In yesterday’s comments section, Geoffrey Britain offered this quote from the ever-admirable Thomas Sowell:
Voting for an out of control egomaniac like Donald Trump would be like playing Russian Roulette with the future of this country. Voting for someone with a track record like Hillary Clinton’s is like putting a shotgun to your head and pulling the trigger. And not voting at all is just giving up.
Nobody said that being a good citizen would be easy.
Those are actually the last two paragraphs of a column of Sowell’s that indicts both Trump and Hillary, and states that in this election “the worst case scenario may be only marginally worse than the best case scenario.” So whatever Sowell thinks about his Russian Roulette vs. shotgun-to-the-head analogy (I assume, of course, that he means a loaded shotgun), he also thinks that chances of disaster with each scenario are probably pretty darn good.
That Sowell column was published two days ago, and appears to have been written before Trump’s recent precipitous decline in the polls. It remains to be seen whether that drop will reverse itself, but right now things are not looking good for the Trumpster. As Megyn Kelly put it:
“It’s true that the mainstream media now hates Trump,” she said. “But must he help them? Must he help them so generously every day?”
Apparently, he must—it is his nature. Or, it is a well-thought-out strategy to—well, to what? Those who think that Trump has always been intent on throwing the election to Hillary (I am not one of those people) find it easy to understand. Those who think Trump is a brilliant Master Persuader (I am not one of those people, either) say it will be to his advantage in the end. Everyone else (that includes yours truly) thinks it’s just his nature to say outrageous things in his defense when he feels he’s been attacked, and also to generally say things that sound as though he hasn’t done his homework because in fact he has not done his homework.
Now that we’ve gotten all of that out of the way, let’s get down to the Sowell quote. Would that it were as simple as Sowell states! I have spent a lot of time pondering the issue, which has been discussed ad nauseam on just about every blog long before Sowell wrote that, usually being expressed something like this: “We know what Hillary will do, and it’s awful; we know only what Trump might do that’s awful, and therefore it’s better to vote for him. At least there’s a chance.”
That, in a nutshell, is Sowell’s argument, too. The problem with the argument is embedded in it: we don’t know what Trump will do. Sowell compares Hillary to a loaded shotgun pointed at one’s head—if the trigger is pulled, you are dead. He compares Trump to a game of Russian Roulette, which means there’s a chance you live.
That’s a terrible but still an easy choice. But to me—although I have deep respect for Sowell’s brilliance—that’s a bad analogy. It posits two conditions, and one possible victim: gun loaded or 1 in 6 chance of gun loaded, and the gun is pointed at you. But maybe the number of possible victims is different with Hillary and Trump, and who says the chances of Trump screwing up royally (accidentally or purposely) are only one in six? Perhaps the proper analogy would go something like: Hillary Clinton has the loaded shotgun pointed at everyone in the nation, whereas Trump may have the shotgun pointed at everyone in the world, and we don’t have a clue what the chances of that are.
You don’t have to believe that Trump is actually reckless enough to start—or to unwittingly enable the start of—a nuclear war, to be concerned about the possibility, or to realize that many people are concerned, and that their concern is not crazy. And in fact, a president actually does have a great deal of power in that regard (nuclear weapons), as recent research I’ve done has proven to me, to my surprise. Before this, I had dismissed the idea as impossible—after all, the system has all sorts of checks and balances and requirements for approval by others along the way, doesn’t it? The short answer (and I plan to write a post in the next week or so that gives the long answer, because it’s complicated) is is no, not so much, and certainly not to the extent I originally thought.
When you go to that piece I just linked, you can skip the whole first part (which reports tentatively on a Trump conversation that most likely did not occur) and go right to the paragraph that begins “In 2008, then”“Vice President Dick Cheney said something pretty chilling about nuclear weapons during a Fox News appearance…” and then keep reading. The point I’m trying to make is that a president really does have a great deal of power in that regard, and therefore it’s at least theoretically possible that the risk of a nuclear conflagration with an unstable or impulsive or ignorant president is greater than the very great risk Hillary Clinton poses to this country.
Now, you don’t have to agree that Trump is any of those things: unstable or impulsive or ignorant. Or, you may believe he’s all of those things, but not that unstable or impulsive or ignorant. Trouble is, you could be underestimating his instability or impulsiveness or ignorance, and overestimating his ability to use sound judgment, and the consequences of that would be extremely dire. Whatever you (or I) may think, more and more other people are starting to feel that Trump actually might be capable of the unthinkable, and that includes the people he would need to persuade of his stability, steadfastness, and knowledge, if he is going to get elected.
The danger with Trump was always his lack of flexibility in terms of repertoire and personality. His promoters kept saying that once he was nominated we’d see a pivot to greater presidentiality. His sober and serious and reassuring side would come out. Instead, lately he has been acting more of a loose cannon (interesting metaphor, no?) than ever.
It does no good to say that a big-mouthed blusterer isn’t necessarily crazy, nor do such people usually consider murdering millions or billions of people with nuclear weapons. That’s certainly true. But we’ve never had a presidential candidate before that gives that impression. The LBJ forces liked to accuse Goldwater of having such a tendency (the famous “Daisy” ad), but in terms of personality he clearly did not. And yet even then the accusations damaged him.
People don’t like to play Russian Roulette with a president whose finger is (metaphorically) on the nuclear button, because the risks are just too high. And the more impulsive and bombastic and just plain weird Trump’s statements become, the more he scares people rather than reassuring them. It’s about personality and character: can I rely on this guy’s judgment and ability to curb his impulse to retaliate? To point out that his retaliations are all verbal makes sense but is irrelevant to the deeper issue, which is: who is this man? Is he reasonable? How does he react to stress? Does he strike out without thinking much? If the answer to the last two questions are “poorly” and “yes,” than the candidate has got a problem, a big big one.
Trump has a problem, a big big one.
When making his shotgun analogy, Sowell calls Trump an “out of control egomaniac.” That’s actually it in a nutshell, because if Trump is “out of control,” people fear that he might just be get more out of control if given the reins of a kind of power he’s never had before and only dreamed about. And if he’s an “egomaniac,” then note the root word “maniac,” which doesn’t offer people a lot of reassurance, either. And note that the definition of “egomania” includes (emphasis mine): “an obsessive preoccupation with one’s self and applies to someone who follows their own ungoverned impulses…”
I do not think that Trump is crazy, insane, or mentally ill. But his behavior lately is not reassuring to people, and one wonders why it has gotten more extreme. One of the possible reasons is that he’s having trouble handling the stress, and although this is a man who definitely has known responsibility and stress in his life, it was of a very very different kind and in an arena where he was very comfortable about his own knowledge base (real estate development and suing people who diss him). Now he’s under a great deal more stress, and in unfamiliar territory.
Nothing Trump is doing right now is reassuring. He was supposed to become more focused and presidential; the opposite has happened. And on the specific topic of nuclear weapons, even though he has made many statements about how reluctant he would be to ever use them (see, for example, the first and last statements in this list), unfortunately we’ve learned that Trump says a great many contradictory things and we can’t rely on anything he says. People do not want to play Russian Roulette on this particular issue, and on this one issue of nuclear weaponry most people trust that Hillary Clinton—whatever other deep and myriad flaws she clearly has—is not going to do something enormously destructive either impulsively or through ignorance. It is harder to trust Donald Trump on that score.
I don’t usually agree with much on Vox, but I can’t really fault what they’re saying here, unfortunately:
It’s not clear, in this mostly incoherent answer [to Hugh Hewitt about the nuclear triad], that Trump actually knows what the triad is. When Hewitt pressed him, Trump answered with a single line: “I think, for me, nuclear is just the power, the devastation is very important to me.”
Clearly, Trump doesn’t know the most basic thing about nuclear weapons ”” how the United States can launch them. This level of ignorance about the literal facts of nuclear weapons, together with his generally uneducated approach to policy, means it’s very likely he also doesn’t understand the strategic role of nuclear weapons.
Trump might order the use of nuclear weapons against ISIS ”” indeed, he has refused to rule it out in interviews ”” just because he has promised to wipe out the terrorist threat. We cannot know that he takes nuclear weapons as seriously he should.
The other reason for concern is his character…
Think of all the bizarre feuds Trump has gotten himself into…In all of them, he has displayed a similar pattern: irrational overreaction to perceived insults and slights.
Now imagine that same tendency to overreact to insults, only with Trump’s finger on the nuclear button. Would he order a nuclear strike on a country merely because he felt its leader had disrespected him?
I hope not. But the truth is that we don’t know ”” which makes every stray Trump comment about nukes, even thinly sourced speculation like Scarborough’s, deeply terrifying.
Whether it terrifies you, it terrifies a great many people. And these are people Trump needed to persuade of just the opposite—his good judgment and ability to control himself. He has failed in that endeavor, and I’m not at all sure that anything he could say or do at this point could change that.
It’s not what I was hoping for, and I doubt it’s what you were hoping for. But there it is, and I cannot ignore it and pretend that things are the least bit okay right now.
[NOTE: For another of Trump’s statements about nuclear weapons that could give people pause, see this for example. There are others.]