Well, it could just be poor statistics-taking and reporting. But apparently the death rate has not gone up, either, and a rise in that would be more noticeable. So it seems the low rate of (and/or better prognosis from) COVID in much of Africa is real.
Could it be, could it possibly be – the widespread use of hydroxychloroquine?
You’d never know from this article that such a thing is even a possibility. The Science article discusses the data from Africa – it’s even titled “The pandemic appears to have spared Africa so far. Scientists are struggling to explain why” – but nary a whisper about the drug.
Is the drug already widely taken in African countries where malaria is endemic? I’ve been trying to discover whether that is the case, and I’m hesitant to say it is because I read somewhere, months ago, that malaria in Africa became resistant to the drug some years ago and so it’s no longer all that widely used there. I can’t seem to find that information at the moment.
However, hydroxychloroquine and possibly its predecessor chloroquine certainly have been used in Africa for COVID. In fact, some countries in Africa using it for that purpose did not stop doing so even when the bogus Lancet article came out, unlike most of Europe. Perhaps that happened because in Africa they are very familiar with the drug and its risks and/or lack of risk. Also, they’re probably not so heavily invested in the business of discrediting Trump at all costs. At any rate, several made a bold decision to keep going with the drug (see also this).
There is also this practice (the article is from early April):
Despite loud appeals for caution, Africans are rushing to embrace chloroquine, the venerable anti-malaria drug touted as a possible treatment for coronavirus.
From hospitals in Senegal to pharmaceutical companies in South Africa and street sellers in Cameroon, chloroquine has fired hopes of a medicinal fix against a virus that is set to scythe through Africa’s poorly protected countries.
Chloroquine and derivatives such as hydroxychloroquine have been used for decades as cheap and safe drugs against malaria, although their effectiveness in this field is now undermined by growing parasite resistance…
…in many settings across Africa, chloroquine has been placed in the front line against coronavirus.
Its rise stems partly from desperation, given Africa’s meager capacity to deal with a pandemic on the scale seen in Europe or the United States.
Burkina Faso, Cameroon and South Africa have swiftly authorized hospitals to treat virus patients with the drugs.
Around half of infected people in Senegal are already being prescribed hydroxychloroquine, Moussa Seydi, a professor at Dakar’s Fann Hospital, told AFP last Thursday.
Every patient who was recommended the drug accepted it, “with no exceptions,” he said.
In Democratic Republic of Congo, President Felix Tshisekedi last week declared it was “urgent” to produce chloroquine “in industrial quantities”.
My guess is that their long experience with the drug makes both the medical establishment and the population unafraid of it. There is also a black market:
“Local people have been buying it, apparently without prescription, which is dangerous.”
…Alice Desclaux, a doctor at the Institute of Development Research (IRD) in Senegal, said the risks from self-medication from chloroquine were largely rooted in illegal sales.
“Chloroquine has always been on sale informally in Africa,” she said.
“It’s still used to cause abortions” and even for attempted suicide, Desclaux said.
In one backstreet pharmacy in Douala, Cameroon’s economic hub, the manager said he had run out of stock. For anyone who wished to order some, “careful, the price has gone up,” he said…
The chloroquine craze is not just affecting the black market for drugs — it is also spurring the production of counterfeit medications.
The whole article is worth reading, although it’s from an early point in the pandemic. It could explain a lot.
And this is from an article written in June:
In Senegal and Madagascar for example, COVID-19 patients on hydroxychloroquine and the herbal remedy Artemisia annua have been observed to recover faster from the disease with lower deaths. In both countries, even with rising cases, recovery rates from Covid19 are much higher – consistent with the observations in most malaria prone countries. Interestingly, malaria is not prevalent in Africa’s Covid-19 hotspots of South Africa and North Africa.
Fascinating, I think.

