Remember Chechnya? A country torn by a separatist war, terrorism, a Russian crackdown? A truly hopeless cause?
Well, guess what? When you weren’t looking, peace—albeit of a very troubled sort—came to that very troubled land.
Make no mistake about it; Chechnya has not turned into paradise. But the city of Grozny, a ruin just two short years ago, is being rebuilt. The Russians have cracked down on a Chechnya that supposedly could not be pacified, and have installed a tough man to control those who would oppose them.
MIght the cure be worse than the disease? This is a harsh place where harsh remedies have been installed. New leader Ramzan A. Mr. Kadyrov illustrates a phenomenon I wrote about here, which is that, in countries in which civil order has broken down, the choice often seems to be between two dreadful alternatives, anarchy or tyranny.
We are trying to implement another type of solution in Iraq right now: to tame the anarchy without substituting another tyranny. It is difficult and requires money, troops, commitment, will, staying power, and perhaps a touch of brilliance (which General Petraeus is attempting to provide).
But, short of that, it seems that tyranny will do in Chechnya.
The NY Times describes the paradox of Chechnya thusly:
Kadyrov’s human rights record is chilling, and allegations of his government’s patterns of brutality and impunity are widespread. Yet even his most severe critics say he has developed significant popular support, in part because of the clear changes that have accompanied his firm and fearsome rule.
The fighting is only sporadic now in a country that had, just two years ago, seemed unfixable, the violence unstoppable. The Russians had cracked down on Chechnya time and again to no avail. But now resident Zulika Aliyeva says, “I compare how we used to live, and it is like we are in a fairy tale now.”
Kadyrov’s program has featured “a two-stage formula: extraordinary violence, followed by extraordinary investment.” The violence has, paradoxically, created enough order that Kadyrov has been able to reconstruct much of the city, and attract more people to come and live there again. There’s even a fledgling effort at a tourist industry.
It sounds as though Chechnya was a nightmare before, and now it’s a different sort of nightmare. Law and order has begun to return, but at a great price.
One of the most interesting aspects of this chain of events is the fact that no one seems to have predicted it; the pundits were taken by surprise, as they often are.
[ADDENDUM: Kim Zigfield thinks the Times is far too kind to the Kadyrov regime.]

