The story of the attack on Jussie Smollett was a suspicious one from the start. I say that for two reasons. The first is that so many of these recent reports of racially motivated attacks, physical or symbolic, have turned out to be self-perpetrated hoaxes. The second is the many inconsistencies, glitches, and lapses of logic in Smollett’s own story (listed by Kyle Smith here).
But this was a story MSM and the left deeply wanted to be true. And as with so many other stories the press deeply wants to be true—the racist MAGA-hatted Covington kids, Christine Blasey Ford’s tale of the would-be teen rapist Brett Kavanaugh, the marauding frat boys of Virginia, the feces-covered Tawana Brawley—when people want a story to be true they tend to suspend disbelief and even logic in the effort to keep believing it.
It’s called confirmation bias:
Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses. It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. Confirmation bias is a variation of the more general tendency of apophenia.
People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).
Don’t think this is limited to the left. It’s not. But it’s rampant there, perhaps because the left is very “emotionally charged” right now, to say the least.
But reporters are supposed to be especially aware of confirmation bias and to be on constant guard against it. When reporters see themselves as crusaders for a cause, rather than dedicated to truth no matter where it leads them, we have a state of affairs where they can be easily fooled because of their confirmation bias.
Today, though, it’s worse than that. Some may be fooled, but some know that they should be more skeptical and more thorough in investigating something, but purposely suppress that knowledge because of sheer and utter partisanship. That’s not confirmation bias—or, if it is, it’s willful conscious confirmation bias.
Which could also be called purposely writing outright propaganda.
With all of this in mind, I find this WaPo op-ed by Nana Efua Mumford fascinating. Mumford—the executive assistant to The Post’s editorial board—is black, and she seems to have grown up in Chicago. Mumford describes her back-and-forth struggles with the Smollett story this way:
…[W]hen I first heard of the attack on Smollett, I had to pause. On “Empire,” Jamal Lyon came out as gay in front of his homophobic, abusive father; took a bullet for that same father and overcame an addiction to pain pills. Was I reading last week’s episode recap, or did this actually happen in my hometown of Chicago? Almost immediately, I had a terrible feeling that I was victim blaming, or worse, that I am so brainwashed that I no longer can hear cries of hurt and outrage from my own black community. It was a horrifying feeling that I am still trying to work through almost three weeks later.
So for Mumford—who I think is being honest than self-serving here, although I can’t be sure—her initial skepticism was followed almost immediately by self-blame at her own thoughtcrime for doubting Smollett’s story. She seems to still be troubled by her initial failure to follow the dictates of groupthink, rather than being proud of her independent thinking and devotion to logic instead.
I use those Orwellian terms purposely and not as a gimmick, because Orwell was describing the left and the ways in which it controls independent thinking and trains a person to stop all such meanderings from the Truth as the Party sees it and wills it. That’s what Mumford appears to be struggling against.
She writes:
I wanted to believe Smollett. I really did. I know that there is a deep, dark racist history in Chicago and, if proved true, this would be just one more point on the list. I wanted to believe him with every fiber of my being, most of all because the consequences if he were lying were almost too awful to contemplate.
And yet I struggled with Smollett’s story.
So for Mumford this was an enormous struggle, a very real one and certainly not a trivial one. It’s one that is faced by anyone reluctant to change his/her mind (and that’s just about everyone, believe me) about something basic. Perhaps the saddest thing in Mumford’s story is the fact that she would rather the attack on Smollett have been bona fide than that he be found to have been lying and a complicit hoaxer in his own supposed victimization.
Unfortunately (at least by yesterday, which was when Mumford’s op-ed was published) Mumford is still fighting the truth and taking sides against it. That is the strength of groupthink. And in doing so, she commits another error and exposes previous confirmation bias on her part [emphasis mine]:
If Smollett’s story is found to be untrue, it will cause irreparable damage to the communities most affected. Smollett would be the first example skeptics cite when they say we should be dubious of victims who step forward to share their experiences of racist hate crimes or sexual violence. The incident would be touted as proof that there is a leftist conspiracy to cast Trump supporters as violent, murderous racists. It would be the very embodiment of “fake news.”
And that reason, more than any other, is why I need this story to be true, despite its ugliness and despite what it would say about the danger of the world I live in. The damage done would be too deep and long-lasting.
Mumford says that the Smollett story would be the first example skeptics would cite. Where has she been all her life? In this post, I’ve already cited a few that easily take priority—high-profile cases, too—and I did it just off the top of my head. There are plenty more, and you can find many lists of them: race hoaxes in 2016, some more recent ones here, and that’s just the tip of a huge iceberg, and not a really hidden one at that. If Mumford is unaware of this history, both old and new, it’s due to more confirmation bias, either unconscious or willful.
Right now the status of the Smollett story is that most media outlets are reporting that “Chicago Police believe Smollett paid two men to orchestrate the alleged assault.” That seems most likely, because Smollett’s behavior around the crime was not the behavior of an actual victim (see Kyle Smith’s summary of Smollett’s suspicious behaviors).
So at this point, logic seems to indicate that Smollett was in on it. But I’m open to new information that would tell me that Smollett’s new defense is correct, and that (as he says) these two black guys from Nigeria who are acquaintances of his really did attack him and yell racist epithets, and then framed him by saying he paid them to do it. It’s a bit far-fetched, but stranger things have happened. How two Nigerian guys could masquerade as white guys is a little hard to picture, even if they wore ski masks and gloves and were totally covered up. But it’s possible. Hard to believe, but possible. Phone records, emails, and/or records of any payments by Smollett to the brothers would be part of the evidence that could shed light on this aspect of the whole sordid mess.
But whether it was Smollett himself or whether he was being framed by the brothers, the indictment of the MSM and the left stands: they believed a hoax, and a fairly transparent hoax at that. Or they pretended to believe it for propaganda purposes. Either way, it’s bad.
And for many and varied politicians, the same.
[NOTE: Another thing that’s indisputable is how much Smollett hates Donald Trump, which would serve as a possible motive if he is in fact the hoax’s perpetrator:
Pretty nasty stuff.]
[ADDENDUM: This is satire, right? Right?]