Is the Iranian government in its death throes or not?
There are reports of more protests and greater crackdowns on the protestors. Who will win this time?:
As protests against Iran’s government swelled significantly in size on Thursday night, the regime responded in many places by opening fire. A Tehran doctor told TIME on condition of anonymity that just six hospitals in the capital had recorded at least 217 protester deaths, “most by live ammunition.”
The death count, if confirmed, would signal a feared crackdown presaged by the regime’s near-total shutdown of the nation’s Internet and phone connections since Thursday night. It would also constitute a direct challenge to U.S. President Donald Trump, who earlier in the day warned that the regime would “pay hell” if it killed protesters who have taken to the streets in growing numbers since Dec. 28.
…Human rights groups on Friday reported much lower death tolls than the physician, though the discrepancy might be explained by differing reporting standards. The D.C.-based Human Rights Activist News Agency, which tallies only victims who have been identified, reported at least 63 deaths since the start of the protests, including 49 civilians.
TIME has been unable to independently verify these figures.
And I certainly haven’t a clue.
More:
Interviewed before Thursday night’s bloodletting, analysts named several wild cards in how the protests—and the regime’s response—might evolve. One is whether even larger numbers of middle- and upper- class Iranians and minority ethnic groups continue to join the demonstrations despite the growing threat of a violent response. Many chanted support for Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the Shah, or King, deposed in the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought the clerics to power. Pahlavi, who lives in the United States, had called for a massive showing on both Thursday and Friday nights. He has promised to return to Iran and usher in a secular democracy.
Most of the Iranian people have been shut off from the internet, except for Starlink.
And Trump has re-issued a threat:
“I have let them know that if they start killing people, which they tend to do during their riots… we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump said in an interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt on Thursday.
Trump had warned last month that the regime would face consequences if the government shot protesters.
When Hewitt mentioned that dozens have already been killed in the protests, Trump said some were due to stampedes and not necessarily caused by law enforcement.
“I’m not sure I can necessarily hold somebody responsible for that, but … they’ve been told very strongly — even more strongly than I’m speaking to you right now — that if they do that, they’re going to have to pay hell,” Trump says.
How many shot is enough? And will he really do anything, and if so what?
It would be a wonderful thing if the regime of the mullahs finally fell after all these years.
NOTE: I’ve written a great deal about Iran over the years. I suggest reading this post.
There may not be another opportunity to overthrow the mullahs for years if we don’t make sure the current revolt succeeds. I believe that Trump knows that, and with US forces now in position, let’s see how he plays it.
He said he will do something if they start killing civilians, and that has begun. I take him seriously, and so should the Iranian leadership, but I don’t know what he will do. Do they know where the Supreme Leader’s hideout is?
Fondly to we hope, fervently do we pray.
If nothing else, maybe the US can arm some of the protest groups to somewhat level the playing field…
But what does Tucker think or say? ( … and the horse he rode in on)
The Mullahs believe it is their holy duty to lead the people into making the entire world Islamic. When challenged, religious fanatics keep doubling down, as they have begun to do and in the face of such, unarmed protests and riots are the equivalent of spitting into the wind. The stronger Trump’s response, the more likely that the Mullahs will order their sleeper cells in the US to activate.
Very brave people out in the streets.
Hard to say what will happen now.
But what does Tucker think or say?
The Iranians know because the government was broadcasting his show. Or so I read. Hard to believe.
Who’s the strong horse now? It ain’t the mullahs.
In the short-term I’m optimistic, though far from certain. In the long-term I just don’t see the Islamic Republic as sustainable. They have taken too many hits in the past year — including the elimination of the nuclear weapons program — to continue to be credible. Then there is the rampant inflation plus the issues of water security throughout Iran, especially in Tehran.
The outright support the US and Israel have made for the protestors also makes a difference. I suspect that Trump is indeed locked and loaded and just waiting for the most opportune moment to strike.
I would have thought Iran would have learned something from Trump’s threat to destroy their nukes last summer. But pragmatically, maybe they don’t have a choice but to quash the protestors with killing.
Also, Israel might aid the Iranian people. And they have good reason to aid them, since the Islamic Republic is their biggest threat.
Geoffrey Britain on January 9, 2026 at 7:16 pm said:
The Mullahs believe it is their holy duty to lead the people into making the entire world Islamic. When challenged, religious fanatics keep doubling down, as they have begun to do and in the face of such, unarmed protests and riots are the equivalent of spitting into the wind. The stronger Trump’s response, the more likely that the Mullahs will order their sleeper cells in the US to activate.
Similar to leftists. Both very ideological.
Peter Theroux at TabletMag:
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/is-this-time-different-iran-protests
God bless the citizens of Iran and God bless Elon Musk for making X a free speech platform!
I’m old enough to have seen several Middle Eastern governments fall – their successors were seldom an improvement.
And what does Tucker say? The Babylon Bee has the answer:
https://babylonbee.com/news/tucker-carlson-dumbfounded-why-iranians-protesting-most-amazing-government-on-planet
What exactly can the USA do to assist Iranians seeking to overthrow the mullahs?
Anyone notice that there has not been one single demonstration on any college campus in the USA in support of the Iranian people seeking to overthrow the mullahs ???
Ditto for demonstrations in support of the average Venezuelan citizen?
not been one single demonstration
When the Soviet Union invaded Czechoslovakia, I went to a protest in NYC. There were maybe two dozen people standing in a drizzling rain. Protests are a left wing industry.
Mike Doran, Hudson Inst.: https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/ayatollahs-regime-crumbling-michael-doran
If a regime resorts to mass deadly force they have lost, even the threat makes them losers.
The IRGC needs to switch sides. I don’t know how the demonstrators can win otherwise.
The adage, whoever controls the army controls the country is still true. There have been reporting that some IRGC militias have defected and the regime has redirected the regular IRGC to internal control and has also imported Hezbollah into Iran as crowd control. Discussion here indicates the military hasn’t defected. Until that happens the regime can maintain its status as leader of the country.
Compare this to the Ukraine “Revolution of Dignity”. It took 4 months to reach the crescendo of Feb. 21– and the Berkut police basically disbanding. In addition, the western Ukrainians were raiding armories and arming themselves. As long of the Islamic regime is willing to shoot its countrymen– whether internally or with outside troops and the Iranians remain without the military capability to fight the regime, the mullahs can continue.
The question remains whether the Trump administration or the IDF can target the leadership of the IRGC and decapitate the military in sufficient quantity to cause massive defections.
ILTV On The Hour – January 11, 2026 | Iran Erupts: Trump Issues Warning, Israel Prepares for Fallout
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziK_z1TUGTE
Israel recognizes and is preparing for the likelihood the Islamic regime in Iran will lash out against Israel with ballistic missile attacks as it loses control internally.
Day 828 – Iran threatens Israel as anti-regime protests hit 2-week mark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maidaYzZ7ww