Trump on the Iran Deal [scroll down for important UPDATE]
Here are some statements, for what they’re worth:
President Donald Trump dismissed “false” media claims that the U.S. will be party to a $300 billion fund for Iran, as leaked versions of the initial agreement allege that the regime will receive billions of dollars worth of “cash sweeteners” just to sign a “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU) on Friday.
“President Donald Trump says the agreed deal with Iran is not final,” BBC reported Wednesday. “Speaking at the G7 summit in France, he adds that the US will “go back to dropping bombs” if he does not like the final agreement.”
The president also rejected the $300 billion fund claim, calling it “false.” “People can invest if they want. I mean, what am I going to do — say nobody’s ever allowed to invest? We’re not investing. We’re not putting up ten cents,” he told reporters.
I’d say it’s about 50/50 that any agreement will be signed at all and released on Friday. Of course, that’s a pretty safe bet; you sort of win either way, because you’ve really predicted nothing except that it will be one or the other.
UPDATE 5:40 PM:
Just a few moments after I wrote and posted the above, I saw that there’s been a briefing from the White House on the deal. It says basically what I wrote yesterday, strangely enough, which was this:
At any rate, it sounds like the agreement is just an agreement to ease pressure on Iran in order to have some future negotiations. Why? Is this mainly a temporary measure about oil prices?
About today’s White House briefing:
“We’re not going to be taking their word for anything,” a senior U.S. official said when asked about “compliance” for Iran’s adherence to the deal, particularly when it comes to nuclear development, adding that the U.S. will “work very closely with the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA].”
Some provisions: a ceasefire (already in effect anyway, I would say), some blather about “mutual respect” (absurd, I would say, but typical diplospeak), more negotiations for 60 days for a “final” deal (which can be extended, so is basically meaningless), opening Hormuz – and the rest of it is mostly just things that might happen in a final agreement. A wish list, as it were.
What will happen more immediately is this:
The United States of America undertakes, but immediately upon the signing of this MOU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives and all associated services including banking, transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
There’s also this, which is somewhat opaque as to when it would happen:
The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use, the frozen, or restricted funds, and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of the MOU, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will usually agree on the procedures related to the relief of these funds during the negotiation. Such funds, whether retained in the original accounts or transferred, government may be fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The opaque part is whether this happens right away or is contingent, like so much of the rest, on further agreement.
It’s about what I expected, and I still find it troubling. It also still seems to me to be a way to get oil prices down in order to help the economy and the midterms. It seems to me to signal weakness, and since it depends on Trump’s now-uncertain readiness to go back to war if things don’t work out, that signal seems like an invitation to Iran to declare it has made the US capitulate. And in this case I think Iran would be correct.
I’ve written a great deal about Iran, both in the past and recently, and I’ve always seen it as an intractable problem. The Iranian government will stop at nothing – literally nothing – to stay in power. Our resolve does not include all-out war or boots on the ground. Modern technology and targeted bombings can only do so much.
ADDENDUM:
Professor Jacobson at LI says it more bluntly than I, but I’m in agreement with him:
It’s an embarrassment and sell out of our national interests. And that’s the nicest thing I can say about it. No reason to sugarcoat it. We went from sweeping military success to capitulating because Iran threatened to destroy the world economy and drive energy prices higher.
What a shame.
One of the many reservations I had about Trump at first, and have retained right along, is Trump’s mercurial nature and his loose-cannon tendencies. This can go either way; he’s unpredictable. Sometimes he’s rock-solid and sometimes he says or does things that make a person cringe. He is never completely reliable. The explanation for what is happening now with this deal – and the cause of my own uneasiness since the negotiations and ceasefire phase began – is not clear. But I agree that it has to do with economics. I would add, however, that Trump’s narcissistic desire to make a deal is probably some part of it. I’ve expressed that fear before: that the idea of himself as dealmaker extraordinaire would cause him to make a bad one. This seems to be that bad one, unless there’s a whole lot that I’m missing.
Another thing that has made me more and more uneasy as time has gone on is that Vance has become more visible as spokesperson compared to Rubio. This did not, and does not, bode well.
At the moment, this appears to rank up there with Biden’s retreat from Afghanistan – or worse. I hope I’m overreacting.
Many don’t want to acknowledge it, but Cushing bottoming out right as this deal was struck – by his own admission – confirms this is fundamentally a bow to the unavoidable.
Wow, Neo…you certainly have been invaded by trolls lately. WUWT.
physicsguy:
Actually, just one troll with a host of sock puppets. And an old (previous, that is) troll at that, with one new trick. Since trolls get off on kicking people when people seem to be feeling down, the Iran Deal is a tempting opportunity for a troll.
Don’t you find the rather sudden and high volume of trollishness correlated closely to the relative ease of rhetorical vulnerability given the many uncertainties surrounding the MOU, physicsguy? Seems kinda to be expected, to me. There’s metaphorical gold to be made, and all manner of opponents — be they foreign enemy types or domestic enemy types — are seizing the opportunties while they’re present.
sdferr:
Please see my comment above yours.
I did neo, but sadly for me only after I’d already pointlessly blurbed the above. Ah well.
Again, the public’s unwillingness to support all-out war against Iran provides all the political cover Congressional democrats and RINO’s need to hamstring Trump from being able to permanently do away with the Iranian theocracy. Which means the threat is only temporarily reduced. Clearly, we’ll have to lose a few major cities to nuclear terrorist attacks before the American public is dragged by events into finally facing up to the mortal, existential threat that Islam presents to the West.
The worth of the deal will be determined by it’s opposition.
Iran does not have an emporer to force a surrender. And no one in the western world, including us, has the stomach for a ground invasion (the costs of which could even have resulted in a negotiated peace with Japan in 45, absent the bomb and Russian pressure).
Also, absent the ground war, even with unlimited air-delivered ordinance, Germany would have carried on quite well. Why do we think the IRGC is any less committed than the Nazis?
It is incumbent upon the salesman of a product to ensure that said product functions and performs as advertised, otherwise the pitch is a lie. Iran is a global threat but this was poorly planned, poorly sold, and poorly executed. The proof of such is in the disappointment pudding, now being served.
This wasn’t thought through thoroughly enough, which in a sense is somewhat more disconcerting than how it was sold considering plans for this have been actively underway for over 20 years.
Iran is a global threat!
Or not, for now.
The 60 day cease fire/limited fire would benefit President Trump/Republicans midterm elections as much/more than Iran’s bragging rights.
How quickly oil gets flowing over the next month/60 days could determine the November elections. Gas prices could be down 50-75 cents/gallon by the end of August, which is when the campaigns begin in earnest.
Right now, conservatives/supporters of the President have to make the case how much Iran’s military capabilities have been degraded/ how we aren’t going to allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, let alone a nuclear weapons program. Iran is a shell of a military power at this point.
Once the case is made that the sacrifice has been worth it and overthrowing the regime was never the goal, Republican chances of retaining House and Senate majorities rise.
This is not capitulation and conservatives need to grow a spine. Every effort needs to be focused on the House and Senate races. Iran isn’t off the table– it’s been put in a timeout.
^— Trust the Plan, Chuds.
This idiotic war has thrown the House and probably the Senate.
Under 50 support for Trump is dead. Even the oldest Gen-X’ers are likely to flip.
He’s totally lost younger White males who came out in droves for him last time around.
You people don’t get it because you’re not plugged in to the same online and offline off the record casual gossip that the youngsters are. The disgust over Epstein Files, Trump’s breaking his No New Wars promise when Bibi snapped his fingers, and the never-ending flood of H1-B j33ts taking all the tech jobs, Punjabi trucking mafias, while a few Squatemalans and Skinnies get performatively ICEd, elite and even just non-directional State college admissions being rigged against them, etc., etc…
White males who don’t need diapers are mostly going to sit out November in disgust. The women will vote the way they invariably do, so you know what that means. There won’t be enough votes to counter the usual Dem vote-rigging and no amount of Miriam’s Shekels is likely to counter that.
You don’t realise just how many of the younger males are in a let it burn state of mind. You can argue that it’s not the rational way to be. Jaysus wept…. Rationality went out the door in 1991/2 and kept a-walking and so the world unfolds, gradually at first and then all at once IYKWIM.
Trump is obese, low IQ, and an ivy league fraud. He has lost on every account, lost israel’s war bigly, and has destroyed the country in every way. Good night, losers, and wake up in prison.
^– That wasn’t me.
Also only about half correct and I prefer tad more forensic detail.
Standards are dropping all round. Probably raised on TikTok.