There are now reports that Iranian demonstrators have been fired on, tear gassed, and beaten by the those in charge of riot control. It’s hard to know the extent of this, and the Tehran chief of police has denied it, but it certainly has been the case in the past.
The title of this post features some tweets from President Trump to the leaders of Iran. Here’s a fuller version:
US President Donald Trump told Iranian protesters that he supported them and warned the regime against cracking down on demonstrations that broke out after Tehran admitted shooting down an airliner by mistake, killing all 176 people aboard.
“The government of Iran must allow human rights groups to monitor and report facts from the ground on the ongoing protests by the Iranian people,” Trump tweeted Saturday in English and Farsi.
“There can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters, nor an internet shutdown. The world is watching,” Trump added, referring to an internet blackout that blanketed the country during widespread protests in November.
For those of us of a certain age, the phrase “the world is watching” rings an over-50-year-old bell. It was the chant the antiwar leftist protestors near the 1968 Democratic Convention shouted as some of them were being beaten by police in Chicago. Some history can be found here, but the gist of it is that the protestors tried to provoke police into violence and the police obliged.
Although there is really no parallel between that milder violence in 1968 and the recent massacres of protestors in Iran, the events in Chicago in 1968 were nevertheless shocking at the time to those of us who didn’t expect such things to happen in 1968 to antiwar demonstrators at a convention in the US. It was easy for college students (many of whom were against the war) to identify with the demonstrators who were being beaten.
That chant “The whole world is watching!” had a different scope in the pre-internet age. But it referred to the fact that there was massive television coverage, and that the demonstrators knew full well that the coverage would reflect poorly on the police.
Trump is old enough to remember. But when he uses the phrase now, he is addressing a murderous regime in Iran. And that regime in Iran has killed many of the student demonstrators in the past rather than just slightly injured them. This time, the whole world really is watching, because of the internet. This time, the mullahs are on the economic ropes. And this time, Trump is also purposely rubbing the left’s face in all of this by using that phrase, because the left is on the other side this time (although they would deny it, they have been empowering the present leaders of Iran).
Who will blink? Will the Iranian regime continue the violence, and how will they calibrate it? The mullahs know that, at least until January of 2021 and perhaps beyond, they are dealing with Trump and his resolve to stop them. They know that Trump has served notice through the killing of Suleimani (who among other things was the person in charge of previously cracking down so hard on the Iranian protestors) that he means business, as opposed to previous US presidents who mouthed words but whose actions spoke of passivity. Not only that, but Trump’s sanctions have hurt them economically and they fear that he’s willing to extend sanctions even further. And perhaps they think that if they start massacring the protestors, even their buddies in Europe may start turning on them (unlikely, but possible).
But they may consider it worth the risk. They know that if they don’t crack down on the protestors with lethal force, the size of the demonstrations may swell to unwieldy or even uncontrollable levels. And if the regime’s security forces ever turn on the regime as well, that would be an even greater turning point, the biggest turning point of all. I doubt it will happen, because those tasked with keeping the people in line tend to be highly dedicated to the cause of the theocracy, but it’s not unprecedented that they might have a breaking point.
One of the most poignant of all the recent chants by the demonstrators – who are mostly students – is ““You killed our geniuses!”. This is of course a reference to Flight 352 and the passengers on it, who leaned heavily to students traveling to Canada to commence or resume studies there. They were among Iran’s best and brightest, and the demonstrating students take it very personally that they were killed, and then that the people of Iran were lied to about it in such a blatant manner.
North Korea has maintained its iron grip by completely cutting its people off from the rest of the world. Iran has not done that for the most part, and it would be difficult (although not impossible) to start doing it now for more than a short while. The whole world is indeed watching, and the Iranian people are watching the whole world.