Michael Totten on Putin’s motives

The New Neo Posted on by

This seems reasonable to me:

Putin has a strategy. And it’s working.

What he most fears is that Ukraine might join NATO, removing yet another buffer state between himself and the West and kiboshing his plans for the Eurasian Union, a euphemism for a 21st century Russian empire. (Does anyone seriously believe Kazakhstan will be an equal partner with Moscow?)

Keeping his former Ukrainian vassal out of NATO will be easy now even if a militant anti-Russian firebrand comes to power in Kiev. The Crimean referendum””whether it was free and fair or rigged is no matter””creates a disputed territory conflict that will never be resolved in Ukraine’s favor. It will freeze and fester indefinitely. There isn’t a chance that NATO would accept a member that has a disputed territory conflict with Russia. No chance at all. Ukraine is as isolated as it could possibly be from the West without getting re-absorbed into Russia entirely.

Putin did the same thing to Georgia in 2008 when he lopped off the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and he did it for the same reason.

A similar dynamic fell into his lap in Moldova, the poor and battered country east of Romania. The far eastern Slavic region of (Latin) Moldova declared independence after the Soviet period and calls itself Transnistria.

The world does not recognize the existence of a state called Transnistria, which is perhaps just as well. It’s still basically Soviet. The hammer and sickle are right there on the flag. Its first president, Igor Smirnov, groomed himself into a dead-ringer for Vladimir Lenin.

Putin couldn’t care less about what happens in Transnistria, but he keeps Russian troops there because they ensure Moldova stays out of NATO.

That’s not one, not two, but three times Russia has pulled this stunt since the end of the Cold War. Putin is doing it to Ukraine because it worked in Moldova and Georgia.

Does the White House get news conference questions in advance?

The New Neo Posted on by

Maybe, although Carney has denied it.

It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if it happened. And Carney’s disclaimer is more or less irrelevant; he has no credibility left. However, it hardly matters if they get the questions ahead or not, because the MSM is so in league with this administration that the White House pretty much knows that it’s not going to really be challenged, either with difficult questions or with follow-ups to the answers it provides. The press is almost wholly under the administration’s thumb anyway.

So in essence, as a leading light of the Democratic Party would say, “What difference at this point does it make” whether they get the answers in advance or not? It would be merely a slight intensification of something we already know to be true.

Blah-blah-blahing about the unidentified debris in the southern Indian Ocean

The New Neo Posted on by

When I turned off my computer late last night, it was only a fairly short while after the Australians had announced they were speeding to look at some debris located by satellite many many miles off their southwestern coast (and I had written about it). It was clear it would take a long time for search planes to arrive, and probably much much longer to locate the debris, if they ever did.

Understandably, the cable news networks were talking about it nonstop when I went to bed, and much of what they were saying was already repetitive: speculation, facts about how debris floats, the weather in the area, and repeats of many of the things we’ve already heard about Flight 370 and its history.

Today there is no new news of any import whatsoever. This is hardly unexpected, of course. But the coverage continues in exactly the same course, and appears to have gone on this way without a pause. I cannot imagine that much has been said in all that time that’s worth saying more than once.

Why has this news been fastened on, without new content? Obviously interest in the plane is high, but it still doesn’t explain the nonstop coverage of what is essentially only a possibility of a discovery at this point. Some people speculate it’s some sort of cover so we don’t attend to other news, and while that’s certainly possible, that’s not my leading theory. My leading theory is that mysteries and disasters sell, and that this is a story about a mystery within a disaster.

Much of the other news of the day—be it Obamacare (a particular obsession of mine), the Crimea takeover and Putin’s anschluss-type designs on other former Soviet satellites, Iran and its nuclear ambitions, or any other of several large stories both worldwide and domestic, are undoubtedly bigger and more important in any objective sense. But once they are covered they are covered, until something new happens. Each news outlet (all of them liberal except Fox) covers each story with whatever spin they have decided best serves its cause: Obamacare not so bad, Putin not so powerful (and Romney’s warnings unmentioned), Iran not so evil, and on and on and on in that vein. All very predictable in terms of the story and the angle of approach for the MSM, at least until the next event, which will be incorporated into the story with the same slant.

The Flight 370 saga is different. It’s a true mystery, at least so far. It’s international in scope. It’s less political, at least so far. Although it directly affects fewer than 300 people and their families, that’s a lot of people and we all can identify because nearly all of us fly in planes. That, and its aspect of Twilight-Zoneish unknown, grab people in a very different, and very visceral, way compared to a news story of the more conventional type.

So I understand intense coverage of the event and its aftermath; after all, I’ve done it myself, and plan to update as there is breaking news. But still, the last fourteen hours or so have been so over-the-top on this one possibility that it seems odd, to say the least. The cable news networks do this, though; they fasten on a story (often a disaster of some sort) and don’t let go of it. Then when it’s over, it’s over. My guess is that their market research tells them this drives ratings.

Pieces of Flight 370 found?

The New Neo Posted on by

I just turned on the TV as some of the cable news networks were engaged in hyping the fact that Australia has announced that satellites have imaged two pieces of debris in the southern Indian Ocean that might be from the disappeared flight. They are sending planes there to take a more extensive look.

This could be another incident like the Chinese satellite images that turned out to be nothing. On the other hand, this announcement was made by the Australian prime minister Tony Abbott. So it seems that something more may be up, or at least that these particular objects have a higher degree of similarity to what might have come from an airplane.

I know that I want the mystery cleared up. I want the plane to be found. I know that I also believe the passengers are dead either way: whether this was successful terrorism that met its goal, unsuccessful terrorism with the plane crashing before its goal was met, or whether the whole thing was an accident after all. But when the possibility of finding some debris from the plane was announced, I also realized that I must have been holding onto some sort of hope that the passengers would be found alive after all, because I felt some sorrow.

If this debris is from the plane it would mean, of course, that they are dead. It would also mean that at some point the black boxes would probably be found, though, and enough information gleaned to discover what happened. I also read that black box cockpit voice recorders only contain the last two hours of the flight—that they record in a loop, and earlier parts of a flight are erased. If that is so, we would only get the voice data concerning the final two hours of the flight, which would not include the crucial hours of the beginning of the mechanical problem or hijacking. On the other hand, the flight data recorder can yield 25 hours of flight data, which would certainly include the technical information for the entirety of Flight 370.

Obamacare premiums to go up: who knew?

The New Neo Posted on by

I get tired of writing “no surprise here.”

But—no surprise here:

Health industry officials say ObamaCare-related premiums will double in some parts of the country, countering claims recently made by the administration.

The expected rate hikes will be announced in the coming months amid an intense election year, when control of the Senate is up for grabs. The sticker shock would likely bolster the GOP’s prospects in November and hamper ObamaCare insurance enrollment efforts in 2015.

The industry complaints come less than a week after Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Kathleen Sebelius sought to downplay concerns about rising premiums in the healthcare sector. She told lawmakers rates would increase in 2015 but grow more slowly than in the past.

“The increases are far less significant than what they were prior to the Affordable Care Act,” the secretary said in testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee.

Her comment baffled insurance officials, who said it runs counter to the industry’s consensus about next year.

“It’s pretty shortsighted because I think everybody knows that the way the exchange has rolled out ”¦ is going to lead to higher costs,” said one senior insurance executive who requested anonymity.

The insurance official, who hails from a populous swing state, said his company expects to triple its rates next year on the ObamaCare exchange.

Next year’s probable rate hikes will be announced right before the election—unless Obama finds a way to either (a) postpone that little habit of the insurance companies; or (2) give them enough bailout (risk corridor) money on the side in exchange for a promise not to raise rates; or (3) raise the subsidies so that no one really will be paying the actual rates except the very, very rich (which somewhat amounts to the same thing as #2, just through a different route).

I suppose if he’s done what he’s already done, he can do that, too. Who’s going to stop him?

And it’s pretty certain that, say whatever the increase is, they will claim it’s less than what would have occurred without Obamacare, whether it’s true or not.

Sebelius’ role is clear, too. She’s a good apparatchik who will say whatever is needed, however preposterous, to placate the public for as long as possible. Why “insurance officials” should be “baffled” about any of it baffles me, quite frankly—if they’re even really baffled at all.

Why on earth…

The New Neo Posted on by

…would Putin listen to any threats or admonitions coming from the US or the EU right now? I cannot think of one. It’s not that they have no economic power over him—they do—it’s that they seem to have no will to execute it. He knows it, they know it, everyone knows it. That’s the reason Russian officials feel perfectly okay jokingly insulting Obama.

Putin will do whatever he considers expedient, unless something changes drastically and soon.

Electoral changes: North, South, East, West, inland, coast

The New Neo Posted on by

Just for fun, I randomly chose an election year from the past to compare to recent ones. Here’s the map for the presidential race of 1880:

1880election

Fifteen years after the Civil War, you can see an exceptionally dramatic North/South polarization. And yet, if you look at the vote percentages state-by-state, you’ll find that in no state was the winner’s take more than around 65%, and most were much closer than that (except for Vermont, which went for the Republican Garfield at close to 70%, so I guess Vermont was always a state of extremes).

Fast forward to 2012. Here’s the map:

election2012

There’s still pretty much of a north/south split in the east, but in the west it’s not the same split. And in the east, the parties are almost exactly reversed from where they used to be. For 2012, if you look at the state-by-state percentages (you have to scroll down at the link to do it), you’ll find that, curiously, it’s still the case that for the most part the figures hover around a ceiling in the 60-percentage range, with a couple of outliers at around 70. Hawaii, Obama’s home state, gave him 70 and a fraction, whereas Utah (Mormon and conservative stronghold) voted at around 73% for Romney. Only the District of Columbia (which was barred from voting for president back in 1880) is an all-Democrat-all-the-time outlier at around 91%.

Except for that DC vote—explained,I believe, by its large inner-city black population coupled with its career federal bureaucrat population—there seems to be a mysterious in-state partisanship ceiling of roughly two-thirds which has held stable over time. I’m not sure why this would be; any ideas?

Flight 370: theories can be too simple

The New Neo Posted on by

Simple theories are usually most elegant, but they still have to account for the known facts.

With Flight 370, the facts that are known are not necessarily substantiated. But any theory advanced must account for all of them. That leaves us with theories that are, to say the least, disturbing, and ever-ready to be revised at a moment’s notice.

The whole thing is very disturbing, actually, but in this case the type of theory I usually reject (conspiracy and/or far-fetched) is probably the one that accounts best for the facts so far.

So for the moment, I go with: a pilot-terrorist, who planned in advance to divert the plane to another location by turning off the signals and flying under the radar, and either succeeded or failed. Along the way, I think it most likely that he killed the passengers through decompression. The goal, and what’s next? To sow terror, and something involving the plane and something hugely explosive. Where? Israel, the US, or China. Why? Because it’s frightening. Who? A person who considers himself a jihadi.

As I said, always up for revision in every one of its aspects. But that’s it for now.

Another Obamacare surprise coming…

The New Neo Posted on by

…unless, of course, Obama decides to change the rules in midstream.

The deadline for coverage is March 31, which means that if a person doesn’t have Obamacare-compliant health insurance after that, he/she is liable for a penalty. We’ve had that drummed into our heads.

But what has not gotten nearly enough publicity is that, if a person (ineligible for employment-based insurance) without individual insurance doesn’t get it by that deadline, he/she is out of luck for this year. No insurance policy (other than temporary catastrophic ones, a very special—and temporary—market) can be purchased on the individual market after that until next November 15, and if you buy one then it won’t start till January 1, 2015.

That’s how they’re dealing with the need to cover pre-existing conditions. The penalty was supposed to force people to buy insurance or pay it, but the penalty was set so low that it really doesn’t offer enough incentive. What most people are unaware of is that if they don’t get insurance by March 31 and then they have a need for coverage at some point during the rest of 2014, the answer is “Tough; you should have thought of that before.”

It’s ironic, isn’t it? And I’m not just talking about buying on the exchanges, I’m talking about the entire individual insurance market, the one Obamacare was supposedly going to fix. According to the insurance agents I’ve asked, even off the exchanges, paying full freight, and without a pre-existing condition, you can no longer buy an ordinary individual health insurance outside of those periods.

Here more:

Before Democrats “fixed” the health insurance marketplace, people buying their own coverage in the individual market could do so any time of the year. In addition, if a person had purchased coverage but decided he or she didn’t like dealing with that insurer or the network of doctors, or whatever, that individual could cancel the policy and buy a different one””again, any time during the year.

Well, you can kiss that economic freedom goodbye, thanks to Obamacare…

Look for news stories in April about Americans who want to get coverage””maybe they just got a raise or extra work and feel like they have enough extra money to pay the premiums””but can’t because Obamacare slammed that door shut.

If there are enough of those stories Obama will surely extend the deadline…

To be sure, the law does allow for health insurance changes in certain circumstances, such as moving to another state, a job change, getting married, etc. But for the uninsured who failed to get coverage and for those dissatisfied with what they have, their economic freedom has been taken away.

That’s what it’s all about, isn’t it? Taking away economic freedom.

Here are more facts about how open enrollment works, and what life-changing circumstances would allow you to apply at other times of year.

Israel tightens security in wake of Flight 370 disappearance

The New Neo Posted on by

It makes sense for Israel to be cautious:

With no trace of Beijing-bound flight MH370 after nine days, one of several theories that has emerged is that the plane was hijacked to Iran, where it could be turned into a massive and devastating weapon…

“My guess is based upon the stolen passports, and I believe Iran was involved [in the disappearance of the plane],” Issac Yeffet, formerly a global security expert for Israel’s national airline El Al told today’s Times of Israel. “They hijacked the aircraft and they landed it in a place that nobody can see or find it.”

As the search continued to widen fruitlessly, Israeli security officials and aviation authorities, who have long feared a 9/11-style attack, conducted a security assessment and rapidly implemented a series of security measures. The only one reported publicly is that Israeli air traffic controllers will demand that incoming aircraft identify themselves earlier than has so far been the case, sources told FoxNews.

The Israelis are smart. I hope they’re smart enough.

This is what our partner in negotiations, Iran, has been broadcasting recently:

In a recent video simulation broadcast by Iranian state TV after the initial agreement with the international community on a reduction in Iran’s nuclear capability was signed, the Azrieli Towers were shown being blown up by Iranian missiles.

The Israeli media has speculated that if Iran played a part in the disappearance of the plane, it is all but certain the regime would not have been directly involved. It would likely instead act through a third party, using one of the many international terror organizations Iran sponsors and maintaining plausible deniability. Tehran would not want to jeopardize the easing of international sanctions and other gains made recently at the Geneva negotiations with the US and the P5+1.

No, Iran certainly wouldn’t want to jeopardize its new standing in the international community.

Mind-blowing: gravity waves

The New Neo Posted on by

I’m not going to tackle this one, because Ace has done a better job than I would have.

I think. I’m not sure, because I really don’t understand it, and neither (he says) does he.

Or most people on earth, for that matter. But if it’s true, we all were part of it.

(And I finally get a chance to use that “the universe” part of the category “getting philosophical: life, love, the universe.”)