Commenter “physicsguy” writes:

… [H]ere’s a very interesting article giving some POSSIBLE reasons for the statistically anomalous 20 million increase in Democrat votes last week. I know Neo abhors any idea of conspiracy in voting fraud, but this is worth a read:

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2026/11/it-was-a-coup/

First, just to clear something up: I don’t abhor the idea of conspiracy in voting fraud, although of course I abhor fraud if and when it occurs. I’ve written a huge number of posts on the subject of voting fraud and I believe several things about it. The first is that of course it sometimes occurs. The second is that it tends to occur in geographic areas dominated by blue cities offsetting redder rural areas. The third is that much of the supposed “statistical” evidence for it is weak. The fourth (and perhaps most important) is that if it’s done well it’s almost impossible to detect.

Even more important, perhaps, is something I’ve written many many times: when voting security is lax – and in particular with the use of computers rather than hand-counting of paper ballots, as well as universal or widespread mail-in ballots – trust in the integrity of the voting process becomes fatally flawed whether there is significant fraud or not. That’s happened in the US; trust is very much broken. Once that happens, each side tends to think an election where they lost was stolen by the other side.

I read the piece physicsguy linked, and I’m unimpressed by it. For example, I’ve read previously that in many elections the results actually do seem to occur almost everywhere and to a similar degree – for example, let’s say we’re talking about a 5% swing to Democrats, or close races breaking uniformly to Democrats. Same is true for election years in which Republicans tend to get the breaks. The latter occurred, for example, in 2024. I remember the maps; do you? Here’s one, for example.

Now, it the author of that article had done a detailed comparison to the election of 2024 and compared the swings to the GOP back then to the swings to the Democrats this time, I’d be much more interested. In fact, I haven’t seen anyone claiming fraud in the 2026 election doing that sort of analysis (if you find something of that sort, please give me a link). The bank-and-forth cries out for explanation, if the Democrats could commit such widespread and influential fraud in 2020 and 2026, why were they asleep at the wheel in 2024? Surely they hated Trump and the Democrats just as much.

I suggest that anyone who hasn’t read my analysis of the 2026 results in the state of New Hampshire, please do so (here’s the link). When I looked at those results, in a state (NH) with enormous election security and which previously was controlled by the GOP at the state level, and saw the enormity of the swing to Democrats (with one anomaly: the Republican governor hung on), I became more convinced than ever that the 2026 election results were basically bona fide and represent an actual trend that holds for most of the nation.

That trend is the thing to which the right needs to be paying attention. Claims of fraud without sufficient evidence not only serve as an excuse, but they are counterproductive in that they can further depress turnout on the right. If everything is fixed, then there’s no hope and no reason to go to the polls. If low turnout on the right was the problem in this election – and I think there is strong evidence that was the case – then the claim of fraud everywhere is highly likely to depress that turnout further.

NOTE: I’m open to changing my mind about the 2026 election and fraud if I see an argument and evidence that is convincing and that explains what happened in 2024. So far I haven’t seen it.