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A blog about political change, among other things

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Voters now prefer Biden??

The New Neo Posted on February 14, 2026 by neoFebruary 14, 2026

I don’t want to be a downer – especially on Valentine’s Day – but what on earth is this about?:

Harvard CAPS/Harris (Jan. 28–29): Mark Penn’s polling firm found that 51% of registered voters say Trump is doing a worse job than Biden, compared with 49% who say he’s doing better.

Rasmussen Reports (Feb. 2–4): The Trump-friendly pollster is fending off MAGA criticism after finding that 48% of likely voters say Biden did a better job as president, compared with 40% who chose Trump. Another 8% said the two presidents have performed “about the same.”

YouGov/Economist (Feb. 6–9): This survey found that 46% of U.S. adults say Trump is doing a worse job than Biden, compared with 40% who say he’s doing better. Another 7% said “about the same.”

I would ignore the polls except for the inclusion of Rasmussen, usually quite accurate and also usually quite fair to the right.

More:

That first result represents an 18-point swing since the same poll was taken last February and 58 percent said Trump was doing a better job than Biden, versus 40 percent who said Biden was better.

It’s one thing to hate Trump, but that sort of swing doesn’t represent NeverTrumpers, who tend to be a stable Trump-hating group. What it does represent I’m not sure. The comments to the article are not especially helpful on that score either – I read quite a few and then gave up because they were the usual reflexive ha-ha-ha MAGA-bashing junk.

What do I think this is about? My guess is that those who prefer Biden are a combination of the following: Democrats who’ve always hated Trump and always will, plus Independents who’ve been swayed by all the negative coverage (especially of ICE), some Tucker-type Republicans who think Trump doesn’t hate Jews enough and isn’t isolationist enough, plus independents and people on the right who are angry that Trump hasn’t just snapped his fingers and made the economy well-nigh perfect overnight. In addition, I think many people have very short memories.

It’s depressing, though. And yes, I think at least some of it is real. That doesn’t mean it’s set in stone, but it’s worrisome.

Posted in Biden, Trump | 64 Replies

Update on the SAVE Act in the Senate

The New Neo Posted on February 14, 2026 by neoFebruary 14, 2026

Susan Collins of Maine says she supports the bill with its voting security safeguards, bringing the total probable Senate votes up to 50, with Vance able to act as a tie-breaking vote for the act if – and it’s quite an “if” – there’s enough GOP support for the so-called nuclear option to pass it.

And Collins doesn’t support the nuclear option. Catch-22.

Nor is she the only GOP member who doesn’t support the nuclear option (something similar happened to the Democrats at the hands of Manchin and Sinema during the Biden administration, when they tried to pass a national voting act that reduced voting security and the two senators wouldn’t support the nuclear option to pass it).

Is there a work-around to save SAVE? Maybe:

Lee and other conservatives believe that if they turn to the standing filibuster, rather than the “zombie filibuster,” they can barrel through Democratic resistance.

But some fear that turning to that tool could paralyze the Senate floor for weeks or even months, depending on Senate Democrats’ resolve.

Because most people think the Democrats will win control of at least the House in 2026, time is of the essence.

Posted in Election 2026, Law, Politics | 13 Replies

Happy Funny Valentine’s Day

The New Neo Posted on February 14, 2026 by neoFebruary 14, 2026

Four sterling singers.

[NOTE: This is a repeat of a previous post.]

Posted in Music | 10 Replies

Open thread 2/14/2026

The New Neo Posted on February 14, 2026 by neoFebruary 14, 2026

Posted in Uncategorized | 16 Replies

Friday the 13th roundup

The New Neo Posted on February 13, 2026 by neoFebruary 13, 2026

(1) It’s Friday the 13th. Make of that what you will.

(2) The US ice dancing skaters were probably robbed of a gold by a French judge showing favoritism to the French ice dancing pair:

Still, it doesn’t seem like they have much of a chance at a reversal, despite the outcry regarding the questionable scoring by a French judge, Jezabel Dabouis, who favored the winning pair from France by a wide margin, while the other judges gave the two pairs much closer scores.

So, what else is new? Isn’t this sort of thing an old old story in a sport like ice dancing or ice skating in general?

(3) California’s a beautiful state. But not that beautiful; Mark Zuckerberg is planning a move to Miami to avoid the “billionaire tax.” See this:

With Zuck’s move to Florida, California’s total taxable wealth from billionaires has plummeted to well under $1T from over $2T just a few weeks ago. The loss of this tax revenue was totally avoidable but is now forever. All because Gavin Newsom stood motionless as this stupidly written bill, from a fringe union and a handful of socialist academics with an axe to grind, meandered its way into the public conversation without any action from him and freaked everyone out. These were all people that were paying 13%+ in state income tax every year WITH NO COMPLAINTS UNTIL A FEW WEEKS AGO.

(4) Virginia’s extreme pro-Democrat gerrymandering moves forward:

Republicans had argued that the referendum should be paused following a lower court ruling that found Democrats had “failed to follow their own rules for adding the redistricting amendment to a special session; failed to approve the amendment before the public began voting in last year’s general election; and failed to publish the amendment three months before the election, as required by law.”

Nevertheless, Virginia’s Supreme Court is letting it go forward, and says they may rule on it after the referendum is voted on.

(5) In no surprise whatsoever, US talks with Iran have stalled:

… President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, had a series of talks with Iranians in Oman. The talks failed to end the deadlock, with the Iranian top negotiator and Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, threatening to attack U.S. military bases in the Middle East shortly after the meeting.

So now Trump’s sending another carrier to the area. Bluff, or not?

It is worth noting that during Operation Midnight Hammer last June, when the U.S. struck key Iranian nuclear weapons facilities, two aircraft carriers were deployed in the region.

Posted in Uncategorized | 25 Replies

What’s going on in the New Mexico Senate race?

The New Neo Posted on February 13, 2026 by neoFebruary 13, 2026

In the last decade or two, New Mexico has become a blue state. Thus, one might imagine that potential GOP candidates there don’t have a lot of enthusiasm about running for office. But usually the party has managed to field candidates. However, now they won’t have one in the 2026 Senate race; here’s the story:

If he rebuffs a primary chal­lenge, U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján is set to avoid a Repub­lican oppon­ent in his bid for a second term, after a poten­tial GOP oppon­ent was dis­qual­i­fied Tues­day for fail­ing to meet bal­lot require­ments.

The dis­qual­i­fic­a­tion of Repub­lican can­did­ate Chris­topher Vanden Heuvel of Rio Ran­cho means that for the first time in mod­ern state his­tory the state’s gen­eral elec­tion bal­lot for a U.S. Sen­ate race will have only one major party can­did­ate.

In all, Sec­ret­ary of State Mag­gie Toulouse Oliver ruled four can­did­ates did not turn in enough qual­i­fied voter sig­na­tures to appear on the June primary elec­tion bal­lot.

In addi­tion to Vanden Heuvel, other dis­qual­i­fied can­did­ates include Repub­lican Carlton Pen­ning­ton of Mori­arty in the 1st Con­gres­sional Dis­trict race and Repub­lican gubernat­orial hope­ful Belinda Robertson of Las Cruces.

In addi­tion, U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez, D-N.M., will avoid a primary elec­tion chal­lenge from fel­low Demo­crat Thomas Wakely of Colum­bus after Wakely was dis­qual­i­fied from the bal­lot. Vasquez would face the win­ner of a GOP primary con­test between Gregory Cun­ning­ham of Las Cruces and Jose Orozco of Albuquerque in the Novem­ber gen­eral elec­tion.

So, the fourth disqualification was of a Democrat, but that Democrat was opposing an incumbent Democrat member of the House of Representatives, who will be facing the winner of the GOP primary. The other three candidates who were disqualified seem to include every single Republican who was running for the Senate.

I noticed in some comments on sites on the right that there’s a lot of railing against the stupidity and loser-mentality of the GOP. But, although I read quite a few articles on what happened, I have yet to learn answers to the following relevant questions:

(1) Did the GOP candidates for the Senate simply fail to get enough signatures, period?
(2) Or did they get enough but some signatures were disqualified, enough to bump them off the ballot? And if so, how many?
(3) On what were the disqualifications based? Valid or not?

I could find no numbers or details on what happened and no answers to these questions. But where the blame should fall depends on those answers, I think.

The last Republican to win a statewide office in New Mexico was a judge, in 2016.

The present Republican candidate for governor is also facing a court challenge about residency. And the Secretary of State is, of course, a Democrat.

If you have more details that might answer my questions, please let us know in the comments.

[NOTE: And yes, disqualifying the opposition on the basis of signature flaws was a favorite ploy of Obama in his early years. See this.]

Posted in Election 2026 | 14 Replies

Open thread 2/13/2025

The New Neo Posted on February 13, 2026 by neoFebruary 13, 2026

Posted in Uncategorized | 22 Replies

The Senate GOP and the SAVE Act

The New Neo Posted on February 12, 2026 by neoFebruary 12, 2026

I’ve seen a lot of posts and comments around the internet expressing frustration with the GOP in the Senate for not yet passing the SAVE Act. It’s so important, according to just about everyone. It would codify as a federal matter many voting safeguards, such as IDs/proof of citizenship.

I agree that it’s important, and it would be wonderful if it were passed – although as soon as Democrats came to power they’d probably pass HR1, its mirror-image opposite.

And is it worthwhile to nuke the filibuster to pass the SAVE Act? Probably, many say. Plus, there’s little doubt the Democrats would end the filibuster – and will do it if they control the Senate – in order to finally pass HR1 after so many tries.

So, what’s the problem? Why not do it? Isn’t it just the usual stupidity, cowardice, and mendacity of the Republicans in the Senate (including of course McConnell and Murkowski), holding it back?

The Ruthless guys beg to differ. They’re very smart cookies, so it’s worth a listen. The clip is about 20 minutes long, but very informative and different from what you’ll hear elsewhere:

Posted in Election 2026, Election 2028, Law, Politics | 26 Replies

Today is Lincoln’s birthday

The New Neo Posted on February 12, 2026 by neoFebruary 12, 2026

[NOTE: This is a slightly-edited version of a previous post.]

His actual birthday, that is.

When I was a child, Lincoln had a birthday all his own. Nowadays he’s lumped in with other presidents. And who knows where he’ll be in the future?

When I was a child, Lincoln also fascinated me more than any other president. One reason was a superficial one: he was just about the strangest-looking president ever (see this). Another was his eloquence, and a third was his sense of humor.

Which brings us to a series of Lincoln quotes. This first one seems especially apropos today:

America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.

More:

Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren’t very new after all.

Whenever I hear anyone arguing for slavery, I feel a strong impulse to see it tried on him personally.

It’s not me who can’t keep a secret. It’s the people I tell that can’t.

I hope this prediction is correct:

We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained, it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory will swell when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.

And of course, one of the most famous:

If you once forfeit the confidence of your fellow citizens, you can never regain their respect and esteem. It is true that you may fool all of the people some of the time; you can even fool some of the people all of the time; but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.

Posted in Historical figures | 31 Replies

This is how the media writes propaganda: about deportations or anything else

The New Neo Posted on February 12, 2026 by neoFebruary 12, 2026

A textbook example is from CBS. In particular, the headline is misleading. There’s no question in my mind that this is purposely so, and perhaps the most important part of the game. The headline is often either the only thing people read, or the headline and the first paragraph or two, and articles are shaped by people who are well aware of that. Even if a person does read the whole thing, the headline tends to shape that person’s perceptions.

The headline of this particular article is, “Less than 14% of those arrested by ICE in Trump’s 1st year back in office had violent criminal records, document shows.” Wow, the reader is meant to think, I guess the right is lying when it says the focus right now is on criminals. How many people read articles with such a jaundiced eye that they’re aware of the trap there, the words “violent criminal records” and especially the definition of the word “violent”? Most of those who do read the headline with skepticism are probably not going to be Democrat voters and/or Trump haters, because of the phenomenon of confirmation bias.

I read all articles with skepticism, but that’s only because I have to write about them and need to try my best to get it right, and have learned over and over and over again how much of what we read is propaganda. It happens on both left and right, but more often on the left, and of course most of the MSM is on the left.

That’s why I immediately realized the key word there was “violent.”

Let’s get to the article. The first three paragraphs – again, that would be all most people would read – set up the premise that Trump and company are lying:

Less than 14% of nearly 400,000 immigrants arrested by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in President Trump’s first year back in the White House had charges or convictions for violent criminal offenses, according to an internal Department of Homeland Security document obtained by CBS News.

The official statistics contained in the DHS document, which had not been previously reported publicly, provide the most detailed look yet into who ICE has arrested during the Trump administration’s far-reaching deportation operations across the U.S.

The internal DHS figures undermine frequent assertions by the Trump administration that its crackdown on illegal immigration is primarily targeting dangerous and violent criminals living in the U.S. illegally, people Mr. Trump and his lieutenants have regularly called the “worst of the worst.”

It’s only in paragraph four that the reader might get a whiff of what’s going on, and by then a lot of people have either dropped out or have made up their minds that Trump has been lying:

Nearly 60% of ICE arrestees over the past year had criminal charges or convictions, the document indicates. But among that population, the majority of the criminal charges or convictions are not for violent crimes.

But Trump et al never said they were all murderers or rapists, just that many were and that most (not all) have some sort of criminal past. The article goes on; you can read it for yourself. It isn’t till paragraph 9 that you can read this:

Tricia McLaughlin, a DHS spokesperson, said in a statement after this story was published that “Drug trafficking, Distribution of child pornography, burglary, fraud, DUI, embezzlement, solicitation of a minor, human smuggling are all categorized as ‘nonviolent crimes.'”

I don’t think anyone got the idea that all the deportees are murderers or rapists. But those who’ve committed the above crimes are people most citizens don’t want here and would be in favor of deporting.

When you look at the actual figures, it becomes even more clear:

The figures below illustrate the categories of criminal charges or convictions among the individuals arrested by ICE between Jan. 21, 2025 and Jan. 31, 2026 who had criminal records. The DHS document says it listed the most serious charges or convictions at the time of arrest.
All Other
117,987
Assault
42,847
DWI / DUI
29,929
Dangerous Drugs
22,555
Weapons Offenses
6,146
Sexual Assault
5,365
Burglary
5,053
Robbery
2,725
Homicide
2,107
Kidnapping
1,116
Arson
346

The document also says ICE arrested 22,600 individuals with charges or convictions involving dangerous drugs, while another 6,100 had weapons offenses on their records. Nearly 30,000 of those arrested by ICE had been charged with or convicted with driving while under influence or intoxicated. Another 5,000 arrestees had burglary charges or convictions.

The document says another 118,000 detainees had criminal charges or convictions for “other” crimes. Those could include immigration-related crimes, like entering the U.S. illegally, a misdemeanor for the first-time offense, or re-entering the country after being deported, a felony.

A lovely bunch of “neighbors.”

Often news is reported and the slant is what’s left out. This article is typical of a different and not-uncommon approach, which is to report more or less correctly but towards the latter part of an article, after the propaganda message has been driven home.

I said the article is more or less correct, but as far as I can see it does leave something out, which is the fact that some of the deportees have criminal convictions at home but not in the US.

The CBS article also reports the following, which is almost certainly a result of slanted coverage like this or worse:

A CBS News poll last month found that Americans’ support for Mr. Trump’s deportation efforts had fallen to 46%, down from 59% at the start of his second term.

Bravo, CBS. Mission accomplished!

NOTE: It turns out that one of those people with criminal convictions at home but not here is a person I wrote about two days ago, Irish national Seamus Culleton, who overstayed a visa for about two decades and has been complaining about his detention as a “concentration camp” and yet refuses to go back to Ireland although that’s been offered. Well, guess what? Turns out he’s wanted in Ireland on various charges:

McLaughlin said that he was offered the chance to be “instantly removed to Ireland” but that he “chose to stay in ICE custody” and took steps to “remain in detention”.

She said that being in detention “is a choice” and that the department encourages people in this position to “take control of their departure”.

McLaughlin added that the US is offering “illegal aliens” $2,600 (€2,000) and a free flight to self-deport.

It comes amid confirmation that Culleton had a number of charges against him before he left Ireland in 2009.

The Journal has established, via multiple sources familiar with his interactions with gardaí, that Culleton had a number of interactions with the justice system in Ireland before he moved to the US.

One incident involved the alleged possession for sale or supply of MDMA (ecstasy) and an attempt to get rid of the drugs when being searched by gardaí in 2008.

Culleton was charged with obstruction but did not appear in court and a bench warrant was issued for his arrest in April 2009, after he had moved to the US. …

On another occasion, Culleton was arrested for his own safety while drunk in Glenmore in 2007.

Separately, another bench warrant was issued for Culleton’s arrest after he failed to appear in court when facing criminal damage charges in September 2007.

Speaking during a press conference yesterday, Culleton’s lawyer, Ogor Winnie Okoye, who is representing him in his fight to be released from detention, said she had not heard about her client’s charges until this week.

“This is the first time that we’re hearing about that,” Okoye said yesterday. “I can’t speak to a warrant.

“Mr Culleton will not be aware of any warrant that happened after he came to the United States.

“A warrant is not a conviction, a warrant is not a criminal entry, so I will leave it at that until I understand the specific facts of the case.”

So he apparently failed to tell his lawyer about those warrants – at least some of which (and perhaps all of which) occurred before he came to the US and are probably why he left Ireland as well as why he doesn’t want to return. Fancy that.

Posted in Immigration, Law, Press | 9 Replies

Open thread 2/12/2026

The New Neo Posted on February 12, 2026 by neoFebruary 12, 2026

Posted in Uncategorized | 11 Replies

DC grand jury refuses to indict Democrat legislators who advised military members to disobey orders

The New Neo Posted on February 11, 2026 by neoFebruary 11, 2026

Here’s the story:

A Washington, DC, grand jury refused to indict Democratic lawmakers who made a video urging military and intelligence agency members to disobey illegal orders, according to numerous outlets.

The government and courts did not reveal the charges or which members were named in the indictment.

Please read the whole thing.

This was one of those judgment calls in terms of whether the accused are actually guilty of seditious conspiracy. But I think it was madness to think a DC grand jury would ever indict them. Pick your battles. This result was a gimme to the left, which can self-righteously claim persecution and vindication.

On the other hand, I think it is highly likely that if the facts were all the same but it was Republicans who had made the statements, and Republicans facing a DC grand jury, they would have been indicted and then probably convicted.

[NOTE: Kelly may fall under military jurisdiction, but the others do not.]

Posted in Law, Military | 19 Replies

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