I sometimes agree with Prager, but not here:
But for those open to reading thoughts they may differ with, here is the case for why the worldwide lockdown is not only a mistake but also, possibly, the worst mistake the world has ever made. And for those intellectually challenged by the English language and/or logic, “mistake” and “evil” are not synonyms. The lockdown is a mistake; the Holocaust, slavery, communism, fascism, etc., were evils. Massive mistakes are made by arrogant fools; massive evils are committed by evil people.
The forcible prevention of Americans from doing anything except what politicians deem “essential” has led to the worst economy in American history since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It is panic and hysteria, not the coronavirus, that created this catastrophe. And the consequences in much of the world will be more horrible than in America.
The United Nations World Food Programme, or the WFP, states that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation — double last year’s figures. According to WFP director David Beasley on April 21: “We could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries. … There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself” (italics added).
That would be enough to characterize the worldwide lockdown as a deathly error. But there is much more. If global GDP declines by 5%, another 147 million people could be plunged into extreme poverty, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Much more at the link.
It’s not that I disagree with the idea that the lockdown was a mistake. I think it almost certainly was, although we don’t have an alternate earth where we can test out that hypothesis. It’s also not that I disagree with the idea that the economic and even some of the health consequences are vast and very serious. But I can think of a lot of worse mistakes in history, right off the top of my head.
The first that comes to mind is the aged and worn-out von Hindenberg’s appointment of Hitler to the post of chancellor of Germany. Many people believe erroneously that Hitler was elected to the post, and later he was, but only after the Nazis had obtained complete control through naked power plays and intimidation and violence against all rivals. Initially, Hitler was not elected chancellor – and in fact, the Nazis had been losing power at the time rather than gaining it. Hitler came to power as the result of an error of judgment by von Hinderberg:
Hindenburg, intimidated by Hitler’s growing popularity and the thuggish nature of his cadre of supporters, the SA (or Brownshirts), initially refused to make him chancellor. Instead, he appointed General Kurt von Schleicher, who attempted to steal Hitler’s thunder by negotiating with a dissident Nazi faction led by Gregor Strasser. At the next round of elections in November, the Nazis lost ground—but the Communists gained it, a paradoxical effect of Schleicher’s efforts that made right-wing forces in Germany even more determined to get Hitler into power. In a series of complicated negotiations, ex-Chancellor Franz von Papen, backed by prominent German businessmen and the conservative German National People’s Party (DNVP), convinced Hindenburg to appoint Hitler as chancellor, with the understanding that von Papen as vice-chancellor and other non-Nazis in key government positions would contain and temper Hitler’s more brutal tendencies.
Hitler’s emergence as chancellor on January 30, 1933, marked a crucial turning point for Germany and, ultimately, for the world. His plan, embraced by much of the German population, was to do away with politics and make Germany a powerful, unified one-party state. He began immediately, ordering a rapid expansion of the state police, the Gestapo, and putting Hermann Goering in charge of a new security force, composed entirely of Nazis and dedicated to stamping out whatever opposition to his party might arise. From that moment on, Nazi Germany was off and running, and there was little Hindenburg or von Papen—or anyone—could do to stop it.
That’s a mere summary of a much more complex process; you can read the details on many sites. They are heartbreaking as well as frustrating and infuriating. The gist of it is that some people thought they could tame, contain, and control Hitler, and in the process they made the enormous error of judgment of elevating him to a position of power it seems he would not have attained otherwise. This certainly would qualify as one of the biggest mistakes in history – the consequences of which, in terms of human suffering, dwarf what we are likely to experience from the lockdown.
In sum: Hitler was evil, but he came to power through a mistake, one of the biggest mistakes in history if not the biggest. There are other historical errors I can think of, one being the calculation made by various European powers that WWI wouldn’t last all that long and wouldn’t be all that difficult to win.
I am sure there are many more errors of great magnitude of which I’m not even aware. But I don’t think the lockdown will be quite in that particular league. At least, I hope not. I think that, if the lockdown ends soon, the world can recover – not overnight, but in a few years – fairly well.
I also think the lockdown has had some good consequences, or at least potentially good consequences. I’ve heard of some families with children realizing that they need to slow down more and spend more time together as a family, and I hope that will continue post-lockdown. I think that, at least for a while, people will feel appreciative of things they may have previously taken for granted – friends, the ability to go to concerts and sports events, restaurants, parties, and a host of others. I think more people have come to realize how easy it is for people to become cowed by petty tyrants of the Whitmer variety, and perhaps they’ll be more cautious about electing such people in the future. Perhaps. And I think more people have been made aware of the grave danger represented by China, and of the need to free ourselves from dependence on it as soon as possible. And I think we may – accent on the “may” – be more hesitant in the future to issue such extreme measures on the basis of shakily-based computer models for things about which we lack important information.