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A blog about political change, among other things

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Kathleen Sebelius: good party apparatchik

The New Neo Posted on October 8, 2013 by neoOctober 8, 2013

Either Kathleen Sebelius has a remarkably deadpan sense of humor, or she’s being serious in her piece in USA Today entitled, “HealthCare.gov simple, user-friendly.”

I doubt that even those who are in favor of Obamacare think the government website for the exchanges is “simple” or “user-friendly.” But Sebelius’ article is not meant as a joke, although she is not so stupid or deluded as to actually believe what she’s saying. It’s pap to placate the masses; she thinks we’re that stupid.

And perhaps she’s correct. Maybe we are just that stupid. After all, we elected Obama twice, the second time after he had pretty much revealed his character and modus operandi.

Sebelius wants to tell us that wait times at the website are shorter than they were before! Isn’t that fabulous? All the problems we had were merely because of high demand because Obamacare’s so great! She can name two actual people who are happier with their health insurance under the exchanges than what they had before!

Just think how much contempt Sebelius and company must have for the American public to be able to write at this point that the website is “simple and user-friendly, and the coverage is affordable.” Even the Obama administration’s mouthpiece CNN keeps finding huge problems. One might think that Sebelius and the administration would gain more credibility by admitting that the problems with the website are more serious than can be explained by high demand (a demand that could not possibly have been unexpected). But it’s important to realize why they want above all to avoid that perception, because if the government can’t manage to design a website properly with years of lead-in time, how can it even begin to handle a system as complex as Obamacare?

Posted in Health care reform, Politics | 13 Replies

Sticker shock on Obamacare

The New Neo Posted on October 7, 2013 by neoOctober 7, 2013

There are a lot of surprised people in California now that more Obamacare details are coming out:

In California, 1.9 million people buy plans on the open market, according to officials with Covered California, the state’s new health insurance exchange. And many of them are steaming mad.

“There’s going to be a number of people surprised” by their bills, said Jonathan Wu, a co-founder of ValuePenguin, a consumer finance website. “The upper-middle class are the people who are essentially being asked to foot the bill, and that’s true across the country.”

Covered California spokesman Dana Howard maintained that in public presentations the exchange has always made clear that there will be winners and losers under Obamacare.

“Some people will see an increase who are already on the individual market purchasing insurance,” he said, “but most people will not.”…

Both Vinson and Waschura have adjusted gross incomes greater than four times the federal poverty level — the cutoff for a tax credit. And while both said they anticipated their rates would go up, they didn’t realize they would rise so much.

“Of course, I want people to have health care,” Vinson said. “I just didn’t realize I would be the one who was going to pay for it personally.”

Raise your hand if you think Dana Howard has much of a clue how many people will actually see premiums go up and how many will see them go down. Also, the levels that premium payments are set this year are not necessarily what they will be next year, or the next—and those levels will to some measure depend on how many people sign up for Obamacare and how many people opt to pay the penalty instead—another unknown.

But it’s that last quote from Vinson that seems to encapsulate a common liberal mindset on Obamacare—or on government-funded benefits in general—that so infuriates conservatives. Who doesn’t “want people to have health care”? But the real question—and the real difference between the approaches of conservatives and liberals, inflammatory rhetoric aside—is how such a thing would be paid for, and especially whether it is possible to do so without putting an undue burden on the wage-earning tax-paying public.

Vinson, like so many people, uses the term “health care” to mean “health insurance,” but let’s gloss over that and stipulate that most people couldn’t afford the former (particularly if a major health problem were to arise) without having the latter. Vinson probably isn’t saying that she didn’t expect to pay for her own health insurance. She is saying that she expected to pay only for her own health insurance, not for the health insurance of those others she “of course” wants covered.

So the trillion-dollar question is: who did she expect would pay for their insurance?

It couldn’t have been the poor themselves who would pay. And if it wasn’t someone like Vinson, whose income clocks in at four times the poverty level—who would it have been? A good guess would be: people who are richer than Vinson.

It’s an interesting phenomenon that’s not at all uncommon among liberals; call it the “do it to Julia, not to me” phenomenon. In this case, something that is recognized as unfair and/or unwanted for oneself is acceptable if the responsibility is put on others instead, those people who for some reason are thought to deserve it more or to be able to absorb it better. But if it’s unfair for the first group, why is it suddenly fair for the second?

Perhaps some people such as Vinson haven’t thought it through even to that extent. Perhaps their thinking stops at the “Of course, I want people to have health care” point. That makes them good people in their own eyes: nice people, compassionate people, unlike those who disagree with them and are imagined to be mean people who do not “want people to have health care.” The idea that conservatives actually might also “want people to have health care” and yet be more realistic than liberals about the costs and benefits of such an undertaking, and might have different ideas about the best way to effect the greatest amount of health care for the greatest number of people, seems to be a foreign notion to many who think as Vinson does.

But hope springs eternal, even for them:

“I’m not against Obamacare,” Waschura said. “It’s just the initial shock. I’m holding out hope that there will be a correction over a handful of years.”

There’ll probably be a “correction” all right. It just might not be in the direction Waschura assumes.

[NOTE: Cross-posted at Legal Insurrection.]

Posted in Finance and economics, Health care reform, Liberals and conservatives; left and right | 78 Replies

Thoughts on the debt ceiling fight

The New Neo Posted on October 7, 2013 by neoOctober 7, 2013

It’s hard to get reliable information on what would actually happen if the debt ceiling were not raised.

Tom Coburn says it wouldn’t be such a big deal:

“We’ll continue to pay our interest, we’ll continue to redeem bonds, and we’ll issue new bonds to replace those. So it’s not entirely accurate,” Coburn said, saying that attention needs to focus on long-term solvency of government programs. “What we need to do is have a discussion.”

Coburn said negotiations over the budget and debt ceiling go hand in hand, because the debt ceiling is a myth.

“The debt ceiling and the CR are the same thing. There is no such thing as a debt ceiling in this country because it’s never been not increased, and that’s why we’re $17 trillion in debt,” Coburn said.

Naturally, the administration says otherwise:

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew warned Congress that if it doesn’t raise the debt limit by Oct. 17, when the Treasury predicts the limit will be reached, it is “playing with fire.”

If you look at the comments to this piece at National Review on Coburn’s statements, you’ll see that there’s a very wide (and adamantly-stated) difference of opinion on whether he’s right or wrong. So, which is it?

Jack Lew’s “playing with fire” remark can’t necessarily be credited either, because it fits in quite nicely with the usual fear-mongering we’ve grown accustomed to from the Obama administration.

So—is the boy crying “wolf,” or is that wolf really poised to attack?

Oh—and did Obama just blink on the debt ceiling, at least in the short term? If so, that would be good news. But no statement of this administration can be trusted to mean what it seems to mean.

The White House and the Democrats would have us believe that what the Republicans are doing re the debt ceiling is unprecedented and one-sided brinksmanship of the worst sort (note the left’s rhetoric on the subject), and that no president should be negotiating with such a vile crew. Is the US public buying it? They certainly were at the beginning, but as time has gone on, and the theatrics of the administration have increased and become more transparently manipulative, perhaps the White House is getting the idea that it’s not going quite as planned.

Republicans insist there is nothing unprecedented or unusual about what’s happening—except for the administration’s refusal to negotiate (see also this).

I feel uncertain about any prognostications I might make on this, but my gut feeling each time it has happened has always been that Congress and the president will come to a short-term stopgap solution and then kick the can down the road. Right now, both are probably waiting for the 2014 elections, hoping to increase their power and leverage at that point.

[ADDENDUM: Obama seems to be contemplating positioning himself as the reasonable, conciliatory Democrat, and Reid as the nasty hard-ass. Interesting. That’s nothing new, of course. He’s long tried to give the message that Washington DC is screwed up, but he’s not part of that—he stands aside, looking down from his gentle Olympian heights of rationality.]

[ADDENDUM II: John Hinderaker of Powerline weighs in.]

Posted in Finance and economics, Politics | 17 Replies

Spam email of the day

The New Neo Posted on October 7, 2013 by neoOctober 7, 2013

Poor Yahoo. It seems to be having some major difficulties with spelling today. And oddly enough, it also forgot my Yahoo username and addresses me generically:

Dear User
We noticed your Account was Accessed from an unusual Location,
And we noticed some Inllegal and spam activities perfomed with it.

For safety reason we have Placed Your Account under monitiring.
And your account will be Terminated in the next 24 hour, else your Re-verify Your account, and help control spam and fraud activites.
Click here to Re-verify Free
Thank you,
Yahoo e-mail team

One would almost think that English wasn’t the Yahoo e-mail team’s first language.

Or even its second or third.

And that it had never heard of Spell Check.

But how kind and helpful the team is, to be monitiring Inllegal spam and fraud activites perfomed.

Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Replies

In China: the IKEA theme park

The New Neo Posted on October 6, 2013 by neoOctober 6, 2013

[Hat tip: Althouse.]

Going to IKEA in China is a bit different from the way it is in the US. It’s like a theme park—a really really dirty theme park:

The store is gripped by a kind of anarchy that would rarely be seen, or tolerated, in its country of origin. There are picnickers everywhere – their tea flasks and plastic bags of snacks lining the showroom tables. Young lovers pose for “selfies” in mock-up apartments they do not live in. Toddlers in split pants play on model furniture with their naked parts coming in contact with all surfaces.

On a king-size bed in the middle of the largest showroom, a little boy wakes from a nap next to his (also sleeping) grandmother. When the old woman casually helps the boy urinate into an empty water bottle, dripping liquid liberally on the grey mattress under his feet, most passers-by seem not to mind or even notice. The exception is a young woman who elbows her disinterested boyfriend: “Look, he’s peeing into a bottle!”…

For many, going to Ikea may not be too dissimilar to visiting a theme park. Generally, Doctoroff explains, Chinese people tend to take a more recreational approach to consumption. “Shopping in China is far more about the experience itself than it is in the West,” he says.

Sometimes, it’s simply something you do to escape the heat and enjoy a good nap. Unperturbed by the commotion around her, a young woman slumbers peacefully on a bed in a showroom until her friend, awake at the foot end and checking her phone, gently pokes her. She sits up and casts a sleepy eye around her.

“I was just tired,” Xujin, 18, replies when asked about her choice of napping spot, seemingly confused by the question. “I don’t mind all the other people. It was very comfortable.”

Sometimes I take a recreational approach to shopping, too. I’ve been known to go to IKEA just to see the place (and to get some exercise—it’s BIG) but I’ve never actually bought something there.

However, I can’t say I’ve taken a nap there, either. Or peed in the bed.

And I’m wondering why so many Chinese people are getting so tired in the middle of the day. It reminds me of this:

Posted in Pop culture | 13 Replies

Don’t mess with WWII vets

The New Neo Posted on October 6, 2013 by neoOctober 6, 2013

They may be old, but there’s life (and fight) in them yet.

Posted in Military, Uncategorized | 7 Replies

I already liked Scott Walker…

The New Neo Posted on October 6, 2013 by neoOctober 6, 2013

…and now I like him even more for this.

Posted in Uncategorized | 34 Replies

One down…

The New Neo Posted on October 5, 2013 by neoOctober 5, 2013

…one to go:

In a stealthy seaside assault in Somalia and in a raid in Libya’s capital, U.S. military forces on Saturday struck out against Islamic extremists who have carried out terrorist attacks in East Africa, snatching a man allegedly involved in the bombings of U.S. embassies 15 years ago but missing a man linked to last month’s attack on a Nairobi shopping mall.

A U.S. Navy SEAL team slipped ashore near a southern Somalia town before the al-Qaida-linked militants rose for dawn prayers, U.S. and Somali officials told The Associated Press. The raid on a house in the town of Barawe targeted a specific al-Qaida suspect related to the mall attack, but the operation did not get its target, one current and one former U.S. military official told AP.

You never know if these things are quite as reported, of course, because there’s quite a bit of psychological warfare going on as well. But it sounds as though the wheels of justice ground slow but exceedingly fine for the perpetrator of the 1998 Al Qaeda attacks on the US embassies in Tanzania (Dar es Salaam) and Kenya (Nairobi).

The Nairobi bombing was the worst in terms of casualties, and it took an especially large toll on Kenyan citizens:

In Nairobi, approximately 212 people were killed, and an estimated 4,000 wounded; in Dar es Salaam, the attack killed at least 11 and wounded 85…Although the attacks were directed at American facilities, the vast majority of casualties were local citizens; 12 Americans were killed, including two Central Intelligence Agency employees in the Nairobi embassy, Tom Shah and Molly Huckaby Hardy, and one U.S. Marine, Sergeant Jesse Aliganga, a Marine Security Guard at the Nairobi embassy.

The man Wiki lists as having been the mastermind of the 1998 bombings, Fazul Abdullah Mohammed (the leader of al Qaeda’s East African operations), actually had already been killed in 2011 after being stopped at a checkpoint near Mogadishu. The man reportedly captured today is a Libyan, long-time al Qaeda leader Nazih Abdul-Hamed al-Ruqai. He’s been reported captured before, twice, but both reports were in error. Let’s hope the news of his capture is correct this time.

And Navy SEALS are among the bravest people on earth. But that goes almost without saying.

Posted in Military, Terrorism and terrorists | 13 Replies

Obama: fear itself

The New Neo Posted on October 5, 2013 by neoOctober 6, 2013

Instead of exerting a calming influence, Obama ramps up the fear connected with the shutdown.

Watch his demeanor, too; chilling:

But actually this is nothing new, it’s how Obama rolls. Why do I say that? It was also his reaction (although back then it was more subtly expressed) when he was candidate Obama, during the financial crisis of September 2008.

Here’s what I observed at the time:

Obama’s response has not only been more partisan [than McCain’s], it is also more alarmist. Felix Salmon of Finance Blog compares and contrasts the candidates’ statements on the crisis, and Obama’s comes up short in more departments, including one area I had also noticed: Obama has publicly labeled it “the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression.”

…[I]f Obama keeps talking like this, he might do his bit to contribute to its ultimately fitting that definition.

Obama would do well to remember that it was a fellow-Democrat who understood the principle that investor panic can make these things a great deal worse, and who said as much during that Great Depression, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

Obama is reckless to speak as though a such a catastrophe has already occurred, drumming up fear rather than attempting to calm it through a realistic appraisal of what we are facing right now.

Why would he want to do that? Obama knew that the worse the crisis seemed, the better it was for his chances of election. By immediately painting Republicans as having caused a crisis of the utmost severity, John McCain as out of touch (which he actually was, unfortunately), and himself as the sober solution—despite his complete lack of knowledge of economics—Obama knew it would almost guarantee him the presidency. And the worse the crisis was perceived to be, the more time the public would give him to fix it when he was president, and the longer he could go on blaming Bush for the nation’s problems.

Same here, although of course it’s not Obama running for election. But the Congressional election of 2014 looms, and he’d love to have a Democratic Congress. Making the crisis worse and demonizing Republicans for it (as though he has no options here) may seem like a winning hand.

[NOTE: By the way, FDR actually did something not all that different in the leadup to his 1932 inauguration. He may have uttered the “fear itself” quote after he was president, but beforehand this was his attitude:

Hoover, according to Alter, tried to involve Roosevelt in end-of-term actions, suggesting to the then-President-elect that they jointly appoint delegates to a World Economic Conference to be held in June 1933 (three months after FDR’s inauguration), a highly touted meeting which was arranged to tackle the global Depression. Roosevelt rejected the overture, fearing that his New Deal would be seen as just a continuation of the Hoover Administration if he worked with the departing President.

Alter wrote that on February 18, just two weeks before inauguration day, Hoover tried again to enlist Roosevelt into a joint effort — including a bank holiday — to stabilize markets, but again Roosevelt rebuffed the President.

In his book, Alter quotes James Warburg, a member of Roosevelt’s inner circle. The Roosevelt brain trust “wanted it to get as bad as it was going to get before he took office, so that he could come in on the turn rather than in the continuing downward spiral.”

For his part, years later, Hoover wrote the bank crisis that ensued “was the most political and unnecessary bank panic in all our history” and “it could have been cured by simple cooperation.”

There’s much more on that score. I have some notes for a longer post I plan to write—some day!—on the subject.]

[ADDENDUM: I noticed that the link to the Salmon article in the quote from my post from 2008 seems to go to a shorter version of the article that doesn’t have the full quote. So for anyone who wants to read the whole quote I’m referring to, here’s a link to another article with it, and here’s the important section of the quote:

Obama said that this latest development in the financial world is “as bad as anything we’ve ever seen”¦This is a serious, serious situation. We’ll have a lot of rebuilding to do. This turmoil is a major threat to our economy. There are too many folks in the U.S. and Washington D.C. who weren’t mending the store. This is the most serious financial condition since the Great Depression.”]

[ADDENDUM II: More here from Larry Kudlow.]

Posted in Finance and economics, Historical figures, Obama | 40 Replies

Coming out as a Republican…

The New Neo Posted on October 5, 2013 by neoOctober 5, 2013

…African-American academic.

And sociology professor, yet.

Marvin Scott of Butler University tells his tale.

Posted in Leaving the circle: political apostasy, Liberals and conservatives; left and right, Race and racism | 11 Replies

Cassandra Koestler: if the tale’s too terrifying

The New Neo Posted on October 5, 2013 by neoOctober 5, 2013

[NOTE: I’m planning to recycle a slightly edited version of some older posts on the World War II era that I think bear repeating. This one originally appeared about three years ago. People often think that knowledge of Nazi genocide only came out after the war ended. Many of the details, yes; but a great deal was known earlier and effectively ignored, as these quotes make clear.]

Remember, Cassandra’s curse was that she wouldn’t be believed even though she was given the gift of prophecy. Arthur Koestler wasn’t prophesying exactly, he was merely attempting to warn people based on actual events that were going on at the time—but still, he had trouble being believed when he tried to alert his readers and listeners to atrocities the Nazis were committing during World War II.

Koestler had his flaws, including a long devotion to Socialism. But, like his good friend Orwell (who shared that trait), he was a fierce opponent of Communism Soviet-style, having almost been burned in its fierce annihilative furnace early on.

He was also a tireless anti-Nazi. The following is what he had to say about that latter effort, and how hard it is to get people’s attention when it counts. The excerpts are from an essay Koestler wrote in 1944 entitled, “On Disbelieving Atrocities,” which appeared in his collection The Yogi and the Commissar (I’ve changed some of the paragraphing to make it easier to read):

There is a dream which keeps coming back to me at almost regular intervals; it is dark, and I am being murdered in some kind of thicket or brushwood; there is a busy road at no more than ten yards distance; I scream for help but nobody hears me, the crowd walks past, laughing and chatting.

I know that a great many people share, with individual variations, the same type of dream. I have quarrelled about it with analysts and I believe it to be an archtype in the Jungian sense: an expression of the individual’s ultimate loneliness when faced with death and cosmic violence; and his inability to communicate the unique horror of his experience. I further believe that it is the root of the ineffectiveness of our atrocity propaganda.

For, after all, you are the crowd who walk past laughing on the road; and there are a few of us, escaped victims or eyewitnesses of the things which happen in the thicket and who, haunted by our memories, go on screaming on the wireless, yelling at you in newspapers and in public meetings, theatres and cinemas.

Now and then we succeed in reaching your ear for a minute. I know it each time it happens by a certain dumb wonder on your faces, a faint glassy stare entering your eye, and I tell myself: now you have got them, now hold them, hold them, so that they will remain awake. But it only lasts a minute. You shake yourself like puppies who have got their fur wet; then the transparent screen descends again and you walk on, protected by the dream barrier which stifles all sound.

We, the screamers, have been at it now for about ten years. We started on the night when the epileptic van der Lubbe set fire to the German Parliament; we said that if you don’t quench those flames at once, they will spread all over the world; you thought we were maniacs. At present we have the mania of trying to tell you about the killing, by hot steam, mass-electrocution and live burial [Koestler seems to have been unaware of the gassing method that had come to be used most often by that time] of the total Jewish population of Europe.

So far three million have died. It is the greatest mass-killing in recorded history; and it goes on daily, hourly, as regularly as the ticking of your watch. I have photographs before me on the desk while I am writing this, and that accounts for my emotion and bitterness. People died to smuggle them out of Poland; they thought it was worth while. The facts have been published in pamphlets, White Books, newspapers, magazines and what not. But the other day I met one of the best-known American journalists over here. he told me that in the course of some recent public opinion survey nine out of ten average American citizens, when asked whether they believed that the Nazis commit atrocities, answered that it was all propaganda lies, and that they didn’t believe a word of it.

As to this country [Koestler was referring to Britain, where he was living at the time and writing for the war effort], I have been lecturing now for three years to the troops, and their attitude is the same. They don’t believe in concentration camps, they don’t believe in the starved children of Greece, in the shot hostages of France, in the mass-graves of Poland; they have never heard of Lidice, Treblinka or Belsen; you can convince them for an hour, they they shake themselves, their mental self-defence begins to work and in a week the shrug of incredulity has returned like a reflex temporarily weakened by a shock.

Clearly all this is becoming a mania with me and my like. Clearly we must suffer from some morbid obsession, whereas you others are healthy and normal. But the characteristic symptom of maniacs is that they lose contact with reality and live in a phantasy world. So, perhaps, it is the other way round: perhaps it is we, the screamers, who react in a sound and healthy way to the reality which surrounds us, whereas you are the neurotics who totter about in a screened phantasy world because you lack the faculty to face the facts. Were it not so, this war would have been avoided, and those murdered within sight of your day-dreaming eyes would be alive.

Why is it so difficult to hear the screaming? Much of it is self-protective: if we paid attention to all the pain and suffering in the world, we’d be paralyzed by empathy and unable to enjoy our own lives. What’s more, there’s often a sense of powerlessness to change things. To intervene effectively in time—because an ounce of prevention is most definitely worth a ton of cure—would require an understanding and prescience that seems beyond the ability of most people. Unfortunately.

[NOTE: This passage explains why it was that Eisenhower insisted the death camps be photographed, and that the films and photos be shown to the German people and to the world. He knew that otherwise, the terrible facts would not be believed. And, of course, Holocaust denial has become a popular and growing industry, anyway.]

[ADDENDUM: The full Koestler essay originally appeared in January of 1944 in the NY Times Magazine.]

Posted in Evil, History, Violence, War and Peace | 13 Replies

Okay, I confess I’m stumped

The New Neo Posted on October 5, 2013 by neoOctober 5, 2013

So what is it?

A whatchamacallit.

A whosawhatsis.

Actually, it’s a dodecahedron, and there are tons of them over much of ancient Europe.

Dodec

But to what purpose? No one has a clue, but to me they look a bit like toys, something resembling what’s used for jacks.

It’s dated from somewhere around the second and third century AD, and has been popping up everywhere in Europe. Archeologists have found the majority of them in France, Switzerland and parts of Germany where the Romans once ruled.

But its use remains a mystery, mostly because the Romans who usually kept meticulous accounts make no mention of it in records. And with sizes varying from 4 to 11 cm, and some bearing decorative knobs, it only gets harder to pinpoint a function.

Four to eleven centimeters is small, but not as small as jacks. I’m stumped; any ideas?

Posted in Uncategorized | 14 Replies

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