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A blog about political change, among other things

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In crisis there is opportunity, and the left wants to seize it

The New Neo Posted on March 17, 2020 by neoMarch 17, 2020

The left must see COVID-19 as a fabulous and fortuitous opportunity to accomplish a host of things they’ve been wishing for and hoping for.

They believe it will destroy Trump, hurt the economy, and convince people that big government and Democrats must take over. A fearful populace is a malleable populace, so fanning the flames of fear is good. And of course, elites know best – and nearly all elites are leftist these days.

I don’t think this virus was engineered and purposely released, as some people do. Whether it even escaped accidentally from a Chinese lab is very iffy. But whatever happened, the left is purposefully taking advantage of it.

And this may be as good a place as any to insert the following (hat tip: Ace).

Via Twitchy, Harmeet K. Dhillon uncorks a rant for the ages.

1/As a San Francisco resident and business owner, I’m wondering–can I trust the health judgments of leaders who let thousands live on the streets in their filth? And if we are now getting homeless into shelter, why couldn’t that have happened earlier? Doesn’t their health count?

2/ All of a sudden we are supposed to accept 24-hour curfews “for your own safety” from people who order the police to stand down when Antifa & friends beat the hell out of taxpayers; people who refuse to enforce laws they don’t like (death penalty, bail, property crimes) …/

3/ City leaders who literally give wanted alien criminals a public heads up when ICE is about to conduct raids are now telling me what’s best, declaring a death penalty for businesses, no hearings or due process?! Forgive me if I don’t fall right into line with the fascism …/

4/ which seems awfully situational. The Governor’s suggestions yesterday that older and vulnerable people take extra care and stay inside seemed reasonable. Liberal city leaders decided to seize the opportunity and throw the whole economy into a tailspin as collateral damage …/

5/ but don’t worry — we’ll soon have a government sponsored bailout for favored groups soon, funded with a tax increase crammed down the throats of the dwindling number of taxpayers. Homeless go back to the streets, illegal alien criminals get sanctuary, car break-one continue…

Posted in Disaster, Liberty, Politics | 61 Replies

It took me a while to get in gear today

The New Neo Posted on March 17, 2020 by neoMarch 17, 2020

There’s an awful lot of material to digest these days, and the sheer volume of it takes time.

I’m also feeling low – how about you? I try to fight it, but it’s a combination of worry about health, economics, and politics; anger at so much of what comes out of the MSM and the left; and cabin fever.

It’s not that I’m usually out partying, and that the new hunkering down has cramped my previous style. I’m usually considerably hunkered-down anyway. But I’m a social creature, and most of my social contacts are now on the telephone – partly my decision and partly the decision of those with whom I’d ordinarily have in-person contact.

And the indefinite timing of the whole thing is part of the angst. How long will this go on?

I try to shake my fear that the left – which considers this both an opportunity and a potential triumph – will be able to take full advantage of a tragic situation. It’s certainly doing its best.

I try to counsel patience for myself. This will shake out over a period of at least a few months. If I let myself be swayed by each day’s ups and downs – and downs – it won’t do me any good and it won’t necessarily even reflect what the result of these events will ultimately be.

How about you?

Posted in Me, myself, and I | 60 Replies

So here’s my question for all you epidemiologists and infectious disease experts out there –

The New Neo Posted on March 17, 2020 by neoMarch 17, 2020

Wouldn’t it be better to have only high-risk people stay home? People over 60 and those with pre-existing conditions? That way, if all those at low risk kept mingling, a lot of them would get a mild flu and herd immunity will be achieved fairly quickly, to the benefit of all, without overwhelming the health care system.

I’m not suggesting this as an actual policy right now, but I’m just wondering if my logic is flawed. I suppose the question is how long would it take for it to run its course and achieve sufficient herd immunity, and when would it be safe for us old folks to finally emerge. Also, would there be a lot of deaths among the younger ones in the meantime?

I just don’t see the end game for the current mitigation strategies. Wouldn’t we still get an overwhelmed health care system when everyone emerges? However, that doesn’t seem to be happening in China or South Korea at the moment, as far as I can tell – although I also don’t know whether many people have been allowed to “emerge” yet.

I was looking at a spate of recent articles on how Philadelphia and St. Louis handled the flu differently in 1918, with Philadelphia holding a big war bond parade despite the fact that the flu was beginning to make inroads in the city, and St. Louis canceling public gatherings (see this for just one example). The Philadelphia death rate soared and that of St. Louis did not.

However, most of the articles don’t mention this depressing fact:

According to a 2007 analysis of Spanish flu death records, the peak mortality rate in St. Louis was only one-eighth of Philadelphia’s death rate at its worst. That’s not to say that St. Louis survived the epidemic unharmed. Dehner says the midwestern city was hit particularly hard by the third wave of the Spanish flu which returned in the late winter and spring of 1919.

So, St. Louis did flatten its curve. But the deaths stretched out longer there.

And this apparently was a common occurrence in many cities:

If St. Louis had waited another week or two, they might have fared the same as Philadelphia, says the lead author on the first study, Richard Hatchett, M.D., an associate director for emergency preparedness at NIAID. Despite the fact that these cities had dramatically different outcomes early on, all the cities in the survey ultimately experienced significant epidemics because, in the absence of an effective vaccine, the virus continued to spread or recurred as cities relaxed their restrictions.

The second study also shows that the timing of when control measures were lifted played a major part. Cities that relaxed their restrictions after the peak of the pandemic passed often saw the re-emergence of infection and had to reintroduce restrictions, says Neil Ferguson, D.Phil., of Imperial College, London, the senior author on the second study. In their paper, Dr. Ferguson and his coauthor used mathematical models to reproduce the pattern of the 1918 pandemic in different cities. This allowed them to predict what would have happened if cities had changed the timing of interventions. In San Francisco, which they found to have the most effective measures, they estimate that deaths would have been 25 percent higher had city officials not implemented their interventions when they did. But had San Francisco left its controls in place continuously from September 1918 through May 1919, the analysis suggests, the city might have reduced deaths by more than 90 percent.

What was the effect of all this on the economy at the time? Here’s a pretty lengthy study. A summary:

Most of the evidence indicates that the economic effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic were short-term. Many businesses, especially those in the service and entertainment industries, suffered double-digit losses in revenue. Other businesses that specialized in health care products experienced an increase in revenues. Some academic research suggests that the 1918 influenza pandemic caused a shortage of labor that resulted in higher wages (at least temporarily) for workers…

Like today, there were a lot of mandatory closings and prohibitions in an attempt to blunt the effects of the disease. I can’t even begin to compare the extent of them, then and now (although I’ll probably do some more reading on the subject). But I do know that the 1918 flu pandemic killed a disproportionate number of people in the prime of life compared to what’s happening with COVID-19, and also killed a higher percentage of Americans in general, and so it stands to reason the economic effects would be maximized by those factors compared to the mortality trends with COVID-19.

Posted in Disaster, Health, History, Uncategorized | 44 Replies

Greater San Francisco shelters in place

The New Neo Posted on March 16, 2020 by neoMarch 16, 2020

Till April 7.

At least.

Going out without reason is a misdemeanor, although it is allowed for grocery shopping, taking walks (as long as you stay 6 feet away from other people), and a host of other purposes, and many businesses are allowed to stay open (restaurants, for example, as long as they just do takeout). I’m not sure exactly what this adds to what was already in place except the prospect of enforcement. Most things may have closed already. You can read all the details at the link.

I haven’t seen what San Francisco will do with all the homeless. Enforcing these rules for them should be very interesting. Or do they get a pass?

One good thing, though, is that San Francisco already has drive-in testing facilities newly set up. Once the city gets a bead on how many people are infected, perhaps some of this will be relaxed. Perhaps. Right now, there are “at least” 272 confirmed cases in the Bay area.

And yes, these development are extremely disturbing on many many levels.

These sorts of decisions will be a city-by-city thing – for now.

Posted in Health | Tagged COVID-19 | 56 Replies

The point of all those draconian rules: mitigation

The New Neo Posted on March 16, 2020 by neoMarch 16, 2020

The key to what’s going on now is containment and plus mitigation.

To understand, here’s Dr. Fauci – the infectious disease expert on the task force to deal with COVID-19 – talking about the goals of containment plus mitigation, as well as changes in the rules about testing. Containment (limiting the numbers initially and strict quarantines for the infected) was the goal of the travel restrictions and the initial treatment of victims, and mitigation (flattening the curve of growth) is the point of all the social distancing and handwashing and closings:

Comparisons of COVID-19 and H1N1-2009 are instructive, and it is true that the latter killed a lot of people without all this disruption and chaos and economic doom. It the end, H1N1 may even end up having killed more people, and younger people at that, as well as infecting more people than COVID-19, if these current containment and mitigation strategies are successful.

But the reason H1N1 didn’t engender all these closings despite how widespread it was (66 million Americans, although we didn’t understand that until later) and how very contagious, is that its death rate among the infected was actually quite low. The total number of deaths from H1N1 was fairly high (between 12K and 18K in the US), despite the low rate of death only because so very many people caught it.

The special problem with COVID-19 involves several things. The first is that at this point it appears both highly contagious and somewhat more lethal than H1N1 2009, and we don’t really know the figures. We do know that severe COVID cases flooded the hospitals when it hit China and is doing the same in Italy, so the potential for an overwhelmed health care system is there. The stark reality is that modern medicine can only do its thing if hospitals don’t have too many patients to treat at once. In the case of severe and critical COVID, respirators and ICU care are necessary, and those are not in endless supply.

Simply put, H1N1 did not overwhelm the health care system, even though in severe cases ICU care and respirators were also needed. The rate of severe disease among the infected was low enough that the curve of severe H1N1 disease seems to have been naturally flatter and more drawn out over time, so there was no need to flatten it though extreme mitigation strategies. Also – and I believe this is important – it hit in the US and in Mexico first, so we didn’t see any scary goings-on in other countries when we made our decisions as to how to react to H1N1.

There is something appaling about the specter of having thousands upon thousands of elderly (and some not-so-elderly) people dying because we don’t have enough room in our hospitals or enough special equipment or trained respiratory therapists to operate it. That’s different from the way people die from the flu, too, even though their numbers are high. They come in a more stable and steady stream in terms of numbers, even though there is seasonal fluctuation, and ordinarily we are able to give them all every benefit modern science can offer.

Is preventing the terrible prospect I just described with COVID-19 “worth” crashing the economy? Are we trying to control too much? But wasn’t the economy already sinking out of fear of COVID, anyway, because of what’s already happened in countries such as China and Italy? And what about all the closings? Will they even help in terms of mitigation? But weren’t most things closing down anyway, because of fear?

There’s a cascade of fear, and whether it comes from government recommendations, seeing and reading about Italy or China, MSM and leftist propaganda, or just basic human fear of the unknown, the idea is to put in place stops that will cause the curve of death to flatten and allow the health care system to do its job. That’s probably the only way things can calm down. Hopefully, it can happen soon, before too much damage is done.

And I would like someone in charge – a politician or Fauci or someone at the CDC or on the task force – to clearly explain how they think this will play out if things work out as planned. How many weeks will things be closed? Which policies are aimed at which goals? And when will we know we’ve achieved them?

Posted in Disaster, Health | Tagged COVID-19 | 43 Replies

Lies the MSM is telling

The New Neo Posted on March 16, 2020 by neoMarch 16, 2020

The lies of the press go on – and on and on. Rather than offer a long description here, I’m just going to link to two of Ace’s posts (this and this) on some of the more recent, destructive ones that have to do with the Trump administration and COVID-19.

These lies do damage to the public and to our country and even the world, and certainly to Trump. The press’s overriding goal of damaging Trump requires that the public be frightened and angry because they think he’s a dangerous and marauding incompetent who is unfortunately in charge during this crisis.

The press is neither stupid nor negligent in doing this. It is a purposeful, recurrent, well-thought-out approach of theirs, involving a highly practiced skill the press has developed which involves taking a kernel of truth and twisting it out of all recognition to convey the opposite impression.

One of the hallmarks of the technique is the truncated quote, but it’s by no means limited to it. Twitter is perfectly adapted for disseminating the lies to the reading public. The graph of the growth of the lie would probably look exponential for quite a while. Then on to the next lie, and the next.

One of those lies is that Joe Biden isn’t cognitively challenged at this point. Remember when the press mocked Trump for saying that he (Trump) could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and his supporters would still back him? Well, it’s the same with Biden and the MSM’s refusal to point out Emperor Biden’s lack of clothing. They will defend him no matter what he does or what he says, because he is the only candidate they have left. And they know that if he were president it would be okay because he would merely be a cooperative and malleable figurehead (or his VP would) for the Deep State and Usual Players, brought back for the next version of a movie in the Obama series: “Obama II: Leftward Ho.” COVID-19 is the useful crisis they cannot let go to waste.

Posted in Election 2020, Press, Trump | 19 Replies

COVID-19: We are all Lady Macbeth now

The New Neo Posted on March 16, 2020 by neoMarch 16, 2020

The COVID-19 handwashing recommendations lead to a rise in OCD symptoms and anxiety.

Makes perfect sense:

But for some people with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), to be warned they must scrub to protect themselves from an invisible enemy, and to do so in a ritualistic way with internal musical accompaniment, is akin to inviting a demon to come for tea. Some of these people have spent years trying not to wash their hands, often as a prescribed part of their treatment.

“It’s definitely put a lot of the internal OCD dialogue back into my life. It’s being reinforced by outside, authoritative voices,” says Erica (not her real name), a long-term OCD patient. “It’s a lot harder to tell yourself that the urge to wash your hands is irrational when everyone on your Twitter feed or on the news is saying: ‘Wash your hands. Nobody is washing their hands correctly.’”

The worsening outbreak affects people with OCD in other ways, too. Chiefly, the spike in anxiety about the virus can fuel existing obsessive fears of contamination and trigger destructive compulsive actions.

Posted in Uncategorized | 14 Replies

Did you know there was a debate tonight?

The New Neo Posted on March 16, 2020 by neoMarch 16, 2020

That’s alright. I forgot, too.

It was absolutely wretched. The many examples there of what transpired are truly disturbing, but I’ll just highlight a few for now:

In the span of 10 seconds, Joe Biden:

– Mixes up the #coronavirus with the swine flu

– Mistakenly calls the H1N1 virus (swine flu) the "N1H1"

– Forgets the name of the Ebola virus, calling it "what happened in Africa"#DemDebate pic.twitter.com/O5cKNBPZSH

— Trump War Room – Text TRUMP to 88022 (@TrumpWarRoom) March 16, 2020

Joe Biden would decimate American energy independence and destroy millions of jobs:

"No new fracking"

"Not another new coal plant"

"No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill. Period. Ends" pic.twitter.com/7ECql0cItQ

— America Rising (@AmericaRising) March 16, 2020

Posted in Election 2020 | 36 Replies

Gone are the days: assuming the risk

The New Neo Posted on March 14, 2020 by neoMarch 15, 2020

People used to take things in stride. I realize that by saying that, I sound like an old curmudgeon. But maybe I now understand better why old curmudgeons sound like old curmudgeons.

I grew up, as the somewhat-older author of this essay “Say Your Prayers and Take Your Chances: Remembering the 1957 Asian flu pandemic” did, in an era when nearly all children got a series of diseases that are now mostly distant memories. The vast majority of us survived quite nicely, unlike in previous eras:

Before the Modern Revolution child mortality was very high in all societies that we have knowledge of – a quarter of all children died in the first year of life, almost half died before reaching the end of puberty

Royalty was not immune; look at the record of the children of Peter the Great, for example. It’s horrific. It’s also one of many reasons people tried to have as many children as possible, although a lot of women died in childbirth or shortly after. Another terrible risk that was common in prior eras.

It was much much better when I was growing up. But still, in a few short years and while I was a toddler I had measles, mumps, German measles (is that racist?), and chicken pox, and that’s just what I remember. Polio was rather common, too, although a vaccine was developed when I was in grade school; I remember what a big big deal that was, and what a hero Salk was considered to be.

My only cousin had measles encephalitis when I was about two, and died a few years later of complications from it. I remember his death very very well, and his disabilities too. That’s the sort of thing that makes a deep impression on a child. My mother told me later that, when I had contracted measles not all that long after my cousin had them, she sweated it out because the risks were very clear to her. Another couple who were good friends of my parents had lost a child from measles even before I was born, and I heard about that periodically, too.

No one had to impress on me the seriousness of measles. I knew. And polio? We saw the photos of all those kids in the iron lungs, and we saw children walking around with braces on their legs.

But that personal knowledge is gone, along with those diseases and many others (for the most part, anyway, at least in this country; I’ve written about the anti-vax movement elsewhere and am not going to take it up now, but the lack of fear of certain diseases is partly responsible for the movement).

It’s a wonderful thing that the incidence of most of those diseases has been remarkably reduced. Wonderful, fabulous, a great reduction in human suffering. But there’s been a cost, too, and it’s the increasing fragility of our psyches’ ability to withstand and endure even the prospect of an increase in disease and mortality that mirrors what my generation experienced.

As Clark Whelton, the author of the City Journal essay I linked to earlier, writes:

It’s not that Asian flu—the second influenza pandemic of the twentieth century—wasn’t a serious disease. Worldwide, this flu strain killed somewhere between 1 and 2 million people. More than 100,000 died in the U.S. alone. And yet, to the best of my knowledge, governors did not call out the National Guard, and political panic-mongers did not blame it all on President Eisenhower. College sports events were not cancelled, planes and trains continued to run, and Americans did not regard one another with fear and suspicion, touching elbows instead of hands. We took the Asian flu in stride. We said our prayers and took our chances.

Today, I look back and wonder if an oblivious America faced the 1957 plague with a kind of clueless folly. Why weren’t we more active in fighting this contagion? Could stricter quarantine procedures have reduced the rate of infection and lowered the death toll? In short, why weren’t we more afraid?

His answer is that we were more used to infectious diseases. But a corollary of that is that we would have had to have closed down shop indefinitely. There were so many illnesses around all the time that there was no way to escape. You might say we were fatalistic, you might say we were resigned, you might say we were stupid, you might say we assumed the risk, or you might say we understood that the drawbacks of that sort of reaction were immense as well.

Of course, I wasn’t around in 1918. I wasn’t around when smallpox and tuberculosis or the Black Death killed far far more of the people on earth than any of the plagues of my lifetime have come close to killing. I cannot even imagine how terrible those things were; I don’t even want to imagine. And I doubt that people took them in stride at all. And I think a good part of the dread and fear now is that in the back of our minds – or for some people, even the front of our minds – we know that such catastrophes are still possible. Human beings know they are intensely vulnerable.

But COVID-19 is not shaping up to be that sort of event, and there’s no reason to think it will be. However, although many measures are prudent – handwashing, increased testing, hospital preparedness, some measure of social distancing at least for a while – the degree of fear I see and hear is far greater than anything I can recall in my lifetime around a medical event.

And it’s not just medical events, either. Students demand that colleges protect them from ever feeling bad or bullied or offended by anything anyone says. Woman have become so reactive to the idea of sexual harassment that many have redefined it to include what used to be considered standard compliments on appearance. People start bitter twitter wars about things like cultural appropriation. There seems to be a hair-trigger over-reactivity, a new emotional fragility and vulnerability, that is akin to what can happen when a person fails to develop normal immunities of the physical type, to use a medical analogy.

[NOTE: On a different but related topic, I also can readily recall when a president – any president of any party – would be cut slack by his critics during an emergency, particularly a medical one. Those days of near-reflexive pulling together are gone, long gone. Now it seems the chief focus of the Democrats’ reaction to this crisis is to criticize Trump and score political points. There are hopeful exceptions, though, and that’s why I cheered the reactions of governors Newsom of California and Cuomo of New York:

[From Newsom]: [Trump and I] had a private conversation, but he said, ‘We’re gonna do the right thing’ and ‘You have my support, all of our support, logistically and otherwise.’ He said everything I could have hoped for. And we had a very long conversation and every single thing he said, they followed through on.

Cuomo:

Gov. Andrew Cuomo on New York's drive-through coronavirus mobile testing center:

"I want to thank the Vice President and especially the President who facilitated this and moved quickly." pic.twitter.com/jEeCsA6WeF

— Francis Brennan (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@FrancisBrennan) March 13, 2020

This sort of thing used to be standard and expected. If a politician didn’t do it, people would have been critical of the omission. No more.]

Posted in Getting philosophical: life, love, the universe, Health, Me, myself, and I | 139 Replies

Why hoard toilet paper?

The New Neo Posted on March 14, 2020 by neoMarch 14, 2020

Hey, why not?

It lasts, if not forever, a long long time.

It’s pretty cheap – for now.

Doesn’t need refrigeration.

Never goes out of style.

One size fits all.

And no, people don’t think it protects them against disease – except in the sense that if they need to shelter in place for a long time, they might need quite a bit of tp and be unable or unwilling to go to the store to get it.

What’s more, the run on toilet paper (is that a pun?) increases the anxiety, and therefore there’s an increasing spiral of toilet paper buying due to the shortages.

Posted in Uncategorized | 56 Replies

Critical care beds: this may be part of what’s wrong in Italy

The New Neo Posted on March 14, 2020 by neoMarch 14, 2020

The number of critical care beds may be – critical.

A while back, while I was trying to figure out why the situation in Italy has gotten so bad, one thing I came across was the idea that Italy doesn’t have that many hospital beds. But when I researched that, I discovered that, although not a star, Italy wasn’t particularly deficient in that regard.

But today I found this, which seems relevant. It’s the number of critical care beds per 100K of population in various countries. When someone is hospitalized with serious respiratory distress related to COVID-19 – or H1N1, or regular pneumonia, or sepsis – ventilation and special care is often needed to save lives. So this may be the more important thing to look at.

The data is a bit old for all the countries, but not so very old. You can see that Italy has 12.5 critical care beds per 100K population. China has 3.6 and South Korea 10.6. The US does rather well on this particular metric: 34.7.

As far as Iran goes, who knows? I doubt the number is at all high.

The death rate for each disease is not some sort of fixed thing. When I wrote about the 1918 flu pandemic, for example, I discussed the wide variation in death rates among countries (India having been especially hard hit). Differences among the health care systems in different countries – even among Western countries, which are not peas in a pod – are relevant today, as well, and this is only one of them. With a severe case of something like COVID-19, time is of the essence and enough respirators and critical care are essential to save threatened lives. Without them, people who might otherwise survive will die.

That’s why all this emphasis is on “flattening the curve” of the growth of a disease in order not to overwhelm the system.

Posted in Health | 22 Replies

Trump declares national emergency at news conference; Dow rises

The New Neo Posted on March 13, 2020 by neoMarch 13, 2020

Here’s the news conference. I’ve queued it up for when Trump starts speaking:

It was long, it was comprehensive, and apparently it was reassuring.

I have only watched a little bit of it, but Trump seemed very knowledgeable and in charge, and the forces brought to bear on fighting this are impressive. He appeared “presidential,” which always hurt the left. That won’t stop a lot of people from trashing him, of course, but perhaps less effectively than before.

[NOTE: On the Dow rise and some press reaction.]

Posted in Uncategorized | 40 Replies

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