There are four main things to say about any political speech.
The first is whether you liked it. The second is whether you agreed with it. The third is whether you thought it was effective in political terms. And the fourth is whether you thought it could hurt the speaker.
For me, these four things are quite separate, in part because (as I’ve probably said too many times already) I really don’t like to listen to speeches at all, and consider political speeches “the worst of the worst.”
So it takes a lot to get me to like a speech, and it’s very rare that I do. Donald Trump’s speech last night didn’t even begin to come close to what I look for in a speech—as Paul Mirengoff writes, it was a “sledgehammer” of a speech, loud and long and pounding away.
So let’s just stipulate that I didn’t like it, and go on to whether I agree with it. I certainly agree with a great deal of it, just as I agree with a great deal of the stated Trump platform, although hardly all. I certainly agree with the need to metaphorically hit Hillary with that sledgehammer, reminding people constantly of her myriad and deep flaws.
Now we get to the heart of the matter—because really, except for the purposes of this blog and you readers, whether I like the speech or not is hardly of importance. But was it effective? The answer is yes.
I have no idea how many people watch these speeches, but it’s a lot, and it matters. Just recall what happened to Obama in 2004, when he gave a speech at the DNC—not as the nominee, but the keynote speaker. He hadn’t even been elected to national office at the time—he’d been an Illinois state senator prior to that, and had just won the Democratic primary for the US Senate for the state of Illinois. But the Democrats knew a rising star when they saw one, and they gave him a platform to rise some more. His speech was apparently electrifying (I didn’t watch it) and brought him national fame. People remembered it a few short years later when he ran for the presidency despite his inexperience, and they liked him in great part because of the message of togetherness expressed in the speech—a message that turned out to be completely bogus.
Now, that’s an effective speech.
But back to Trump. People have called the speech “red meat,” and I think that’s an apt description. My definition of “red meat” is something that satisfies hunger but is a bit raw and bloody, and in speech terms it means it touches most of the bases and rouses whatever emotion needs to be roused. In Trump’s case the emotion is anger and outrage at the mess that has been made of the country and the world during the Obama administration and the resultant pickle we’re in, and anger and outrage at Hillary Clinton’s manifold errors and deceitful (perhaps even criminal) ways. Trump also reached out to the non-conservatives and non-Republicans he thinks can be enticed into his populist camp, and he did it in his own style: no eloquence and no finesse, just give it to ’em straight and hard.
With Trump, the fourth question—did he hurt himself?—is always especially important. Usually it’s difficult to say, because what would be harmful in another candidate seems only to have enhanced his appeal, at least in the primaries. But last night it wasn’t difficult to say that he did not hurt himself. The teleprompter helped in that endeavor (although there were some ad-libs, which is a Trump signature). That’s why some of his opponents on the left say the speech scared them—they are smart enough to see its general appeal, and it made them believe he just might win.
I agree that the speech might help him win, and that it won’t hurt him one iota. Whether speeches should have much influence is another question. But the fact that I think they should be largely irrelevant in assessing what you yourself think about a candidate (unless they’re the only thing you know about that candidate) is in itself somewhat irrelevant, because people are influenced by them, and sometimes a very great deal.
The fact that I tend not to be influenced by any speeches (except Churchill’s and Lincoln’s, but in that case it’s not just their speeches that influence me, and I already know how things turned out with them) isn’t just due to my problem with auditory processing. And it’s not just about Trump, either. Political speeches almost always sound to me like con artists talking, or snake oil salesmen: “This will cure rheumatism, gout, lumbago, indigestion, female troubles, hangnails…all for one low low price…”
Trump may sound more like that than most, but the tendency is nearly universal. There are exceptions, of course, but they are rare and getting rarer.
Which brings us to something that commenter “Beverly” wrote last night:
Well, if Trump says the right things and you still don’t believe him, there’s nothing, literally, he can do to persuade you: that sounds emotional to me.
No; not emotional. Rational. If a person doesn’t believe Trump at this point, it is almost certainly because Trump has lied consistently throughout the campaign and throughout his life—on big things, on small things, on medium-sized things. I’ve written about that so many times in so many ways and with so many examples that it’s tedious to have to mention it again. He has also changed position on big things and small things, both long ago and relatively recently (last few years, anyway). He also says frightening and irresponsible things on a regular basis in the realm of foreign policy. He insults people in the most vicious and personal of ways, and he lies about them in extreme and abusive ways, over and over and over.
I could go on, but you get the idea.
One of the things I’m angry about in this Year of the Trump is that I just might have to vote for someone as despicable as that, and I resent deeply being placed in that position. But that’s the position I’m in. I’ve known for almost a year it might be the position I (and many of you) would be in, and I’ve known since about March or April that it almost certainly would be the position I’d be in. I been wrestling with it all that time, and I think I know what I must do, but don’t ask me to like it, because I hate it with every fiber of my being.
After all, why on earth what anyone trust what a liar promises in a political speech, particularly if the liar is saying the things that he or she thinks that voters wants to hear, and particularly when that person has proven his or her views to be mutable and has no track record of political actions (other than contributing money to both sides, including a lot to the opposition) because he or she has never held public office?
We also get a gut sense of character, but we can be wrong about that. We evaluate all people when we first meet them, and then we continue to evaluate them over time, using a combination of their behavior and their words, with behavior far more important than words if the two conflict. Trump—or any other politician—is no different.
So no, there’s nothing he can say in a speech right now to persuade me to believe him, and that’s because there is so much else he has done and said till now, and I’ve been paying close attention. What would persuade me is if he were to become president and starts following through on what he’s promised, with success and with respect for the Constitution, actually accomplishing much of what he has set out to accomplish. In that event, I will be happy to say I underestimated him on his ability to keep his political promises and to do the right thing for America. But a speech he makes is just as irrelevant in persuading me what kind of president he will be, good or bad, as the speech Obama made in 2004 was—which is to say, not at all.
We may even get to find out what kind of president Trump would be. God bless—and help—America.
[NOTE: I want to add that what sort of children Trump has, good or bad, is almost entirely irrelevant to me, and that’s true of all politicians as far as I’m concerned. But that’s another post for another time.]