Earth.
Deprast at 8:43 this morning said something I’ve been thinking about, without myself impugning Hegseth: how hard did we go after Iranian speedboats, mine-placing capacity and sea drones in the early days? Why didn’t we make securing the strait one of our top priorities, even higher than decapitation, maybe?
It does seem terribly careless to have left Iran this chance to reconfigure control of the strait. Perhaps, though, that sets the bar too high—perhaps there was never a good way to wrest control of the strait from Iran. If so, this deal ain’t such a disaster.
In any case, the war will most likely be resumed in earnest after the election.
To the extent that “the word from our military-industrial complex is that replacing the Iran-expended munitions will take 5-6 years” means that “we are running out of stuff (bombs, missiles) to throw at Iran.”
In WWII, we were running out of battleships after Pearl Harbor . . .
Think about exactly what has been done, it’s not good for elections but wonderful for the nation.
SENNACHERIB – We basically traded our Iranian sanctions regime for whatever damage was done to Iran’s military, and nothing more. (The Strait of Hormuz was open before the war, so reopening it can’t honestly be counted as a war objective.)
We have not achieved our objectives with respect to Iranian missiles or with respect to the Iranian nuclear program. Indeed, as the sanctions are going to be eased or maybe even eliminated, Iran will now have additional moneys to rebuild their military, their missiles, and the nuclear program. They will also understand, acutely, that there’s a pretty good reason that we didn’t do this to North Korea and that, if they don’t want us to do this again, they should become like North Korea as soon as possible.
This is wonderful for the nation how?
And to those suggesting that we’re going to start bombing again, what of this scenario?
We start bombing again. Iran closes Hormuz again. Then what? Remember that Trump just negotiated away most (all?) of our sanctions regime.
Iran closes Hormuz again.
Again? Iran doesn’t even have Hormuz closed now. Please keep up.
We still have options, we can take Kharg Island, blockade them, and try to organize other Arab nations against them, We can still choke their access to the financial world
Apparently there are high pressure projects to design new weapons systems that can be manufactured more quickly, and with AI the new designs will be much better.
This may turn out to be a valuable wakeup event. Military procurement had become a mess of distributed manufacturers selected with far too much political input.
Charles R Harris – So Iran never closed Hormuz? They why did the price of gasoline go up so much and how, pray tell, did our strategic petroleum reserves come within a few weeks of being exhausted, as Trump just admitted at the G7?
I’m just living in reality, man. You should come on over. It’s scary as heck, but a lot less surprising than living the MAGA delusion.
Richard Illyes – In other words, we have future options that haven’t been developed yet and other options that Trump just deemed too costly to undertake when we were actually in a state of war with Iran.
We’re not going to just periodically resume bombing to enforce this agreement. That’s just reality.
CC™-R can’t conceive that sanctions can be reimposed or ordnance can be delivered again.
CC™-R tries so hard to put The Great Orange Whale into his own little aquarium. The perils of a small obsessed mind.
om – Ben Rhodes is calling. He wants his talking points back.
The pain we inflicted on Iran (sanctions, bombing, blockade), Iran could tolerate.
The pain Iran inflicted on us (S of H, Gulf facilities), we could not tolerate.
Therefore, Iran came out on top in this coercive negotiation,
and the M of U reflects that.
I wish that wasn’t true.
CC™-R is such a tool, Ben Rhodes? Did Ben Rhodes and BHO do anything to impeded Iran’s enrichment of uranium?
Anything?
Maroon.
And to what Iran and the US can tolerate, well it ain’t over yet. But sack cloth and ashes are the in thing this week. Carry on.
So Iran never closed Hormuz?
Did I say that? No, I didn’t. Please learn to read. Moron.
Charles Harris – So your point is that we need not worry about Iran closing Hormuz if we bomb again in the future because it’s open now? That’s brilliant!
Someone is a moron here. It’s not me.
Charles R. Harris:
Please omit gratuitous insults like “moron.” It’s not a good look.
Would be great if we could assassinate the bad guys and destroy weapons without affecting the avg Iranian citizen, like in the movies. Does avg citizen blame the mullahs, or the USA for their pain and suffering?
Gemini :
Skyrocketing Prices on Basic Goods
While the overall inflation metric sits near 77%, the point-to-point price hikes for essential everyday needs have exceeded 113.8%:
Cooking Oil: Up 430% compared to last year.
Eggs: Up 345%.
Rice: Up 287%.
Bread and Cereals: Up 142%.
Milk: Up 139%.Meat: Up 117%, turning red meat into a luxury that millions cannot afford.
fullmoon:
For those metrics – compared to what starting date?
So many opinions! All of them seem, however, to be critical of Trump. Either he should have just bombed the Iranians back to the stone age (likely resulting in the deaths of thousands of people whose only participation in the hostilities was having the misfortune to have been born in Iran) or he should have never done anything (with the result that Iran would have obtained enough fissile material to construct a nuclear weapon as well as having the means to deploy it at distance) and everything in between. Which of all the critics of Trump would change places with him? Who wants to be the president that historians name as the one who “pointlessly slaughtered innocent Iranians,” or perhaps, “allowed the mullahs to acquire the atom bomb they used on Tel Aviv?” Yeah, I didn’t think so. Who was it said, “Everybody’s a critic”? Teddy Roosevelt knew a little about “The Man in the Arena,” which I suggest should be required reading at this stage in developments. As for Israel, I support it in its fight with the fanatic islamic jihadis and hope they kill every one of them, but how and when exactly did Trump become the President/Prime Minister of Israel? And before I catch any flak for this, allow me to say that I would be perfectly happy with the annihilation of every islamic jihadi on the face of the globe, within or outside of Iran but too many of my fellow “Americans” seem to not be on the same page with me. Trump is president of a country that is deeply divided and frankly, on the verge of a potential civil war, depending on what he does. I’m willing to cut Trump a whole lot of slack and wait out the next sixty days to see what ACTUALLY HAPPENS insead of predicting doom and defeat. How about you?
Steve (Retired/recovering lawyer):
I don’t see a lot of “bomb them into the Stone Age” sentiment here.
What I do see is frustration that we didn’t pressure them more economically, for example, or that there wasn’t a better plan for the Straits, and that the agreement seems naive. I also believe most people will indeed wait and see and will be happy to be proven wrong if things go better than they expect. But right now people are going to react to the agreement and the shock of and disappointment at what it appears to give up.
@NEO- Reminds me of Biden days when shoppers were checking receipts, certain there must have been a mistake
The war broke out following mass protests and a severe economic downturn in late December 2025. Since the onset of military conflict, inflation has consistently broken historic records month-over-month:Late 2025 (Pre-War Baseline): Annual inflation hovered around 48.6% to 50.8%.February 2026: Point-to-point inflation reached 68.1% with a 9.4% monthly jump.March 2026: Point-to-point inflation climbed further to 71.8%.May 2026: The annual consumer price index peaked at 77.2%, increasing 8.5% from April alone
https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1HKFL_enUS1202US1202&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&amc=1&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqFQgAEAAYQhi0AhjqAhjwBRieBhjKBjIVCAAQABhCGLQCGOoCGPAFGJ4GGMoGMhUIARAAGEIYtAIY6gIY8AUYngYYygYyFQgCEAAYQhi0AhjqAhjwBRieBhjKBtIBCjI1MjUyajBqMzGoAgOwAgE&oq=&udm=50&cud=0&qsubts=1781820476222&source=chrome.crn.rb&cru=1&ccb=1&cs=0&hl=en-US&biw=989.4116821289062&bih=462.3529052734375&mtid=xFE0aruSJY2Bm9cPtIzPmQM&atvm=2&mstk=AUtExfDqtXKh8r9RWCbLtRupFV_4WPduYZlfBVQZ43I0nDwTqmug0XvcqO3e0vp1uuJtzEB_6XYXjKe0TmpebmVM6Xhb6b_rnti41XRJJyYI50irs74pw2LwJ4q-O_s2S5xawRZgHqCf8iO1EhK0D7-XEilH7FfM4ZexDcs&csuir=1&aep=26&q=Iran+Inflation+Rate+Since+War&ved=0CAQQ2_wOahcKEwiIz7jF5pGVAxUAAAAAHQAAAAAQDg
But right now people are going to react to the agreement
They aren’t reacting to the agreement, they are reacting to what they think is the agreement. I have never seen so many normally rational people go bat shit crazy over nothing.
Charles R Harris:
“Bat shit crazy,” Shirley, you don’t mean Bauxite, aka, CC™-R?
Funny but I haven’t seen fullmoon’s prices, even for gasoline in Washington state (eastern WA).
Signing it at Versailles was funny.
Compiègne would have been better.
Serious people who don’t live in echo chambers saw this coming months ago and planned accordingly.
Accurate prediction posted on MARCH 10.
https://policytensor.substack.com/p/why-the-us-is-facing-strategic-defeat
Many more such cases and analyses. All you had to do was look for serious quantitative analysts and not commentators paid by the word to manipulate and coddle sensitive egos.
Even that bumbling fool Trump likely knew by March 10. Why else did he send Little Marco the Narco out to casually drop lines to the effect that ‘We did it because Israel was going to start it anyway and drag us in.’
Charles R. Harris:
They are reacting to the wording of the 14 points as released by the White House the other day, not just the MSM reports. That’s not 100% complete but it’s quite official and it’s not people’s imaginations.
And as I said, most people are willing to change their minds if things turn out better. But there’s nothing wrong with reacting to the information that is fairly official at this point.
fullmoon:
Ah, so you’re talking about inflation in IRAN.
Which has been mega-high for a long long time, not just since the war.
From Google AI (based on a site called Statista):
Charles R. Harris:
Rubio explained this way:
Now, you may think that’s BS. But that was his full explanation. And Trump – who may also have been BS-ing (I think he was) – said that it was Trump who forced Israel’s hand.
However, you are mischaracterizing what people here have been saying about the war. There may be some commenter who’s been continually optimistic and thinking all would work out, but most people have been trepidatious and quite aware it was a risky endeavor. In particular, if regime change didn’t happen – and it was always an unlikely result – it could all be for naught and possibly counter-productive. One thing most people here were pretty sure of was that there would not be boots on the ground. But otherwise, there has always been a general acknowledgement here that this endeavor was risky, and that we were not getting a lot of information on what was really going on.
When there is a conflict in which there are people predicting victory, people predicting defeat, and others predicting something in-between, some of them are going to end up being correct.
Even now there are people out there (although many fewer than before) predicting that this will still end up okay. I am not one of them. But you know what? I hope they’re right; I just don’t believe they are.
Neo yes. But actually go and read the article. Will take you 5 minutes at most.
To establish the epistemic value of the author’s givens and priors might take an hour or a day of cool-headed research.
Mentioned this because it needs to be understood that gentlemen like V D H are not serious analysts of modern warfare and geostrategy.
For a start, he needs his gig at Hoover. He does not have FU money and would probably die in short order if were to be defenestrated for going against the Neocon Line and taken off their health plan.
That’s just one individual. Many more such cases where livelihoods depend upon following the party line.
When the game is afoot, look to more disinterested analyses and also the Hedge Fund types who monitor closely strategic petroleum reserve draw downs and check overhead imagery of tanker transits and don’t blindly believe the latest from Trump on Truth Social. It was all there to be seen for those who could look.
The search for scapegoats will proceed apace, certainly. But failure was baked in from the very beginning.
IMHO the USA is getting out of this relatively lightly, given the literal perfidy of the initial attack which killed the Ayatollah and much of his extended family during what was a Truce. Perhaps you had forgotten, but the Iranian negotiators had agreed to most terms and were told things looking OK and see you in Geneva on Monday. Then kaboom. The rest is history.
Regarding Satellite Imagery:
It was possible from very early on in the war to view third party (*) imagery of buildings and ships at sea, even sometimes aircraft in flight(!).
The aircraft in flight is really interesting but just comes down to rapid advances in AI image processing.
Not trivial to stop satellites getting optical imagery so everyone just has to deal with this reality.
So, anyone interested could SEE where the USN assets were and where they were not. And where they were NOT was (you guessed it) anywhere near the Strait of Hormuz. They were making donuts way out in the Arabian Sea. The several times one or two Arleigh Burkes were sent closer to test the Iranians they were locked onto, given radioed warnings (all online) and reversed course.
And of course could also see what tankers were getting in and out: nearly all of those were Iranian approved ones hugging the Iranian coastline before moving into Pakistani waters and proceeding to wherever. Now the USN looked at one point like might try to institute a blockade in the Sunda Strait, but never did. Probably didn’t want to take on the PLAN. Wise. Very wise.
Interesting strategic considerations going forward. If Chinese commercial satellites can track naval surface fleets (trivially) and aircraft in flight (harder but every month becoming easier — what happens to airborne nuclear command posts?), might want to think about what classified abilities exist.
Might have been a mistake to spend the last 30+ years cavorting in the sandpit. Might have been smarter to do other things. Might be a bit hand-wavy to imagine that executive fiat today could turn this ship around on a dime. Might be looking at 10-20 years of rebuilding at Manhattan Project type intensity just to have table stakes in the Great Game. Who knows? But it’s a wake up call for sure.
Again, it was all there. No cherry-picking winning hands after the game. Plenty of wise heads called it well in advance.
* Mostly from Chinese private commercial imagery firms. Of course USGov and its subject nations would not permit companies under their jurisdictions to do likewise. So the Chinese were happy to sell to quant funds, etc. In fact one firm posted much of its product on X for free publicity to draw sales.
The TDS afflicted are almost orgasmic about the Trump defeat by the Mullahs. I think the effort was correct and things may work out much better because of it.
The Trump plan might actually work and bring stability. Probably not, but the experiennce is a valuable wakeup call. Nothing else would have done it.
It appears that we are dangerously exposed to inability to make weapons as needed. That is apparently being addressed in ways that it would not have otherwise.. With AI we now can design weapons easy to build and much better than we had before. Our weapon systems are decades old, and the explosion of processor technology and AI will support dramatically better systems.
We now have a lot of experience on how to handle the next Iranian conflict, and the next time with new weapons will be much more successful.
I think Trump and his advisors know what they are doing.
Hot Air’s David Strom presents the counterargument to his earlier pessimistic take on Trump’s Iran Deal. Turning to two level-headed people @CynicalPublius and @ConceptualJames for their more optimistic comments, the argument they make is that most of us don’t see the deal as Trump does and that Trump is perfectly comfortable with the reality that the deal will is just a vehicle to get what he wants and will change as necessary.
In my view, there’s still much to be learned about how this will work and how well Trump’s desire to get the neighboring Muslim states to take more ownership of the Islamic Republic problem ie the Straits, the $300B investment fund, etc.
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2026/06/18/the-counterargument-to-my-pessimism-on-iran-n3816094
Charles R. Harris:
Most people here did not think this could be “turned around on a dime.” I certainly have never thought anything of the sort, and most commenters here have likewise been wary.
And what one thinks about it today depends what one expected of this. I always thought regime change was an unlikely thing and very difficult to achieve. Did I hope it could be achieved? Of course. But I didn’t see how, if the regime was determined to kill people who tried, and the people are almost entirely disarmed. And I thought that, without regime change, the results would not be effective in changing all that much that was important.
The details of the military action are still unclear. The Strait of Hormuz was long known to be the Iranian leaders’ trump card, as it were, and that has turned out to be true. Even now, no one knows the ultimate result of this action in Iran. You think you do. I don’t think you do, and I certainly don’t think I do. But yes, in retrospect, someone will turn out to have been right.
Someone has hijacked my name.
Which is the real Charles R Harris?
One is a long winded, hand wavey, self assured spouter of “insidey” knowledge.
The other took issue with some Bauxite blather. That was before Mr. Tome showed up.
I suspect some trollery from the bloviator who would agree with Bauxite’s assessment of President Trump, and also threw some cheap shot snark at Marco Rubio. This Charles R Harris is a sockety puppet.
“Someone has hijacked my name.”
Obviously, and not unobserved
Computer glitch?
”Someone has hijacked my name.”
Heh. I thought he sounded a tad bit like our recent troll but using one of his “nice” sock puppets.
He sounds like a more-winded version of one of the trolls at Instapundit who probably followed one of Sarah Hoyt’s links here. If he’s the same guy he’ll sound reasonable for a while but will inevitably descend into Jew hatred.
PS: After reading some of his other comments in other threads, I’m pretty sure it’s the same guy.
More trollery and sock puppetry, this time “George R R Martin.”
Oops, my bad.
I would expect Iran could sell thousands of these notes for five dollars each on e-bay and recover some of their losses.
I have a 1,000.00 afganistan “dollar” bill found under the seat of a used car I bought.
A 1.5 million rial note would be fun.
“Currency Collapse: The Iranian rial has entered a hyper-devaluation cycle. Having traded at 32,000 to $1 USD in 2015, the rial cratered to over 1.7 million to $1 USD by mid-2026.”
Same style from the sock puppet drawer.
Almost sounds like the banned Can Do! racist anti-semitic Zaphod.
He loved to have deep philosophical conversations with DNW. But he would soil his nappies and of course was oh so much smarter than the average bear. A big investment or financial wizard from Hong Kong, after fleeing The Dark Continent.
Most folks thought it fun to engage with him as he said the most outrageous (evil) things.
fullmoon:
Like Germany between the wars.
om:
Yes. Not “almost,” though.
Neo
“Like Germany between the wars.”
Bring your wheelbarrow!
“German Hyperinflation Made A Loaf of Bread Cost 200 Billion Marks in 1923”
Granted, it was a large loaf of excellent Pumpernickel, but still…
https://www.historydefined.net/
Charles R. Harris– I looked at the article by Anusar Farooqui and wondered about some of his data, you know, GIGO. Ryan McBeth doesn’t think much of it either.
It is true with the Iranian model of dispersed authority, Iran can continue drone attacks, but it has decreased well below rates Farooqui is claiming.
Iran’s 5,000 Drones a Month? Here’s Why That’s Fake
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv64arOPMhY
fullmoon:
When I was a young child I learned about the German inflation that had occurred during the wars because my brother had a stamp collection with some of those million-mark stamps.
Neo,
Those stamps would be great to have, for fun.
Gets even better.
“November 1923 (The Peak): The currency completely collapsed. The exchange rate skyrocketed to 4.2 trillion marks to $1 US Dollar.”
Seriously, how did Germans pay living expenses when money was worthless?
During the height of the 1923 hyperinflation crisis, Germans acquired living necessities primarily through barter networks, possession liquidation, immediate spending frenzies, and alternative localized currencies. When the German paper mark became entirely valueless, the formal cash economy collapsed and was replaced by physical survival strategies
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+did+germans+aquire+living+neccessities+in+1923+when+money+was+worthless&rlz=1C1HKFL_enUS1202US1202&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&amc=1&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCjQ1Mzc3ajBqMzGoAgOwAgHqBwoIARAAGAAgACgA&oq=how+did+germans+aquire+living+neccessities+in+1923+when+money+was+worthless&udm=50&aep=42&cud=0&qsubts=1781839021713&source=chrome.crn.rb&cru=1&ccb=1&cs=0&hl=en-US&biw=989.4116821289062&bih=462.3529052734375&mstk=AUtExfAonzRa70irAOkNGV5jEUPUwoYbQi8dBarsmnNbK7ADo2XU2oQ0dzJJ6cO9YpPVetulsutW80LtWC791tJycdfBY-gxnQDB0ey4NsTtviQdfnblj70g_nYR93t2wmiBHqdPA39Qwz5t2OX4M3kPANNqQyfkkG35eVA&csuir=1&mtid=q7Q0ar7xD42Bm9cPtIzPmQM
Don’t have time to read all these at the moment, but for those of you panicking, watch the JD Vance White House briefing today.
It set the record straight, so I hope people stop parroting the msm lies.
To wit:
What will happen is the SOH open immediately and Iran allowed to sell oil. This is a big Trump strategic win to prepare the playing field for the mid terms, which is much more critical at the moment. We MUST retain control of Congress. Full stop.
What won’t happen before an actual agreement ( vs MOU) is in place and only if and as Iran honors it’s commitments is:
– no release of frozen Iranian assets
– no investment by anybody
– in any event, no US contribution to the possible $300B investment fund that is imagined. People see USD and don’t realize that’s just the notional denomination of the funds, not the source.
Iran’s nuclear capability is crushed, as are its conventional forces. That was the clear objective of the war. There is no going back on Iran will not have a nuclear enrichment capability or be allowed to purchase nukes. That is very clear. People are not seeing that in the wording of the MOU and misinterpreting it in a big, negative way. We’ve given up nothing, we still have every bit of leverage we had before the MOU, we now have the Arab nations allied with us, and either Iran behaves, or the screws get put back on militarily and economically.
Meanwhile oil is dropping fast, gas prices are getting reset and inflation will have peaked. Getting energy costs down cuts the legs out from inflation. It is fundamental to the price of everything we consume, whether it be goods or services. This should give a big shot in the arm to our midterm chances. That matters more than dropping another bomb or ten on Iran.
Bill, you’re delusional. We had no leverage before the MoU because we were either unwilling or unable to take further military actions that Iran feared. So, yes, you are correct. We have the same leverage that we did before the deal. . . almost none.
I don’t know why we were not willing or able to take further military action. Maybe munitions really did run low. Maybe the Gulf states didn’t like having their own energy infrastructure destroyed by Iranian missiles and applied pressure to us in other ways. Maybe Trump was unwilling to accept more than cursory levels of American casualties. Maybe an operation to open the strait would have put US naval vessels in range of Iranian missiles.
But, in the end, the why doesn’t matter, only the what. And the what is that Trump was either unwilling or unable to take additional military action against Iran. After 10 weeks of bluster and an often one-sided “ceasefire,” this was clear to anyone with eyes to see. You can’t spend 10 weeks broadcasting your own weakness to the world and then expect to negotiate a great deal.
In all seriousness, let’s take your assertion that Iran only gets the financial windfall if the honor the rest of the deal. (They’re already failing to honor the deal because Hezbollah continues to attack Israel- further talks in Switzerland were postponed this morning.) What happens after that? What are we going to do to motivate the Iranians to comply? And if we weren’t willing or able to do it earlier in the war, why would we be willing or able to do it now? Do you really think that Trump is going to risk another oil price shock before the mid-terms? (Do you really think the Iranians don’t know that?)
Bauxite. As regards the oil price and mid terms, I repeat, the most potent opponent to US success in foreign policy is the democrat party. Trump can’t afford to give them any ammo.
The key will be what happens after the mid terms. What happens then will reflect what the admin is actually going to do long term (defined as until the presidency is held by dems).
Meantime, Fernandez’ Three Conjectures hangs over us and the Muslims in general.
As predicted, the MoU is being understood by Hezbullah as—officially—giving them carte blanche against the Zionist enemy (which MUST, of course, be obliterated)…
“Opening Round Of US-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed After Israel-Lebanon Clashes Erupt”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/opening-round-us-iran-nuclear-talks-postponed-after-lebanon-clashes-erupt
Continued:
“Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz closed again after US lifts blockade“—
https://nypost.com/2026/06/19/world-news/iran-declares-the-strait-of-hormuz-closed-again-after-us-lifts-blockade/
This post by Clayton Wood is pretty much the same as my take, but much more detailed and better written. Warning, it’s on facebook.
Barry Meislin – Just understand that Iran is so unafraid of Trump’s “leverage,” such as it is, that they’re running a power play so we pressure Bibi to give Hezbollah freedom to attack Israel without response.
Under the category of “Trump screws over all of his allies, eventually” spare a thought for Bibi.
Israel may consider simply going to a more direct tit-for-tat again: for every Hezbollah strike, return to taking out another IRGC chief in Teheran, pipeline on Kharg, or factory in Mashad. High pain consequence ideally.
Richard Aubrey – I completely agree with you about Democrats. That’s the primary reason that I’m so exasperated by Trump. Unpopular tariffs. Unpopular retaliatory lawfare. Unpopular mid-decade redistricting. Turning his most potent issue into a liability by appointing an incompetent, trollish, publicity hound as HHS secretary. An unpopular war that popped gas prices up in the first place. An unpopular peace that doesn’t achieve any of the pre-war goals. A handling of the Epstein mess so spectacularly incompetent that Democrats are now using that issue against him! The list could go on.
Instead of governing to keep power, Trump decided on the ultimate YOLO presidential term. He is the GOP’s problem that can’t be removed.
The House is as good as gone. The GOP will be lucky to hold the Senate. Getting gasoline back under $4 gallon is more about keeping a blue wave from turning into a blue tsunami (and that’s assuming that Trump can even do that, given that Iran is already re-blocking Hormuz again as of this morning).
It’s time to start thinking about mitigating the damage that Trump does over the next four years and finding a best path forward from 2028 onwards.
The Great Orange Whale continues to have free access to Bauxite’s brain.
But mostly he stole Bauxite’s milk money.
The IRGC said the strait was closed but other Iranian spokesmen said it wasn’t. No matter what, Bauxite believes and spouts whatever is “worst” for The Great Orange Whale.
sdferr – That might make sense, but Trump desperately needs Hormuz to remain open for the midterms, and Iran has made it pretty clear that, if Hormuz is to be open, Hezbollah has to be in the clear. Bibi can (and probably should) do what you suggest, but he’s going to come under a lot of pressure from the Trump administration. Vance is already telegraphing this move.
Will Trump threaten an arms embargo of Israel? It wouldn’t shock me.
Of course om. Iran hasn’t closed Hormuz again. They just sent a message over maritime radio saying that, “[a]ll ships are requested, for the sake of their security and safety, not to approach the Strait of Hormuz. Any vessel that defies this directive will be targeted.” That’s totally not closing the strait. How foolish of me.
https://nypost.com/2026/06/19/world-news/iran-declares-the-strait-of-hormuz-closed-again-after-us-lifts-blockade/
Bottom line – if we actually had leverage, the Iranians wouldn’t be jerking us around like this.
Bauxite has found a new target:
Robert Kennedy Jr.
Who is next Bauxite? Each and every agency head appointed by President Trump and approved by Congress?
President Trump, aka, The Great Orange Whale, will forever swim in your head Bauxite.
Moroon.
Any IRGC terrorist with a radio is to be feared by Bauxite. Who is “us” Bauxite, that guy in your mirror?
Maroon.
om – Homeland Security, not HHS. I was referring to Noem. My mistake.
Bauxite:
Don’t let that stop you, you can still attack Mark Wayne Mullin.
“Diplomacy is itself a form of warfare/competition by subtler means.” – Zhou Enlai
The MoU is not the deal. It’s a ceasefire with benefits.
Ben Shapiro doesn’t like it, thinks is the wrong thing to do and won’t survive, let alone modified into a real agreement. Looking at the grammar of the document it seems as if the US said give us Hormuz and the Dust and then give us your wish list.
– Ben Shapiro
The 60 day beginning negotiations will take us to the end of August, where the mid-term campaigns begin in earnest. By then we’ll have decided the shape of the negotiating table. It took us 10 weeks with the Vietnamese. Another 60 day extension puts us very close to election day.
If the Iranians take the bait and open the strait in the next 30 days, prices will have stabilized and start inching down. The House may be saved. If the Democrats take the House, it will become the Impeachment House.
Yes, we’ll have given the Iranians money in the form of their oil sales and sanctions relief– but at the same time we’re tracing the labyrinth of their financial network that had been used to evade sanctions. In the grand scheme it’s a minor setback.
After the election, the real negotiations can begin.
om – I have no problem with the way Markwayne Mullin and Tom Homan are doing their jobs. Trump would be in much better shape right now if he had put them in charge immediately instead of the circus clowns he actually chose, like Noem, Corey Lewandowski, and Greg Bovino.