I’ve noticed a smattering of headlines lately in the MSM that seem to be saying that ending the lockdown has produced a spike in cases. I haven’t done more than skim a couple, because spikes in cases are meaningless to me, as I’ve said many times. The important stats involve hospitalizations and deaths.
So I was pleased to see this:
Democrats cite a spike in cases in Florida, Arizona and Texas as evidence of a virus resurgence. But more testing, especially in vulnerable communities, is naturally turning up more cases. Cases in Texas have increased by about a third in the last two weeks, but so have tests. About a quarter of the new cases are in counties with large prisons and meatpacking plants that were never forced to shut down…
Liberals and the media demanded more testing before states could reopen, yet now are criticizing states because more testing has turned up more cases. Keep in mind that New York has reported about the same number of new cases in the last two weeks as Florida, though it ramped up testing earlier so the relative increase appears less significant.
A more important metric is hospitalizations. In Arizona the weekly rolling average for new Covid-19 hospitalizations has been flat for a month. Emergency-room visits for Covid-19 have spiked this week, but the number of ER beds in use hasn’t changed since late April. Hospitals in Arizona (and California) have reported an increase in cases from U.S. citizens and green-card holders returning from Mexico where hospitals are overwhelmed. But with 22% of ICU beds and 62% of ventilators available, Arizona hospitals should have capacity to manage an increase in patients as it reopens.
Texas has also recently reported an uptick in Covid-19 hospitalizations, mostly in the Houston and Austin areas. Current Covid-19 hospitalizations are up about 20% since the state began to reopen, but Gov. Greg Abbott says hospitals aren’t overwhelmed and much of the increase is tied to nursing homes.
The above is actually from an article in the WSJ, to which I don’t have access. If you do, you might want to read the whole thing.
It doesn’t sound alarming, although I suppose that could change. And opening up business is the right thing to do, and in fact it was overdue.
But at this point I think very few people are paying attention to these statistics anymore. The medical authorities and the politicians who did what they said no longer have much if any credibility. They richly earned our lack of trust, and next time they won’t be believed. It’s possible that may even end up backfiring on all of us, I suppose. But that’s the way it is.
