AOC as a presidential candidate
I mentioned the other day that I think AOC’s candidacy for president is a distinct possibility for 2028 or 2032. I didn’t really explain why I say that, though, and so that’s what this post is about.
AOC is on the extreme left, or what used to pass for extreme. So was Obama, but he hid it fairly successfully, especially when campaigning for his first time. AOC doesn’t have that option. In that respect she’s more like Bernie Sanders, because she’s been fairly straightforward about her extreme leftism. In 2016, Democrat higher-ups blocked Sanders from winning the nomination when it looked as though he had a chance to do so, using their superdelegates to favor Hillary because they thought Bernie the outright socialist could not win in the general.
Like Bernie, AOC can’t hide who she is, but I think the party calculus has changed. How far has the Overton Window moved in the ensuing years? The party may believe a socialist could win by 2028. After all, Mamdani was elected mayor of New York City.
But New York City isn’t the US, and a 3-way mayoral race isn’t a 2-way presidential race. So I don’t know about AOC and the nomination, but I strongly believe it could happen. And if it does happen, Democrats will be counting on some or all of the following:
(1) Fraud will pull them over the line.
(2) AOC has appeal to two groups. The first is leftists, especially young ones. The Democratic Party is loaded with those. The second is those people who will never, never ever vote for a Republican and think that any Democrat is better than any Republican. Those two groups together make up a not insignificant percentage of the electorate. Enough to win, if turnout is good and they are highly motivated? I don’t know.
(3) Who are the alternative candidates in the party who would be viable in the general and who yet could appeal to the base enough to win the primaries? No one comes to mind.
The funny thing is that I think one good candidate would be Fetterman, because he could appeal to the moderate middle in the general, and yet yellow dog Democrats would also hold their noses and vote for him if he was the nominee. But Democrats will never nominate him because the base hates him and considers him a traitor to the party.
Why am I even thinking about 2028 at this point? Well, it’s not all that far off. I also saw excerpts of an AOC interview recently and it seems to me that she’s positioning herself for a future run. Actually, it’s seemed that way to me almost from the moment she first burst on the scene.
An excerpt:
The people in that room love her.
The Democratic Party is destructive. The inclination to be destructive is pervasive (though not usually as thorough and intense as it is in greater Minneapolis and some other loci). AOC would bother party paymasters like Omidyar, but she’s otherwise only marginally more destructive than the rest of them. She’ll get 96% of the vote some generic Democrat would get. Democratic voters are bereft of seriousness of mind and will vote for destruction.
AOC is no different from Biden; she would be President in name but she would not be in charge. People nobody voted for would be in charge, and Dems are completely fine with that, and so would be plenty of big corporations addicted to crony capitalism.
She did not put herself into the position she has now. Somebody paid for the expensive suits and photography and favorable media coverage in her first campaign; somebody told her how to get the paperwork done to put her boyfriend on the payroll after she was elected.
Do it. Please. Chompers was born with a silver hoof in her mouth and I’m for anything that keeps her braying.
Unwillin’
I would not be so sanguine. Neo’s points 1 and 2 tell the story. Nov 2028 is a long way away politically. If the Trump plan succeeds and the economy is humming and all these nasty international players are under control, then Rubio or Vance have a good shot. And with regard to Neo’s point 2: those that fall in to her second category that I know will be highly motivated as TDS morphs into RDS.
Sure, AOC can be nominated. The D-Party is that crazy these days. And they love to be in love with a candidate. AOC can do that.
However, politics aside, she is not that bright, not that clever and not that charismatic. She is not Obama by any means.
I think there has been a sea change in American politics plus a structural change in the money Democrats get to play with.
I imagine there will be baggage left behind by Trump 47. Nonetheless, I believe the MAGA wave has another four years left. Maybe more.
Act normal, no screaming, show cleavage, promise free stuff and legalized mj and get the youngsters who typically do not vote.
Not only is the presidential race not 3 way (although it does happen C.F. Wallace, Anderson, and Perot) but it is for electoral votes NOT popular votes. I think AOC will have a hard time winning over much of the red and purple regions, and she must have some of them to hit the 270 Electoral votes needed to win. AOC is also almost as tone deaf as VP Harris was. Is she a threat? Maybe, though an outlier of one unless we get a strong third party run or unless something catastrophic happens between now and November 2028. Of the extant democrats Virginia’s Spanberger is probably the closest in running to the likely Republican candidates (Vance or Rubio). I’d say Shapiro of Pennsylvania is better, except given the strong antisemitic parts of some of the Democrat base he is a no go.
AOC is on the extreme left, or what used to pass for extreme. So was Obama, but he hid it fairly successfully, especially when campaigning for his first time.
I saw Obama was just recently in Texas supporting this guy Talarico. They were trying to use that old Obama magic of “I’m just a regular guy and a blank screen. Paint your hopes and desires on my screen.”
Co-Pilot: