I have a natural tendency to be pessimistic about elections. This has been accentuated in recent years by the closeness of so many recent ones, and a growing distrust of polling. But that doesn’t mean I don’t take polls into consideration – I do. An when every poll predicts a Biden win, it’s hard not to be disheartened.
I don’t think the polls are necessarily wrong, either, although I just don’t know – and neither does anyone else. One can argue back and forth about it for a long, long time. There are points made about “shy Trump voters” and the like, but we don’t know the extent of that phenomenon. What we do know is that the polls are telling a bad story.
It’s even a frightening story. For a host of reasons, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are probably the two worst national candidates I’ve ever seen in my lifetime. They’re also tremendously unappealing, and their voters don’t even like them, for the most part. And yet at least half of Americans and maybe more are prepared to vote for them or have already done so.
And that’s because they hate Trump even more.
I’m not going to spend a lot of time now talking about why, because we’ve discussed it already so many times before. Let’s just say it’s a combination of the media, celebrities, the educational system, social media, and the naturally abrasive and rather unconventional personality of Donald Trump himself.
Let us not forget, either, that if the Democrats don’t win fair and square in the voting, I believe they are fully prepared to game the mail-in voting system which they insisted on setting up. That might include dead registrants, as well as this sort of thing.
I have thought for quite some time now that the continued drumming up of COVID panic even as the number of deaths and serious cases falls, is partly in order to expand the use of mail-in voting and therefore of fraud.
Ordinarily there’s a limit to how much fraud can be committed, but the sky’s the limit now in mail-in states. Report of people getting multiple ballots, and of people who no longer live at a certain address getting ballots there, seem rampant. The states that ordinarily have this method of automatically sending ballots to everyone on the voter rolls, whether requested or not (dead or alive) are: Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, and Utah. Utah is the only one that’s Republican, and in the others I don’t think Trump has any kind of chance at all to win. Belatedly joining their ranks this year are California, New Jersey, Vermont, DC (not a state – yet) and Nevada. The first three are deep deep blue, but although in 2016 Nevada went to Hillary Clinton, it was only by a couple of points. So Nevada could be a state where this method of voting and the potential for fraud ends up mattering a great deal. And they all matter if the Democrats use the method to pump up the popular vote, so that even if Trump somehow manages to win they can complain as they did in 2016 that he lost the popular vote and the Electoral College has got to go.
Mailing unrequested ballots to all voters is the most dangerous method of voting in terms of potential fraud, but some other states have applications for a ballot mailed to all registered voters, who then may apply for a ballot to be sent to them. The issue is not just how the applications are sent, but also how the ballot requests and ballot submissions are authenticated (or whether there’s an effort to authenticate them at all), and when.
I know that things can change. I know that the polls favoring Biden might be wrong. But my level of anxiety is very high. I wish I could write something that wasn’t such a downer, but honestly I can’t.
I was thinking the other evening about Thomas Sowell. How many lucid and brilliant books has he written over the years? A great many; a remarkable achievement. How many columns has he written? Likewise. And yet, although he has indeed influenced a lot of people – including me – in the end, did he just have his finger in the dike all that time? And are the waters about to rush in? There are forces much stronger than logic, and there always have been.
One thing I tell myself is that, even if this election goes the way I’m dreading, it doesn’t necessarily mean the country won’t or can’t wake up in a few years. I think the Democrats will fix things so that they entrench their own power (new states, court packing, and the like) and a reversal might be difficult or impossible. But perhaps the backlash will be so strong it will overcome whatever they do.
Another thing I believe is that, even if Trump is somehow able to pull this one out and win four more years, the forces allied against him are formidable and they will be angrier than ever. Whoever wins, I don’t see this settling down. Not at all.
I remember back in the fall of 2012 before the election, I went to my book group – which, except for me, consists of women from left to liberal who are predictable Democratic voters. I wondered what they’d say about Romney, who seemed to me to be the sort of person they wouldn’t be able to work up much of a head of steam against. Wrong, wrong, wrong. They had swallowed, and were bent on regurgitating, all the stupid memes they’d been fed. I recall in particular all the angry dissing about “binders of women,” and how it meant that Romney hated women and if elected would be harming them in some way or other.
It taught me just how very susceptible almost everyone I know is to propaganda. To see it get spread in real time that way was an education. Now, of course, the situation is far worse. To almost everyone I know, Trump is a sort of secular devil, and anything he says or does must be opposed with every fiber of a person’s being. And that is true not just of people who don’t follow politics, or who aren’t especially intelligent, but of people whose intellect and reasoning power I ordinarily respect.
And although I have never heard anyone say a single good thing about Joe Biden, he is truly irrelevant in their equation. He’s simply the un-Trump, and that will do.