An autocratic state willing to be brutal can often withstand large anti-regime demonstrations by its people as long as (1) the demonstrations are not overwhelmingly large, and (2) the police and/or armed forces remain loyal to the government and willing to kill on its behalf.
Iran’s leaders are certainly willing to be brutal:
As many as 200 demonstrators have been killed so far and more than 4,000 arrested, dissident Iranian groups said. Besides police, the regime deployed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Shi’a Basij militia against unarmed protesters. Forces loyal to the regime were using live ammunition against unarmed demonstrators, several video footage show.
So far the loyal forces have remained loyal. But there’s also this:
There are signs that Tehran might be losing hold over the population, and finding it difficult to find loyal recruits to bolster the ranks of its armed forces. The regime has heavily depended on IRGC, a U.S.-designated terrorist group, to crush the uprising.
IRGC, one of the prime targets of the recent sanctions imposed by Washington, has stretched its manpower and assets by wading into conflicts in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The IRGC leadership is urging its women militia members to have higher birth rates and raise the next generation of jihadi recruits. An IRGC commander on Saturday told the women members of its Basij paramilitary force to have “at least five children.”
“The women’s Basij should be pioneers in this matter,” IRGC commander Ali Fadavi said. “We should have at least five children in the families of the IRGC and Basij members.” The Tehran regime needs “jihad makers, guards and defenders to maintain its existence, identity and investments,” he added.
However, it doesn’t sound to me as though the situation the IRGC faces is all that dire.
It’s instructive to look at the history of the 1979 Iranian Revolution to understand some of the dynamics that can occur. For example, there was an event known as “Black Friday,” in which troops fired on demonstrators who defied martial law that had been declared. After that:
The deaths shocked the country, and damaged any attempt at reconciliation between the Shah and the opposition. Khomeini immediately declared that “4,000 innocent protesters were massacred by Zionists”, and gave him a pretext to reject any further compromise with the government.
The Shah himself was horrified by the events of Black Friday, and harshly criticized the events, though this did little to sway public perception of him as being responsible for the shooting. While martial law officially remained in effect, the government decided not to break up any more demonstrations or strikes (in effect “martial law without there exactly being martial law”, according to Sharif-Emami), instead continuing to negotiate with protest leaders. Consequently, protest gatherings often took place without any serious intervention by soldiers.
In other words, after a brief foray into brutality, the government retreated and gave the demonstrators free reign. In addition, Khomeini was a shrewd and ruthless leader himself, who not only had millions of devoted followers but who knew how to exploit the less-ruthless nature of the Shah. The demonstrations grew very very large:
By late October, a nationwide general strike was declared, with workers in virtually all major industries walking off their jobs, most damagingly in the oil industry and the print media. Special “strike committees” were set up throughout major industries to organize and coordinate the activities.
The Shah did not attempt to crack down on strikers, but instead gave them generous wage increases, and allowed strikers who lived in government housing to remain in their homes
Not only that, but the Western media picked up on Khomeini and praised him, increasing his fame and support, another development that Khomeini cannily exploited.
Things reached a fever pitch [emphasis mine]:
Street demonstrations continued at full force with little response from the military; by late October, government officials effectively even ceded the University of Tehran to student protesters. Worse, the opposition was increasingly becoming armed with weapons, firing at soldiers and attacking banks and government buildings in an attempt to destabilize the country.
On 5 November, demonstrations at University of Tehran became deadly after a fight broke out with armed soldiers. Within hours, Tehran broke out into a full-scale riot. Block after block of Western symbols such as movie theaters and department stores, as well as government and police buildings, were seized, looted, and burned…
Many of the rioters were young teenage boys, often organized by the mosques in southern Tehran, and encouraged by their mullahs to attack and destroy western and secular symbols. The army and police, confused about their orders and under pressure from the Shah not to risk initiating violence, effectively gave up and did not intervene.
So in the case of the 1979 revolution, determined and well-organized rioters in huge numbers, led by a fanatical and brutal leadership, were fighting against a demoralized and confused police force led by a demoralized and confused monarch. Is it any wonder the revolutionaries succeeded?
Ultimately, the demonstrations became enormous, reported at nine million participants or ten percent of the population. The police and military were now overwhelmed not just by their own confusion but by sheer numbers:
The military leadership was increasingly paralyzed by indecision, and rank-and-file soldiers were demoralized, having been forced to confront demonstrators while prohibited from using their own weapons (and being condemned by the Shah if they did). Increasingly, Khomeini called on the soldiers of the armed forces to defect to the opposition. Revolutionaries gave flowers and civilian clothes to deserters, while threatening retribution to those who stayed. On 11 December, a dozen officers were shot dead by their own troops at Tehran’s Lavizan barracks. Fearing further mutinies, many soldiers were returned to their barracks. Mashhad (the second largest city in Iran) was abandoned to the protesters, and in many provincial towns demonstrators were effectively in control
You know how it all ended. But I don’t think it’s likely to end that way now, with victory by the protestors and the collapse of the regime. The government is much more determined to do what it takes to quell the disturbances than the Shah ever was, the number of demonstrators seems considerably smaller than in 1979, the rebels don’t seem to have a charismatic leader of Khomeini’s magnitude, and the IRGC’s problems don’t appear all that severe (although it’s very hard to tell).
The biggest problem the current Iranian government has at present, though, is economic. That’s the wild card that could make a difference. A key would be also be if the number of demonstrators grows extremely huge. And this time around, the demonstrations against Iran aren’t limited to that country, but extends to states where Iran has established a firm sphere of influence such as Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria:
…Iraqi, Lebanese and now Iranian Shia protesters…are tired of being instrumentalised and want a better life now not in some Khomeinist paradise.
Iran can impose its will now only by massive violence. That might still work for the moment. And the regime has revolution-proofed itself by the construction of an interlocking system of praetorian guards. But the community of true believers is shrinking. Just look at religious observance inside Iran. It’s collapsed. And any real moral authority that the revolution might once have had is gone.
“Syria was a massive turning point [says Sir John Jenkins, one of Britain’s longest-serving regional ambassadors]. Iraq is another now. And we’re beginning to see protesters talk to each other across national boundaries. It’s a process of erosion. The last true believers are probably those on the European left who think Iran is a bastion against US neo-liberal orientalist-inflected neo-colonialism. That says it all.
“Iran has become normalised – just another repressive Middle Eastern state ruled by greedy self-serving elites…
Interesting times, interesting times.
