…can he make it everywhere?
In other words, what is the significance of Donald Trump’s yuuge win in his home state?
He was expected to win, and win big. That was already factored into projections about his final vote total on the first ballot at the convention, and those predictions have been that he had a good chance of falling a bit short. However, yesterday Trump won even bigger in NY than the polls had predicted, and gets a few more delegates than was expected. That may or may not matter.
Kasich and Cruz did about as expected, with Cruz doing very poorly. New York is not Cruz’s natural territory at all, and he didn’t help himself with his “New York values” statement many months ago. Even though he was quoting Donald Trump, Cruz’s remarks were clumsily phrased and unclear—and ripe for exploitation by Trump, and that’s what happened. But even without those remarks, I don’t think Cruz would ever have done well in NY. And even if Kasich had bowed out and it had been a 2-person race there, I still think that Trump would have garnered all or nearly all of New York’s GOP delegates.
Which brings us to the question of who are these New York GOP voters, and what is their political philosophy? Michael Barone describes them this way:
New York has always believed in commerce and in tolerance, but has had little use for principle. Like Amsterdam in the age of Rembrandt, it is the greatest trading and finance system in the world, with a taste for high art and low life. In New York you are considered “old money” if you have held your fortune for 10 minutes…
It’s a city that, like its son Donald Trump, loves winners — winners like the New York Yankees, hated in much of America but loved in New York. Longtime Yankees owner George Steinbrenner and on-and-off manager Billy Martin may have been brash and boorish, but they were loved in New York. Hey, they were winners.
Trump speaks in the accents and cadences of New York — not of the ancestral rich in Manhattan but in the upward strivers and figure-out-the-angles rich of the outer boroughs and Long Island suburbs…
Only 23 percent of New York state voters are registered Republicans…
In a quick search just now I couldn’t find any statistics on some hard facts about New York’s GOP voters, but I have long noted that victorious GOP politicians in New York (no, that’s not an oxymoron) tend not to be what we’d call conservatives. For example, the city of New York has sometimes had Republican mayors, but those mayors have been far from conservative (Bloomberg, Giuliani, Lindsay).
There have always been more Republicans upstate than in the city, but in recent years they have very rarely been able to overcome the NYC advantage and elect a statewide Republican. In fact, New York has elected only three GOP governors since 1923: Thomas Dewey, Nelson Rockefeller, and George Pataki. Dewey “led the moderate or progressive faction of the Republican Party.” Rockefeller was the quintessential moderate Republican in the same mold. Pataki was more of a mixed bag, but in this year’s primary he endorsed Kasich, which tells us something (and might be one of the reasons for Kasich’s relatively strong showing there).
In the 70s there was one conservative Republican senator from New York, James L. Buckley (William F.’s brother), who was elected (with only 38.7 of the vote) for one term as somewhat of a fluke in a six-candidate race where the liberal GOP vote was split. Jacob Javits, a GOP senator from NY from 1957-1981, was another liberal. Alphonse D’Amato has the distinction of having been New York’s last GOP senator (1981-1999), initially elected because of another split between two liberal candidates, but re-elected after that despite his relative conservatism. But he was an anomaly, and IMHO the end of a rather short line.
So I think we can safely say that New York’s Republicans are not conservatives and were never voting for Cruz in anything but very small numbers. This can probably be said for much of the Northeast GOP: not only has Trump done very well there (and not just in New York), but Kasich has come in second quite reliably. This has been true in Massachusetts, Vermont, and New Hampshire, all of which have already voted. Maine was the anomaly; it went for Cruz, but that was in a caucus and it’s not at all clear whether Cruz would done nearly as well in a primary. You can see exactly the same “Trump, then Kasich” trend in Connecticut polls.
I’m not going to keep going with this, because I think you get the idea: the northeast GOP has not been conservative for a long, long time, and is not especially interested in Cruz. Cruz’s strength in other states that have yet to vote in their primaries is not such that he could ever win on a first ballot. His chances depend on Trump losing on a first ballot—which still could happen. But let’s not kid ourselves; it seems less likely after last night, because there’s something about momentum that is real, and Trump is going to seem a bit more inevitable (although not actually in fact inevitable) after that New York vote.
It seems ironic to me that it comes down to this, after such a promising beginning to the primary season. Ironic and depressing, because of my oft-stated opinion about Trump. I also think Trump has no chance of winning in a general election against Hillary Clinton (whose nomination has always seemed inevitable to me), and Cruz has a better chance but not a great one. On the other hand, I think Rubio could and would have beaten her. Maybe even Kasich could beat her, strangely enough. I’ve written about both before, and am not getting into their merits or demerits in this post, but feel strongly that either would have been a better president than either Trump or Clinton.
And that’s where we stand today. I have no idea if Trump will win on that first ballot, but I give him a better-than-even chance. And I believe that will lead to Hillary Clinton being the next US president. I also believe the entire situation is abysmal.
[NOTE: I also predict that if nominated, Trump will lose New York in the general to Hillary. By the way, this was my 2012 prediction about Hillary’s chances in 2016.]
[ADDENDUM: John Podhoretz is even more pessimistic than I am.]