All quiet on the hurricane front

The New Neo Posted on by

Not too many hurricanes so far this year:

Perhaps what is most striking about this season is that we are now at the absolute peak of hurricane season, and there is simply nothing happening. Although the Atlantic season begins on June 1, it starts slowly, with maybe a storm here or there in June, and often a quiet July before the deep tropics get rolling in August. Typically about half of all activity occurs in the 14 weeks prior to September 10, and then in a mad, headlong rush the vast majority of the remaining storms spin up before the end of October.

While it is still entirely possible that the Atlantic basin—which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea—produces a madcap finish, we’re just not seeing any signs of it right now.

Many non-scientist AGW proponents in the popular press are eager to attribute all unusual weather events to AGW, and to consider them bad. They also often fail to differentiate between weather (which this is) and long-term trends. I expect they’ll say that this year’s dearth of hurricanes is due to AGW.

And here’s an article about global warming and hurricanes, from June of 2022, that says that scientists have predicted there will be a decrease in hurricane frequency and in increase in hurricane intensity over time, due to AGW. This season we’ve seen the first but have not seen the second; au contraire. But a season does not a trend make.

What’s going on in Ukraine these days?

The New Neo Posted on by

Plenty.

I don’t usually report on the ups and downs of the military events in Ukraine, nor do I make prognostications except for making one – which still stands – that this will go on for quite a while longer and the outcome is uncertain.

That’s more of a prediction-avoidance maneuver than a prediction.

But the recent news from Ukraine is that the Ukrainians have mounted a successful campaign to take back territory from the Russian invaders. That seems to be real and not propaganda. Here’s some evidence that at least some Russians are getting the picture – and by the way, the video shows a more fascinating give-and-take from people on both sides than you usually (or ever?) see on US television. Well worth watching:

You can read a very glowing pro-Ukraine account of the situation here. For example:

Not only was the Kharkiv offensive well-coordinated and efficiently executed, it completely surprised Russian forces in the area. That’s extraordinary in today’s information age. Yet the Ukrainians managed it, completely blocking any leaks about a forthcoming attack. Ukraine’s operational security bespeaks both a skilled military and a nation united by Russia’s unprovoked aggression.

The Kharkiv counter-offensive was opportunistic in the best sense. Unlike the battle now unfolding in the southern region of Kherson, just north of Crimea, the battle for Kharkiv was not prepared for months. In the south, Ukrainian officials repeatedly said they were planning to retake the region. Then, having lured more troops into an indefensible position, they prepared the battlefield by severing bridges and exploding ammunition dumps, cutting off the Russians’ resupply. Doing that in Kharkiv would have eliminated any chance for surprise.

Surprise — followed by swift movement across Kharkiv — was possible because Moscow had too few troops to hold that hostile territory. Its forces were thin from the start of the invasion last February, when Russia expected to seize the capital city with blitzkrieg speed. When that failed and the war dragged on, Moscow found it impossible to adequately reinforce its positions with well-trained soldiers. It simply didn’t have them. It had to rely on mercenaries, conscripts, and poorly trained cannon fodder. Russia’s already-thin forces in Kharkiv were depleted even further as military planners began withdrawing troops and equipment and moving them south to fight in Kherson.

I think a fairly important aspect of the differential is morale, and it may be quite telling over the long run.

You can read more here as well as here.

A sobering thought:

While it is right to celebrate the Russian rout, the war may be entering a far more dangerous phase.

Consider: If Russian President Vladimir Putin tired of attrition and decided to use tactical nuclear weapons, how would Russian behavior—a rapid withdrawal and even leaving key equipment behind—be different? The answer: It would not be…

Celebrations may be premature if Putin seeks to achieve through nuclear weapons what he could not with manpower. To remain silent now, downplay the threat that Russia might use its tactical nuclear weapons, or let fear govern policy will mean the end of the post-World War II liberal order.

As the Ukraine war enters a crucial new phase, it is time both to step up deterrence and plan for what comes after Russian first use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Something of which the Biden administration appears quite incapable.

What does it take to wake people up to tyranny?

The New Neo Posted on by

Commenter “stan” says, regarding how the left has been undermining our liberties and using lawfare to silence the opposition they label as the enemy, “What’s it going to take for good people to see what is happening in plain sight?”

I’ve pondered that question myself, and my answer is: a great deal more than has already occurred, unfortunately. One of the aspects of tyranny, especially one accompanied by widespread propaganda, is that it can be successfully reframed so that many “good people” don’t notice. One reason this happens is that it’s hard to believe that people you’ve supported for so long are doing tyrannical things, because in general you agree with their point of view and are inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt – at least, until the crocodile eats you, and then it’s too late.

Another reason is ignorance of history.

Another reason is not paying attention. Just to take one example, see this poll about Biden’s Red Sermon speech:

About half of Americans watched, heard, or overheard something about Biden’s speech (51%) which took place in Philadelphia last week. Independents (64%) and Republicans (48%) were least likely to have followed the speech, but 35% of Democrats also didn’t.

We’re not just talking about half of Americans not watching the speech. We’re talking about half of Americans not knowing anything about the speech. Independents, who are so important in elections, are the most likely to have been clueless about the speech. That says a lot, I think.

The poll has further statistics on responses to the speech, but I don’t have access to the full report, and the summary doesn’t say whether the rest of the results only involve the responses of those who’ve heard something about the speech, or if they reflect even the half who know nothing about it.

I can well understand the desire to turn away from politics. I spent a great deal of my earlier life following politics only in a fairly general and sporadic way, and back then I probably represented the average person’s involvement; maybe even slightly more than average. Politics is nasty, messy, and often depressing. It’s easier and more pleasant to ignore it until you’re forced to pay attention and then there are three big problems. The first is that most of what’s written and said is propaganda. The second is that it’s hard to pay catch-up because you lack the historical perspective. And the third is that by the time the picture becomes clear enough to really see what’s happening, it’s often too late.

Will enough people wake up in time in this country to reverse the leftist tide? That remains to be seen.

ADDENDUM: VDH writes on the fact that the US has become unhinged, and people around the world are noticing and many are alarmed. [Hat tip: commenter “j e”.]

Theme and variations on “Little Girl Blue”

The New Neo Posted on by

I first heard the song “Little Girl Blue” when I was in high school, sung by Nina Simone. My high school boyfriend introduced me to her records, and I was immediately taken with her unique musical style. No one sounded like her back then or even now. Her rendition of “Little Girl Blue,” a Rodgers and Hart song from 1935, was heartrending but also controlled and classical – not surprising, because her piano accompaniment bore the marks of her Julliard training (she originally had wanted to be a concert pianist). I don’t know which I liked better, her singing or her playing, but luckily I didn’t have to choose.

I was recently exploring the song on YouTube and came across this Sinatra version, which doesn’t overly appeal to me – it seems quite bland – but is an interesting contrast (I’m cutting out the old-fashioned intro and going right into the song):

Ella Fitzgerald has a lovely light touch that never fails. But again, for me anyway, it’s not as good as the intensely dramatic Nina Simone, although I like it a lot better than Sinatra:

I was shocked to find out that Janis Joplin did a version. A whole different kettle of fish, as you might imagine. I often like Joplin quite a bit, but to me her approach takes away from the song’s delicate sorrow, although it’s certainly different from the others:

And here – finally – is Nina Simone in 1959, very similar to the version I’ve known so well and loved so long. Note the finesse and beauty of her piano playing, too. You can hardly miss it:

Later on Simone went through a period of displaying anger at the audience – or at the world, or at something undetermined – during some of her concerts. It think that some of it was the turbulent times, and/or some may have been that she later was diagnosed with bipolar disorder. I once went to a Nina Simone concert during those years, and it was uncomfortable, but her music hadn’t lost its brilliance and beauty. I’m including this live version of “Little Girl Blue” from that period – 1976 – to show what I mean, changed lyrics and all. She used stillness and quiet to remarkable effect:

From Nina Simone’s Wiki entry:

Besides using Bach-style counterpoint, she called upon the particular virtuosity of the 19th-century Romantic piano repertoire—Chopin, Liszt, Rachmaninoff, and others. Jazz trumpeter Miles Davis spoke highly of Simone, deeply impressed by her ability to play three-part counterpoint (her two hands on the piano and her voice each providing a separate but complementary melody line).

I’m still deeply impressed by that very same thing, but also by her ability to express restrained yet naked emotion with her voice while simultaneously conveying Apollonian classicism through her piano.

The Biden administration’s lawfare against Trump allies continues

The New Neo Posted on by

They want to frighten people into never, never ever working for Trump again. Those MAGA Republicans are, of course, the enemy out to destroy America, and they deserve everything they might get – after all, Biden said so in his Red Sermon, didn’t he?

Steve Bannon, who was pardoned by Trump for federal charges but is now being tried by New York for virtually the same charges, because Trump’s pardon can only apply federally and not to a state, has this to say:

…Bannon appeared on the Charlie Kirk show on Friday and he made some concerning remarks about efforts by the Biden FBI against Trump allies. Bannon said that we saw from Biden’s “demonic” anti-MAGA speech that this was the “primal scream” of a “dying regime.” Bannon claimed there were “35 FBI raids” on senior MAGA/Trump allies.

I wouldn’t necessarily credit that, except that attorney Harmeet Dhillon confirmed that she has three clients that this happened to:

Dhillon appeared with Tucker Carlson. She said that there had been a reporter reaching out asking if search warrants or subpoenas had been served on some 50 people. Dhillon confirmed to Tucker Carlson that search warrants or subpoenas had been served on three clients of hers — one of whom had their phone seized. The federal grand jury subpoenas were broad asking for any communications from October 2020, a month before the election to two months after the election. The subpoenas sought communications related to certification, fraud in the election, alternate electors, anything related to the rally before the Jan. 6 riot, and any communications related to the Save America PAC.

January 6th is the Reichstag Fire that keeps on giving. And if you previously thought that was hyperbole, I think that Biden’s over-the-top speech on September 1st should have convinced you otherwise.

More at the link, including a sample subpoena connected with these investigations.

NOTE: Please see this alarming and related development. An excerpt:

A trial was held, and on Sept. 6 New Mexico Judge Francis Mathew ordered Griffin removed from office and banned from holding any future office in the United States. “The historic ruling represents the first time an elected official has been removed from office for their participation or support of the U.S. Capitol riot,” CNN reported. “It also marks the first time a judge has formally ruled that the events of January 6, 2021 were an ‘insurrection.'”…

Mathew’s “insurrection” finding was critical to the case. After all, the 14th Amendment provides for disqualification of anyone who, having previously taken an oath to support the Constitution, has engaged in “insurrection or rebellion against the [United States].” Unlike soldiers of the Confederacy who took up arms, Griffin trespassed. How could he be removed from office for that? If the Capitol riot were not an “insurrection,” the case against Griffin fell apart. So Mathew declared the riot an “insurrection.”…

Note that in his citation…Mathew referred to “intimidation by numbers.” That was his way of suggesting that Griffin, simply by being one member of a larger group of protesters and rioters on Jan. 6, was guilty of something far greater than trespassing. Indeed, Mathew’s ruling was filled with references to what “the mob” did on Jan. 6 but had fewer examples of what Griffin himself did on Jan. 6. In any event, Mathew found that Griffin had engaged in “insurrection.” He order Griffin ousted from his position and barred from ever holding any state or federal office again.

There’s a great deal more at the link.

Using similar reasoning and approach, the left has already tried (unsuccessfully so far) to disqualify two Republican members of Congress from running for office: Madison Cawthorn and Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Tomorrow it will have been 21 years since 9/11

The New Neo Posted on by

Tomorrow is 9/11.

Twenty-one years is a long long time, and a lot has happened since then to America and to the world. And yet 9/11 still marks a kind of turning point.

Never such innocence again, after 9/11.

Here’s a repeat of what I wrote on the 17th anniversary, with a few slight changes. It still rings true to me.

There are plenty of young adults who don’t clearly remember a time before 9/11. The attack is just part of the background music of life, just as Pearl Harbor was for me when I was growing up. As a child, I couldn’t quite understand what the big fuss was all about; it was history, after all.

But even for those of us who were fully adult—maybe even old—at the time of 9/11, it was a long while ago, and although I can only speak for myself I think that for the most part the event has been fully incorporated (as much as humanly possible, that is) into our view of the world. It is no longer so shocking as history.

That doesn’t mean it’s still not shocking on the occasions when we fully contemplate it. It’s just that we rarely do, although an anniversary like today would be a good time to do it. It also doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be very shocking if something similar were to ever happen again (heaven forbid). But it does mean that 9/11 is part of our view of the world, a view that has had a full twenty-one years to form. And a great deal has happened since then.

But I still remember the fear, dread, grief, and anger I felt that day. Here’s what I wrote about it in 2005, when the memory was still quite fresh. Any photos of the many people who died at the hands of the perpetrators that day still move me; all those innocent lives snuffed out, many in their prime.

There were heroes that day such as, for example, the Flight 93 passengers and crew, the firefighters and police, the ordinary people in the WTC who stopped to help assist others to get out (some of whom lost their own lives in the process), those on the planes who phoned to say a last goodbye to loved ones or to give information about the hijackings—all are heroes to me. RIP, and let us never become blasé about what happened.

I would have wished for more unity of purpose among Americans and the Western world in the aftermath. That was most definitely not to be. We are more divided than ever, I think, although it’s a cliché to say so. Much of what is happening today doesn’t seem related to 9/11, but much of it is. Forces were unleashed that day that still reverberate, sometimes in unexpected ways.

One of the most unexpected was my own small personal story of political change that began on that day but really had been in the works for a long time without my even being aware of it, and which took a couple of post-9/11 years to actually be completed.

I suppose it’s still a work in progress, and this blog is part of it.

Open thread 9/10/22

The New Neo Posted on by

This is from 1940, when the dial telephone was introduced. It seems not only from another time, but from another planet. Here’s the part where a woman goes on and on explaining much more than you ever needed to know in order to dial a phone. There’s something languid, weighty, and yet sensual in her presentation that makes it quite the tour de force:

Here’s the whole thing, complete with extended family including Gramps, and teenage daughter:

I’m out west for a while…

The New Neo Posted on by

…visiting family and friends.

Yesterday was a long journey, and the easiest part was the plane ride.

But the bus that takes me to the airport had changed one of its policies unexpectedly. The airport was unusually crowded and I have no idea why. I had gotten to the airport so early that they put my bags on another flight without telling me, and I waited a half hour on the other end while the bags circled on the carousel and mine wasn’t there, only to find that it had been safe and sound at the airport already for hours (and don’t tell me to just take a carry-on; for various reasons, including orthopedic ones, it’s not possible).

And then on the way to where I was staying, there was a detour of which my GPS was blissfully ignorant, and it kept stubbornly sending me back to the closed road again and again. The detour instruction signs then suddenly disappeared when they were most needed.

But here I am, and very happy to be here. Where is “here”? Somewhere out west.

Also, even though the flight was from one blue stronghold to another, I noticed that only about 15% to 20% of the people on the plane wore masks. Interesting.

Here are three photos I took from the plane. It was sunset over the Rockies with a thick cloud cover. Time passed and the night got darker.

Here’s the first one:

The second:

The third:

Roundup

The New Neo Posted on by

(1) New British PM Elizabeth (there’s that name again!) Truss has lifted the fracking ban. That certainly seems reasonable. But it’s not all that common for leaders to do something reasonable, is it?

The end of the fracking moratorium is part of a larger set of policies the new prime minister announced Thursday, which was put together to manage the crisis and to help households cope with astronomical energy bills…

“It is vital we take steps to increase our domestic energy supply,” Truss said. “We will end the moratorium on extracting our huge reserves of shale that could get gas flowing in as soon as six months where there is local support for it.”…

…[S]ome Tories have been resistant to the notion, citing local opposition in areas that have shale reserves.

A NIMBY phenomenon? But if the shale really is in your backyard, it’s not as though it can be placed somewhere else.

(2) A lot of people believe the MAL documents were related to Russiagate. It certainly is very believable as a possibility. Then again, the desire of the left, the Deep State, and the Democrats to convict Trump of something, anything, is so powerful a driving force that the raid doesn’t even require a scenario as obvious or overt as covering up their tracks in Russiagate.

(3) Washington DC City Council member complains:

And what did that powers-that-be in DC do to Texas and Arizona and the “border towns” in those states? The answer is: allow and even encourage them to be flooded with illegal immigrants, that’s what. But Texas and Arizona diverting a little tiny trickle to previously virtue-signaling “sanctuary” DC causes an outraged uproar. “Hypocritical” doesn’t even begin to cover it.

(4) Rasmussen is calling Biden’s Nuremberg rally speech the “Red Sermon.” I think of it as his Captain Ahab “from hell’s heart I stab at thee” speech, but perhaps that’s too literary a reference. In this recent post about the MAL raid and its fallout, I discussed that Ahab speech from Moby Dick, and the fact that it was Ahab’s last speech before he was destroyed along with the Pequod itself and almost all its crew. Biden’s Red Sermon hasn’t had that effect, but it certainly hasn’t been received well, according to Rassmusen’s polls.

(5) Manchin isn’t getting much love from West Virginia voters, which will probably hurt his re-election chances. Then again, I have wondered whether he might be ready to retire; after all, he’s not up for re-election till 2024, at which point he’ll be 77. And although these days in the political world that’s tantamount to being in the prime of life [sic], I have a feeling he might be more than happy to retire and take whatever money his actions will end up getting him, or maybe just plain relax.

More thoughts on the life and death of Queen Elizabeth II

The New Neo Posted on by

I think the sorrow a lot of people feel on Queen Elizabeth’s death is that, even for those of “mature” years, she was always around. I was a tiny child when she was crowned, and I’m certainly a child no more.

I think I have a memory of glancing at the TV and seeing a moment of the ceremony all those long years ago – or do I only imagine it? I also remember that just a few years later, when I was still a young child, she visited New York and even made an appearance in the area where I lived. Is that a real memory, or not?

She was a beautiful young woman, then a middle-aged one, and then an old but very intrepid one. Her predecessor in name, Queen Elizabeth I, had enormous power. But in contrast, Elizabeth II only had the symbolic power of her personal example, and she set a remarkable one.

She hardly even changed her style of clothing, and in a world of enormous change, she held on as an example of the dignity that was more common in former generations. Her demise coincides with a feeling of gloom in the Western world and for many people it augments it, if only emotionally.

Unlike many royals of old – and probably even today – her marriage was a love match. And yet she had problems with some of her offspring and that made it a tiny bit easier to identify with her, even though other aspects of her life were so singular.

Melanie Phillips voiced worry back in October:

To widespread unease, if not outright concern, the Queen has been missing some public engagements recently due to unspecified health issues…

She has also been advised to stop riding. The Queen no longer riding! The world is indeed wobbling on its axis…

Even so, these restrictions on the Queen’s activities have induced a sense of dread. At age 95, it is on everyone’s mind that she cannot go on for ever.

Yet the Queen is an irreplaceable constant in the life of the British nation. Her public appearances aren’t just the exercise of her role as the symbol of the nation. As so many feel so viscerally, she is the nation.

People feel better just for seeing her out and about with her trademark smile, a few gracious words — and trailing a cloud of insoluble mystery. With her unrivalled sense of duty, her stoicism and her emotional restraint, many see in the Queen the embodiment of a Britain whose cultural identity is inexorably fraying. Many feel in their bones that when the Queen eventually passes, Britain will just not be the same. Despite the fact that the monarchy will continue, something of infinite value will have been lost.

Now Giles [Frazier, an Anglican priest] has framed all this in spiritual terms. He sees in the Queen’s very frailty something especially precious. He acknowledges something that few realise and that is never, ever talked about in post-Christian Britain— that the British monarchy is a sacrament and that the Queen is consecrated to God.

And yesterday Phillips wrote this, probably speaking for a great many people:

It was, of course, always an inevitability, as it is for all of us. And in recent months the Queen had obviously become increasingly frail.

Nevertheless, it felt unthinkable that one day she would no longer be with us. We allowed ourselves to imagine that she would go on for ever. For so many of us this evening, this feels like a personal bereavement. Something of priceless value has been torn from us, and we feel devastated…

She held the country together because of the way she effaced herself to become the quintessence of duty and selfless service to her people, a symbol of unity and true inclusion. We watched the way she conducted her great office — her calmness, her strength, her fortitude, her kindliness, and humility — and we felt soothed and reassured that, in looking at her example, we were gazing at ourselves as a nation in the mirror she held up to us. She loved us with deep devotion, and in return we loved her.

Her son Charles, who will finally become king, simply doesn’t inspire anything remotely like the same devotion. Of course, his mother was a tough tough act to follow.