It’s California primary time
Here’s a thread to discuss the California primary. Maybe we can take bets on how long it will take to count the votes? California is notorious for its dilatory tactics in that regard.
I’m especially curious about the LA mayoral race and Spencer Pratt. Here’s a poll, for what it’s worth:
A recent poll by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times shows a closely contested race among the top three candidates, while 11 other candidates are trailing significantly. The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, has Bass leading with 26% support among likely voters. Raman follows closely at 25%, with Pratt at 22%.
All are within the margin of error. Interesting.
For the governorship, we have this:
Multiple polls found the crowded race has narrowed to a three-way contest between Democrats Xavier Becerra, a former health secretary and state attorney general, and Tom Steyer, a billionaire climate activist, and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host.
With its lack of cinematic or political stars, California’s gubernatorial race was atypical from the jump. But a mid-April scandal upended it, essentially allowing candidates to restart their campaigns. Still, Tuesday’s primary could bring unexpected results because more voters than usual held on to their ballots until the final stretch of the competitive race.
Polls for that race show this:
Three key polls were released in recent days and all three of them found former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra several points ahead of both Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton and investor Tom Steyer. PPIC has Becerra at 23%, IGS has him at 25% and Emerson shows him 28% of the vote. No other candidate received more than 22% of the vote in any of the polls.
Hilton is at 21% and Steyer at 22%.
Along about Thursday afternoon I expect one CA election official to call another and say something to the effect of “we need another 20,000 votes to get Xavier over the top. Can you get me those by tomorrow?”
Of course we won’t hear that conversation. The only person who has those conversations made public is Donald Trump. But it will happen. We can count on it. And the person receiving that call will come through with 20,000 more ballots. By Friday afternoon. And we here in the eastern time zone will wake up Saturday morning with the race called for Becerra.
“A recent poll by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times”
“Has Bass leading with 26% support among likely voters. Raman follows closely at 25%, with Pratt at 22%.”
Not what Kalshi and Polymarket betting markets are saying. This is real money not talk and my trust in a Berkeley/LA Times poll is less than zero.
Chances of advancing to November election – ONLY (2) can
As of 2:36 pm Pacific time
Karen Bass – 93%
Spencer Pratt – 77%
Raman Noodle – 26%
Polymarket – Share of Vote
Bass- 66%
Pratt – 24%
Raman Noodle – 13%
$3,000,000 bet on Pratt
$250,00 on Bass
$350,000 on Raman Noodle
F,
I’m sure the same will happen in the LA mayors race. It’s deep blue California after all.
Steyer has been flooding the California airwaves with all kinds of ads, each of which seems to be aimed at a different segment of the Democratic constituency. They’re on more than any other TV commercials, including those for expensive pharmaceuticals — it’s unimaginable how much he’s spent on them so far. But I wonder if the sheer ubiquity of them makes people find him untrustworthy… like he’s trying too hard to convince them that he’s a great guy? (The fact that he’s spending so much while running as a social justice warrior might also be a factor.) In any case, it would be good to know — assuming he loses — that even a billionaire can’t buy the election.
California 3 Card Voting Monte
Marxists are going to push this
Maybe we can take bets on how long it will take to count the votes? California is notorious for its dilatory tactics in that regard.
My guess is that the reason for those dilatory tactics is because the fabrications that F mentions cost money. If they have a target number, they can save money. Also, by avoiding a massive shot-in-the-dark vote production, they can reduce the likelihood that they get caught.
I think there is evidence a Billionaires can buy an election ,, just not for himself .
“Hilton is at 21% and Steyer at 22%.”
“No other candidate received more than 22% of the vote in any of the polls.”
That includes the other Republican, Chad Bianco. I’m going to be mightily POd if his voters could have put Hilton in the runoff. It has been clear for weeks that Bianco is not going to make it into the runoff but he refused to drop out.
We have a commenter here, I think, who said he’d sent in his ballot for Bianco some time ago. And of course he has that right if he thinks Bianco would be best for the state.