This is typical:
According to [Dr. Bhattacharya’s] assessment, a vaccine is an open-ended question. None of the other coronaviruses that infect humans have one and there is no guarantee this one will.
Technically true but also somewhat misleading.
Because COVID is related to the coronaviruses causing SARS and MERS, it’s often pointed out that we never developed a vaccine for either, despite efforts. But there were differences in those diseases compared to COVID which hampered the vaccine efforts:
In the case of MERS, it is likely that the vaccine development was delayed because of the scarcity of suitable and cost-effective small animal models during pre-clinical experimentation. In addition, it is probable that a vaccine has not been delivered because of the low interest in investing in a vaccine for a disease that has produced relatively low and geographically centralized cases (compared with other more global and persistent infectious diseases such as influenza, HIV and tuberculosis). This last factor might have also contributed to the lack of a vaccine for SARS, in the sense that it was considered pointless to continue investing in a vaccine for a disease whose cases ceased to be reported in 2004.
In other words, for SARS and MERS the creation of a vaccine ceased being of commercial interest rather quickly. Vaccine development is expensive, and if there’s no economic incentive there’s no motive to go forward to the end point of an actual working vaccine.
The article I just quoted was published in late April, when the COVID pandemic was probably at its height. It goes on to mention several things that were learned in the course of the initial quest for SARS and MERS vaccines, things that will help in the quest for a COVID vaccine.
Another argument I often see made against the development of a COVID vaccine is that the common cold is a coronavirus and we have no vaccine against the common cold. However, the common cold is not primarily a coronavirus, although it certainly can be. Common colds are more often caused by rhinoviruses, and a wide variety of viruses are implicated. Here’s some information about that:
Vaccines target a specific virus or pathogen. One difficulty with developing a vaccine for the common cold is there are at least 200 different viruses that can cause cold symptoms, including rhinovirus, coronavirus, adenoviruses, and parainfluenza.
Rhinovirus makes up about 75% of colds. Still, there are more than 150 strains of it circulating at the same time.
At this time, there is currently no way for one vaccine to protect against all possible strains that can cause the common cold…
However, colds are self-limiting, meaning they go away on their own typically within about a week. Although they are a nuisance and affect everyone, they generally don’t cause serious problems for people that impact their lives long-term.
That may not change your desire for a common cold vaccine, but more than public demand must be considered when weighing vaccine development decisions.
Vaccine research is costly and takes a long time, so those dollars and hours are often allocated to creating vaccines and medications to treat and prevent illnesses that have a more serious impact on people’s lives and health.
So that’s the story – too many viruses would have to be covered by the vaccine, and common colds are mainly considered an annoyance factor compared to more deadly illnesses – although colds do cause a lot of misery.
COVID, on the other hand, still is prevalent enough and deadly enough to justify the search for a vaccine. Of course, there’s no guarantee that an effective and safe one will be developed, but I’ve not seen anything that convinces me it’s especially unlikely. What I have seen are a number of articles damping down expectations. Here’s a typical one.
So yes, there may be glitches along the way. And yes, a vaccine may not confer complete immunity against COVID. And yes, there may be logistical problems with the vaccine’s distribution. But I think one is likely to be developed, and I think it’s likely to improve the situation.