Open thread 6/9/2026
You know the guy lived through it, because he’s talking. But you can’t figure out how:
The New Neo
A blog about political change, among other things
You know the guy lived through it, because he’s talking. But you can’t figure out how:
My grandson was a white water rafting guide for much longer than he should have been. Semi-retired and looking for a more stable career now. The fact that his raft flipped on Cherry Creek and he broke bones in his back–no permanent damage–may have influenced the decision. He and his wife did a multi-day trip through the Grand Canyon, for fun.
I always politely declined offers to go rafting with him; but people pay significantly to get soaked and thrilled (frightened?) on ‘technical rivers’. Lots of foreign visitors.
A longtime (read childhood) friend of mine was a Colorado River guide on rafting trips starting in his forties or fifties. I always thought of him as outdoor-savvy, but not necessarily as river- or raft-savvy. He seemed to do all right, judging from his own accounts and the fact that he survived the experience. From my personal knowledge of him, I judged that his decision to take on this arduous and sometimes dangerous occupation had more to do with his desire to avoid any long-term or office-bound employment.
Not sure if this has anything to do with the video: I tend not to watch any video longer than 20 minutes, even at double speed. Just not my cup of tea.
Some friends got into white river rafting in Ethiopia. Did that for a living. Lew Greenwald, the husband, drowned in Ethiopia. Some years later, I ran into their partner in the Big Bend TX area, who was still in the river rafting business.
A family friend stayed with us for his final semester after his parents retired to Arizona. He was a Physics major and self-taught electronics expert. Built his ham radio, and built us a TV from parts. Our first TV. Decades later, he got a Masters in EE from Arizona State, or was it U of A? His topic: construction of a communications system for river rafts shooting the Grand Canyon.
When I was 13, a friend and I took a five day canoe trip in the Adirondacks. We got tired of portaging the canoe, so at my suggestion we decided to try shooting some rapids. Towards the end of the rapids, we capsized. We found out that we had capsized just before a 3-5? -foot drop. Which led me to the conclusion that capsizing was preferred to going over the drop.
One more damn fool thing that kids do.
I am reminded of a story at a cousin’s recent funeral, about his car “accident” when he was still in high school. A friend of his asked his mother why she had sold his tires from the car. “He won’t be needing those tires.” Both my brother and I also had damn fool experiences with cars during our high school years, so there are stories ready to go for OUR funerals.
Perhaps an ominous sign. With the Karmelo Anthony jury deliberating in seclusion, Fox New reports the New Black Panthers are outside.
So Iran apparently hits a US Apache helo over the Strait and brings it down, both crew rescued. Trump vows a response. What kind of response? Another love tap? This is getting into the theater of the absurd where Iran just keeps upping the intimidation with no meaningful retaliation. It’s obvious to me that the IRGC has zero intention of ever having a true “deal”. Why can’t Trump see that? Why is he hamstringing Bibi? As as far as I can see, this “Deal” is worthless from the moment the ink is dried.
Someone please explain to me why such tolerance is useful, and why waiting even longer for the “Deal” that is always just “a few days away” for 10 weeks.
Youre not going to believe this
https://share.google/gbpVHKwtRmeuU9cqG
Or maybe you might
I am sorry to say Trump and Vance have no credibility with me now.
One has to wonder if Trump is delusional? Three dimension Chess? Well, the IRRGC is playing a different game, and if he understands it, that is not apparent.
Vance says that Trump and Israel diverge because Trump is determined that Iran never get a nuclear weapon? Israel does not share that determination? Give me an (expletive deleted) break. Where they diverge is that Israel is fighting rabid forces that are intent on destroying them.
Hey VP Vance, what would Trump do if the Cartels were shooting rockets and missiles into Texas? Maybe he would tell them the fun is over now; so behave like good boys and let’s talk about it.
So Iran apparently hits a US Apache helo over the Strait and brings it down, both crew rescued. — physicsguy
I just saw a news item on that rescue. Supposedly, a “sea drone” was deployed and picked up the helo guys floating in the water. In the news footage the boats looked like a smaller version of the old high speed PT boat, but it is entirely autonomous.
”Someone please explain to me why such tolerance is useful, and why waiting even longer for the ‘Deal’ that is always just ‘a few days away’ for 10 weeks.”
I don’t think it is useful. I think Trump is frozen because there is no military solution within the box in which he’s placed himself.
Trump ran his campaign in part on “no new wars.” I think that campaign promise was genuine, and he had at the time and still does have every intention of keeping it. For over 20 years he and his earliest and most fervent supporters have been very critical of both George Bushes over the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is entirely within his character to oppose long-term military operations.
So the only American military operations that are acceptable to him are quick-strikes such as Operation Midnight Hammer against Iran’s nuclear sites and Operation Absolute Resolve to capture Maduro. He believed Operation Epic Fury would be another quick-strike operation along those lines though perhaps a little longer — but only a little bit.
He believed — perhaps he was convinced by Netanyahu, perhaps by the Pentagon, perhaps he just assumed it (it doesn’t matter) — that Epic Fury would be a decapitation strike against the Iranian mullahs after which the remnants of the mullah regime would fall in line like the remnants of the Maduro regime.
That didn’t happen. So now the only military options left involve protracted military operations that will have substantial American casualties, and Trump just doesn’t have it in him to order that. He doesn’t want to capitulate — that would have bad consequences for everyone other than the mullahs — but he really, really doesn’t want to order extended military operations.
So here we are. Trump is stuck in a box. The Middle East is stuck in a box. The whole world is stuck in a box. The only route out of the box acceptable to Trump is to strike a deal, so that’s what he’s trying to do — really the only thing he’s trying to do.
The mullahs and the IRGC are not so constrained.
I don’t mind saying I told you. Trump and his ‘people’ are starting to look more and more like the those Elites who are smarter than the rest of the world, but do not understand the environment they dove in to.
I cite as prime examples, Robert McNamara and his ‘Whiz Kids’, and of course their facilitator LBJ. There are many others. For instance, the Movers and Shakers who thought that they could create a coherent, unified society in Afghanistan.
People like General Keane understand. He said that the Planners and War Gamers worked the scenario of Iran closing the straits, for instance, for many years. They knew it would be a tough problem that would require tough action to resolve.
None of that explains Trump telling us 38 times, according to CNN, that a wonderful deal was imminent. Some might ask, ‘is that delusion, or simple dishonesty?’
Almost everyone wants an answer, yesterday.
Patience is a virtue.
Thanks for the observation,Om.
Is a profanity laced tirade against Netanyahu for fighting back at the people who seek to destroy his country a virtue?
Is threatening Israel that they will ‘be on their own’ if they do not comply with Trump’s edicts a virtue?
There were announced Red Lines when the alleged negotiations started.
One was no more support for terrorist proxies. Where does that stand? Inquiring minds in Tel Aviv might want to know.
A second was open transit through The Straits. Oh?
Were those lines erased?
We are now told that control of the nuclear dust is THE red line.
Is it fair to wonder if that will become a pale pink line in pursuit of a deal?
I, for one, was pretty patient right up to the point that he seemingly turned on Israel. Getting concerned, but lecturing myself that he surely knew what he was doing. But at that point I started to seriously question the whole charade.
I commented once. If I am wrong I will gladly take my crow half baked.
How is this happening and why now?
https://nypost.com/2026/06/09/media/cbs-news-boss-bari-weiss-poised-to-oversee-cnn-editorial-operations-report/
No, Bari Weiss isn’t perfect, but she is an order of magnitude better than the trash that holds sway at most media outlets.
First 60 Minutes and now this. Is the media actually starting to get a clue as to just how out of touch they are?
Remember when we were assured that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction?
Good news. A deal with Iran is just two or three days away.
Trump has always had a casual relationship with reality. It is one of his strengths,
Back to the Colorado river rafter. He is a selfish fool. I’ve done my share of white water canoeing and rafting in my younger days. Maybe more than my share in wilderness. Multiple states and Canada. But to solo float into the Grand Canyon in a very full raft is simply major foolhardiness. I didn’t watch after the push-off because I knew how that was going to play out.
”Remember when we were assured that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction?”
Yup. And he did.
Amadeus 48:
I guess you’re one of those people who takes Trump literally, which is an error. So far, in matters not connected with Iran, he’s had a better connection with reality than most people and most politicians and statesman, and has been more effective.
Just to take one example, remember when he warned Western Europe that they shouldn’t depend on Russia for their energy needs, and they laughed at him? Who had the better grip on reality?
That doesn’t mean he’ll be successful in Iran; I have grave doubts about it myself. But don’t think he means everything he says.
Oh, and about those weapons of destruction in Iraq – that was almost 25 years ago, and our intelligence-gathering has gotten better. We’re not guessing about Iran; we know it. What to do about it is the question.
In addition, see this post of mine from 2008, in which I described the situation and which is still relevant now.
mkent:
Trump actually promised “no forever wars” and “no endless wars”- and this action against Iran is not that. He promised “no boots on the ground,” and this action against Iran is not that. He also said “I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop wars”. Although some would argue that’s a promise he broke, he would say that we’ve already been at war with Iran for 47 years, and he struck in order to stop a larger war.
Oldflyer:
If you are out of patience, shout at clouds, or pray, or spend more time on the water, or …..
But don’t light your hair on fire.
I’m not foolish enough to think I can give President Trump foreign policy advice from where I sit and what I know.
RE: What’s going on with Fender guitars?
You might have heard the news that Fender has sent “cease and desist” letters to many other guitar makers, with a list of draconian demands–demanding that the stop making guitars duplicating Fender’s ”Stratocaster” body shape, that they destroy all of their existing stock, etc.
This based on a default judgement they got in a court in Dusseldorf, in Germany, which ruled that the shape of Fender’s “Stratocaster” guitar deserved copyright protection under German and European law, because it was an “original creative expression.”
On the surface, this seems like an extraordinarily stupid, even suicidal decision, one which is already infuriating many in the “guitar community,” especially stupid because most legal experts see a German default ruling as a very weak reed to base such a letter and it’s draconian demands on, especially given the history of Fender guitars and their development, and on directly relevant U.S. court cases.
However, the linked article points out that the majority owner of Fender is now actually a company whose main business is car distribution, and that these are not “guitar people.”
This article also points out that this same company has recently acquired “Reverb”–the major musical instrument marketplace–and the article presents an interesting theory about why this company has decided to make this particular business decision, and to take this seemingly suicidal action.*
• See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvbUJG4bbNs
Again, I want to thank Om for his advice. Duly noted.
By the way, don’t worry about my hair being on fire as there is not enough to worry about.
But just to have the last word. Patience is truly a virtue. But it can be naturally stressed if the Leader of the World tells you something that proves to not be true dozens of times.
NOTE: I wrote this around 10 Tuesday morning, got a “too many requests” reply, and only now got back to it.
Lot of water under the news bridge since then!
***
AesopSpouse and his immediate family rafted down some river 50 years ago when they capsized. I didn’t go, because we had a couple of kids then who were too young for that adventure.
While the kids were growing up, he took them with the Scouts on river trips every other year, alternating with Philmont. We have some perennial stories from those expeditions, including wrapping an aluminum canoe around a large boulder (one of the other boys).
There were some adventures I didn’t learn about until many years later.
I also didn’t go on the rafting trip about 10 years later with his siblings & in-laws at the Grand Canyon. I didn’t have the kids for an excuse by then, as they were all out of the house.
Guess it’s just me. 😉
@ miguel – I believed it when I read it earlier today.
Here’s the story that miguel’s link brings up:
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/chinks-in-the-plot-armor-monday-june
The guy with the “plot armor” (protection by the deep state) is one of our Covid villains, although not one that’s gotten the most press, as I recall.
Apparently, he is about to be hit by a #MeToo sledgehammer.
Not that Democrats care about that anymore, but the charges look legit to Jeff Childers, who is a lawyer familiar with the genre.
neo–to be clear, I generally support Trump, and I am frustrated by Iran’s apparent ability to string him along and put him on the clock with respect to the US mid-term elections. I don’t think Trump is helping himself or us with pronouncements about a wonderful deal that will be revealed at any moment, and yet never appears. I recall all too well Trump’s business career in which fiascos and successes (and there were many of both) were equally trumpeted as the greatest thing anyone has ever seen. The character in American history he most resembled was P. T. Barnum. After one and one-half terms as POTUS, in which he has shown remarkable resilience and resolve, he has taken on Iran, and I am afraid he has bitten off more than he can handle. If he can extract some sort of success, wonderful. But at the moment it appears that the mullahs are making a fool of him. But every president since Ford has stumbled in the Middle East.
“But every president since Ford has stumbled in the Middle East.”
this is partly because few attempt to really learn about “Islam” and then tackle and discredit the ideology of Islam at its historical and logical source: No Muhammad, no Mecca, no winged horse, no Koran before at least 750AD, perhaps much later??? Also Koran clearly written by men and not “revealed” by Allah. Other scripture a basket case of nonsense. Possibly evolved from a non-trinitarian group of Arab Christians? Clearly a tribal and raider based view of supremacy and control, women as chattel, etc.
Finally a “religion” bastardized from prior Jewish, Christian, and perhaps Zoroastrians sources??
And why would the Berbers, Egyptians, Indians/Pakistanis, Persians, Turks, et al. continue to accept a religion imposed by conquest on them, given their current relative power vs. that of the Arabs? Comparing “western” prosperity and liberty and general social success vs. Islamic societies might be a valid point to emphasize as well.