Commenter “Ariel” addresses these remarks by another commenter in this way:
…”but [Trump’s] policies are overall working pretty well” How the hell can you know that? I say this from watching George Bush blamed for the housing crash when it came from what Congress and Clinton did years before. It takes time, sometimes decades, to see what those policies create. You are no different than the Democrats that blamed Bush for what was done before he was President, they saw that it was good back then, but when it wasn’t they blamed someone else. What will you be doing when Trump’s policies lead to a crash in a later President’s term? Waxing exultant about how great was his policies and then clucking about what this other guy did to us?
I am so sick and tired of all of you because you fail to learn. What you do is root for your tribal leader and nothing more.
In this post I will offer a list of what I see as the hierarchy of methods of evaluation of a president. I’ve left out the first one (a method which I don’t see as “evaluation” at all), the one Ariel is alluding to as “rooting for your tribal leader and nothing else.” That style certainly exists, but it’s not mine and it certainly doesn’t fit the sentence Ariel quotes—“[Trump’s] policies are overall working pretty well”—unless there is evidence that the writer is applying that judgment in some mindless, kneejerk, party-line manner.
Here’s the list:
(1) surface style, which is easy to observe in a president (the wonderful crease in Obama’s pants, a la David Brooks) but quite irrelevant, in my book, taking a back seat to performance and results in the real world as president. Presidents are not figureheads; we’re not talking The Queen here, wearing a hat and carrying her purse.
(2) internal character—harder to evaluate than surface style, but not impossible. On this score, I think we can safely stipulate that Trump is not a role model. Internal character is more relevant in a president than surface style, but only so far as it affects job performance. For example, there have been presidents of good personal character internally (or seemingly, anyway) who were bad presidents or mediocre ones. For an example of the first (bad president) you have Jimmy Carter, and for the second (mediocre president) I give you Gerald Ford. On the other hand, we’ve had presidents who broke their marriage vows or were otherwise deceitful in the personal sense (bad internal character) and yet were considered good presidents by many historians.
(3) results in the external world. There are two types of results in the external world (a) short-term and (b) long-term. Regarding method (a) (short-term), whereas commenter Ariel is certainly correct that people commonly err when they ascribe credit (or blame) to the person who is in office when a phenomenon occurs, ignoring predecessors who may have set up the bad or good situation that led belatedly to the bad or good result, nevertheless despite its flaws and traps this is actually the best and most obvious way to evaluate a president in real time. Waiting for a time lag of “sometimes decades” is a luxury the voter simply does not usually have when making voting decisions.
Ariel seems to think that method (b) (long-term) is the very best way to evaluate a president. With that I agree, at least in theory. But unfortunately, that method is not available to us when a person has been president for such a short time. We can look back at that president years later, but by then all our voting decisions regarding that person will have been made.
We can, however, attempt to weigh the longer-term effect of the policies of that person’s predecessor, and decide how much those earlier polities have created the situation the later president faces. But you know what? Although better, that method has tremendous flaws, too. Political evaluation is not a science. Objectivity is rare, but even the objective can have trouble with evaluating history (see * NOTE below). To illustrate my point, just look at the incredible divergence of opinion among historians and among economists on just one historical issue: did FDR’s economic policies help prolong the Great Depression or help end it? About 80 years have passed since the Depression ended, and erudite opinions on both sides abound.
Of course, you and I may think we have the right answer; I certainly try to get at the right answer, objectively speaking. We lean towards one opinion or another that seems most convincing. But it’s not as though we know. We may indeed know more, and be wiser, about the far-distant past than about the very recent one. But we must, as voters (and as bloggers, or blog commenters) make decisions in real time, despite acknowledgement of the flawed nature of our reasoning. And we must depend partly or even mostly on the results we see of a presidency in real time, taking into account as best we can our knowledge of the past in making our decisions.
And that’s a lot better than voting based on the crease in someone’s pants. As human beings, however, we are all susceptible to and influenced by everything about a person, consciously perceived or not—including that crease. We can try to be consistent, however, in applying our evaluations and not just “root for a tribal leader.” But human beings will probably never get there, and most people don’t even try. If we “fail to learn” (Ariel’s contention), it’s because it’s the human condition, either to ignore history or to have trouble figuring out its lessons even when we do try to study it closely. [again, see * NOTE below)
During the 2016 campaign, I evaluated Trump based on his past, which did not include any political acts. That made it difficult to see how he would be going politically as a president. I had to use the evidence of his character (not good) and his words (inconsistent over time). I didn’t trust him and had no particular reason to do so, and I thought he would probably be not only inconsistent and a loose cannon as a president, but also relatively liberal. But so far, my observation of Trump as president is that he’s been relatively consistent in policy and mostly (not entirely) congruent with what he had promised, as well as one of the most conservative presidents (policy-wise, not personally) I’ve seen in my lifetime.
But I can only observe those things in real time, and discuss them and act accordingly. I try to take the past into account when trying to decide the effect of Trump—such as, for example, Obama’s previous economic policies. But I see what I see, which is that generally Trump has been pretty good and certainly much better than I expected him to be. But rest assured, if things go south under his presidency, I will (reluctantly) hold him to account. “Reluctantly,” because I want things to go well for this country and the world, as I always do no matter who is president and what party he or she represents.
[ * NOTE: In terms of the difficulty of evaluating and therefore learning from history, I am reminded of this from one of my favorite authors, Milan Kundera:
There is only one history of the Czechs. One day it will come to an end, as surely as Tomas’s life, never to be repeated.
In 1618, the Czech estates took courage and vented their ire on the emperor reigning in Vienna by pitching two of his high officials out of a window in the Prague Castle. Their defiance led to the Thirty Years War, which in turn led to the almost complete destruction of the Czech nation. Should the Czechs have shown more caution than courage? The answer may seem simple; it is not.
Three hundred and twenty years later, after the Munich Conference of 1938, the entire world decided to sacrifice the Czech’s country to Hitler. Should the Czechs have tried to stand up to a power eight times their size? In countrast to 1618, they opted for caution. Their capitulation led to the Second World War, which in turn led to the forfeit of their nation’s freedom for many decades or even centuries. What should they have done?
If Czech history could be repeated, we should of course find it desirable to check the other possibility each time and compare the results. Without such an experiment, all considerations of this kind remain a game of hypotheses…
The history of the Czechs will not be repeated, nor will the history of all of Europe. The history of the Czechs and of Europe are a pair of sketches from the pen of mankind’s fateful inexperience.
I would add that that’s true of much history, not just Czech history.]