Miscellaneous musings, post-election

The New Neo Posted on by

My first thought: wow, what a ride.

My second: boy, am I tired. I was up till 7 AM although I went to bed quite a while before that. Just too much “seething cranium” to sleep. So whatever thoughts follow might be a bit more disjointed than usual, and if so, I plead exhaustion.

I am glad it’s over, as I said I would be. But I know that now begins that long hard slog through actual governing, and all the events that can throw even the most well-intentioned administration a curve. The GOP is firmly in control of the presidency and both houses; now they have a chance to show what they are made of and what they can accomplish. I hope (as I said I would hope, if Trump wins) that Trump’s better nature (and the GOP’s for that matter) is firmly in the ascendance, and that the gravity and responsibility of the office helps him always function from that better and wiser nature.

We (and he, and they) will need all the help we can get, from fate and luck and the deity, to get through and try to heal the awful divisiveness of this nation, and the conflict in the world.

On a much lighter note, Melania Trump will be the first foreign-born First Lady since Louisa Adams. I predict some rather nifty fashion from Melania, and the ability to wear it with the grace of the model she once was.

Hillary Clinton’s political career is probably over. That’s just fine with me, and most of America. The Democrats need some new blood.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s retirement plans are probably on hold for the next four years.

Trump won most of the swing states but usually by just a little bit, so his victory was broad but not deep. That indicates that whatever was happening was happening across many areas of the country, although the west coast and New England were markedly immune. It also indicates that the remarkable divide, nearly 50/50, within the American electorate continues. The popular vote margin is razor-thin (Trump is ahead as I write this but just barely, and it’s been changing hands throughout the early morning), as it was in 2000 and 2004. But I take nothing away from Trump: he worked hard, and he won.

I think that Trump’s victory as well as that of the Republican Congress tells the tale of what can happen when a party in power (the Democrats) muscles through policies and legislation that the majority of the American people don’t support. It can be done, but the people do not appreciate it. Not at all.

Trump has an unusual opportunity: a fully Republican Congress to go with his victory. George Bush had much the same thing between 2003 and 2006, and one of the things that angered a lot of people on the right was that he and they didn’t use it to further many conservative causes. My prediction is that this time it will be different, and in particular that the nuclear option will be used to facilitate Trump’s judicial appointments, much as the Democrats did with Obama’s when they controlled the Senate in 2013-2015. The Democrats don’t have a leg to stand on if they try to object when the Republicans do it now, but just watch the Democrats attempt it.

A lot of people are saying the polls were wrong. Well, they were wrong in that they were not exactly right, but they weren’t really far off in terms of the built-in margin of error. People often ignore the margin of error when they look at polls, but after the tightening of polls that occurred after the Comey letter, there were many close states that entered margin-of-error tossup territory. The average and the average over time, however, did point to a Clinton victory, and that turned out to be wrong.

White evangelicals went for Trump about 82% (I heard that on the news in the wee hours of the morning); I would imagine it had to do with abortion. Trump got 46% of the late-deciders to Clinton’s 44%, and that may have given him a slight edge over poll predictions.

If Trump can sustain the tone of his victory speech, and follow it up with the actions that he promises (or even half of them), protect liberty, and help keep this country safe, I will be more than pleased to praise him.

Call it for Trump, call it a night, call it an election for the century

The New Neo Posted on by

Although networks have not formally called the election yet, Hillary Clinton has just called Trump to concede the race, and Mike Pence is speaking, with Trump about to speak.

The fat lady is singing up a storm, telling Hillary Clinton it’s over. And not just Clinton herself, but the Democrats’ hopes of gaining control of the Senate. This is one that will be analyzed and discussed for a long, long time. So get used to hearing a lot more jaw jaw.

Trump supporters are happy, and “happy” probably doesn’t even begin to describe it. Hillary supporters are in mourning, and most are very scared as well. As for me, I’ve said for a long time that I would be worried for the country whoever wins. And I am worried, for so many reasons, including the poisonous atmosphere that has been building for years.

I’m happy about the GOP win in Congress—that was very important to me, and it was important for the GOP to have held the Senate if there was to be any chance of Trump’s promised conservative SCOTUS appointments being approved.

Those rust belt states were the key to Trump’s victory, as many projected

I’ll have a lot more to say about it tomorrow, but right now it’s over and out. Goodnight, and may God bless America. We’ll need it.

Trending Trump

The New Neo Posted on by

11:12 PM

Fox just called Florida for Trump, and that’s why I decided to start a new thread. The reason? Florida is absolutely key to any chance of a Trump victory, and Florida was close.

When elections happen, there are trends for close states. So far, the trend is Trump, and Florida is the evidence.

It’s not over, but something is happening. That “something” seems to be the deep dissatisfaction with both the Obama administration and Hillary Clinton herself. That is true whoever wins. And it was something all of us who follow politics have been aware of for many many years.

Nail-biter.

As I’ve said many times, I’ll be unhappy whoever wins. That’s not because I’m a gloomy sort, it’s because I think both candidates were and are dreadful. One thing I’m happy about, however, is what looks increasingly like a Republican hold on the Senate, although it will be close.

A long time ago—back in August of 2015—I wrote this about the Trump candidacy:

From the start of Trump’s rise in the polls I’ve taken him very seriously as a phenomenon. I haven’t understood those who casually asserted “He’s never going to win the nomination.” I’ve long thought he could, because the force of that appeal is obvious, and he’s somehow made himself immune to being criticized for anything he says…

If I were one of the other Republican candidates I’d be very very scared.

That turned out to be correct. But what I wrote right after that turned out to be correct, too:

And if I were one of the Democratic candidates I’d be scared, too.

Well, as I write this on Election Eve, I think the Democratic candidate is very very scared. Whoever ends up winning.

I’m scared, too, and I was going to be scared whoever won. I see the country as more deeply and bitterly divided than ever in my lifetime. I see our elected officials as being worse than those who have gone before in so many ways I cannot even list them. That does not change with a Trump victory and a Hillary loss, nor does it change with a Hillary victory and a Trump loss.

12:21 AM

On Fox, a pundit (I don’t know her name) just said that, of the people who thought neither candidate was qualified to be president, about 69-70% went for Trump. Interesting.

If some of the states still outstanding end up with razor-sharp margins, there could be recounts and doubt for quite a while. It will also be very disturbing to the nation if (as happened in 2000), one person (in this case, Clinton) wins the popular vote and one (in this case, Trump) wins the electoral vote. But our system always includes that possibility.

The markets are way down.

Chris Wallace asks, “Has there ever been a president that’s been a bigger shock?” Answer: “no.”

1:27 AM

Toomey has been projected to be the winner in the Senate race in Pennsylvania, which means that the Senate will remain in Republican hands.

Election night

The New Neo Posted on by

7:53 PM

We’re in the thick of it, folks.

How are you doing? I’m wishing I was a drinking woman, that’s how I’m doing.

Everything that was projected to be close is looking pretty close so far.

8:09 PM

I am extremely concerned that the Republicans hold the Senate. There hasn’t been any indication yet of how the close races are going.

8:14 PM

I had barely typed the sentence right above this one when I saw that Fox has called Florida for Rubio. Which to me is very good news.

8:27 PM

Young defeats Bayh in Indiana. This isn’t exactly a surprise—it was expected—but it was a reversal in that Bayh was initially expected to win.

8:48 PM

The closeness continues.

9:00 PM

I’m noticing that there are a number of states (for example, Florida) where a Republican senator has already been projected as the winner and yet Trump is neck-and-neck with Hillary and the outcome in the presidential race is still a toss-up. I’m also noticing, in the comments section of some pro-Trump blogs (such as Ace’s, for example), that many of those who support Trump but are feeling nervous about the possibilities of a Trump victory are already launching “stab-in-the-back” salvos at the NeverTrumpers. In other words, the present disparity between totals such as those for Rubio and those for Trump in Florida are blamed on betrayal from Republicans not voting for Trump. However, it could just as well be the result of Trump’s failure to appeal to independents. Or it could be due to Trump’s failure to reassure more people in his own party about his character, reliability, judgment, knowledge, and veracity.

9:08 PM

Looking at the Florida figures and their continued closeness, it occurs to me that the last thing we need is a repeat of Florida in 2000.

Then immediately after that it occurs to me that such an event might be a completely fitting cap to this crazy crazy election. It’s also congruent with the way the nation has seemed to be split so evenly and so bitterly for so many years.

It also occur to me that, so far, the polls have been within the margins of error, except for the Rubio vote, which was predicted to be closer. It’s still early, of course.

9:53 PM

Listening to Fox, I heard them say something curious: that no one expected it to be this close at this point.

Which makes me think: what??? Ever since the time of the Comey announcement, it became clear that it could become very very close, at this point or at any other point or even at the end point. In other words, that this one could turn out to be a squeaker.

Although I have continued to think Hillary more likely to win than Trump, any strong feeling I had about that evaporated around the time of Comey’s letter and was replaced by uncertainty. Apparently, the Fox newscasters didn’t share that uncertainty.

Virginia has just been called for Hillary Clinton. Not a real surprise.

The Fox people also were just discussing whether Trump could win the electoral vote and lose the popular vote. The answer is: of course he could, and this has long been discussed as a real possibility.

10:10 PM

Burr, Republican from North Carolina, wins his seat. That is an excellent sign, because this one was thought to be at risk.

10:26 PM

Fox just called Colorado for Hillary Clinton, and Ohio for Trump.

These were both hotly contested states, but both were leaning towards the people who eventually won them. So this is not what you’d call a surprise, nor does it really indicate the eventual winner (Romney won Ohio in 2012). But Ohio is a big big win for Trump; no question about it. Ohio was pretty much a necessary ingredient in a Trump win.

10:50 PM

Fox calls Wisconsin for Ron Johnson, beating Feingold. Another Republican victory in a race that was considered close.

North Carolina for Trump.

There can’t be a whole lot of joy in the Clinton camp right now. I think it’s going to come down to Florida. Deja vu?

10:55 PM

If Trump wins and the Senate remains Republican (the House is already projected to remain Republican, too), it would underscore how unhappy the country has become about the Obama years.

11:00 PM

I am starting a new thread.

Transformation, anyone?

The New Neo Posted on by

Here’s an attempt at some light and entertaining distraction today: another transformative makeover.

Not all that much was done, actually. It’s fairly subtle. A slight haircolor change and some more makeup, although not a ton. But you probably wouldn’t recognize this as the same woman, much less the same woman on the same day:

This is one of the sentiments that got us here

The New Neo Posted on by

I found the following comment on a thread at Legal Insurrection:

…[I]ts hard to get excited or even care about who controls the Senate. I can expect a Dem controlled Senate will be firebreathing and ram through whatever they want. But I can also expect that the GOPe will talk talk talk about doing a bunch of things and then cave in the “spirit of bipartisanship” as they sell us out for more Donor Dollars.

Shorter: The Dems will spit in my face, but at least I can see it coming. The GOPe will shiv me in the back while I am defending them.

Those days are over.

This cynical stance of false equivalence, this “if they don’t do what I want, then they’re just as bad as the opposition or really worse” attitude is what might get us a Democratic-controlled Senate to go with a Hillary Clinton president, to give her just what she wants.

I can’t remember how long ago I first encountered this “They’re all the same, but the GOP is worse because they’re back-stabbers” sentiment. But I think it was already present when I first started blogging, back in the Bush days (2004-2005). At first, it was something you saw only every now and then. But during the Obama years, it grew and grew and grew, until during the 2012 campaign I found myself fighting against it more or less constantly in the comments section (that year it had to do with both Congress and presidential nominee Mitt Romney).

In the four years since then, it has only grown, and has borne fruit in the Trump candidacy. Whoever is the victor tonight in the presidential contest, it seems obvious to me that the makeup of Congress (the Senate in particular, since that is most at risk) would be key. If Trump were president, they are needed to keep his agenda from being blocked, so if you believe in his agenda you should care very much about Congress. And if Hillary is president, Congress is obviously the way she could be blocked.

When I write “blocked,” I don’t mean completely or magically, or in every instance and every way. I mean far far more than would ever occur with a Democratic Senate. And yes, although there are some ways in which the GOP members of Congress were disappointing, the GOP-controlled Congress did block Obama’s agenda in many important ways. To deny that is to believe a destructive, emotionally-satisfying myth.

Why did both parties nominate the most abominable candidates available…

The New Neo Posted on by

…so that we have been left with a roller-coaster ride of a race to the bottom?

It’s a real question, and I’m not sure of the answer, but I’m pretty sure it has to do with the fact that we’ve sunk a lot lower as a society than we used to be—culturally, spiritually, morally, and educationally. And that last part is despite the fact that the trappings of education are better than ever: more people spend more time in school, and fancier schools at that, than ever before.

But a diploma does not an educated person make.

Or a wise one. And I don’t see a lot of wisdom flowing these days.

As for the status of the polls and predicting this election, there has been a tightening. This almost always happens close to the election. It’s also not just hard to know, but impossible to know, how turnout will go, and turnout is vital.

Personally, I would really like neither of these people to become president. I realize that’s not an option. There will be no joy in Mudville for me about the presidential race returns this evening whatever the outcome, although I suppose I can look on the bright side: if she wins, at least it’s not him, and if he wins, at least it’s not her.

I believe, however (as I’ve said before) that Hillary will most likely win. I have believed that since the moment it became clear to me (back in March or April) that Donald Trump would most likely be the GOP nominee.

As Rich Lowry writes in National Review:

The country has clearly lowered its standards in this election, and Donald Trump’s madcap candidacy provides evidence of that almost every day. But Hillary’s nomination was itself an offense against American political norms and an incredibly reckless act. And the Democrats were supposed to be the party acting rationally. Clinton effectively locked up the nomination in June and wasn’t cleared of criminal wrongdoing by the FBI until July. What if she had been indicted? Would Democrats have run her anyway?

Lowry then points out another thing I’ve been thinking myself, which is that at least the GOP bigwigs didn’t choose Trump; he was the product of a populist wave. But the Democratic “elites” chose and supported Hillary from the start. So Hillary was a case of the party favorite winning the primaries as well, although Sanders gave her a run for her money. Trump, on the other hand, was a populist phenomenon that went against the wishes of the party, although quite a few came onboard with Trump in the end as the only alternative to her left standing.

So, here we are: Election Day blues

The New Neo Posted on by

It’s very beautiful and sunny out. A perfect late fall day.

It’s even rather warm for this time of year. A perfect Election Day.

The sky is blue. My mood is blue. I predict that our next president will be blue, initials HRC.

I am hoping that the Senate will buck the blue trend and remain red.

I will be planning to comment on the election results this evening. I invite you to join me.

Mark Twain on donating to neo-neocon

The New Neo Posted on by

I probably won’t keep this donation request up too much longer. I may not bump it up on Election Day, for example—too much else going on. Then after that I’ll probably put it up for just a few more days, and then I’ll quit bugging you for a while.

From Mark Twain:

We are all creatures of impulse. It’s a great mistake to get everybody ready to give money and then not pass the hat. Some years ago in Hartford we all went to the church on a hot, sweltering night, to hear the annual report of Mr. Hawley, a city missionary, who went around finding the people who needed help and didn’t want to ask for it. He told of the life in the cellars where poverty resided, he gave instances of the heroism and devotion of the poor. The poor are always good to each other. When a man with millions gives we make a great deal of noise. It’s noise in the wrong place. For it’s the widow’s mite that counts. Well, Hawley worked me up to a great state. I couldn’t wait for him to get through. I had four hundred dollars in my pocket. I wanted to give that and borrow more to give. You could see greenbacks in every eye. But he didn’t pass the plate, and it grew hotter and we grew sleepier. My enthusiasm went down, down, down – $100 at a time, till finally when the plate came round I stole 10 cents out of it. So you see a neglect like that may lead to crime.
– speech January 20, 1901. Quoted in The New York Times, January 21, 1901

So, I wouldn’t want to fail to meet your expectations and not pass the hat.

But I want to say again how much I appreciate all your contributions, no matter how small. If every reader donated just five or ten dollars, I’d have a nice sum. Of course, hefty amounts are extremely welcome, too. But every single dollar helps me continue to write this blog, and I am grateful.

So thank you in advance. Just use the donate button on the right sidebar, and don’t forget to click through the neo-neocon portal to Amazon when you order your holiday gifts.

It’s the “Hunchback of Notre Dame” election

The New Neo Posted on by

This from Ann Althouse made me chuckle:

“Both campaigns live in fear of one thing: the last seven days of the election being a referendum on why they stink.”

Said Mike Murphy (the Republican strategist) on “Meet the Press”…

And the NPR host Audie Cornish chimed in:

“I think for that last few months, we’ve learned that any time one of them is under the spotlight, they get roughed up in the polls. They don’t look good. There’s never a time they’re in the spotlight and people say, “Gee, I think I like that person after all.”

It made me [Ann Althouse] think of the line from “The Hunchback of Notre Dame”: “I frighten you. I am very ugly, am I not? Do not look at me…”

Wow, I had completely forgotten that movie, one of those I watched in my youth many times It was played incessantly on TV back on those non-PC days. Charles Laughton was amazing, fascinating—you just had to look at him, despite his asking you not to. He was like a walking, talking, King Kong (including his love for the beautiful lady, and the towering height of the building involved).

I didn’t understand a bit of it, really, but I loved it. I don’t recall a single thing about the twistings and turnings of the plot, nor any of the non-hunchback scenes. All I remember is Quasimodo himself, and of course Esmeralda the gypsy girl (who didn’t look anywhere near as gypsy-ish as I did). Laughton held nothing back, nothing:

Are we having fun yet?: election and post-election predictions

The New Neo Posted on by

Time keeps chugging along.

And so we’ve arrived here, at the day before the big big day. We’ve run out of time to convince each other of anything.

Who will win the presidency? Who will win the Senate? On that first question, I’ll just get lazy for a change, and let Jonah Goldberg say it for me:

…[I]t looks like Trump might actually win, though I still very much doubt it. I doubt it for all the pundity kinds of reasons that pundits pundify about. So, let’s just leave all that there.

On the other hand, things certainly look better for him than anyone could have imagined prior to Jim Comey’s October surprise and all that’s followed…

Hillary Clinton deserves to lose, and I don’t know a serious political observer who doesn’t think she’d be down double digits in the polls if she were running against a standard Republican.

And that’s an important point. All of the reasons Trump is doing well now have almost nothing to do with him…

…Donald Trump didn’t force Comey to cough up a hairball on the nation’s doorstep eleven days before the election. He certainly didn’t make Hillary Clinton the spectacularly horrible candidate she is, or force her to set up her secret server…

Trump says he has nothing to do with the WikiLeaks disclosures that have eaten away at the thin and spotty veneer of Hillary’s credibility…

Nor did Donald Trump create the problems with Obamacare…

I will say, however, that if Trump wins, even his most ardent Never Trump opponents…must restart the clock and give him some benefit of the doubt…

Behind the scenes, Trump’s Republican backers insist that they will be able to manage and steer Trump toward positive ends…I am profoundly dubious of this…Character is destiny, and given his character we can predict what the destiny of the Trump presidency would be. But we all owe it to the country to give him his shot. I will be delighted to be proven wrong. But given that I actually believe the things I believe in, I don’t have high hopes.

Indeed.

What about the Senate? It’s exceedingly important, and exceedingly close as well. The safer bet is that if Hillary wins the Senate will go Democratic, and if Trump wins it will go Republican, but it seems nothing is the least bit safe this year. In fact, just as I believe Hillary has an edge in the fight for the presidency, I believe Democrats have a slight edge for the Senate, if only because I tend to be a pessimist and because in previous years the Democrats always seem to win the squeakers, by hook or by crook.

These prospects disturb me very greatly, for reasons I’m sure I don’t have to explain.

One prediction I’ll make that I think is a fairly safe one, though, is that whatever happens, the reaction of the more hard-core Trump supporters will be anger. You’d think it would be joy if Trump wins, and of course there will be quite a bit joy. But there will also be a lot of crowing and “I told you so’s,” a lot of retribution and accusations of insufficient cooperation from everyone else, a lot of rage at anyone on the right who dared to stand in Trump’s way. I don’t think this will come directly from Trump himself, necessarily. But I think it will come from many of his most fervent followers (just to be crystal clear, I’m not saying any of this about the group I call the reluctant Trump supporters).

And if Trump loses, there will be even greater anger from his hard-core followers. That is when the stab in the back* [see NOTE below] accusation will be spread far and wide, amplified and magnified.

Either way, I don’t see the war on the right ending. I see it continuing and growing worse, if possible, whoever becomes president.

The only way I see any healing occurring is if the winner—Trump or Hillary—ends up being a much better president for everyone than has been predicted by me, and by all that person’s detractors.

Gird your loins for tomorrow—and not just tomorrow, either.

[* NOTE: Some history of the phrase.]

Hillary’s maid and those classified emails

The New Neo Posted on by

Left and right are having their usual argument, this time about the riskiness of Hillary Clinton’s practice of having her maid print out some of her work-related emails. Here’s a summary of the initial story:

As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton routinely asked her maid to print out sensitive government emails and documents ”” including ones containing classified information ”” from her house in Washington, D.C., e-mails and FBI memos show. But the housekeeper lacked the security clearance to handle such material.

The left pooh-poohs it, saying that the information it wasn’t classified at the time and only received its classified designation later, so no problem:

Neither of the two classified emails referenced by the New York Post were sent by Clinton, and Clinton did not make any request for Santos to print either email. Both emails were classified years after the fact — one in October 2015, and another in January 2016 — at the lowest level of classification, “confidential.” The sole case the Post cited of Clinton asking for a message to be printed was not classified…

As reported by the Associated Press, information that may become classified later is frequently shared on unclassified State Department systems, a routine occurrence that predated the current administration. Not only was Clinton’s “transmission of now-classified information” over an unclassified system “consistent” with agency practice, according to experts, concerns arise equally whether the retroactively classified information is “carried over the government system or a private server.”

Indeed, there’s plenty of concern to go around.

The quotes from people trying to minimize this are not particularly reassuring as far as I’m concerned. Personally, although I’ve got nothing against Hillary’s maid, who no doubt is a lovely person, she has no business whatsoever having access to a single email of Hillary’s that has anything to do with State business, much less her entire email account, and whether these particular emails were classified or not (and when) is an issue but not the only issue.

For example, I don’t know how Hillary’s printer worked. But if it’s anything like the printers with which I’m familiar, the email has to be open in order for it to be printed, which means that the entire account must be signed into and accessible.

Did the maid have her email password? Or did Hillary keep herself signed in at all times? The mind boggles.