Commenter “RickZ” wrote the following today:
We gave the RINOs the Senate in 2014, only to be told from the get-go that ”˜impeachment is off the table’. That was bad enough, but to give everything Choom Boy wanted was beyond the pale; President Give Iran The Bomb doesn’t even have to veto any bills, which speaks volumes about the eGOPs being ”˜an opposition party’.
I’m not highlighting that in order to pick on RickZ. In fact, I agree with him in many ways. Let me list a couple:
I don’t think the GOP has been aggressive enough in fighting Obama. I think both Boehner and McConnell are, if not RINOs exactly, then certainly lackluster and insufficiently motivated to take on either Obama or some of the big issues, both in their rhetoric and personalities and by action. I think much of their hesitancy comes from their desire to please big money donors, a desire shared by the vast majority of Congress. This is a political fact of life inherent in the fact that money is ordinarily needed to get elected and stay elected, and money has an attraction even beyond that.
That said, it’s not true that Obama hasn’t had to veto some bills. One bill that House and Senate did pass but Obama has vetoed was Keystone, a vote which occurred in February of 2015, just one month after the Republican Congress came to power. They were able to accomplish this feat of getting it to the president’s desk for the simple reason that the bill had enough Democratic support to get it past the 60-vote Senate threshold. The Republicans even tried to override Obama’s subsequent veto, although the attempt failed because they couldn’t get enough Democratic votes to reach 2/3. This would almost certainly be the fate of most override votes in this Congress, which doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be tried.
I’ve already said my piece on Corker-Menendez and explained why I think it helps fight the Iran deal rather than being some sort of deceptive kabuki theater that facilitates it. So here I’ll just add that Corker-Menendez is a bill that was passed by House and Senate, and which Obama would dearly have loved to veto. But he did not do so because he knew his veto would be easily overridden. Unfortunately, very few bills are going to get that degree of Democratic support, or even enough to pass the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.
Yesterday the House passed a bill that would withhold certain funds from sanctuary cities. Obama has already threatened to veto it, and his veto probably could not be overridden because of lack of enough crossover Democratic votes. This, unfortunately, would be the fate of most such bills with Obama in the White House. I don’t know whether the particular bill has enough Democratic votes in the Senate to get past the cloture rule—it would need six crossovers to reach the requisite 60 to stop cloture, and it would need seven more than that to override a veto.
And if McConnell were to change the Senate rules and say that suddenly they only needed a simple majority to pass bills there, it wouldn’t help to override a presidential veto anyway, which would still need a 2/3 vote. All that would happen is that the Republican Senate would have thrown away a rule and be subject to a huge amount of criticism in order to get more bills on Obama’s desk that he would then veto. Is it worth it?
Talk about kabuki theater! Yes, it would satisfy the angry conservative wing, but it would accomplish nothing other than paving the way for the Democrats. Why do I say that? Because in order for doing away with the 60-vote rule to actually accomplish anything in terms of legislation, a party has to have both a majority in the Senate (and House) and a president of the same party as that majority, so that bills won’t be vetoed. Historically speaking, the Democrats have been in that position since the FDR years far more often than the Republicans have.
Then there’s the other statement in RickZ’s comment. It goes like this: “We gave the RINOs the Senate in 2014, only to be told from the get-go that ”˜impeachment is off the table’.” I’ve read that sort of thing often, but it is in error, I believe. First of all there’s a simple timing error, which is that Boehner’s statement about impeachment was made before that election of 2014. The second error is a failure to take notice of why Boehner said it and what he actually said.
It was in the summer of 2014. The election would be occurring that November, and the Democrats were sounding the fear drumbeat of “If you elect a Republican Congress, they will impeach President Obama!” Democrats were trying to increase party turnout in the election, which they knew would be crucial for them, and also raise money for the campaign. That was the context of Boehner’s reply:
“It’s all a scam started by Democrats at the White House,” Boehner said at the weekly House GOP leadership press conference.
“This whole talk about impeachment is coming from the president’s own staff and coming from Democrats on Capitol Hill. Why? Because they’re trying to rally their own people to give money and show up in this year’s elections,” Boehner said…
“We have no plans to impeach the president. We have no future plans,” Boehner said.
Note the word “plans,” a well-known weasel word that means only “right now we are not actively planning to do it.” It isn’t any sort of promise to never do it. And not planning to do so was understandable because, without 2/3 of the Senate in order to convict, impeachment in the House would also be kabuki theater. The only effect it would have (other than to placate those conservatives who would enjoy the show) would be to rally support for Obama and the Democrats.
The Republican Congress has now been in session for seven months. You may think they are just playing along and pretending to stand for something, and perhaps you’re correct. I certainly see that possibility; I don’t trust them. But what I see is something a bit different: a Republican Party composed of some people like that and some who are devoted to conservative principles and trying their best, but stymied by a combination of factors, most importantly a president who will veto everything that comes to his desk that he dislikes unless Congress has the magic 2/3 to override, a total that is extremely hard to reach. Even if Congress’ GOP were composed of 100% principled conservatives (which of course it is not), they would still have to face this choice: do you pass bill after bill after bill that Obama will veto (and do it by jettisoning the 60 votes for cloture rule in the Senate) only to have Obama veto those bills? Is that really the best use of the limited time you have available to you?
Every time I write about this general topic I get accused of being a RINO myself, or of wanting to protect them, or of being insufficiently angry at them. I can assure you that I am none of these things (not that everyone will believe me). I have no particular party loyalty and I’m not even a member of the party. I didn’t leave one party to join another or to march in lockstep with them. I am angry that more has not been done; how could anyone not be? But when I look at the facts, I can’t deny them. This is the situation we face: less than 60 votes in the Senate and a president who has no reluctance whatsoever to use his veto pen if he needs to (although when Democrats controlled the Senate he didn’t need to), and a public that will probably turn on Republicans for any sort of government shutdown in response.
I think that the best use of conservative energy among the electorate would be to elect more conservatives to Congress. If conservatives can take over the leadership of the Republican Party in both houses of Congress, than you won’t have Boehner and McConnell to kick around any more. But whoever gets in there, the most helpful thing would be to also elect a Republican president, preferably a conservative. There are a lot of candidates to choose from who fit that description.