Today’s Iran news
Yesterday I wrote this about rumors of a deal with Iran close to completion. There were five points involved, and I remarked:
It’s a nice wishlist, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
And then what? If a Democrat gets elected president, will everything go out the window? Isn’t that what the Iranian regime – which plays the long game – is counting on? How would the Trump administration be able to guarantee a deal would last long enough to matter? I don’t think they’re unaware of the problem. But I hope they’re very creative about the solution.
Then again, the deal may fall through again, and the war resume.
Today Trump says it will happen tomorrow:
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 13, 2026
Is Trump a chump or a wily fox? Lucy, football? Obama-deal lite? Something that will last and actually mean something?
I have a very bad feeling in the pit of my stomach about this. I don’t think the current leaders of Iran can be trusted, and it feels as though this gives them a reprieve and that Trump has been played. Then again, I don’t know. I really, really, really don’t know, and people who say they do are wrong – unless they are on the inside, and maybe not even then.
I think it will be a while before this plays out and we can even being to tell what it means, but I am filled with trepidation at the moment.
Lee Smith agrees with Neo’s forebodings: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/trump-pallets-cash-iran
My pool pick is Iran will bteak it in 26 hrs after signing.
I would guess that both sides have placed their bets on the ’28 election.
I wish they were bombed into the stone age. But I keep going back to Kurt Schlichter’s column earlier this week…..if regime change happens then it will be a big win.
I do t see how anyone with a brain would ever trust the Iranians….and I assume that means the administration. But…..
Typo alert: in final sentence “even being to tell” should be “even begin to tell”
Even without nuclear capability, Iran can do a lot of harm with ballistic missiles, which they seem able to build in large numbers. Israel has been able to continue functioning under sustained missile attack, not sure how many other countries that would be true of…how would today’s UK react to continuous missile attacks on London, or today’s France to continuous attacks on Paris?
And the range of the missiles will continuously be increasing, and even without nuclear detonation capability, radiological attacks as well as conventional high-explosive missile attacks will likely be threatened.
This week’s Mariv Poll on Israeli attitutes – looks like they agree with Neo:
“Meanwhile, 62 percent of poll respondents expressed distrust in Trump, while 21 percent said they trust him regarding Israeli interests in any agreement, and 17 percent said they did not know. A poll published by Israel’s Public Broadcaster (KAN) on 28 April found that a majority of Israelis believe the state has failed to secure victory in any war since October 2023.
According to the survey, 57 percent of respondents said no victory had been achieved, while 28 percent believed success had been reached in at least one arena, and a further 15 percent said they were unsure.”
If Trump isn’t going to put US boots on the ground, and he has said he won’t, tho it seems he’s mentioned it remains an option, then he has to be open to a deal.
Trust, but verify. And if (we all expect when) Iran, or some rogue part of Iran’s govt, violates the signed agreement?
That seems to me it becomes a NEW casus belli, for new 60-90 day window of response w/o Congress veto, so at that time Trump can use it to restart the bombing. Maybe even use US Marines & Army to take over some of the Iranian islands in the strait.
But if Iran makes a deal, and keeps it, the Iranian people lose. Sadly; no heroic (but costly in US lives) Unconditional Surrender. 1 or 10 or 100 US soldiers is worth more to Trump than 50,000 Iranians. And he’s not completely, nor especially politically, wrong.
The issue is with Muslims, and a key is their observance of “taqqia”. which is the Muslim necessity and right to lie to non- Muslims. Islam requires truth only in Muslim-Muslim transactions.
So hoping for a sound US-Iran agreement fealty is an absurdity. Wake up, White House!
As Tom Grey says, short of bombing them into the Stone Age and putting US boots on the ground, a deal of some kind was going to be struck. If the Strait stays open, so far, so good. If, or when, some major violation occurs, we still have bombs.
Sheeze. We let Iran do pretty much whatever it wants since 1980, and as of today their navy is at the bottom of the ocean, not just the ayatollah but dozens of top officials and military officers are gone, military infrastructure deeply wounded. All this done with western media actively supporting the Iranian regime, publishing propaganda that is picked up as truth (like the UAE to Iran payments referred to in the second paragraph of the linked Patch article, which is vehemently denied by the UAE).
So first let me call out all the ingrates who must of approved of Iran policy before Trump?
Second, I’ll point out there is one, and only one objective: ‘nuclear dust’. I see people bringing up conventional missiles, civilians, Israeli polls, and…nothing at all about the dust.
The simple fact is that if the dust is returned and they leave the Persian Gulf alone, they can go back to being the maniacs they were, and regime change will have to come from Iranian citizens and the countries in the immediate area. I’m sure there will be soft power and dark ops by the US in the background to support this, but to the average American, Iran will fall out of the US news if these two things are met.
I don’t know why anyone would get upset by this stuff. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t, if not we pick up and continue. The blockade will remain in place until conditions improve. And Trump is attempting to manipulate Iranian politics while this is going on, so it is a tricky business. So it goes, I’m not worried.
I don’t link to JPost anymore, but here’s a headline if you want to go check it out on your own.
Live Updates: IDF continues to target Hezbollah, as Iran says signing of MoU will not take place on Sunday
I sympathize with the concerns of everyone here. But we should be thinking about the time frame involved. This regime has been terrorizing the planet for FORTY-FIVE YEARS. It may be a lot to ask it be brought down in the space of a few months.
I’m not going to predict anything, it just gives me a chance to be wrong. There is an element of unpredictability whenever the Middle East or Trump are involved and here we have both. I will only say that Trump may be thinking in the long term. And if some kind of “deal” is made soon it might not be the end but rather the beginning of something else.
Remember, the IRGC bottom feeders can no longer sleep until they’re hungry, then eat until they’re tired. The world catches up with your bad habits.
We all do realize that not only the US and not only Iran are involved in the negotiations? Qatar, Egypt, Oman, Turkey, Jordan, and Pakistan I have seen named among the participants. I have no doubt that is part of what makes it take longer, but it also is part of what would make the agreement more likely to be kept if Muslim allies of the US are doing part of the negotiation and the enforcement.
I don’t trust the IRGC at all and they will renege on any deal made with them as soon as it is in their interests to do so. I sympathize with those who say that Trump “should just finish the job” but how would he do this exactly? There is no political will in this country to do what it would take to destroy the IRGC. An expanded war that cost hundreds or thousands of lives would destroy Trump and the Republican party.
I was hoping that we would be able to turn the regular Iranian army against the IRGC but that hasn’t happened and it doesn’t appear that the regime will be overthrown from within.
It is possible that in the future our cyber, drone and robot capabilities will make it possible to overthrow a regime like the IRGC without massive loss of life or devastating destruction but we are not there yet.
Everyone, Please!
Calm down.
Just look at the title of the next post.
Why would anyone think Trump is going to be ‘played’? The man is ruthless – he uses the word ‘retribution with no shame – amazing in our modern political world.
The whole ‘deal maker persona’ is just a role he plays on the way to getting what he wants.
Unsinkable!!
As for “trepidation”, yes well…entirely understandable.
Nonetheless it’s also very possible that the Iranians will step in at the very last moment and save the day…
Benny Johnson has contacts with Team Trump. And both they and air flight data indicate the MoU is all go.
The physical aspect of travel tools he cites in his Saturday YouTube post is concrete.
Air Tracking tells us that 5 US C17 Cargo planes are going to Geneva in support of Trump’s visit to France for the G7 Summit next week.
And 4 US C-17 cargo planes are going to Ramstein Air Force Base in support of Veep Vance’s Swiss visit to nail down a MoU with Iran. Even a previously ambiguous Iranian leader says that it’s on.
Benny’s point is that this time it really is different: it’s on because of this physical commitment.
Still, my commitment is to wait more and see soon enough. But these types of indicators ground some (or more) optimism by Trump.
Cicero brings up a salient point: it’s islam, stupid. (To borrow a phrase from the loathsome, but cunning James Carville.) To be more specific, it’s the brand of islam, typically but not exclusively shia, that seeks to establish a caliphate across the entire globe and actually believes this is their destiny and that anything that advances that goal is acceptable. That is the driving force behind most islamic terror everywhere, not just Iran, although it finds its most concentrated and toxic incarnation in that blighted faux “country.” (Recall that its geographic boundaries are the creation of England and France post-WW I and it contains what was once Persia, but encompasses areas containing other ethnic groups.) Can one hope to make a binding agreement with such people, whose goal is world hegemony and whose tactics include taqqiya? Only if there are enough non-fanatical moslems (or others) to control the fanatics. We are constantly told that “the Persian people” of Iran have had enough, and are ready to rise up and take back control of their country, and if that is true, then there is hope. If not, should the mullahs and those who have made alliance with them remain in power, there can never be a lasting arrangement, but merely a false peace, or hudna, while they regroup and rearm pending their next violent out-lashing.
Steve
WRT Islam. Concur.
To be able to predict what someone is going to do is not the same as “trusting” them.
So….I am pretty sure what the IRGC and its follow-on big shots will do. And I am pretty sure what the democrats will do. In neither case is the term “trust” appropriate.
But the combination is frightening.
After a barrage of Hezbollah drones launched and struck in Israel today the IDF has returned fire into Dahiyeh hitting a Hezbollah command site. We’ll see where it goes.
Oh, and happy birthday Pres. Trump. Congrats on yer Knicks!
Iran should just make a deal, wait for a demonrat to be President , and they – and everybody else in our solar system – knows that Iran will then be totally free to violate with impunity any agreement they sign with Trump.
Any moron realizes this.
The last time “peace in our time” was announced , a major war broke out soon after.
It seems to be slowly dawning on folks around here that Trump has made an awful mess in Iran. It’s really not that difficult to see.
Trump bet the farm that he would be able to achieve his objectives quickly and then leave. He lost. The military campaign failed to dislodge the regime. And Iran eliminated the “declare victory and go home” option when they successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz and Trump was either unwilling or unable to reopen it by force.
The “we have to wait and see how it turns out” cope has a shelf-life that is near expiration.
CC™-R returns to his one bleat -OMB.
Iran and The Twelvers with a nuke is so inconvenient to ignore but he does it every f-en time.
Because our little Ahab only knows The Great Orange Whale is in his head.
Tony Badran:
https://x.com/i/status/2066161564537745491
That’s rather good news. Well done, IDF!
The Strait of Hormuz is not actually closed. Iran can stomp their feet and say it is as long as they like, and legacy media can echo them and fool people who don’t do any digging, but Iran does not seem capable of actually closing the Strait.
I for one am going to wait and see how it turns out.
Years ago I read about a U.S. air-based internet broadcast facility. At the time it was in a C130 Hercules, I believe. Why isn’t this technology being used to bring internet access to the Iranian people?
Wrt certain strains of Islam, we need to return to Roman or pre-Roman times. Surrender and join the club, or be utterly destroyed. Think Carthage or Thebes under Alexander.
Bauxite:
You think Trump has made “an awful mess” in Iran. But you thought that from the start. I don’t see the commenters here agreeing with you for the most part. Here, people think he hasn’t gone far enough. I’ve certainly never written anything here that indicates i think iran is worse than before. I’ve written the opposite.
I for one am going to wait and see how it turns out.
Me too. I’m optimistic.
neo – I actually agree that he hasn’t gone far enough. And, no, I haven’t believed that the Iran was was a disaster from from the start. I assumed (incorrectly) that when the war started, that they had a plan to knock out the regime that would actually work, and a backup plan beyond bluster and months of playing economic chicken.
I could have been onboard with degrading their capabilities and then leaving, but the wildcard was Iran shutting the Strait. (And no, Niketas Choniates, the Strait is not open. It transited more than 20M barrels per day before the war.)
Once the Strait was closed, and Trump wasn’t willing or able to reopen it, it became apparent to me in late March that Trump had no intention of actually doing what it would take to knock out the regime or gain enough leverage to force significant concessions. (I.e., take Karg Island; reopen Hormuz by force, etc.)
It’s kind of like how the Mueller investigation made it apparent to me that the Russia collusion thing was a hoax. If someone is playing from a position of strength, you can have a pretty good idea of that from watching. If someone is trying to bluff and bluster their way through, you can have a pretty good idea of that too.
My overall take is do it right, or don’t do it at all.
Just let the IRI have their nukes already, eh?
Well, that seems pretty foolish.
@Bauxite:Niketas Choniates, the Strait is not open. It transited more than 20M barrels per day before the war.
Then what are these ships passing through it with 7M barrels per day and growing? Sounds like it’s at least 33% open.
The fact is that Iran is unable to target ships with their transponders off. Hundreds of ships have gone through, as everyone who’s paying attention slowly realizes that Iran cannot actually stop them.
What are you going to say if by next week it’s 14M and the week after that it’s 20M again?
Like I have to ask, you’ll be saying the same thing you’re saying now.
“leaving a gap of about 14 million barrels.”
I’m not following the accounting there.
Before: 20 mm bb
Now: 7 mm, + 5 mm rerouted, + 1 mm increased production elsewhere.
That would seem to be a gap of 6 mm, not 14 mm. Either way, to put it in perspective, world consumption of oil is estimated at 105 mm bb per day.
I often wonder could President Trump go all out with 1/2 of Congress and Senate against him.
bauxy the flailing flaming troll
IMHO, the thing to do is back the UAE in their claim to the islands in the Strait of Hormuz, for which we will give air and sea support, but they also have to take Kharg. They have over 40,000 men, which should be sufficient.
We’ve probably created another million or so people (Iranians) with the revenge fantasy of pulling off another 9/11 type event. Hopefully they confine their efforts to NYC.
Seems as though people generally don’t understand the changed circumstances of war under drone attacks. Things aren’t as simple as once they were.
The Great Orange Whale will forever swim in Bauxite’s (CC™-R)
little noggin.
Yeah, the Twelvers with nukes troubles CC™-R not at all.
Batemjo:
Gee, we’ve been hearing that argument for about 25 years, ever since we’ve done anything to fight terrorists since 9/11. Hasn’t happened that way.
The Iranian people hate their government. Their government has been screaming “Death to America!!” for 47 years.
But now Hamas is weaker, Hezbollah is weaker, Syria is improved at least, the Gulf countries are mostly with us on this.
Get some better talking points.
@Jimmy
The “gap” does not include the 7 million bbl now coming through the strait, it is the amount remaining that has to be shipped through the strait. The 7 million fills about half that gap.
“Let this book be dedicated to the chemists of the newer generation, who will not wish to reject all inferences from conjecture or surmise, but who will not care to speculate concerning that which may be surely known.”
from the dedication of Thermodynamics,
by Lewis, Randall, Pitzer and Brewer.
As to oil moving out through the Strait, based on the new oil routes, it would take about 65% of the oil transiting through the Strait to reach the 20 billion/day that was using the Strait pre-conflict. It’s enough that oil prices are back into the mid-$80 range.
As to not going far enough, no regime has been toppled by air power alone. That was the wild card. Mossad’s plan included using the Kurds as the pipeline of weapons into the country and to mount a northern insurgency. That plan was nixed by the President and was also vehemently opposed by the Persians.
Even had that continued, the Islamic regime had created a dispersed chain of command that would have made it costly. An insurgency could have taken Tehran (with US/Israeli air support), but that would have left the other 31 regions still under IRGC control, with a majority of the IRGC still intact.
What Trump is doing may cause a collapse of the regime from internal fighting. It appears on the surface that are at least two factions– those Trump is “negotiating” with and the rest that are continuing to skuttle any agreement.
Since this is just a temporary cease fire while the world watches football, hard to say what happens next.
Something like this happened: “The Deal with Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!” President Donald J. Trump
https://x.com/i/status/2066272391525802417
Complete post at link.
Via Benny Johnson in the Press Pool at the White House House, awaiting JD Vance and an Oval Office media scrum, as reported one hour ago: the official signing is scheduled for to take place in Switzerland next Friday. (Since Trump is to be at the G7 in France, it is possible he will attend.)
Oil has fallen to $77 a barrel. If it falls to $65, just $13 lower, this translates into $2 a gallon gas price in the US.
YT HEADLINE—“Trump Stuns World: Iran Peace Deal SIGNED, The War is OVER! Total Surrender From Iran, We WON.” Johnson uses video and X or Truth Social posts to validate these claims.
Trump thanks Qatar. And PM Shabaz Sharif of Pakistan echoes Trump on social media. A short 8m report on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRRqI_xGqwU
Trump Stuns World: Iran Peace Deal SIGNED, The War is OVER! Total Surrender From Iran, We WON”
Benny Johnson concludes with a look at oil tanker traffic in the Staits of Hormuz. The captains are antsy, if not yet completely courageous.
The event betting web site Polymarket has US x Iran Peace Deal by June 30 at a record high of 94%.
Just click on the graph just below peace deal headlines to get a fresh update on the bet, HERE https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-says-peace-deal-coming-sunday-tehran-signals-still-reviewing-text
Anyone have a vaccine for the latest troll who claims to be a virus?
Iran has been reduced from a powerful terror threat, a terrorist nation and an underwriter of other terror groups, from an international threat to a local nuisance. And the oil markets that they once held hostage have lost their preeminence.
Much will have to happen for this new picture to be fully painted in, but there are several concrete steps going forward that will build confidence – if they happen.
What Trump has done is to craft an expectation in the world view. Should Iran jeopardize this expectation, the loss of face will be theirs to own. I have hopes, but not high hopes. Let’s see the first few steps.
Fox News posted online minutes ago this 20m video report. HEADLINE “DEVELOPING: Trump orders end to US blockade, reopens Strait of Hormuz amid deal with Iran”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z59-t5XYgMo
Cyrus:
Call back when Timmy, your 12th Imam, comes out of his well.
Until then, the FO is waiting for your FA IRGC controllers.
This “deal” with the Iranian tyrants, the government that executed more than 20,000 of its citizens, is a very bad deal. Iran was on the ropes and was let off with a “time out” call. I will vote against anything that rotten-egg Trump proposes.
Cicero:
Time will tell, or do you have some secret Unicorn inside information?
Ask the Tribe if they think it’s a great victory.
https://x.com/SinaToossi/status/2066283755493290180
CICERO is definite and defiant, writing “I will vote against anything that rotten-egg Trump proposes.”
But the timing is excellent, because of fears that high oil prices would tip much of the rest of the world into recession — plus the autumn domestic election boost to come with lower gas costs to most people will happen. And inflation fears recede.
Thus, it’s propitiously well-timed.
Whatever happens, I too expect the Shi’ite driven maniacs in Iran to screw with us. Only what and when needs to be determined.
If Iran shirks from the agreement and repeatedly violates it, as I expect, then the world can look at Trump and see that he tried, but Iranians failed. (Again.)
Meantime, the US needs to restock munitions. Put certain ships back to Harbor for repairs and maintenance.
I believe Trump looks forward to smiting this evil rogue state in public. See ya in six months or so for a do-over, CICERO? Or a final knock out round?
Ask the Tribe if they think it’s a great victory.
Why should I care?
The angry elderly oncologist shouts at clouds.
Steve (Retired/recovering lawyer) on June 14, 2026 at 6:59 am:
So true! This is just another battle and temporary setback in the Islamist’s war against the West. They are fanatics and reason means nothing to them.
This will provide the West with a short breather. We must be as brave and ready to fight for survival as Israel is. When/if the Democrats get in power, will be a time of renewed danger.
Whew, typed with one eye tied behind my back. 🙁 But I’m still alive, so there’s that. 🙂
“The Tribe”
You mean a couple of ranters on telegram.
J.J. :
Great to hear from you!
Other authentic, indigenous, ancient cultures and traditions don’t think as we do nor should we expect them to. It would be colonizing oppression of the authentic, indigenous, ancient cultures.
Unless, of course, it would be useful for us if they actually did, in which case the IRGC and its brand of Islam would never break the treaty or agreement because it would make no sense. To think otherwise would be to insist they’re a bunch of nutcases and that would be insulting an ancient, indigenous, authentic culture.
The duration of this agreement is as long as Trump and then Vance are in office. And if the IRGC break the agreement and Trump takes them to task–whatever that looks like–then Trump’s starting another stupid, useless war against an innocent country.
This is nobody’s first rodeo. You could write the script in your sleep.
STIRRING! White House UFC Freedom 250 Opening Ceremony and President Trump’s Entrance – Full Video
https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2026/06/stirring-white-house-ufc-freedom-250.html
It sounds like a great deal and allows Trump to surrender relatively gracefully after a humiliating defeat. The US seemed to be out of ammunition and overmatched by the tactical advantage, advanced weaponry (including sophisticated naval speedboats), and sheer manpower the Iranian armed forces possess.
Obama has already been on the news saying something to the effect that this “deal” is no better than what Obama had with Iran. It feels like he worries his star is being tarnished.
pranticlaws: The US seemed to be out of ammunition and overmatched by the tactical advantage, advanced weaponry (including sophisticated naval speedboats), and sheer manpower the Iranian armed forces possess.
And, The Dick! Don’t forget the dead Ayatollah dick.
panticlaws forgot to use his sarcasm (sarc) flag on his comment. Or he/she/it/they/?? is a maroon.
Lassie isn’t coming to get Timmy, the twelfth iman out of that wholly well.
I’m thinking sarcasm om – “sophisticated naval speedboats” – but you never quite know with the trolls these days.
“Obama has already been on the news saying something to the effect that this “deal” is no better than what Obama had with Iran.”
The implication of that is that his deal sucked. We already knew that.
BHO finds out what the dustbin of history looks like, from the inside.
Obamacare, foreign affairs, racial harmony, gay and tranny madness. What a record.
Your daily Israel update:
https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/2066678891230773455