The always-admirable Richard Fernandez has written this about the Lone Wolf terrorist:
It is a mistake to dismiss the Lone Wolves as “cowardly and depraved”. On the contrary, their tactics require a willingness to die and the intelligent use of abundant dual-use materials that is rarely if ever equaled by the political leadership of the West…
…attack [Lone Wolves] do, surprisingly yet unsurprisingly. It is Western leadership that is more deserving of criticism for turning in such a poor defensive performance despite their vast resource superiority. Obsessed with looking good, timid to the point of inactivity, determined at all costs to proclaim their own virtue, the Western elites have proved singularly incapable of combating their vastly weaker foes. The ritualistic candle-lighting, trite speeches, frightened processions and self-congratulation of the political class are completely ineffective against the laser-like menace of their foes. They haven’t noticed but the voting audience is starting to.
I agree with all of that. But in addition I would add that the West has a huge problem that’s inherent in our entire system of law and punishment. Western law is designed to balance the rights of the community—including its right to protect itself—with the rights of the individual, and we have made a conscious effort that if we must err (and being humans, we are going to err) we’d rather it be on the side of protecting the individual against government tyranny.
The prospect of predicting who will be a Lone Wolf terrorist and stopping that person in time is one that falls into that dilemma. Many Lone Wolves are citizens, born in the West, and even those who are not have certain rights if they are legal immigrants (fewer if they are illegal immigrants, but we have seen that most of these people don’t fall into that category).
Another dilemma the West faces has to do with at what point we decide an act is criminal. Ordinarily, we don’t prosecute thought-crime, and if we were to decide to do so we would have fallen pretty far down the slippery slope. Until they commit a crime, what have Lone Wolves done? Expressed a jihadi thought on Facebook, perhaps? Is that—or should that be—a crime? That’s why some jihadis are caught by using agents posing as jihadis, to be witness to the plotting of the actual crime. But Lone Wolves ordinarily have no confederates and need no confederates, so agents are less likely to be able to trap them.
And then there’s the problem of numbers. At this point, there are so many possible Lone Wolves in each Western country that monitoring them would almost certainly overwhelm the systems. How to distinguish the serious ones from the mere talkers is the question. Recent travel to a country such as Syria would be a huge clue. But you can’t lock someone up for that, you can only monitor that person more closely.
In the case of a Lone Wolf, even monitoring their communications after getting permission to do so from the proper authorities would not necessarily reveal the plotting of a crime, because Lone Wolves don’t have to coordinate with accomplices. Steal a truck, drive down a street and veer off into pedestrians, and you’ve done the deed. It’s a rather brilliant parsimony of terrorist creativity, simple and effective and capable of being executed by almost anyone should they care to do so.
Of course, one might say that so many immigrants from countries known for jihadi terrorist behavior shouldn’t have been let into the West in the first place. That is where the governments of Europe have been very slow on the uptake. But those decisions are inherently difficult, too; who is okay and who is not, and from where (as Trump found out recently with his EO and its courtroom fate so far). And many of the people involved (the parents or grandparents of today’s Lone Wolves, for example) emigrated to the West long ago. Their children and/or grandchildren are native-born citizens, or at least legal residents (European countries differ on that score).
The cat is out of the bag. Pandora’s box has been opened. The horse has left the barn. The die has been cast. Take whatever expression you want, the point is that solutions are far from easy and some of the more effective-seeming ones would compromise our entire legal system and our liberties. And even then there would be no guarantee that Lone Wolves would be caught in time.
