Iranian hardliners
I’m not going to write much about Iran today. My opinions haven’t changed substantially, and I don’t trust much of the analysis coming out. I certainly plan to say a lot more over time, but right now I just don’t have much to add.
But I wonder whether this has any meaning, or is just some form of theater (I actually think that way about a great many of the statements on both sides):
Iranian ultra-hardliners have launched a fierce campaign against a newly announced framework agreement with the United States, labeling it a humiliating capitulation that betrays the ideals of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The strongest backlash has come from the Paydari Front, also known as the Endurance or Steadfastness Front, which is a small but vocal faction of ideological purists. The group positions itself as the guardian of the revolution’s anti-Western principles.
Either they mean it – which is somewhat encouraging, because it might indicate that the “deal” isn’t a total capitulation on our part – or they don’t. If they don’t, they’re laughing at us behind the scenes and celebrating.
They mean it AND they’re laughing?
I have a theory that the present diplomatic scene between the nations is the Iranians, trying to figure out what they have left, to bully with – I see they’ve announced the Strait is closed again, now that the US has lifted the blockade – and the USA, trying to decipher who is actually in charge, and more importantly, where the hole they’re hiding in, is. So that they can move things on to the next person in charge.
Om said: 96 hour rule.
That makes sense to me. Day-by-day makes me crazy.
Neo: But I wonder whether this has any meaning, …
If you can wait 96 hours, you’ll know.
When you go to war with a fully committed, monstrously evil and absolute mortal enemy… you don’t let them get back on their feet after being knocked to the ground. You end them…. permanently because given another chance they’ll end you with no chance of mercy.
Islam like ALL totalitarian ideologies, shares the dialectic of the Left; “When I am the weaker, I ask you for mercy because that is YOUR principle.
But… when I am the stronger, I show NO mercy because that is MY principle.
The problem is we don’t really know what’s going on in Iran. We blew their central government up in the first days of the war and I assume what is left is actually very fragmented.
Trump is negotiating with somebody, but who that is we have no idea. There are obviously other groups all pushing their own agendas. We have no real idea who they are — the IRGC mosaic groups who are probably still a bit fragmented, the regular army, the Kurds and other ethnic subgroups.
And then there are Iran’s neighbors all pushing their own interests. It is all very opaque. Who knows how many moving parts there actually are.
now that the US has lifted the blockade
We haven’t lifted the blockade, it was to be a phased relaxation following on Iranian performance. You think all the ships just went home? We poured resources into the area for months, they aren’t going anywhere in 24 hours.
Either they mean it
Why wouldn’t they? They’re the old farts of the revolution. I doubt they yet realize how weak their hand is. And maybe they don’t care.
Who knows how many moving parts there actually are.
I think it helps to ask what Trump’s end goal is. My guess is that it is much greater than just settling Iran, I thinks he wants to remake the whole region. There are provisions in the MoU that seem aimed at that, and it also explains his actions in Lebanon.
By not ending the war as it could have been, it will continue as soon as they get their resources back in place with any new found money. They can’t help themselves not to continue their global jihad.
About 25 ships exited the gulf last night and mine clearance is still underway. There were about 550 ships trapped in the gulf, so I expect most will make it out in a month or two. Iran closing the gulf is not really a thing anymore. Much of their previous effectiveness relied on perceived risk, and the risks are better understood now.
My guess is that Trump is very well aware of the fact that the Mullahs will never actually keep to and honor any agreement they might make with the U.S., but, that he has to be seen by the world to have taken every step he could, to try to come to an agreement with them that they will abide by.
Then, when they very obviously don’t keep to any agreement– when diplomacy fails–Trump will have a very good, legitimate reason to finish the job, and to destroy the whole regime.
Win the midterms and get back to business?
Wishful thinking is my greatest vulnerability.
AppleBetty: Agreed. Except it’s going to be a lot more than 96 hours.
Om 96 hour rule is very good. Generally it’ll encompass the rush.of spin by both sides.
Kindasorta thought this once upon a time. Now a couple of others have wondered:
The lefts hugeous double standards notwithstanding (not copyrighted) there is a point where they may be caught not watching. And if the Trump deal includes common-sense not-war stuff for both side, and common sense don’t-war stuff from both sides, then when the other side violates one or both and the left forgot to condemn the requirements first, it shows the other really is the Bad Guy and maybe deserves what he gets. That result being baked into the agreement the left forgot to condemn…don’t FA or you’ll FO. Was supposed to apply to us, since the left’s reflexive public ennobling of the other side, however foul, might come to have been believed in a moment of distraction. But Trump knew (?) the Iranians would FA. Couldn’t avoid it due to facts being against them, facts like time. Plus, like the scorpion, it’s their nature. So the left has, effectively, taken themselves out of the FO part. And it may be, midterms involved in the timing or not, too late to complain effectively.