We all know the superficial answer to the question of why Trump threatened the Republican members of Congress known as the Freedom Caucus: because they thwarted him in the passage of the Obamacare reform bill (Ryancare, Trumpcare, GOPcare, whatever you want to call it). But his action—that of a new president publicly threatening to oppose and topple an important wing of his own party during the next election—is unusual enough (at least, in this country) to draw attention and questions.
Was it a temper tantrum from a juvenile president angry at not getting his way?
Was it a well-thought-out strategy designed to intimidate and control some members of Congress who were getting too big (and too contrary) for their britches?
Was it payback to the conservatives who failed to back him sufficiently during his campaign?
And will it have any effect at all (other than bringing joy to the hearts of liberals everywhere)? Will it actually intimidate the members of the Freedom Caucus?
I’ll take that last question first: no. For example:
“It didn’t take long for the swamp to drain @realDonaldTrump,” tweeted Rep. Justin Amash, R-Mich. “No shame, Mr. President. Almost everyone succumbs to the D.C. Establishment.”…
As for a possible challenge in 2018, [Rep. Trent] Franks said: “If somebody can get to the right of me in the primaries God bless them.”
That response from Franks prompts the question of what sort of candidates would Trump try to replace the Freedom Caucus members with—moderates? Trump lackeys?:
Recruiting primary opponents to run against sitting House Republicans is easier said than done, said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of The Cook Political Report.
For one thing, it will be hard to find challengers more conservative than many Freedom Caucus members, Duffy said. There also may not be many establishment Republicans willing to be considered “Trump’s candidate” in a tough primary race.
“I think he might believe he can recruit candidates,” she said, “because he’s never actually had to do it.”
There are a lot of things Trump has never done before that he thinks he will be able to do. It’s part of the confidence that reassured and heartened a lot of people who voted for him—that, and his business record. I was not one of those reassured and heartened people, and I’m still not. I’m happy with some of Trump’s moves, particularly the nomination of Gorsuch. And I’m happy, very happy, that Hillary Clinton isn’t president. But there are a lot of “buts.”
Nor am I surprised at these anti-Freedom Caucus tweets of Trump’s (which I feel are empty threats so far). Trump has a long record of attacking and threatening anyone who crosses him, and it goes back way before he entered politics. I agree with this analysis:
Matt Mackowiak, a Republican political consultant based in Texas, said there is “a natural contrast” between Trump and many GOP conservatives, one that may be deeper any side realizes.
“Donald Trump is all about deals and the Freedom Caucus is all about principles,” Mackowiak said. “I’m not sure it can be fixed on health care, and the more frustrated Trump gets, the more likely he will be to try to cut deals with Democrats.”
It’s hard to say how a split would affect the 2018 elections, Mackowiak said, though he added: “A narrower (Republican) majority in the next Congress would make Trump and Ryan’s job even harder than it is now.”
It is my impression that Trump wanted a bill passed, and he wanted to pass it quickly and then to move on to other things. On what points did Trump and the Freedom Caucus disagree? I couldn’t find too many articles on that, but here’s one. It appears to me to be a valid disagreement between the two sides on how reconciliation would work and what the bill would be allowed to cover, but it also seems to me that this was a disagreement that could have been ironed out as the answers to those questions were clarified with more time.
But Trump was determined to rush it:
Mick Mulvaney told Republicans behind the doors behind me, he said that the president wants a vote tomorrow, and is moving on after this vote regardless of what happens.”
A source from within the room told Bash that if the bill doesn’t pass, Trump said “he is moving on, and they will be stuck with Obamacare.”
Another threat that didn’t work. Of perhaps it did work, depending on Trump’s goal. A lot of people (me included) have pointed out that Trump is somewhat to the left on health care reform, and that he probably only added that campaign rhetoric about repealing Obamacare because he figured it would help him win, rather than out of any sense of outrage at Obamacare itself. Therefore his idea of a good system to replace it is not going to resemble the ideas of a conservative, because on this issue he isn’t conservative at all. So perhaps his goal all the time was to get a green light to work with Democrats to tweak Obamacare a bit but essentially leave it in place, and ignore and condemn the conservative wing of the GOP in the process.
However, I have little doubt that, if that’s the case, most of Trump’s more avid supporters will shrug and excuse it—and blame Congress instead.