Commenter “Mrs Whatsit” asks:
Is anyone besides me wondering whether the reason that the Obama administration has been so quick to throw Hillary under the bus might be to make room for a new candidate who’d offer the trifecta of being black and female and having great name recognition and besides that, would circumvent the 22nd Amendment ”” that is, Michelle Obama?
I’ve been hearing people predict for years that Michelle would run in 2016. I have never thought so, and I still don’t think so.
It’s not that I don’t think Obama would want it. I just don’t think people would buy it, due to Michelle’s complete and total lack of political experience—and by “people” I mean also Democrats. Hillary Clinton has been a senator for years and then a Secretary of State, and no matter what you think of her performance in each job you can’t deny it’s relevant experience for a run for the presidency. Michelle only has the First Lady experience behind her, which I don’t think would be enough for her to win, even with the Obama name.
People have also long suggested that Obama is going to force some sort of crisis before the 2016 election, declare a state of emergency a la Reichstag fire, and run for a third term. Again, I am fairly certain that he would run again if he could, but I don’t think he can or will. That’s not because I think there won’t be a crisis (manufactured or natural, there are plenty of potential possibilities). Nor is it because the US is so filled with people who are wedded to and protective of the Constitution; I think fewer and fewer people care about the importance of following a constitutional process that protects us against a tyrant. The reason I think Michelle won’t run is that many Democrats and even some on the left are sick of Obama, and they want new blood. For the left, that new blood would be someone like Elizabeth Warren, not Michelle. And since Warren would also be a first woman president, it’s not necessary to the left that she also be black; first black president has been done.
I recall that right before the 2008 election quite a few people thought the economic crisis had been engineered by shadowy behind-the-scenes operators such as Soros, in order to facilitate Obama’s victory. I never bought that conspiracy theory, but it is the case that the economic crisis certainly acted to do just that. And by the way, this seems as good a place as any to point out to those who are angry that McCain ran against Obama, because McCain was such a poor and RINO-esque candidate, that I think you should refresh your memory as to the entire list of Republican candidates that year. Besides McCain, there was Thompson, Huckabee, Ron Paul, Alan Keyes, Duncan Hunter, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney. Who of those do you think would have been able to beat Obama?
My favored candidate at the beginning of the season was Giuliani, but he ran a poor campaign and dropped out. I seem to recall he was rejected as being a RINO by the right of the party. And I don’t see how any of the others would have had a chance against Obama—except perhaps for Romney, but only after the economic downturn. But by then the primaries had ended and the candidate, McCain, had been chosen. McCain was, unfortunately, probably the weakest of all of them on economic affairs (which had become particularly important) and Romney the strongest, which might have meant that by November of 2008 Romney would have been a far better candidate than he seemed to be back when the Republican field was being winnowed down.
That’s one of the problems with the nomination process; it’s not nimble enough to react to changing circumstances—although I think it was highly probable that Obama would have won against any of those 2008 GOP candidates, because Americans were determined to repudiate Bush and the Republicans and go with hope and change.
So here we are.
