It’s minor, but it bugs me anyway. An accretion of this sort of thing is how false memes (left or right) are created and reinforced until they become Truths, whether they’re true or not.
Some are a lot more important than this one, but this one is typical. Was it done through carelessness or was it purposeful? In this particular case, I vote for carelessness.
I’m talking about a point made in a piece at PJ by Michael Walsh on the rosy GOP prospects in the Senate in 2018. Those prospects are indeed pretty good, because there are quite a few Democratic senators from fairly conservative states who are up for re-election and might be at risk.
But that’s not the part of the article that caught my eye and concerned me. This did:
This was the year that the Democrats hoped to take back the U.S. Senate; after all, the Republicans were defending 24 seats, and the Dems only ten. Alas for them, the Trump wave pretty much swamped them, re-electing several shaky senators, such as Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, while sweeping away only the sad-sack from Illinois, Mark Kirk, and New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte, who unwisely threw in her lot with the McCain wing of the party and is now unemployed.
And to underscore the point, here’s the photo that accompanies the article:
The implication is crystal clear: we are seeing RINO Ayotte with fellow RINOs McCain and Graham, in happier days. If only Ayotte had “thrown her lot” in with the winning Trump wing rather than the McCain wing, perhaps she wouldn’t now be unemployed. The Trump wave “swept her away.”
What’s wrong with that? Sounds reasonable. But it’s not what actualy happened to Ayotte. Oh yes, she lost her Senate seat, all right. And she hadn’t supported Trump—although she had initially said she’d vote for him, she took that back after his Billy Bush tape surfaced.
But Ayotte did better in New Hampshire than Trump did. There was no “Trump wave” in New Hampshire. In fact, whatever ticket-splitting New Hampshire’s GOP voters did favored Ayotte over Trump. So it’s far more logical to conclude that she would have lost by a larger margin had she supported Trump.
Trump lost New Hampshire by 2,736 votes. If you think that’s not all that much, you’re correct. But New Hampshire is a small state, and a purplish state, and victory margins are often very small there.
Ayotte’s margin of loss was much smaller than Trump’s: she lost by a mere 699 votes. What’s more, she was running against a highly popular two-term NH governor, Maggie Hassan, and Ayotte’s seat was known to be shaky even before Trump ever threw his hat into the ring.
In summary, there isn’t a single reason to think that Ayotte lost votes by not supporting Trump. If anything, she gained them.
You might say, so what? As I already stated, it’s a minor issue. But take that misperception, and multiply it by many factors and many other issues, and you have the way many of us we get our information and form our ideas about things.


