AOC as a presidential candidate
I mentioned the other day that I think AOC’s candidacy for president is a distinct possibility for 2028 or 2032. I didn’t really explain why I say that, though, and so that’s what this post is about.
AOC is on the extreme left, or what used to pass for extreme. So was Obama, but he hid it fairly successfully, especially when campaigning for his first time. AOC doesn’t have that option. In that respect she’s more like Bernie Sanders, because she’s been fairly straightforward about her extreme leftism. In 2016, Democrat higher-ups blocked Sanders from winning the nomination when it looked as though he had a chance to do so, using their superdelegates to favor Hillary because they thought Bernie the outright socialist could not win in the general.
Like Bernie, AOC can’t hide who she is, but I think the party calculus has changed. How far has the Overton Window moved in the ensuing years? The party may believe a socialist could win by 2028. After all, Mamdani was elected mayor of New York City.
But New York City isn’t the US, and a 3-way mayoral race isn’t a 2-way presidential race. So I don’t know about AOC and the nomination, but I strongly believe it could happen. And if it does happen, Democrats will be counting on some or all of the following:
(1) Fraud will pull them over the line.
(2) AOC has appeal to two groups. The first is leftists, especially young ones. The Democratic Party is loaded with those. The second is those people who will never, never ever vote for a Republican and think that any Democrat is better than any Republican. Those two groups together make up a not insignificant percentage of the electorate. Enough to win, if turnout is good and they are highly motivated? I don’t know.
(3) Who are the alternative candidates in the party who would be viable in the general and who yet could appeal to the base enough to win the primaries? No one comes to mind.
The funny thing is that I think one good candidate would be Fetterman, because he could appeal to the moderate middle in the general, and yet yellow dog Democrats would also hold their noses and vote for him if he was the nominee. But Democrats will never nominate him because the base hates him and considers him a traitor to the party.
Why am I even thinking about 2028 at this point? Well, it’s not all that far off. I also saw excerpts of an AOC interview recently and it seems to me that she’s positioning herself for a future run. Actually, it’s seemed that way to me almost from the moment she first burst on the scene.
An excerpt:
The people in that room love her.
The Democratic Party is destructive. The inclination to be destructive is pervasive (though not usually as thorough and intense as it is in greater Minneapolis and some other loci). AOC would bother party paymasters like Omidyar, but she’s otherwise only marginally more destructive than the rest of them. She’ll get 96% of the vote some generic Democrat would get. Democratic voters are bereft of seriousness of mind and will vote for destruction.
AOC is no different from Biden; she would be President in name but she would not be in charge. People nobody voted for would be in charge, and Dems are completely fine with that, and so would be plenty of big corporations addicted to crony capitalism.
She did not put herself into the position she has now. Somebody paid for the expensive suits and photography and favorable media coverage in her first campaign; somebody told her how to get the paperwork done to put her boyfriend on the payroll after she was elected.
Do it. Please. Chompers was born with a silver hoof in her mouth and I’m for anything that keeps her braying.
Unwillin’
I would not be so sanguine. Neo’s points 1 and 2 tell the story. Nov 2028 is a long way away politically. If the Trump plan succeeds and the economy is humming and all these nasty international players are under control, then Rubio or Vance have a good shot. And with regard to Neo’s point 2: those that fall in to her second category that I know will be highly motivated as TDS morphs into RDS.
Sure, AOC can be nominated. The D-Party is that crazy these days. And they love to be in love with a candidate. AOC can do that.
However, politics aside, she is not that bright, not that clever and not that charismatic. She is not Obama by any means.
I think there has been a sea change in American politics plus a structural change in the money Democrats get to play with.
I imagine there will be baggage left behind by Trump 47. Nonetheless, I believe the MAGA wave has another four years left. Maybe more.
Act normal, no screaming, show cleavage, promise free stuff and legalized mj and get the youngsters who typically do not vote.
Not only is the presidential race not 3 way (although it does happen C.F. Wallace, Anderson, and Perot) but it is for electoral votes NOT popular votes. I think AOC will have a hard time winning over much of the red and purple regions, and she must have some of them to hit the 270 Electoral votes needed to win. AOC is also almost as tone deaf as VP Harris was. Is she a threat? Maybe, though an outlier of one unless we get a strong third party run or unless something catastrophic happens between now and November 2028. Of the extant democrats Virginia’s Spanberger is probably the closest in running to the likely Republican candidates (Vance or Rubio). I’d say Shapiro of Pennsylvania is better, except given the strong antisemitic parts of some of the Democrat base he is a no go.
AOC is on the extreme left, or what used to pass for extreme. So was Obama, but he hid it fairly successfully, especially when campaigning for his first time.
I saw Obama was just recently in Texas supporting this guy Talarico. They were trying to use that old Obama magic of “I’m just a regular guy and a blank screen. Paint your hopes and desires on my screen.”
Co-Pilot:
However, politics aside, she is not that bright, not that clever and not that charismatic. She is not Obama by any means.
I think there has been a sea change in American politics plus a structural change in the money Democrats get to play with. — huxley
For starters… Not that bright or clever. Those things can be somewhat subjective, though I’d agree. But, she has had no accomplishments whatsoever, outside of a degree and getting elected. I know I’m dreaming, but wouldn’t it be nice if there was a general consensus that all people elected to a higher office should actually have accomplished something of significance first???
Charismatic? I’m not sure. Maybe a little charismatic and kinda sexy. The good news is that I think sexy works better with a sexy male candidate working a female electorate, than the reverse case. But the young male electorate might be influenced by AOC’s hotness.
The Dem money machine is an interesting point. There have been some strong signs of frustration among the Dem donor class lately. I have no idea how that is washing or will wash out. My wild guess is that this is a religious issue for them and they will always cough up the money come election time.
I can’t wait until I stop hearing how “attractive” Ms. Donkey-teeth is.
It’s not clear to me that Obama can sell enough Texans on Talarico. Billed as a Christian, Talarico consistently expresses theological ideas contrary to what any ordinarily Christian Texan would accept.
“Sandy Cortez for President, looks better in pants suits!”
Ilhan Ohmar for VP.
Cortez/0hmar 2028 the SMOD ticket.
It was very telling that the Obama-Talarico appearance was at a small taco place right off the UT-Austin campus — weakly preaching to the converted won’t move that needle.
Kate,
Yes, some knowledgeable pundit, perhaps from Texas, said that that Talarico would be a super hard sell in Texas. The senate is a statewide election. I don’t know much about Texas, except that some of the big population centers like Huston and Austin (OK, not that big) are quite left of center.
The problem is that so many people don’t pay attention, and then they vote. So rather thin and frankly dishonest campaign appeals can work.
sharksauce,
You are right, I think, that it is telling. The thing they didn’t want was any belligerent push-back from people in the crowd. It’s all on camera and will no doubt be shown state-wide. It’s a big photo-op. But you gotta remember, it’s always a media campaign, and the door-to-door retail campaigning is pretty irrelevant to a state-wide campaign. It’s the people in Huston or similar places where they hope to move the needle with that video-op.
First, she is short and she has put on a few extra cuz she is not the youngster she was.
Second, Trump must finish off the donkey party. They intend to prosecute him, his family and his entire administration. So wipe them out.
The administration should start playing dirty. Send a message like
“There is no truth to the rumors that the administration has developed a kill list in case the President is assassinated. Like wise, rumors that former President Obama is number one on that list are completely false.”
I thought we were doomed when Clinton got elected, twice. Then we get Bush and Obama. Trump has been the least scary dude to occupy that office in my lifetime. But Trump as President has only become possible because AOC has as well. Yikes. And people wonder why I drink.
After Biden was elected I find it hard to dismiss anyone on the far left chances of winning.
Currently AOC is polling behind almost everyone but it’s still early. Several months ago she failed miserably in an interview while in Europe. They have kept her mostly out of sight since then.
How would an AOC – NEWSOM ticket play out?
The Incompetent (AOC) leading the Illiterate (Newsom) in 2028, but both “young” and photogenic (plastic).
FOAF (2:01 pm) said:
“I can’t wait until I stop hearing how ‘attractive’ Ms. Donkey-teeth is..”
FOAF, I find her sociopolitcal mindset repellent and I find her intellect (such as it is) to be, well, stunted at best. At very best.
But I do find her to be very physically attractive. Diff’rent strokes for diff’rent folks, eh?
I think she wants to be Pelosi and control the House for a generation.
No
No!
No no no
TommyJay: Houston and Austin are the 4th and 12th largest cities in the nation right now.
Then there’s San Antonio, Dallas, and Fort Worth: 7th, 9th, and 10th in the nation respectively.
That said, there’s thirty million people here and it’s overall still pretty red.
Beto had the advantage of being tall and looking like a Kennedy cousin, a clay figure that outside cash could mold to look electable. Plus his Senate run was against Ted Cruz who no one likes, not even Ted Cruz voters. I don’t think you’ll be hearing much more about James Talarico after this November.
I hope so, sharksauce.
Thought experiment: if/when the next SCOTUS justice retires, nominate Ted Cruz to the high bench. Would his fellow senators resist that nomination as claiming he is not qualified; or would they welcome that nomination to get him out of the Senate?
— R2L
Oh, as a hypothetical, that is a good question! I honestly don’t know.
I don’t support it in practice, because Cruz is needed where he’s at. But it’s a fascinating thought exercise!
Chases Eagle wrote
The administration should start playing dirty. Send a message like
“There is no truth to the rumors that the administration has developed a kill list in case the President is assassinated…”
That’s thinking outside of the box!
= = = = = = = =
A country which elected Clinton, Obama, and Biden* could conceivably elect AOC.
I might be reading the tea leaves wrong, but the reality is, Democrats have lost 2 of 3 presidential elections with the only win highly questionable. Democrats have rigged their Blue state elections to remain Blue for eternity it seems, everywhere else it’s an uphill battle because they are on the wrong side of most commonsense issues now.
M J R: “But I do find her to be very physically attractive. Diff’rent strokes for diff’rent folks, eh?”
I will acknowledge that she is more attratctive than Rosa DeLauro and Rashida Tlaib.
1. Attractiveness kinda cancels out – the young men she might pull have made a hard shift to the right based on economics and first-hand experience of caustic identity politics she promotes.
2. It’s a new world, with new rules. Trump has changed the information environment, the definition of success is now jobs and growth, and to a certain extent the Overton window for socialist handouts has shifted. The identity politics used to shut down critics has been discredited. The cultural conversation is now about equality and opportunity. It’s hard to be a Debbie Downer amid patriotism and prosperity.
Even without the SAVE act there has been significant public exposure of corruption and action by the Executive to close the major taps funding the machine. Trump has made it clear that he is playing to win and has primaried Republican squishes. Monitoring, scrutiny, and messaging about the election fraud has already begun and will only increase.
3. The slow-building Preference Cascade is trending in MAGA’s direction.
Doubts about the Left’s racial narratives, evidence of its failures, and revulsion at its more extreme expressions (such as the transing and sexualization of children) – all these have been building since Obama, through Trump1 and Biden.
The Left has confirmed normie doubts by dropping its liberal mask and going all-out nihilist – both in social issues and willingness to win “by any means” – a slogan that appalls all but True Believers or political critters.
Trump’s re-election was like Yeltsin’s Glasnost – it showed many people that they were not the only ones thinking these things.
The years of Trump2 have continued to expose the Left – and given more and more voters *permission* to agree with MAGA.
Many fence-sitters have now seen Trump in action, and can mentally compare this administration to Biden, Newsom, Walz, Abrams… The local, state-level revelations of corruption are less easy for low-info voters to ignore – and the issue of election fraud is IMO more vexing to fair-minded normies.
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The hard-core Marxist dems are increasingly isolated within their own echo chambers while more and more of the silent majority make a mental shift to MAGA – a shift that will only be measurable after the election, but is most definitely gaining momentum.
Whatever physical attraction Mx. Ocasio-Cortez may possess, it goes out the window the instant she begins to speak. Her nasaly, girlish vocalizations are enough to deflate any real man’s tumescence. Or, should be at least.
My neighbors really want our governor Bashir to be the nominee.
I think Neo does underestimate how good the information flow control can be nowadays. Several normies will probably vote for AOC because they’ll never know how crazy she is.
AOC is an arrested development case. That does not prevent you from being elected to high office in blue jurisdictions. See, for example, the current mayors of New York and Seattle.
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You have to ask what Democratic voters value. It is not what you value. Again, consider the 2020 nomination contest. You had four candidates who had founded and run prosperous businesses, you had two candidates who had experience as both business executives and public executives, and you had a state governor with a history of appealing to red state electorates. Their voters took a glance at Michael Bloomberg. The leading candidates for the nomination were Amy Klobberherworkers, Pete Buttbuddy, Princess Spreading Bull, an antique Trotskyist (who, unlike DJT, actually did dodge the draft), and Joe Biden. And they proceed to nominate the worst of the bunch – a thoroughly corrupt and mendacious hack who had no executive experience, had not had any private sector employment in nearly 50 years, and was disappearing into dementia. Now repair to 2016. All five announced candidates had been public executives at one time or another and three of them didn’t have any of the issues the two competitive candidates had; they were ignored. In 2008, only one candidate running had ever held an executive position (Bill Richardson); he was ignored. In 2004, you had two competitors (Gov Dean, Gen. Clark) with executive experience both of whom had prospered (to a degree) in trades outside politics; they trailed the likes of John Kerry and John Edwards. In 2000, their candidates were quite similar; they nominated the one who was implicated in the Lincoln Bedroom shenanigans. In 1992, they had in Bob Kerrey a candidate head and shoulders above almost anyone to seek the Democratic nomination in the last 60 years and they had in Jerry Brown an experienced executive who could think outside the box; the winner was Bilge Clinton.
AOC is no different from Biden; she would be President in name but she would not be in charge.
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AOC is not demented and she’s a head full of ideas (not informed by education or experience). She and Riley aren’t going to be lead around by White House staffers dressed as cartoon animals. (She may meet with a mess of noncompliance lower down. So did Trump and so did Obama when he wanted a plan to break up Citigroup drafted).
FOAF (3:41 am) said: “I will acknowledge that she [AOC] is more attratctive than Rosa DeLauro and Rashida Tlaib.”
Welllll, FOAF, it’s a step in the right direction. A teeny weeny baby step.
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Art Deco (1:12 pm) said: “AOC is an arrested development case. That does not prevent you from being elected to high office in blue jurisdictions. See, for example, the current mayors of New York and Seattle.”
Mamdani (NYC) is utter slime, but I’m not sure his is a case of arrested development (but he sure as h#ll is a case of *something* malevolent). I’m not sufficiently acquainted with the Seattle mayor, but I will nominate, as alternate cases of arrested development, governors Gavin Newsom and Tim Walz (CA and MN).
The employment history and family life of both Mamdani and Wilson indicate arrested development. About Walz, a passable wager is that his issue is alcoholism. Newsom isn’t an arrested development case. He owned and operated real business, has been married for 20-odd years, and has several children. His issue is general intellectual deficits and a complete absence of a public spirit. Which does not set him apart from other Democratic pols.
Burst on the scene. I see what you did there.