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Remember those Medicare Advantage cuts?

The New Neo Posted on April 8, 2014 by neoApril 8, 2014

Do you recall that part of the path to the passage of Obamacare involved some manipulation in order to get the proper CBO scoring? There were a lot of aspects to that, including the delay of many of the bill’s provisions until 2014. One way in which costs were kept low enough was the future reduction of federal payments to insurance companies in the Medicare Advantage program.

Well, as with so many of the unpopular but seemingly necessary parts of Obamacare, those cuts have been suspended—at least till after the 2014 election. How very convenient:

Under cuts planned by the administration, insurers offering the plans were to see their federal payments reduced by 1.9 percent, which likely would have necessitated cuts for customers.

Instead, the administration said the federal payments to insurers will increase next year by .40 percent.

The healthcare law included $200 billion in cuts to Medicare Advantage over 10 years, in part to pay for ObamaCare.

The Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services (CMS) on Monday said changes in the healthcare market meant it did not need to make those cuts to Medicare Advantage this year.

It cited an increase in healthy beneficiaries under Medicare, which it said has lowered projected costs for that program…

The announcement comes after insurers spent millions on a public relations blitz seeking to head off the cuts, and after dozens of Democrats joined Republicans in calling on the administration to keep MA rates flat to avoid cutting benefits for seniors.

So, let’s see: the cuts were necessary to pass Obamacare. But they are poison at the ballot box, so there’s been pressure (from both sides, and insurance companies too) to call them off. Suddenly, as an explanation for their suspension, we find that old people have gotten healthier. Forgive me for being skeptical.

Republicans face a dilemma on this and myriad other issues connected with Obamacare. If they let all the terrible consequences of the original bill play out, it gives the Democrats ammunition for saying that Republicans want people to suffer. On the other hand, if Republicans block certain aspects of the bill that would make people feel pain (such as reductions in Medicare Advantage reimbursement), they increase their “compassionate” creds but they also improve the acceptability of Obamacare to the public, which is likely to end up blunting their own cause. Meanwhile, for most people, forgotten (if it was ever even known in the first place) is the hypocrisy and deception of the Democrats in perpetrating the original CBO scoring game, replaced by relief that Medicare Advantage will remain more or less the same for now.

So, what have we learned? We’re given a blueprint for how to manipulate future bills under consideration by Congress in order to get a good score from the CBO. Just put all sorts of cost-saving devices in there in order to pass muster, and then just cancel them afterward by executive order or other non-legislative approaches. As for the cost of Obamacare, we’ll worry about that later, after November 2014.

You can fool a lot of the people a lot of the time.

Posted in Health care reform | 8 Replies

Jeb Bush: the candidate without a constituency

The New Neo Posted on April 8, 2014 by neoApril 8, 2014

I’ve heard for years about the Republican “establishment” pushing this candidate or that candidate on the rank and file. Most of the time it’s seemed untrue to me.

But it seems absolutely on target with the current talk of Jeb Bush for 2016. He has no natural constituency. There is nothing special—or especially appealing—about him as a candidate. His name, IMHO, is a liability rather than an asset, both with Republicans and with Democrats.

So who would be voting for Bush in a primary? Darned if I know.

[NOTE: In choosing a category for this post, I thought about including him in “people of interest.” But the opposite is the point: he’s a person without interest.]

Posted in Politics | 44 Replies

Stop the presses: rate of uninsured lowest since late 2008

The New Neo Posted on April 7, 2014 by neoApril 7, 2014

If this hadn’t happened, now that would have been a shock. After all, if you give Medicaid to a whole new group of people, offer subsidies to a huge number of other lower-income people, and stick everyone else with penalties for not getting insurance, it could be expected that the rate of those without health insurance would go down.

And I don’t recall (although I could be missing something) that anyone on the right was suggesting that the total rate of the medically uninsured would fail to go down as a result of Obamacare. The real questions were and are (a) how much of a dent it would actually make in the uninsured (a figure that was probably somewhat elusive to begin with); (b) at what cost, both in money and disruption; (c) what quality of insurance would be the result; (d) what the effect on our health care system would be over time; and (e) the effect on our liberty.

But anyway, here are the stats are from Gallup. Unfortunately, I can’t find a link to the actual study, and I always prefer to look at the more complete picture, but let’s look at the chart from the summary version:

healthinsurancedrop

The first question I have is why the chart only begins in 2008. I did a search for a chart of earlier stats and kept getting that same chart that appears above. I’m beginning to think that Gallup may only have begun asking the question in 2008, but I just don’t know. At any rate, as you can see, in early 2008 the uninsured rate was even lower than it is now. What happened in late 2008 to make the rate rise? It’s pretty easy to guess: the financial downturn, which I am fairly certain had a chilling effect on the number of Americans with health insurance.

I also can’t get figures on the margin of error in the Gallup poll, but the drop here (at least in some sub-groups) may be within it. I happen to think that the overall drop is real, however. It makes perfect sense that the rate would drop, for all the reasons I wrote in that first paragraph, and I would be stunned if it did not.

Gallup also points out that by far the greatest drops occurred in the following categories: people with incomes under $36,000, and blacks. That is completely understandable and expected, as well, because it’s logical to assume that it reflects both the Medicaid expansion and the effect of subsidies (although it’s interesting that—as I’ve read in other sources—there was not a similar drop in the percentage of uninsured among Hispanics).

Here’s the chart:

breakdownuninsuredrate

Unfortunately, the chart only compares the last quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014; I would have liked to have seen it go further back in time for a fuller picture.

How much of the drop involves the Medicaid expansion? How much the fact that the unemployment rate (at least, in the flawed way it’s measured) also dropped between the last quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014? How many of the newly-covered people will continue to be covered a few months from now, and how many will end up defaulting on their payments?

And what are the answers to my questions in paragraph one?

Posted in Health care reform | 15 Replies

Meanwhile…

The New Neo Posted on April 7, 2014 by neoApril 7, 2014

…Saturday was voting day in Afghanistan:

The strong turnout came despite threats from the Taliban to disrupt the vote and punish all involved in the first democratic transfer of presidential power in the country’s turbulent history.

Lest you think the threats were hyperbole:

Afghan Interior Minister Mohammad Umer Daudzai told reporters that 20 people were killed in violence across the country Saturday, as insurgents tried to disturb the voting processes. Seven military personnel, nine police and four civilians were killed.

Forty-three people were also wounded in attacks targeting mostly voting centers, the minister said, adding that most wounded people were civilians

Meanwhile, Afghan security forces killed more than 80 insurgents across the country and foiled several attacks against voting centers, Daudzai said…

Nearly 1,000 polling sites were closed because of security concerns; another 6,423 were open.

Makes you appreciate our (so far) peaceful voting days, doesn’t it?

Whatever happens, Karzai is out. The Afghan constitution bans him from seeking another term at this point. And if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a run-off will be held.

Posted in Afghanistan, Liberty | 8 Replies

RIP Mickey Rooney

The New Neo Posted on April 7, 2014 by neoApril 7, 2014

Actor Mickey Rooney has died at 93.

In my mind, I picture him as an irrepressible young man; that’s the age he was when he gained his greatest fame. As a child, I watched the Andy Hardy movies on my black-and-white TV. Whenever it rained at summer camp they’d show seemingly endless films, a great many of which featured Rooney with horses. I wasn’t all that interested in the horses, but I loved Rooney’s energy and cocky attitude.

That energy took him through a long long life—not to mention eight wives, including the beauteous Ava Gardner.

I could put up any number of clips here, but for some reason this one comes to mind first, made when Rooney was about fifteen. “Goodnight unto you all!”:

But perhaps his greatest joy was performing with Judy Garland. Now that we’ve said good-night, let’s say “good morning”:

RIP.

Posted in Movies | 18 Replies

Andrew Sullivan asks: what’s the difference between Hillary and Eich, since they both once opposed gay marriage??

The New Neo Posted on April 6, 2014 by neoApril 6, 2014

Here’s Sullivan[emphasis mine]:

Hillary Clinton only declared her support for marriage equality in 2013. Before that, she opposed it. In 2000, she said that marriage “has a historic, religious and moral context that goes back to the beginning of time. And I think a marriage has always been between a man and a woman.” Was she then a bigot? On what conceivable grounds can the Democratic party support a candidate who until only a year ago was, according to the latest orthodoxy, the equivalent of a segregationist, and whose [husband’s] administration enacted more anti-gay laws and measures than any in American history?

There are several grounds. The first is that a gay marriage heretic can be saved by recantation. Here’s the definition:

To formally abandon a belief or a particular statement of belief, generally under order from an ecclesiastical authority…to enforce an orthodoxy. If ordered to recant by such an ecclesiastical authority, one who refused to recant is anathematized or excommunicated.

Hillary Clinton (and President Obama) have recanted, which saves them and also turns them into poster children for the evolution of correct liberal thinking. It doesn’t matter whether their present feelings are their true ones—and actually were their true feelings all along, with their previous anti-gay-marriage stances the false ones—or not. What matters is their public declarations.

That is exactly what Eich stubbornly refused to do, and he paid for it.

As evidence that Eich’s recantation may always have been the goal, I offer this:

I guess this counts as some kind of “victory,” but it doesn’t feel like it. We never expected this to get as big as it has and we never expected that Brendan wouldn’t make a simple statement. I met with Brendan and asked him to just apologize for the discrimination under the law that we faced. He can still keep his personal beliefs, but I wanted him to recognize that we faced real issues with immigration and say that he never intended to cause people problems.

It’s heartbreaking to us that he was unwilling to say even that.

We absolutely don’t believe that everyone who voted yes on Prop 8 is evil. In fact, we’re sure that most of them just didn’t understand the impact the law would have. That’s why so many people have changed their mind in 4 short years ”“ because they saw the impact and pain that the law caused to friends and family members.

People think we were upset about his past vote. Instead we were more upset with his current and continued unwillingness to discuss the issue with empathy. Seriously, we assumed that he would reconsider his thoughts on the impact of the law (not his personal beliefs), issue an apology, and then he’d go on to be a great CEO.

The fact it ever went this far is really disturbing to us.

If that’s not enough to convince you, there’s also this sort of thing:

…[T]he ringleaders [were] men such as Owen Thomas, a tech gossip columnist and amateur tyrant who was so vexed by Eich’s employment that he saw fit to issue what can only be described as a catechism. Among the commandments that Thomas etched onto his website were: “Stop saying that this was merely a private matter that won’t affect your work as Mozilla’s CEO”; “Say that whatever chain of logic led you to conclude that your personal views required you to support Proposition 8 was flawed, erroneous, incorrect”; “Say that you support the rights of people to enter into same-sex marriages everywhere”; and “Make a donation equal in amount to the money you gave to Proposition 8 and candidates who supported it to the Human Rights Campaign or another organization that fights for the civil rights of LGBT people.” Elsewhere, a Credoaction petition accrued 75,000 signatures behind the demand that “CEO Brendan Eich should make an unequivocal statement of support for marriage equality. If he cannot, he should resign. And if he will not, the board should fire him immediately.”

The recantation was most important, and Eich failed to deliver. So he had to go. Let that serve as a warning to others.

I don’t think that Hillary Clinton would be quite so eagerly supported today had she not recanted. I also don’t think that act was the least bit difficult for her, since I don’t think her original anti-gay-marriage stance was sincere in the first place. But even without a recantation she still would have been supported, because her pluses (much like Obama’s in 2008) trump her negatives for the left, and the left feels no need to be consistent in its principles. As a liberal/left woman, she is a member of a protected group, and the left also knows that she can be counted on to do the left’s bidding, for the most part, once her presidency is secured.

[Hat tip: Instapundit.]

Posted in Men and women; marriage and divorce and sex, Politics | 74 Replies

Before Brendon Eich, they came for the Mormons

The New Neo Posted on April 5, 2014 by neoApril 5, 2014

Read it.

Posted in Liberty, Men and women; marriage and divorce and sex, Religion | 18 Replies

Mozilla: in the Silicon Valley bubble

The New Neo Posted on April 5, 2014 by neoApril 5, 2014

The folks at Mozilla may yet live to regret their decision in cooperating with the forcing out of Brendan Eich. Apparently the internet giant has been getting a lot of negative reaction to its jettisoning of Eich for his 2008 contribution in support of California’s Proposition 8.

I have no idea whether this will end up hurting Mozilla, but I doubt very much that Mozilla anticipated even the possibility. The folks at Mozilla travel in a world in which PC thought dominates, and if you don’t believe me, take Nate Silver’s word for it (and after the 2012 election, I’m inclined to take Nate Silver’s word for just about anything):

I checked the records for some of the largest technology companies in Silicon Valley: specifically those that were in the Fortune 500 as of 2008. The list includes Hewlett-Packard, Intel, Cisco Systems, Apple, Google, Sun Microsystems, eBay, Oracle, Yahoo, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Symantec. I limited the search to donors who listed California as their location.

In total between these 11 companies, 83 percent of employee donations were in opposition to Proposition 8. So Eich was in a 17 percent minority relative to the top companies in Silicon Valley…

At Intel, 60 percent of employee donations were in support of Proposition 8. By contrast, at Apple, 94 percent of employee donations were made in opposition to Proposition 8. The opposition was even higher at Google, where 96 percent of employee donations were against it, including $100,000 from co-founder Sergey Brin.

There isn’t much data on Mozilla…But it’s likely that employee sentiment at Mozilla is much like that at Google. The organizations share a lot in common…

The point is that many of these companies are staffed by people so heavily in support of gay marriage, and are immersed in an environment that is also so strongly supportive, that they probably have forgotten that the entire country is not quite like that—and that even a significant number of people who are in favor of gay marriage may not be in favor of forcing someone who’s against it to resign. Mozilla’s business, however, is not limited to Silicon Valley or even California, a fact those in charge who helped to force Eich out may sometimes forget. It’s even possible that Mozilla may be hoist on its own petard, and experience unforeseen economic consequences for its actions.

[ADDENDUM: And by the way, there’s a world of difference between boycotting a company for its company policies and company actions—in this case, facilitating Eich’s “resignation”—and threatening a boycott to force a company to get rid of a CEO or any employee for his/her private, personal, non-company and non-performance-related political beliefs. A world of difference, although both are legal.]

Posted in Liberals and conservatives; left and right, Men and women; marriage and divorce and sex | 34 Replies

Don’t worry, folks

The New Neo Posted on April 5, 2014 by neoApril 5, 2014

I noticed that, for whatever reason, a “worry” theme has emerged today in my posts (see also this).

Which gave me the idea for a musical interlude from one of my very favorite groups:

And as a bonus:

Posted in Music | 9 Replies

After nearly a quarter century of global warming worry…

The New Neo Posted on April 5, 2014 by neoApril 5, 2014

…it seems we’re about where we began:

globalwarmingPoll

If you look at the chart, you’ll see that, so far, worry about global warming peaked around 2000 and again in the years 2006-2008. I’m not sure what was happening in 2000 (Al Gore’s presidential campaign?) to cause this, but it was 2006 when his movie came out and he won an Oscar, and 2007 when he received the Nobel prize.

From the Gallup report:

Politics remain a powerful predictor of Americans’ worries about global warming, with more than half of Democrats saying they worry about it a great deal, compared with 29% of independents and 16% of Republicans…

Young Americans aged 18 to 29 are more worried about global warming than older adults, particularly those 50 and older…

Worry about global warming is not related to education in any systematic way; those with postgraduate education are no more worried than those with a high school education or less.

If I were a global warming activist (or is it an anti-global warming activist?) I’d be perturbed by the failure of my propaganda to make a long-term change in people’s point of view on this. I also know that nothing will stop global warming activists from trying. The people I know who are dedicated to this truly think we are facing Armageddon.

Posted in Politics, Science, Uncategorized | 11 Replies

Don’t tell a worrier to stop worrying

The New Neo Posted on April 5, 2014 by neoApril 5, 2014

It will only make things worse.

And they’re likely to get mad at you in the process.

I’ll bet all you non-worriers have done it to the worriers in your life: told them the equivalent of “Just stop it. It doesn’t do you any good, and most of the stuff you worry about never happens anyway.”

True, true, true, say the worriers, if they’re being honest. But if they’re being honest they also say, “Easier said than done, non-worrier. Easier said than done.”

It’s not that it’s impossible. In fact, an entire approach called cognitive therapy has evolved to teach the worrier how to do it:

People who are working with a cognitive therapist often practice the use of more flexible ways to think and respond, learning to ask themselves whether their [negative] thoughts are completely true, and whether those thoughts are helping them to meet their goals. Thoughts that do not meet this description may then be shifted to something more accurate or helpful, leading to more positive emotion, more desirable behavior, and movement toward the person’s goals. Cognitive therapy takes a skill-building approach, where the therapist helps the person to learn and practice these skills independently, eventually “becoming his or her own therapist.”

A similar discipline called Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy preceded cognitive therapy by about a decade:

One of the fundamental premises of REBT is that humans, in most cases, do not merely get upset by unfortunate adversities, but also by how they construct their views of reality through their language, evaluative beliefs, meanings and philosophies about the world, themselves and others.

…REBT claims that people to a large degree consciously and unconsciously construct emotional difficulties such as self-blame, self-pity, clinical anger, hurt, guilt, shame, depression and anxiety, and behaviors and behavior tendencies like procrastination, over-compulsiveness, avoidance, addiction and withdrawal by the means of their irrational and self-defeating thinking, emoting and behaving. REBT is then applied as an educational process in which the therapist often active-directively teaches the client how to identify irrational and self-defeating beliefs and philosophies which in nature are rigid, extreme, unrealistic, illogical and absolutist, and then to forcefully and actively question and dispute them and replace them with more rational and self-helping ones.

It’s different than just saying “stop that!” What these therapists do is to help clients identify the individual and specific patterns of self-talk that do them in, and to develop counter-statements that make sense to them and give the world a more positive spin.

So, going back to the research I linked at the beginning of this post:

For the study, 71 female participants were shown graphic images and asked to put a positive spin on them while their brain activity was recorded. …

“The worriers actually showed a paradoxical backfiring effect in their brains when asked to decrease their negative emotions,” Moser said. “This suggests they have a really hard time putting a positive spin on difficult situations and actually make their negative emotions worse even when they are asked to think positively.”

The study focused on women because they are twice as likely as men to suffer from anxiety related problems and previously reported sex differences in brain structure and function could have obscured the results.

Moser said the findings have implications in the way negative thinkers approach difficult situations.

“You can’t just tell your friend to think positively or to not worry ”“ that’s probably not going to help them,” he said.

I’d love to see a study that compares worrier subjects’ brain reactions before treatment with cognitive and/or rational emotive therapy and their brain reactions after.

But I worry that that will never happen.

Posted in Health, Science, Therapy, Uncategorized | 4 Replies

Could it be…

The New Neo Posted on April 5, 2014 by neoApril 5, 2014

…that Flight 370’s black box ping has been heard by a Chinese ship?

We’ve had so many previous reports that have turned out to be unrelated to Flight 370 that I’m highly skeptical that this one will turn out to be anything, either.

I think that, if the box is ever located, it will be on something resembling the time scale of Air France Flight 447. The recovery of that airplane’s flight recorder took approximately two years. In addition, it was known from the start where the aircraft had probably gone down, and some debris that was spotted as early as a day later included an airplane seat, highly likely to be from the plane. Then:

Early on 6 June 2009, five days after Flight 447 disappeared, two male bodies, the first to be recovered from the crashed aircraft, were brought on board the Caboclo along with a seat, a nylon backpack containing a computer and vaccination card and a leather briefcase containing a boarding pass for the Air France flight. The following day, 7 June, search crews recovered the Airbus’s vertical stabilizer, the first major piece of wreckage to be discovered.

And yet it took two more years to find the plane’s black boxes. So, considering how little we still know about Flight 370, it would be nearly a miracle to have heard a ping at this point.

Posted in Disaster | 7 Replies

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