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Home » Open thread 8/7/2025

Open thread 8/7/2025

The New Neo Posted on by

What is it with turkeys and hospitals? I keep seeing them when I visit people in hospitals, like this little turkey family from a couple of days ago:

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Open thread 8/7/2025 — 28 Comments

  1. https://www.commentary.org/seth-mandel/weve-tried-nothing-and-were-all-out-of-ideas/

    This is non-crazy Democrats’ political problem in a nutshell: The “genocide” lie has gone from opinion to gospel among part of the base. In October of last year, I warned that this was exactly where political anti-Zionism was headed.

    And here we are: Democrats who see themselves as moderate in bearing but progressive on policy fear that even sounding reasonable will itself be cause for disqualification among primary voters.

  3. Our peace-loving chief executive is holding another bring-em-together session today and tomorrow with the adversarial Armenian PM and the Azerbaijani President, aiming to fashion a peace between the two nations built upon commercial ties and separation from their former masters in Moscow. Dude just never stops, does he?
    https://x.com/Doranimated/status/1953437234876530842

    Details at link.

  7. WRT to turkeys, it is always a treat to see these cautious, reclusive creatures in the wild; although I don’t suppose hospital grounds would be termed ‘in the wild’.
    Perhaps the best place to see virtual, but highly domesticated turkeys would be at the troughs that the Congress keeps stocked.

    Speaking of full troughs, Powerlineblog reports good news today. One high profile Perp in the “Feeding the Future” debacle-scam was sentenced to 28 years. In his heart rending plea for mercy, the criminal cited the terrible conditions in Africa which brought his family to the U.S. and necessitated that he steal from us. To date there have been 71 arrests associated with this fraud.

    Congresswoman Omar, who was closely associated with the program and some of the Somali migrants involved in the fraud, and received campaign contributions from them, has not been connected to their fraudulent activities. Like so many Democrat officials in Minnesota, and the Federal government, she did not notice that nearly $300M were being diverted from feeding allegedly starving children during the COVID Panic.
    Acting U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson (the senate won’t confirm him) has diligently done his job to bring justice to the criminals associated with this scandal.

  8. I was thinking about Social Security and Tariffs today as I was working. What if Trump / Republican Congressional leaders announced that the SS and the General Federal revenue would be again separated with 1/2 or 3/4 of all tariffs collected going directly into the SS fund to save it? How would that go over?

  9. @Jon Baker:1/2 or 3/4 of all tariffs collected going directly into the SS fund to save it? How would that go over?

    Moot, because mathematically it doesn’t work. Tariffs alone could never save Social Security; even if there were some magic wand to do it, it’s just another way of raising taxes to save Social Security. Tariffs are not a magic pot of money that appears out of nowhere.

    2024 US imports were $340 billion. $1500 billion was paid out in SS that year. The tariff rate that could make a dent in Social Security would shut off imports. When you tax something that much people stop doing it (or they evade the taxes, or both).

  11. There are turkeys all over my neighborhood. About a week ago I had to stop my car while moma led her foot high chicks across the road. I’m always surprised by how big they are, gigantic compared to the birds at my feeders.

  12. @David Foster: Good catch there, thanks. Maybe I found a monthly number by mistake. Looks like 2024 imports were more like $4000 billion.

    So there might be enough money in imports to tax them enough to stabilize Social Security without killing imports, but like I said before, that’s just raising taxes to pay for Social Security, they could be any kind of taxes.

    Social Security’s shortfall is just under 4% of payroll taxes, for 2024 that would have been about $350 billion, which would be almost a 9% tariff on all imports to make up that difference. But it’s the same set of taxpayers underneath. Why not raise payroll taxes 4%, or reduce benefits, raise the retirement age, any or all of these, instead of tying them to imports which can vary due to things that have nothing to do with the number of people working or the number of people retired?

    Of course now we just borrow the money and turn the SS shortfall into interest payments. It would be an improvement in that regard.

  13. In Texas the Turkey is considered one of the most elusive game animal. In some parts of Colorado they perch on your shoulders, you almost have to beat them off with a stick!

  14. I can’t brain today, I have the dumb. The Social Security’s shortfall is not just under 4% of “payroll taxes”, it’s 4% of “taxable payroll” which is a much bigger number. Going from 12.4% to 16.2% would fix it (probably with half paid “by the employer” as usual).

  15. Wild turkeys are reported overwintering in an exurb of Boston, where my son resides. Once you start feeding them, you may not stop lest they starve.

  16. I once wrote a poem about wild turkeys in Boston:
    _______________________________________

    “Wednesday Morning, 3 A.M.” West Roxbury Turkey Crossing

                                    For twenty-five dollars and pieces of silver
                                    I have held up and robbed a hard liquor store..
                                    –Paul Simon, “Wednesday Morning, 3 A.M.”

    you know that feeling you can get at 3 a.m. on a weekday morning when you’re awake in the deepest dark of the early hours before people go to work and maybe you’ve been up all night reading making love or talking with an old friend or maybe you’re just young and alone and awake for the first time while everyone else is asleep everything has stopped and you’re alive to the very radiant mystery of life itself you can hear a star twinkling or a pebble dropped on the moon and the chairs tables and walls are still and eerie and you can descend into the dark shining core of it all that’s what I thought that Simon & Garfunkel song was about well my sister asked was that what it was about no when I finally heard the lyrics it was a straight folkie number about some guy feeling remorse that he robbed a liquor store so now he must leave his lover and his life is ruined there was no mystery whatsoever then the car ahead of us came to a halt at the stop sign and into the crosswalk strode a large wild male turkey with that extra bit of red flesh hanging over his beak dark brown feathers with lustrous bronze sheen and behind him another turkey then another and another thirteen in all like earnest schoolchildren they proceeded across the road in single file onto a well-to-do suburban lawn covered with patches of clean Christmas snow and in the wintry dusk even the wild Boston drivers stayed put as these turkeys each the size of my sister’s cattle dog strolled over the broad white stripes marking the pavement they seemed to know what they were doing they seemed to know where they were going on their way to keeping whatever promises turkeys keep

  19. Barry Meislin…”The Fictions Holding Down the Economy”

    Their first item is: “The Industrial Revolution made workers poorer”

    Of course, they are correct that the industrial revolution actually made workers richer; indeed, mechanization has been the primary driver of improved standards of living. But the early stages of the Industrial Revolution were quite painful for a lot of people. For a contemporary view, see Peter Gaskell’s book ‘Artisans and Machinery,’ published in 1836.

    https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/71371.html

  20. But the early stages of the Industrial Revolution were quite painful for a lot of people.

    David Foster:

    Quite so.

    The Luddites get a bad rap as superstitious anti-technology rubes. But they weren’t against technology, they were against losing their skilled jobs.

    And they were right.

    Most did lose their jobs and careers. Eventually, of course, automation created more jobs than had been destroyed, but too late to help the Luddites.

    These days I’m bracing to see what’s ahead with AI. According to David Shapiro it’s already happening:
    ___________________________

    The Silent Disruption: Unpacking AI’s Real Toll on the U.S. Labor Market in 2025

    I have evidence that we’ve shed 300,000 to 500,000 jobs in 2025 alone due to AI and automation. Let me show you the numbers, the methodology, and the interpretation of these data.

    https://daveshap.substack.com/p/the-silent-disruption-unpacking-ais

  21. @Jon Baker:1/2 or 3/4 of all tariffs collected going directly into the SS fund to save it? How would that go over?

    “Moot, because mathematically it doesn’t work.” Niketas Choniates

    True but when in memory has Congress let reality veto political theater?

  23. In regard to the comments on SS initiated by Jon Baker and extended by NC, the real problem is that SS is essentially a Ponzi scheme, that denies citizens’ obligations (and responsibility) to prepare for their own retirement. Now it is “everyone pays for the other guy’s retirement” so eventually “everyone will pay for mine”. And the transference from a welfare program to an “insurance” program (by 1939 act of Congress? initially vetoed by FDR) was part of the scam to pretend people without sufficient retirement funds were treated with “dignity” and not being put on or relying on “the dole”.

    Clearly some fraction of the lowest 20% and maybe some of the next 20% need help in that area and some others (education, health, housing?), so a general program to support that 10% to 15% cohort can and should be developed – just not applicable to everyone else who has the capability to meet their responsibilities.

    Similar for Medicare: forcing everyone to enroll at age 65 when they should have been preparing for end of life care and paying for health insurance for unknown risks and paying for “normal” medical expenses as part of “health or body maintenance”. Publishing prices and moving to first party paying so the healthcare market can work is part of that solution.

  24. R2L,
    Yes, please!!
    We need to stop the mad, busted ponzi scheme! Stop indoctrination of that awful, late-life model!
    The worst symbol of aging is the angst of seniors waiting on government checks/deposits. Stressing over news about political moves related to SS or medicare.
    …
    Maybe that’s the goal… to shorten the human life by the constant stress of government dependency.

  25. In regard to the comments on SS initiated by Jon Baker and extended by NC, the real problem is that SS is essentially a Ponzi scheme,
    ==
    The term ‘Ponzi scheme’ does not mean what you fancy it means.
    ==
    that denies citizens’ obligations (and responsibility) to prepare for their own retirement.
    ==
    The Congress which enacted it was composed of men of various ages, median probably around 50. That would be men who saw the midpoint of their formative years around 1897, when about 35% of the population was living in farm households. The ratio of those voting for the legislation to those voting against or abstaining was 5.8 to 1. That ratio among Republican members of Congress was 2 to 1.
    ==
    Similar for Medicare: forcing everyone to enroll at age 65 when they should have been preparing for end of life care and paying for health insurance for unknown risks
    ==
    Medical insurance was unknown prior to the 1920s. About 12% of the population was in possession of it as of 1940.
    ==
    Ayn Rand took her bloody Social Security benefits.
    ==
    You’re not very persuasive or entertaining cosplaying Rose Wilder Lane.

  26. Social Security and Medicare &c. can be repaired doing several things our feckless Congress refuses to do.
    ==
    A. Have cohort-specific retirement ages. They’d be adjusted periodically in response to new demographic data then freeze when you hit 55. The mission would be to have the ratio of beneficiaries to workers paying in bounce around a set point.
    ==
    B. Make some procedural adjustments to the award and review of Disability benefits which scrape away some dubious awards and stop awarding benefits to people for ‘anxiety disorders’ and ‘mood disorders’ (who now account for about 1/4 of those on the rolls).
    ==
    C. Add deductibles to Medicare each year so that the ratio of Medicare re-imbursements to total personal income flow bounces round a set point.
    ==
    D. Finance Social Security and Medicare entirely out of a levy on total compensation which tops out at a particular dollar value. The dollar value would be a function of nominal-employee-compensation-per-worker in the economy at large and would be adjusted annually. Finance unemployment compensation in part by such a levy and in part by an actuarially-rated charge on employers. (Workman’s compensation in each state can continue be financed by an actuarially-rated charge on employers). A levy of 16% on total compensation topping out at about $35,000 might suffice to finance Social Security, Medicare, and the employee’s portion of unemployment compensation.
    ==
    E. Have a broad definition of taxable income (e.g. any benefit to one’s household less in-kind benefits from governments and philanthropies, judgments, indemnities, gifts, inheritance, capital gains, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment compensation, SSI, and the excess of nominal interest over real interest). Define income tax liability as (0.4 x T) – (P) – (c x m), where “T” is one’s taxable income, “P” is one’s payroll tax payments during the year, “c” is a general credit whose dollar value is adjusted each year pari passu with the change in nominal personal income per capita, and ‘m’ is the membership of one’s household for tax purposes (say, 1.0 for each signatory to the return, 0.0-1.0 for each juvenile dependent contingent on custody and support arrangements, 0.0 to 1.0 for each adult under your guardianship contingent on custody or support arrangements, and 0.0-0.6 for each person under 21 once a juvenile dependent). Some people will have a positive liability, some a negative liability. Those with a negative liability will be due a net rebate. The maximal net rebate would be the formula resultant, but many families would not receive that because to avoid perverse incentives the net rebate would have to be capped. If no signatory qualifies as elderly or disabled, the cap would be a function of their earned income; if both were, it would be a function of nominal personal income per capita in their region; if one was and the other was not, it would be an average of these two quanta. This general credit could replace the EITC and the net rebates replace a scrum of federal welfare programs (SNAP and other nutrition programs, housing subsidies, TANF, LIHEAP, and miscellany). Posit that you collect about 7.5% of gross domestic product in income taxes. About 1/2 is distributed to impecunious people in net rebates and about half is deposited in a loosely dedicated fund out of which expenditures for Medicaid, SSI, veterans benefits, disaster relief, and miscellaneous subsidies for niche clientele are financed).
    ==
    F. Maintain Medicaid spending at a particular share of gross domestic product via a set of co-pays and deductibles.
    ==
    G. Impose on new arrivals to the United States enhanced co-pays and deductibles on Medicaid which decline pari passu with their household’s history of fte employment manifest in payroll tax with-holdings. The ratio of their enhanced charges to the standard charges would fall to unity after they logged 48 quarters of full-time employment. Annul federal judicial decisions which require local authorities to provide schooling to new arrivals and allow them to institute a fee schedule which would fall to nil over a period of years.
    ==
    H. Rely on a federal value added tax and a federal corporation tax for general revenues.

  27. Art remains a wonk after my own heart.

    Tho his reasonable proposals all miss the guiding, problematic democracy issue of supporting govt programs that benefit while raising taxes on others.

    While it’s very economically true that there are no free lunches, we’ve all enjoyed many lunches others have paid for, free for us. Getting a free lunch is a key desire of many voters.

    It should be feasible to get better reduced benefits thru 48 quarter changes, tho 100 monthly changes would usually be my preference (12 & 8.3 years)

  28. Let’s start by reducing the fraud that is epidemic in Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, and then see where the numbers are.

    Ideally, we would eliminate the fraud, but that is a non-starter given the lack of meaningful Congressional oversight, some perverse legislative incentives, lax or nonexistent use of controls that already exist de jure but not de facto, and so forth.
    DOGE should be made permanent and a cohort attached to every possible program and department.
    Of course, then the fraud just moves to the overseers (who will guard the guardians?), but it’s a start.

    Fraud will never be zero because there are always people who work hard to avoid working honestly.

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