So, what went on between Trump and Xi during the China visit?
Hard to say exactly. Here are six points as the NY Post sees it:
1. Taiwan remains a flashpoint …
2. Xi shows willingness to help Trump on Iran [not with the war, but with keeping the Strait open] …
3. Trump teases trade deals and investment — though the summit was light on specifics …
4. Xi ‘open’ to opening up China for US business …
5. Pomp and pageantry reign supreme …
6. Trump and Xi built on their personal connections – but the US-China relationship could still go south
Points 5 and 6 are really just fillers. And of course, there may have been discussions behind the scenes that are not being revealed.
NOTE: Here is the perspective of Larry Kudlow:
Mr. Xi is bluffing [on Taiwan].
In recent weeks he has watched America end his influence in Venezuela, the Panama Canal, soon it will be Cuba, and of course Iran. I mean Communist China’s buying 90 percent of Iran’s oil and gas exports.
But with Mr. Trump’s air-tight blockade of Iranian ports, China is starving for energy. They might make a deal with us, but that too remains to be seen if it comes under Treasury Man Scott Bessent’s investment board idea.
And on top of all that, China’s economy has never recovered from the real estate property crash of a couple years ago. …
My point here is that while China has invested substantially in a strong military, their economy is malfunctioning and their political standing in the world is slipping badly.
All this reminds me of President Reagan and Gorbachev. The American economy was booming in the Reagan 1980s.
This seems somewhat optimistic to me. But, who knows?
And of course, if a Democrat president takes the helm, it all can change. Xi may be trying to wait it out while simultaneously trying to influence US elections in that direction.
I think it went something like “You stop selling Iran weapons under the table and we won’t sell them to Taiwan upon it. Let’s agree everything else is window dressing.” Overall pretty underwhelming IMO. Also, Xi is not bluffing on Taiwan, it’s just difficult for everyone else to tell because the Chinese have different time and horizon preferences. Taiwan isn’t a poker game.
Kudlow always seems somewhat optimistic to me. The NYT gleefully(?) reports that Iran is circumventing the blockade by a rail link to China. In another article I read that there are three trains per week between the two. I doubt that Trump worries excessively about that. There are three trains per hour, or thereabouts, in and out of the Port of LA; all carrying containers associated with Chinese Companies.
Trump should have told Xi, “Look, face it, you are not going to rule the world; but you have a very big pond right there within your borders. Nobody is threatening you–outside of your inner circle. You don’t need to be paranoid about your frontiers like the old Emperors were. Why don’t you just act nice, and be the Big Frog in your Big Pond? Meanwhile, we will do good trade deals. Your people will be happy. Your internal enemies will be frustrated,. And those who deserve to will live happily ever after.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Jimmy Lai, I take it, was not on AF1. How about the second captive? Not him either, we guess.
If China sends combat units to the strait, who’s the tactical commander? We’ll be slurping up each other’s tactical intel and weapons characteristics. Who comes out ahead. If we know everything already, we don’t need it as badly as China needs ours……
I’m wondering what the billionaires club led by Elon Musk were doing at the meeting.
I thought perhaps there would be big global industrial deals which would be win-win and make for a more stable world. Or try to.
Xi has fired something like 5 of his top military commanders in the last 3-4 months. His economy is only growing at 5% a year (I say “only” because the statistics are dubious at best, and perhaps downright dishonest.) His population is aging and not being replaced at the bottom, a hangover of the “one child” policy. And right now he has something like 5 months of fuel and questionable future shipments.
Bottom line: it does not feel like this is a good time to consider invading Taiwan.
“Xi may be trying to wait it out while simultaneously trying to influence US elections in that direction.”
No maybe about it.
Prestige wise, Trump’s visit props up Xi but leaves China even more dependent upon oil supplies from the US. That’s leverage over China’s future actions, in that it cannot risk deeply offending both its largest customer and now, critical oil supplier.
If while Trump is President, Xi pushes forward with an attempted invasion of Taiwan, US oil exports can be cut off and possibly other suppliers cajoled into joining an oil blockade. Leaving only Russia but whose pipeline cannot independently supply all of China’s needs.
It’s somewhat disconcerting that the adversaries of the US really just want to wait out Trump and hope a Democrat comes in. If that doesn’t tell you that the Ds are now a traitorous group, nothing will.
Taiwan …
incessant CCP propaganda has made bringing Taiwan under Chinese control a necessity, and the CCP will lose major face (and power?) if they sit on their hands too much longer. They have been greatly increasing their military capability for what, all those Asian countries threatening them? No, it is aimed at taking Taiwan. And don’t forget all the militarization in the S China Sea. Also, I think the recent purge of military officers is to clear out any doubters.
My Beijing born wife thinks it’s Xi’s number one objective to ‘complete’ the reunification of China (Macau and HK already done). His legacy. And he’s getting on in years, you know.
@M Williams: Taiwan …
incessant CCP propaganda has made bringing Taiwan under Chinese control a necessity, and the CCP will lose major face (and power?) if they sit on their hands too much longer.
I agree. It’s a bit difficult, sitting in America, to believe that China would attempt such a dangerous, risky move on a powerful, well-defended, unwilling island, but I think it’s true.
Not only for the reasons above, but also for the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) which is the most important semiconductor foundry in the world, especially when it comes to the most advanced AI chips.
Furthermore, since China is in decline, in terms of population and economics, it can’t wait forever to make that move.
I had hoped the China visit would include Trump wheeling-and-dealing to offer China incentives for a better future without Taiwan.
Maybe it did.
@ Huxley, reference TSMC: I know some other Neo blog commenter has already suggested that facility on Taiwan would be destroyed by the Taiwanese before they let it fall into the hands of the invading CCP.
The fly in that ointment is that some fraction of the Taiwanese are sympathetic to rejoining the mainland, and one or more of them may be CCP agents that could potentially thwart the preplanned destruction process.
As to an invasion of Taiwan by China, here’s how it might happen. We’ve already witnessed huge encircling training exercises around Taiwan, and I think that’s how it’ll happen. Encircle and then threaten with destruction anyone who dares to pierce that blockade.
And don’t think that Xi would be squeamish about sacrificing a couple million young men to do it. I think the purging of General Zhang Youxia, perhaps the most venerated living general, may be about this very point. Zhang is one of the few active generals who saw action in the 1979 war with Vietnam. He knows what an invasion of Taiwan means – the possible deaths of tens of thousands of young men. He’s not so sanguine about an invasion that is basically about pride.
I agree with Huxley that Americans basically are not able to wrap their heads around what motivates the Chinese. Their propaganda centers around Japan and the century of humiliation. The center of oriental power for centuries was helpless against the West in the 19th century and was carved up, with Japan joining the party once they had absorbed enough of western ways. The Sino/Japanese war of 1895, in which Japan took Formosa (Taiwan) and made inroads into Manchuria (NE China), was another humiliation.
The Chinese are proud people. In their minds they are simply returning to their rightful place as the center of Asia (and maybe beyond?). This is at the heart of CCP propaganda, this appeal to Chinese to right a historic wrong and resume their rightful place. And, IMO, everything they do and say points to a coming confrontation over Taiwan.
@ huxley > “I’m wondering what the billionaires club led by Elon Musk were doing at the meeting.”
I haven’t read much speculation on that point, just “wow! look!” stories.
However, my speculation is that President Trump had a couple of purposes, as he usually does. The implication, which was almost certainly never stated aloud, would run on these lines:
“Here are the people who own or run the companies China is stealing from, negotiating with, running business for already, etc. They have supposedly been dealing with you, Chairman Xi, but through not-always-trustworthy intermediaries, but now YOU can talk to them all in person, not second-hand.”
“Also, whatever we all say to each other is private, guaranteed.”
(A number of people have commented on the lack of leaks in 47’s administration, as revealed by some posts I’ve read about how the Democrats are floundering for narratives and information.
And then the Americans scorched the Chinese hackers, the government’s and also those who do not tell Xi the things they discover.)
“And I, Donald Trump, brought them to you. That’s how important I am to you. And why you should want to continue to work with me and my teams, not wait around for Democrats to bring you inferior deals.”
My two cents.
I probably read too much history and historical fiction.
It’s the kind of thing sovereign rulers would do with each other, back in the old days.
But, hey! No Kings here, right?
The Democrats have no idea what they are talking about with that line.
China puts up a good front, and the glittering images its state propaganda machine and tourist industry puts out present a modern China, on the march, and taking confident strides into the future.
However, the façade presented by these images and statistics hides realities which are not so advanced, progressive, or pretty.
Take for instance, the enormous dystopian slum which is Shipai village in Guangzhou, home to a reported 100,000 people. *
• See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1olgmbMuYi4
And https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uTzvMJziEw#ddg-play
M. Williams,
Indeed.
Some might say this is precisely why Trump must emasculate the Mullahs and upend the regime such that it can be replaced with something far less toxic, less threatening, more friendly to its citizenry and amenable to its neighbors (and to the wider world).
Venezuela should have been seen as a message.
The Islamic Republic(!) of Iran ought to become a message, too.
Guess we’ll have to see who’s good at getting messages…and who isn’t.