Getting information about COVID-19 and how to protect yourself isn’t easy

The New Neo Posted on by

Have you noticed how many of the sites that purport to give information about how to protect yourself and your family from COVID-19 give contradictory and/or confusing information? My guess is that a lot of the reason is that the available information so far really is confusing and contradictory. But some of the confusion seems to be the usual CYA “on the one hand this and on the other hand that.”

Masks. Yes, no, maybe so. They protect other people. No, they protect you – at least a little bit. Cloth masks are good, or better than nothing, but of course you can’t touch the front, and you need to wash them, and maybe they don’t do much after all. Exercise outdoors is great, but maybe you need to double or triple your social distancing because some study or other said that – although they don’t know if it really matters – people running past you or biking past you can spew out virus for longer distances if they do this or that or if the wind is just right. Wash your groceries, but cold water is good enough for the vegetables, or maybe a little bit of vinegar in the water or perhaps not.

I left out the cites because it would just be too tedious. You probably seen it all yourselves, anyway, and more.

The only real agreement is on this: wash those hands! Wash them and then wash them some more! But even then, when I tried to obtain what I thought would be a basic piece of information – is it better to use pump soap or is bar soap okay, or does it even matter? – I can’t find much of anything about that.

I also have this question that one would think would be pretty standard, too: how long does the virus last under refrigeration? Not a word about it, except that maybe it’s a long long time, whatever that means.

Last night I saw some site (can’t remember which one) that said the virus can last for “many weeks” on clothing, so you should wash everything whenever you use it or touch it or even think about it. Other sites have merely said that we don’t know how long the virus can last on fabric. But if it’s as bad as site number one says, we’re all gonna get it and there’s no escape. And is handwashing with soap in hot water enough, or do you have to keep a washing machine running continually (a neat trick to accomplish if you do your laundry in laundromats)?

Sometimes I think the goal is to get us all to throw up our thoroughly-washed hands in despair. Or, to turn us all into Howard Hughes in the latter part of his life. And that’s not good.

Remember the FISA abuses?

The New Neo Posted on by

I certainly do. COVID-19 has eclipsed most everything (even on this blog), but it really shouldn’t.

Of course, there’s also the very real question of whether anything will ever happen to the people who perpetrated the abuse, short of getting gigs on CNN. But Nunes has said there will be more criminal referrals:

Nunes, the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, has already filed eight criminal referrals related to the U.S. government’s investigation of the Trump campaign. He said in an interview on “Fox & Friends” that he anticipates filing additional referrals based on information in a series of footnotes from the IG’s report that was revealed on Friday.

“I would say that people should go and look at those footnotes that are now public. Likely we’re going to have more criminal referrals based on these,” Nunes said.

Two Senate Republicans published newly declassified footnotes from the IG report that showed that the FBI received evidence in 2017 that the Steele dossier contained Russian disinformation…

FBI agents failed to disclose the information in applications for Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act orders against former Trump aide Carter Page.

There’s also the Durham investigation we’ve heard so much about:

Time is of the essence, with an election looming in November. Barr is reportedly looking to have the investigation finished by the end of summer.

“The closer we get to election day, the more any charges he brought would be framed by the media as kind of a Trump campaign stunt,” former U.S. Attorney Andrew McCarthy told WMAL on Saturday.

“So I really think it’s in his interest, especially after pouring two years of effort into this, to get with it by the late spring at the latest, because we all know if the president doesn’t win reelection, this investigation is going down the memory hole,” he said.

“We’re getting to the point where a decision has to be made, one way or the other,” he added.

Durham is reportedly focusing in on the role of intelligence officials in the investigation of the Trump campaign. Durham’s team reportedly began interviews at the CIA earlier this year.

Durham’s team is looking at former CIA Director John Brennan’s role in the investigation – whether he pushed for an intelligence community assessment (ICA) more damaging to Trump.

I’ve become very cynical about the chances of anything really happening on this other than some small fish being caught and made examples of, and the larger fish getting away with it. I would like to be pleasantly surprised, however.

What’s up with Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan?

The New Neo Posted on by

Gretchen Whitmer is the governor of Michigan. Till COVID struck, I’d never heard of her, but then I don’t live in Michigan or near it. COVID has given her a fame of sorts, because she has clamped down on the citizens of her state harder than any other governor (and that’s saying something).

Prior to this – and maybe even now – Whitmer was a rising star in the Democratic Party:

In February 2020, she was selected to give the Democratic response to President Donald Trump’s 2020 State of the Union Address. She is the national co-chairwoman of the Joe Biden 2020 presidential campaign.

Looking at that Wiki bio, I don’t see anything in particular that would distinguish her from other liberal Democrats in terms of predicting that she would have a more draconian COVID response than the others. And yet here we are:

Among the complaints was that Whitmer had prohibited sale of seeds and other garden supplies at a time when vegetable gardens need to be planted. Executive Order 2020-42 is titled, “Temporary requirement to suspend activities that are not necessary to sustain or protect life,” and it is quite specific about which activities are and are “not necessary.” Stores with “more than 50,000 square feet” (e.g., Walmart, Lowes, Home Depot) are ordered to close areas of the store “by cordoning them off, placing signs in aisles, posting prominent signs, removing goods from shelves, or other appropriate means” that sell carpet or flooring, furniture, and “garden centers and plant nurseries.” So if grandma went to Walmart for groceries and hoped to pick up some tomato plants or cucumber seeds while she was there — sorry, grandma! You could get a thousand-dollar fine and 90 days in jail for disobeying Whitmer’s orders.

Posting photos from a Walmart in Grand Rapids showing the now-banned seeds cordoned off with yellow tape, one Twitter user declared, “@GovWhitmer has banned us from growing our own food. This is [bleeping] insane.” Another user posted a photo indicating that it’s now apparently forbidden to sell American flags in Michigan. Barbecue grills, lawn chairs — anything in the garden section is now streng verboten in Michigan. References to Whitmer as a “dictator” proliferated on social media over the weekend as Michigan residents came to grips with the consequences of the governor’s draconian order.

There’s much more at the link. It explains that the vast majority of Michigan’s deaths are in Detroit and the rest of the state has been doing rather well, but the rules are for the entire state. The arbitrary and illogical nature of the rules is staggering; they seem to have been designed merely to flex the state’s muscle, showing the people who’s boss – because they don’t seem to have much connection to actual control of the disease.

And then of course there’s this:

Last month, the governor actually threatened the licenses of medical professionals who prescribed the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) for coronavirus patients. A week later, however, Whitmer was trying to secure supplies of HCQ from the federal strategic stockpile. Erratic, arbitrary, deaf to criticism — she has thoroughly botched Michigan’s response to this crisis, and yet, despite her blatant failure, there is talk that Whitmer is on the list of potential running mates for presumed Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

I think the latter is because (a) she’s a woman, and a fairly attractive one; and (b) as previously mentioned, she’s been a big Biden supporter.

The more interesting question to me is why Whitmer has had such a terrible reaction to the threat of COVID. It’s not just because she’s a female Democrat; there are others who fit that description and I haven’t heard much if anything that distinguishes their responses.

I don’t have an answer to my own question because I know very little about her, and if any of you have some insight please feel free to explain. But my observation is this: many people both in public and private life, but particularly in public life, are interested in gaining power over others. And many will use a crisis to increase that power, which they enjoy wielding.

It’s not always possible to tell in advance who these people will be. But there will be such people, and Whitmer is one of them. Their stance doesn’t come from having greater intelligence or skill or foresight, and they can be more insecure or less insecure. One of the roots might be the need to control. Another is a lack of interest in protecting liberty. The two together make a very bad combination.

[ADDENDUM: A petition to recall her has gained a lot of signatures. People don’t want Nurse Ratched as governor.]

How are you tackling the shutdown? I know what some YouTubers are doing

The New Neo Posted on by

What are you doing to keep yourselves busy?

For me it’s rather simple. I still do a lot of reading and writing and thinking (hopefully not in that exact order). That’s what I do each day anyway, and it takes up a lot of time.

As the weather gets nicer, I feel drawn to the outside more and more. But even in winter I like to walk outside and try to do it almost every day if it’s not stormy.

Walking outside is a bit more problematic these days, although perhaps even more necessary than ever. Sunshine! Light! Fresh air! Exercise! I crave these things.

But it’s not always easy to keep the proper distance. I get nervous when I hear footsteps behind me, for example. I’m a pretty fast walker, but I’m small and I don’t have a long stride, so I’m not so very hard to overtake if someone with a long stride is walking fast towards me. And if they’re behind me I can’t see them and don’t know if I can trust them to keep a good distance. It feels absurd, but sometimes if the opportunity is there I make a ninety-degree turn and go some other way – where almost inevitably I run into some other person who presents a dilemma of some sort.

And it’s not that I’m walking in a crowded area – I’m not. But nice weather draws forth some people, and with everyone at home it can happen at any time of day.

Yesterday I was walking down a fairly wide path, at least twelve feet or so across, when I heard the sound of a bicycle coming towards me from behind. I moved way to the side of the path and the rider passed me, but he was riding close to the middle of the road. And then he stopped abruptly, making his tires squeal, and turned around to face me. I have no idea why he did that – he didn’t say a word – but it unnerved me.

And then it unnerved me that it had unnerved me.

Anyway, one of my favorite activities – usually late at night – is to binge watch YouTube. Last night I discovered a few more song parodies for the pandemic and the shutdown. It warms the cockles of my heart that people are so creative.

This is one of my very favorites:

The original unfunny non-corona version:

There are so many other COVID-19 song parodies I could probably post one a day for the rest of the shutdown and not even begin to run out of them.

I do plan to post quite a few more as time goes on.

If we re-open, will there be a bad “second wave” of COVID-19?

The New Neo Posted on by

Sorry, I don’t have an answer. But I have some thoughts on it.

First of all, we have to re-open, although doing it in stages and to different degrees in different locations is fine with me. Not only is it necessary for the economy, but for people’s mental health as well.

But here’s one possibility, as expressed by commenter “Joe”:

People seem to not appreciate that flattening the curve doesn’t eliminate deaths, it just spreads them out. It’s quite likely that when Norway and Denmark loosen their restrictions they will catch up [to Sweden].

Without a vaccine, deaths won’t stop until we reach herd immunity at approx 70% of the population.

No, deaths won’t stop. But there are quite a few things that might be hopeful developments. The shutdown was instituted in order to buy time, and the delay can be helpful in multiple ways. It would be ruinous were it to go on long enough to make a working vaccine or to achieve herd immunity. But the shutdown bought time for learning more about the way the disease works, and what might impact it and reduce its severity and/or slow its spread. With some of the following elements in place, it is very possible the situation will be significantly improved from what it would have been before:

(1) The development and testing of successful drug treatments, and the production of sufficient amounts of these drugs. This is not only a US effort but a global one, with sharing of data and progress worldwide.

(2) Other helpful treatment methods (such as, for example, patients lying prone instead of supine) emerging with time and increasing experience in dealing with COVID patients.

(3) As more people contract mild cases and become immune, any disease becomes at least somewhat more difficult to spread as it becomes more difficult for the virus to find new victims – and that starts to happen even before herd immunity develops.

(4) When the health care system is overwhelmed, other methods of approach such as contact tracing are difficult to put into practice. When there are fewer cases all at once, contact tracing and isolation of contacts can be more comprehensive and therefore more effective. It helps to have quicker and more widespread testing, which we now have but didn’t have in the earlier stages of the pandemic.

(5) If we keep all the following in place – fairly widespread mask-wearing and handwashing, some social distancing, and a travel ban to and from “hot” areas – it should slow down transmission and decrease deaths in those who have contracted the disease, without overly overburdening hospitals. At the outset, those things were not in place.

COVID-19 questions with no answers

The New Neo Posted on by

Alex Berenson has been active lately on some of the Fox opinion shows, and every now and then I’ve watched his appearances. He’s an interesting guy; I wrote about him previously in this post about marijuana and its effects.

Berenson has some observations about the COVID-19 data that dovetail with some things I’ve noticed as well [emphasis mine]:

…Berenson…says that outside of places like New York there has not been a national health crisis that was predicted — nor are there signs that the level of lockdown in various states has made a difference.

“Aside from New York, nationally there’s been no health system crisis. In fact, to be truly correct there has been a health system crisis, but the crisis is that the hospitals are empty,” he said. “This is true in Florida where the lockdown was late, this is true in southern California where the lockdown was early, it’s true in Oklahoma where there is no statewide lockdown. There doesn’t seem to be any correlation between the lockdown and whether or not the epidemic has spread wide and fast.”

He has also argued, in lengthy Twitter threads, that the drop in cases seen in various states has come before lockdowns would have had an impact — since it takes a few weeks for social distancing measures to take effect due to the window between infection and symptoms…

Berenson says the correct response in the initial days of the crisis would not have been to do nothing, but instead to adopt a more measured and targeted approach.

“There was incredible pressure to do something … so these lockdowns all cascaded, every governor tried to outdo the next. And no one stopped and said ‘OK what about Japan, they don’t seem to have a terrible epidemic, they wear masks, maybe we should wear masks,” he said.

He said other measures such as protecting individuals particularly at risk, and even things such as banning large gatherings such as concerts and sporting events could have been appropriate. But now he fears it may be too late for officials to say they overreacted.

At this point I’m in agreement with Berenson, and I think I always have been.

However, I think that the effect on the economy would have been bad anyway, although not nearly as bad as it has been. Hotels and restaurants would have suffered anyway, as people would have been afraid and most would have stayed away. Hair salons and other person-to-person service businesses would also have been hurt, I’m almost sure. Doctors were already warning not to come in if the visit wasn’t essential.

Some things happen regardless of what the government does. Fear is a powerful motivator, and it was already in place before the reaction from government became so draconian. Sports events were already canceled and certain businesses were already having employees work from home. How long could life as usual gone on?

The nearly-total shutdown has also been a chance for local governments to flex their muscles and let loose with their inner totalitarian impulses. That’s an ominous sign, but perhaps another useful one. We get to see how easy it is to slip into more and more government control, particularly in a time of widespread fear. COVID-19 is a great teacher, although a harshly cruel one.

[Hat tip for Berenson article: commenter Artfldgr.]

China isn’t winning any popularity contests these days

The New Neo Posted on by

Finally! Something on which we can agree.

Americans in both parties blame China:

Republicans and Democrats now largely agree that the Chinese government bears responsibility for the spread of the pandemic, that it can’t be trusted on this or any other issue, and that the U.S. government should maintain a tough position on China on trade and overall, especially if Beijing again falters in its commitments.

“It’s as much of a consensus issue as you can get in today’s divided world,” said Mark Penn, chairman of the Harris Poll…

Of the nationally representative sample of 1,993 American adults Harris surveyed online between April 3 and April 5, a net total of 23 percent said Xi, the Chinese president, was a trustworthy source of information related to the covid-19 outbreak, with Republicans and Democrats closely aligned.

That’s where the unity ends. We also have this:

The White House and the U.S. media rated 53 and 60 percent in trustworthiness, respectively, with Republicans tending to support the former and Democrats the latter.

Is it because they’re Democrats that they trust the media? Or is it because they trust the media that they’re Democrats?

The larger issue of not trusting China shows Trump’s prescience – or some would say his intuition. One of the pillars of his campaign and administration has been that China has – not to be too delicate about it – screwed us. He wasn’t talking about the virus, he was talking about money and trade and things connected with money and trade. But the current health crisis has only highlighted how right he was.

I believe that it has also made it clear to more people that many politicians and pundits of the liberal/left persuasion were and still are wrong about China. It may even be becoming clear to more people that the error is not just a cognitive one, but a stance motivated by self-interest – in other words, money.

There’s the Bidens, for example. And then there’s this sort of thing (from 2018):

Meanwhile, in the US, lobbyists paid by Chinese-backed institutions are cultivating vocal supporters known as “third-party spokespeople” to deliver Beijing’s message, and working to sway popular perceptions of Chinese rule in Tibet. China is also wooing journalists from around the world with all-expenses-paid tours and, perhaps most ambitiously of all, free graduate degrees in communication, training scores of foreign reporters each year to “tell China’s story well”…

The state-run English-language newspaper China Daily has struck deals with at least 30 foreign newspapers – including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post and the UK Telegraph – to carry four- or eight-page inserts called China Watch, which can appear as often as monthly. The supplements take a didactic, old-school approach to propaganda; recent headlines include “Tibet has seen 40 years of shining success”, “Xi unveils opening-up measures” and – least surprisingly of all – “Xi praises Communist party of China members.”…

In September (2018), Donald Trump criticised this practice, claiming China was pushing “false messages” intended to damage his prospects in the midterm elections…

As Beijing and its proxies extend their reach, they are harnessing market forces to silence the competition. Discourse power is, it seems, a zero-sum game for China, and voices that are critical of Beijing are co-opted or silenced, left without a platform or drowned out in the sea of positive messaging created by Beijing’s own “borrowed” and “bought” boats.

It’s a long article, but I recommend that you read the whole thing.

Trump’s emphasis on COVID-19 as “Chinese” was widely criticized as xenophobic and racist. In addition to being a reference to the virus’ origin as well as the initial Chinese coverup that facilitated its spread, he was (I believe) trying to underline China’s role in order to increase distrust of that country. I think, despite all the criticism he received, that he succeeded.

Americans seem to not be buying the Chinese line these days. COVID-19 has had very few benefits, but that may be one of them.

Commenter Sharon W’s COVID story

The New Neo Posted on by

Regular commenter “Sharon W” is allowing me to share her COVID-19 story in her own words, which follows.

The last week of my life can’t be adequately described in words…

My husband (despite no comorbidites, normal weight, healthy, active man) never moved to a place of marked improvement. We both ran fevers ranging from 99.5 to 102 on successive days. Whereas I was able to maintain a healthy oxygen saturation level, he was not. On advice of our doctor I tried to bring him to the ER last Thursday. I had to leave him at the COVID 19 tent entry and was told to go home. I tossed him his phone and told him to call me. Making it quick, his O2 saturation levels showed 3 successive normals (after a prior full day of successive 88’s) so the doctor told him, go home drink lots of fluids. Our little device at home also recorded the 96 so it wasn’t faulty.

He never rallied, had no energy to do anything but sleep. His appetite was still non-existent, trying to force himself. (Watching someone feed himself when there is no appetite is a special kind of suffering.) Liquids were also a problem. I spend the days cleaning our bed linens, and doing my best with him. I had the Paramedics out on Saturday because of the O2 but once again his level rose to a 94 (anomaly). We were encouraged to heal at home. The following day with levels once again too low, I called the Paramedics. No high outlier this time. They offered to take him if I wanted (and he had acquiesced at this point having previously fought all hospital visits as our sons said for our sake he must relent). The Paramedic told me he wouldn’t necessarily be admitted just because they brought him. Also that they would need to spend 1-1/2 hours cleaning the ambulance should they do so. I opted to drive him myself if needed. Later that afternoon despite his best efforts to drink the Pedialyte and eat something, when I checked he was at 79!!! I rushed him over and dropped him at that tent. It took a few moments for an attendant. I was prepared for this because of my first encounter on Thursday: when you drop a loved one off at the COVID-19 unit, you have just separated yourself from their care. It is 100% out of your hands. I went home and prepared a place to sleep and begin taking care of my own case. My son called the next day (Monday).

My husband had been placed in the Telemetry Unit of the COVID-19 wing. Only yesterday did I speak to him for the first time via phone. Because of the updates my son had been receiving from the nurse I had a terribly false sense of where he is in his recovery. So when I heard his voice, my heart fell. He was the same weak kitten I’d been taking care of for those 10 days. Apparently he had presented with pneumonia so they took him off the z pak and zinc and hit him with the big guns. It took care of the pneumonia but he feels “beat up” and still no appetite. They tell him, “eat for your family”.

He was put on the arithromycin, zinc and hydroxychloroquine, for what was to be a 5 day regimen. After 1 day, the head doctor called me in the morning. He ordered another xray and the pneumonia had advanced. Doug was on maximum 15L of oxygen via the Facemask and his saturation level still lagged. By day 3 (today) it was suggested that he go on Actemra to try and deal with the inflammation and keep him from the ventilator…

As for me, I had my first night without night sweats last night. After running a fever for 11 days, I recorded a normal this morning. I have a residual cough, not unusual for me post-cold. If my normal temperature continues I should be able to emerge from the self-quarantine come Monday.

…the last 12 days have been unlike anything I have ever experienced. And literally came out of nowhere…many, many people are praying. He needs it.

So that’s the request: prayers for Sharon’s husband’s recovery.

Biden, the placeholder candidate

The New Neo Posted on by

Whenever I see a poll on Trump vs. Biden it amazes me that so many people support Biden. It shows how many people hate Trump with a white-hot passion, because otherwise the number of people supporting Biden would be limited to his immediate family, and maybe not even all of them.

Even when I was a Democrat I considered Biden a mediocrity at best, but now he’s a mediocrity who appears to be in precipitous decline. And yet unless the DNC intervenes – which it very well might – he is slated to become the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party. That it has come to this is phenomenal and a very disturbing sign.

However, I’m convinced that most people checking off that “Biden” box do not consider that he will really be the nominee, and that if he is he won’t really be the one in charge. As long as someone or something stops Trump, a huge number of people would be satisfied. Whether it be a tissue of lies (“Russiagate”) or a doddering old man (Biden) or a virus (COVID), the silver lining in all those clouds is that Trump will be gone from power. The details of who will replace him and/or who will be pulling his strings are not all that important to this group, as long as it’s a suitable liberal/leftist entity or entities.

How many people have already had COVID-19?

The New Neo Posted on by

That is the trillion-dollar question, isn’t it? And we don’t know the answer, although the US is starting to try to find out.

In line with that, take a look at this news from Chicago:

A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus.

Sumaya Owaynat, a phlebotomy technician, said she tests between 400 and 600 patients on an average day in the parking lot at Roseland Community Hospital. Drive-thru testing is from 9 a.m. to noon and 1 to 4 p.m. each day. However, the hospital has a limited number of tests they can give per day.

Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease.

There are several things there that make me wary, though. The first is that I didn’t think that drive-through centers were testing for antibodies; ordinarily it’s just for the disease. The second is that this is not a random group of people without symptoms. I believe that patients have to be approved by doctors in order to qualify for testing, even drive-through testing.

But also in the article is this extremely interesting – and more seemingly more valid – news:

A recent study of 1,000 people in the Heinsberg District of Bonn, Germany found that 15% of the population had contracted the virus, many unknowingly and without symptoms.

Of those, only 0.37% died from COVID-19, a figure much lower than those previously cited.

Germany is one of the western European countries that has been doing a fair job containing COVID, and so (at least to me) a 15% infection rate at this point is rather high and in a sense rather promising. The more people who are infected and survive without problems, the better it is for the group as a whole because over time the virus should find it harder and harder to spread. On the other hand, it does mean that in the shorter term it will be harder to protect especially vulnerable groups, because for now the illness is so easily spread.