Republicans: the not-so-stupid party?

The New Neo Posted on by

You think the GOP is a bunch of stupidheads, who won despite themselves? Maybe not:

But none of that would work if Republicans did not get the right candidates, a basic tenet that had eluded them in recent elections. This time, party officials pushed bad candidates out, recruited and coached contenders with broad appeal and resuscitated two flailing incumbents, Roberts and Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi.

Rival organizations also improved coordination with each other and beefed up their opposition research to wreak havoc on Democrats, while the party closed the gap on data, digital and voter turnout programs.

“We had to recruit candidates, and we had to train them,” said Rob Collins, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). “We had to bring back our incumbents. We had to modernize creaky campaigns. And we had to prevent the mistakes that have plagued our party.”

One of the hallmarks of recent elections has been the nomination of Republican candidates who blew what should have been Republican sure wins. This time Republicans don’t seem to have made any obvious mistakes, any unforced errors. That’s part of what a wave election is all about. But it still is possible to make mistakes, and the Republicans usually find a way to do so.

I can’t think of a single race they should have won that they didn’t win. What’s more, they usually won bigger than expected. They won the ones that were supposed to be close. In the close ones that Republicans lost—Brown in NH and Gillespie in Virginia—they nevertheless did much better than expected. And they won a whole bunch of governorships that were a surprise, too.

I don’t think it was all just Obama-hate. The Republican candidates in general were actually better than before, and the party was instrumental in at least some of the machinations that got them there. For example, they recruited Corey Gardner to replace a weaker candidate in Colorado:

In Colorado, Buck, a controversial former Senate candidate, was running again, this time against Sen. Mark Udall (D). And even though party leaders had brought him to Washington to try to smooth out his rough edges, they were working behind his back to replace him with Cory Gardner, a fresh-faced congressman.

The NRSC’s political director, Ward Baker ”” a tough ex-Marine who decorated the office with camouflage netting and sandbags and earned the moniker “Hurricane Ward” for his relentless nudging ”” called Gardner regularly. In February, he got his man ”” and got Buck to step aside by engineering a switch whereby Buck would run for Gardner’s House seat.

“[Democrats] wrote the playbook for Ken Buck ”” and failed to adjust when it wasn’t Ken Buck anymore,” said Brad Dayspring, the NRSC’s communications director.

And remember McDaniel and the huge controversy about the role the party played in his fall? I doubt this will convince people who are still angry about it; you will probably remain angry about it. But McDaniel apparently had a history of (recorded) inflammatory racial remarks that Democrats would have trotted out to destroy him once he was nominated, according to the article, and that was one of the main reasons the party blocked him.

I think the most laudable thing of all might be that the party recognized that Democrat Braley in Iowa was vulnerable, and when Joni Ernst (basically a Tea Party type of candidate) won the nomination they saw her potential star quality. They helped polish her, and unlike the situation with Palin (where they may have damped down some of her unique appeal), this polishing helped make Ernst shine.

No, Republicans haven’t suddenly turned incredibly brilliant at this. But there’s little doubt that 2014 represents a big improvement. It helps, of course, to have the right political climate. But it also helps not to shoot yourself in the foot.

Even in liberalland…

The New Neo Posted on by

…they don’t like driver card:

Measure 88, which would have provided driver cards to those who can’t prove their legal residency, failed by a huge margin in Tuesday’s election [in Oregon].

As of 2 a.m. Wednesday, voters were rejecting the measure 67 percent to 33 percent, with more than 75 percent of ballots tallied.

The measure pitted unions, some business groups and immigrant-rights organizations against a meagerly funded but tenacious campaign that referred the issue to the ballot after it passed the state Legislature and was signed into law by Gov. John Kitzhaber in May 2013.

Some things are too far left even for people in blue states. For Measure 88, it appears that the special interest groups had gotten the Democratic legislators and governor to do their bidding and pass and then sign into law something most people in the state didn’t want, and it was up to the people to block it.

Let’s listen to John Adams

The New Neo Posted on by

Commenter “Wolla Dalbo” writes:

Despite our Founders deep knowledge, real world experience and street smarts, their very informed, widespread discussions and debates about how to set up our government, when you think about it, our Constitution and our government, in essence, just assume and rely on the good faith and fidelity of our leaders for them to work, there are no really effective, built in mechanisms to prevent a leader from becoming a tyrant, and those weak tools we do have, also assume that a vigilant and courageous Congress will invoke and implement them.

The assumption is that our leaders””people who we just assume understand and love our country, its history, traditions, and form of government”“will generally obey both the spirit and the letter of our Constitution, our laws, and our traditions, and have the vision and guts to implement them, no matter what.

I agree about the Founders’ deep knowledge—wisdom even. But if they set up the government the way they did, it was not because of any sort of naivete or vague hopefulness about government or its leaders, it was because they realized that there is no way to protect people who have lost their own wisdom and judgment about these things. The Founders tried to put in all the built-in, automatic stops to tyranny they could devise, and they were tremendously clever and creative about it. But they also realized that the task of protecting people was impossible, and that the temptation to go the way of tyranny would be great. Perhaps even unstoppable.

But they tried their best. Maybe even the best anyone could have done.

Let’s hear John Adams:

I do not say that democracy has been more pernicious on the whole, and in the long run, than monarchy or aristocracy. Democracy has never been and never can be so durable as aristocracy or monarchy; but while it lasts, it is more bloody than either. ”¦ Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty. When clear prospects are opened before vanity, pride, avarice, or ambition, for their easy gratification, it is hard for the most considerate philosophers and the most conscientious moralists to resist the temptation. Individuals have conquered themselves. Nations and large bodies of men, never.

From the same letter:

The jaws of power are always open to devour, and her arm is always stretched out, if possible, to destroy the freedom of thinking, speaking, and writing. Liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the People, who have… a right, an indisputable, unalienable, indefeasible, divine right to that most dreaded and envied kind of knowledge, I mean the characters and conduct of their rulers. There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free ‘government’ ought to be to trust no man living with power to endanger the public liberty. Liberty cannot be preserved without general knowledge among people.

That last sentence is perhaps the most important. But they’re all pretty important. Adams’ thoughts on this should be prominently displayed and taught in every classroom. But even I, who had a more traditional, old-fashioned education, never learned this sort of thing. Was it thought too difficult, too boring, for kids? Or had the educational system already been taken over by the left, even way back then (remember, I grew up in NYC, where the teachers’ unions were already leftist)?

Getting it

The New Neo Posted on by

Krauthammar gets it. Don’t forget that he’s a psychiatrist, too. Here he was last night, speaking on Obama:

Not sure I agree with him about impeachment, but he makes some good points on that, too. And I agree with just about everything else he said.

David Brat gets it, too. Remember him? He’s the Republican who knocked out Cantor. Brat’s getting ready for DC, and I like his plans:

The responsibility now on the GOP is to execute immediately. To follow the will of the people. To listen to what they just said and to get it right.

The present GOP leadership will need to show their stuff pretty soon. Are they empty suits, beholden to money interests and nothing else, Democrats lite, going along to get along, as many here seem to think? Or are they savvy strategists who will now seize the day to block Obama and move popular conservative initiatives (Keystone, border control, to name just two) forward? Or something in-between?

And will the Democratic leadership be able to keep their troops together, fervently embracing every supposedly nefarious obstructionist tactic the Republicans previously employed and for which the Democrats relentlessly excoriated them?

[ADDENDUM: If you want to know what McConnell and Boehner say are their plans, read this piece of theirs in today’s WSJ. You can Google the title and that should get you past the firewall.

These bills include measures authorizing the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which will mean lower energy costs for families and more jobs for American workers; the Hire More Heroes Act, legislation encouraging employers to hire more of our nation’s veterans; and a proposal to restore the traditional 40-hour definition of full-time employment, removing an arbitrary and destructive government barrier to more hours and better pay created by the Affordable Care Act of 2010…

Our priorities in the 114th Congress will be your priorities. That means addressing head-on many of the most pressing challenges facing the country, including:

Ӣ The insanely complex tax code that is driving American jobs overseas;

Ӣ Health costs that continue to rise under a hopelessly flawed law that Americans have never supported;

Ӣ A savage global terrorist threat that seeks to wage war on every American;

Ӣ An education system that denies choice to parents and denies a good education to too many children;

Ӣ Excessive regulations and frivolous lawsuits that are driving up costs for families and preventing the economy from growing;

Ӣ An antiquated government bureaucracy ill-equipped to serve a citizenry facing 21st-century challenges, from disease control to caring for veterans;

Ӣ A national debt that has Americans stealing from their children and grandchildren, robbing them of benefits that they will never see and leaving them with burdens that will be nearly impossible to repay.

January will bring the opportunity to begin anew. Republicans will return the focus to the issues at the top of your priority list. Your concerns will be our concerns. That’s our pledge.

Kinda general for the most part, which is understandable, since they have to hash the details out among the members of the Republican caucus in the coming Congress. We’ll see.]

Now let’s look at the state legislatures

The New Neo Posted on by

And you may like what you see:

statelegis14

Republican gains extended to state legislative chambers as well. Before Election Day, the GOP controlled 59 of 98 partisan legislative chambers across the country. On Tuesday, preliminary results showed Republicans had won control of both the Nevada Assembly and Senate, the Colorado Senate and state House chambers in Minnesota, New Mexico, Maine, West Virginia and New Hampshire.

That would give the party control of 67 chambers, five more than their previous record in the modern era, set after special elections in 2011 and 2012.

It also would give Republicans total control of 24 states, in which they hold the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the state legislature (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is technically nonpartisan, but in practice Republicans control the chamber by a wide margin). Democrats, by contrast, are likely to control all three legs of the governing stool in only six states.

Of course, one of those Democratic states is a mighty big one: California.

[ADDENDUM: John Hinderaker reflects.]

Obama: freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose

The New Neo Posted on by

Four years ago it occurred to me that an Obama second term would be a fearsome thing:

Four more years! Four years in which [Obama] won’t have to answer to the electorate at all. He will be unleashed to do whatever it is he really wants. And does anyone think that would look moderate at all?

Well, that came true.

Then, in this 2014 mid-term election, it became clear that Obama still didn’t much care about the electorate. He wasn’t all that concerned if Democrats won or lost. Oh, it would be nice if they won; it would be helpful if they won. But he didn’t need them to win, because he intends to do what he wants to do without them. He’s free from any electoral consequences for himself, and he’s got an agenda. He doesn’t fear impeachment/conviction, either (the only way the Senate could convict him would be if a significant number of the remaining Democratic senators voted for it, which is highly unlikely to happen)

So fasten your seat belts, we’re in for a bumpy ride:

ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Jon Karl reported that according to WH officials “the president will move forward with an executive order on immigration reform “no matter how big a shellacking Democrats get tonight” during ABC’s Election coverage on Tuesday.

Karl said “White House officials are saying that you can expect the president to set an aggressive, and defiant tone tomorrow. You’re not going to see any mea culpas, no big firings, no change in direction.”

You know what? I believe them.

Charles Hurt agrees, and he isn’t mincing words:

It will not end at immigration. Unchecked power is addictive.

Disowned by Democrats and made to feel irrelevant in this election, President Obama’s enormous and unjustified ego is deeply wounded. He is frustrated and feels caged, cornered. This is when people like him are most dangerous.

Buoyant Republicans will make an effort to engage him.

But President Obama is not a listener. He is not a negotiator. He is not a learner. He will just take what he wants.

Those words “caged, cornered” echoed some thoughts of mine; I have been thinking of the rat that fights ever harder and more viciously when cornered. Watch out, America. You rejected his agenda and that of the leftists who stand with him, and you will have to pay.

I hope these words of mine will turn out to be overheated rhetoric.

I hope so. But I don’t think so.

[ADDENDUM: Obama has some support for this among his annoyed leftist apparatchiks. To wit, Brian Beutler of TNR, whose article is titled, “Obama Just Lost the Battle for the Senate. It’s Time He Waged War for Real.” I’ll summarize, in case you can’t stomach reading it: after 2010, Obama compromised and conceded to the Republicans, and now there’s no reason to do so, because this wasn’t anywhere near as big a wave election as that one. So it’s time to go full bore with the “big counterattack…[a] slate of legislative proposals and executive actions on immigration, infrastructure and early childhood education that are popular with the Democratic base and that he will dare the GOP to oppose.”]

[ADDENDUM II: Who really won last night? Why, Hillary, of course.]

Writing the script

The New Neo Posted on by

What Democrats said to Republicans when Democrats were in charge of Congress: We don’t have to listen to you any more.

What Democrats will say to Republicans now that Democrats are no longer in charge of Congress: Bipartisanship forever!

Buh-Bye, Harry Reid, Majority Leader!!

The New Neo Posted on by

Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

Joni Ernst put the Republicans over the top, 51. The rest is gravy.

UPDATE 11:29: Kay Hagan’s gone, Tillis is in. 52.

I think it’s very fitting that Ernst was number 51. As I wrote earlier today, she’s the sort of energetic, upbeat candidate that could set the tone for the future. Now if only we could find a whole lot more of them.

Illinois has a Republican governor. Ha! Obama campaigned hard for Quinn, the Democrat.

Democratic strategist Joe Trippi on Fox: “It doesn’t get much wavier than this.”

UPDATE 11:39: Turning to MSNBC for the first time tonight, I see they’re discussing the burning question of whether anyone will challenge Harry Reid as Minority Leader. Some guy there is saying this is the first time a president’s home state lost the governorship for the president’s party since 1892. I don’t know if that’s true, but it sure sounds good.

Ernst: “We are going to make ’em squeal” Spoken with a laugh.

UPDATE: 11:52: Having watched MSNBC for about 15 minutes now, I have to say I’m surprised at how jolly several of them look, including Rachel Maddow (not Chris Matthews, though; he seems out of sorts).

Now they’re blaming some of the Democratic defeats on Harry Reid for not allowing them to cast votes and show they are really centrist. Balderdash.

UPDATE 11:55: Switching back to Fox, I saw the end of Scott Brown’s concession speech. He looked very very happy because of how well the Republicans are doing. Of course he wanted to win, but I actually think he was also very focused (as he was in Massachusetts when he became their senator for a little while) on stopping the Obama administration and Harry Reid, and he’s satisfied—satisfied that the Republicans are in control, and that he made a very very good showing in NH, much better than expected as a real underdog.

Election thread

The New Neo Posted on by

I guess it’s time to start this thread.

I’ll be updating as the night goes on. I get nervous, so I’ll be going back and forth between watching, writing, and taking breathers.

First news: McConnell did better than expected.

UPDATE 8:58: Hey, where is everybody?

I usually find the early returns confusing. Not the states that are called right away, of course, but the ones considered too close to call even though the returns are very lopsided at the outset. Oh, I understand the reason—it has to do with which areas have turned in their votes and which have not. But I thought that they could still compare to see how the area voted in previous elections, and could therefore make projections based on whether a candidate is doing better than expected or worse.

Just announced: Greg Abbot wins in Texas handily. It was expected, but it’s still good. Davis ran an especially dirty campaign.

UPDATE 10:19: Commenter “Old Texan” writes:

I don’t know why it grinds on me in kind of low bass tones that seem to go on and on while I listen to the newscasters making mouth noises to fill the time.

My sentiments exactly. Except it grinds on me in kind of sharp screechy treble tones that seem to go on and on while I intermittently listen and shut off the newscasters making mouth noises to fill the time.

I was (and still am) really really hoping the GOP would sew up the Senate tonight, and not have to wait and wait to find out. That may or may not happen. By the way, all stations have called the NH race for Shaheen, but as I write this (10:23 PM), Shaheen has 50.5 and Brown 49.5. Unless all votes are in (it’s actually about 56% that are in), or unless the outstanding votes are from strongly Democratic districts (certainly a possibility), that seems rather close. In a state as small as NH, it actually represents a difference of about 2,700 votes.

UPDATE 10:29: It doesn’t affect the Senate, but it’s still big—Scott Walker projected to win in Wisconsin. Not close. That sets him up as a potential nominee in 2016.

UPDATE 10:49: Kansas called for Roberts. That’s big, since the state was thought to be a possible Republican loss. I guess at the last moment Kansans realized Orman is a Democrat. Thank you, Joe Biden!

Election Day reflections

The New Neo Posted on by

Well, here we go again.

I was just thinking something I’ve thought before, that the key to winning with either GOP or conservative candidates is personality.

Yes, yes, yes, principles and experience and intelligence matter. A lot. But—fortunately or unfortunately—in politics, a winning personality isn’t just a metaphor. It’s real.

If someone like Joni Ernst wins in Iowa, for example, personality will have been a key part of it. She’s a happy warrior, full of zest and life and humor. Candidates like that have a tendency to bring stragglers and undecideds to their side, and they invigorate their base as well. This ad of Ernst’s drove the other side nuts. But it was nothing if not bold, and it’s genuinely funny, and it made her famous:

In the past, Republicans have had a tendency to nominate stiff, boring types with a tendency to say stupid stuff. I’m glad to see a few fresh faces this year. Remember that Reagan’s appeal was due in no small measure to his sunny personality. You may not like that fact, but it’s a political reality.