It’s California primary time
Here’s a thread to discuss the California primary. Maybe we can take bets on how long it will take to count the votes? California is notorious for its dilatory tactics in that regard.
I’m especially curious about the LA mayoral race and Spencer Pratt. Here’s a poll, for what it’s worth:
A recent poll by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times shows a closely contested race among the top three candidates, while 11 other candidates are trailing significantly. The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, has Bass leading with 26% support among likely voters. Raman follows closely at 25%, with Pratt at 22%.
All are within the margin of error. Interesting.
For the governorship, we have this:
Multiple polls found the crowded race has narrowed to a three-way contest between Democrats Xavier Becerra, a former health secretary and state attorney general, and Tom Steyer, a billionaire climate activist, and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host.
With its lack of cinematic or political stars, California’s gubernatorial race was atypical from the jump. But a mid-April scandal upended it, essentially allowing candidates to restart their campaigns. Still, Tuesday’s primary could bring unexpected results because more voters than usual held on to their ballots until the final stretch of the competitive race.
Polls for that race show this:
Three key polls were released in recent days and all three of them found former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra several points ahead of both Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton and investor Tom Steyer. PPIC has Becerra at 23%, IGS has him at 25% and Emerson shows him 28% of the vote. No other candidate received more than 22% of the vote in any of the polls.
Hilton is at 21% and Steyer at 22%.
Along about Thursday afternoon I expect one CA election official to call another and say something to the effect of “we need another 20,000 votes to get Xavier over the top. Can you get me those by tomorrow?”
Of course we won’t hear that conversation. The only person who has those conversations made public is Donald Trump. But it will happen. We can count on it. And the person receiving that call will come through with 20,000 more ballots. By Friday afternoon. And we here in the eastern time zone will wake up Saturday morning with the race called for Becerra.
“A recent poll by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times”
“Has Bass leading with 26% support among likely voters. Raman follows closely at 25%, with Pratt at 22%.”
Not what Kalshi and Polymarket betting markets are saying. This is real money not talk and my trust in a Berkeley/LA Times poll is less than zero.
Chances of advancing to November election – ONLY (2) can
As of 2:36 pm Pacific time
Karen Bass – 93%
Spencer Pratt – 77%
Raman Noodle – 26%
Polymarket – Share of Vote
Bass- 66%
Pratt – 24%
Raman Noodle – 13%
$3,000,000 bet on Pratt
$250,00 on Bass
$350,000 on Raman Noodle
F,
I’m sure the same will happen in the LA mayors race. It’s deep blue California after all.
Steyer has been flooding the California airwaves with all kinds of ads, each of which seems to be aimed at a different segment of the Democratic constituency. They’re on more than any other TV commercials, including those for expensive pharmaceuticals — it’s unimaginable how much he’s spent on them so far. But I wonder if the sheer ubiquity of them makes people find him untrustworthy… like he’s trying too hard to convince them that he’s a great guy? (The fact that he’s spending so much while running as a social justice warrior might also be a factor.) In any case, it would be good to know — assuming he loses — that even a billionaire can’t buy the election.
California 3 Card Voting Monte
Marxists are going to push this
Maybe we can take bets on how long it will take to count the votes? California is notorious for its dilatory tactics in that regard.
My guess is that the reason for those dilatory tactics is because the fabrications that F mentions cost money. If they have a target number, they can save money. Also, by avoiding a massive shot-in-the-dark vote production, they can reduce the likelihood that they get caught.
I think there is evidence a Billionaires can buy an election ,, just not for himself .
“Hilton is at 21% and Steyer at 22%.”
“No other candidate received more than 22% of the vote in any of the polls.”
That includes the other Republican, Chad Bianco. I’m going to be mightily POd if his voters could have put Hilton in the runoff. It has been clear for weeks that Bianco is not going to make it into the runoff but he refused to drop out.
We have a commenter here, I think, who said he’d sent in his ballot for Bianco some time ago. And of course he has that right if he thinks Bianco would be best for the state.
Kate, I do not think Republicans in California have the luxury of a principled vote. We have to vote strategically. That can put us in uncomfortable positions. For example in 2003 I ended up voting for Arnold even though Tom McClintock was much more conservative. But in my estimation it was between Arnold and the Democrat Bustamante and McClintock did not have a chance.
I stand by my choice. Arnold did some damage like signing cap and trade and campaigning for the Proposition 14 top two primary system but much less damage than Bustamante.
I would do the same as you, Bob Wilson, if I lived in California. I will be there in early July, visiting relatives. It may be that we still won’t have the primary results by then.
Becerra was a useless Cabinet official and would do California no good at all.
LIVE: 2026 PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS (NJ, IA, SD, NM, MT, CA)
https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2026/06/live-2026-primary-election-results-nj.html
Well, I voted for Hilton although my choice was Bianco. I live in Riverside County, and I think Bianco is a good man. Frankly, Hilton does not impress me at all. But strategic voting even though my gut said it was useless.
My wife was torn. I told her, ‘it’s your vote, vote for whoever you like’. I would have said that even if I had known that it would PO Bob Wilson.
We know deep down that our votes don’t matter much. When all is said and done, Californians will get whoever the Leftist masses in the coastal enclaves want; and the rest of the state will grit our teeth and dream of getting out even if it is not possible. Relocating is tough and nigh impossible–except to the Old Folks Home– once your 91st birthday is in the rear view mirror.
If I am proven wrong about the election, I would prefer my Crow half baked.
I’m in California, I voted by mail 2 weeks ago. It’s just wishful thinking that a Republican will win high office, Democrats have a super-majority in the Legislature and hold all the Big Seats. Ballot harvesting. Same day registration/voting. And the 800,000 stale voter registrations that haven’t been purged keep the status quo.
Looks like Becerra and Hilton will be in the runoff. So despite the non-partisan election CA ends up with Dem and GOP after all.
Porter and Mahan have dropped out.
Looks to me like state-wide races in California will be one D and one R. That’s surely a change? Not that the Rs will win. However, Hilton is currently ~150,000 votes ahead of Becerra, and one hopes Bianco’s 500,000+ will go to Hilton in the general.
Oops. Hilton +120,000. Wishful thinking on my part.
Let’s be clear;
the demonrats in Calif will not allow any Republican to win in LA or for governor.
The demonrats will find a way – fraudulently if needed – to have Karen Bass win in LA and Becerra for governor.
The reality is that Calif is, and has been for a long time, a socialist state and the electoral procedures there are rigged to keep it that way.
The level of fraud needed to insure the demonrats win is directly proportional to how long it takes to “count” all the voters.
If the vote count is completed within one day, the voters picked the demonrats to win.
If the vote count takes many days, the demonrats are at work creating votes for themselves.
Frankly , I am astonished that anybody believes that any Republican in Calf can win an important political seat.
Speaking of Karen Bass; the “empty” water reservoir that contributed to the disastrous wild fires there is………drum roll please…..still EMPTY. But do not fret, many (most?) LA voters will vote for Bass.
This is really un-F’n-believable.
Thanks Oldflyer. Your state thanks you too. 😉
Even if Hilton does not win in November, having a republican on the ballot at the top of the ticket, will motivate Republicans to turn out.
There’s a lot of negativity by California Republicans, but Carl deMaio of ReformCalifornia is not giving up. he is raising money for the fight to win the California vote count battle.
There will be over 300,000 rejected ballots due to signature mismatch. The ridiculous California election laws allow these to be “cured.” Here’s where the Democrats excel. They send their union troops out to contact the Democrat rejected voters and get them to fix their ballots. Bingo another Democrat vote. Demaio will do the same thing with Republican voters with rejected ballots.
The votes are counted at county registrars and there’s a lot of shenanigans there. ReformCalifornia will send out monitors and be ready to call in legal help to stop this.
If you live in California or care about the national ballot since California representatives may represent the margin to give Republicans control of the house, donate some money to reformCalifornia
https://www.reformcalifornia.org/