↓
 
Home » Open thread 10/10/2024

Open thread 10/10/2024

The New Neo Posted on by

I’m not too keen on this dancer in general because I think she lacks freedom in her upper body. But what a jump! It’s as though she has springs in her legs:

Comments

Open thread 10/10/2024 — 32 Comments

  1. A Twofer…

    One:

    You don’t know what you don’t know. –Socrates

    There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know. –Donald Rumsfeld

    The science behind why people think they’re right when they’re so, so wrong

    There may be a psychological reason why some people aren’t just wrong in an argument — they’re confidently wrong.

    Snip … Although people were confident about their opinions when they had only read arguments in favor of one solution, when presented with all of the facts, they were often willing to change their mind … “We thought that people would really stick to their original judgments even when they received information that contradicted those judgments, but it turns out if they learned something that seemed plausible to them, they were willing to totally change their minds”…

    “People are more open-minded and willing to change their opinions than we assume,” Fletcher said. However, “this same flexibility doesn’t apply to long-held differences, such as political beliefs.”

    Here’s the actual study – The illusion of information adequacy

    Two:

    Conservatives Reveal Plan To Awaken Sleeping Giant Voter Demographic That Could Decide White House, Senate

    .. Republicans hope to reach the estimated 10 million gun owners not registered to vote, hunting and pro-gun organizations alike know traditional messaging won’t do it.

    “Bill Clinton acknowledged, as did Clinton’s campaign, the White House spokesman Joel Lockhart admitted, that the gun vote cost Al Gore the White House. It cost John Kerry the White House. It cost the Democrats control of Congress in 1994 after they passed the Clinton gun ban, and we believe it can be a determinative factor in this election in places where there’s high gun ownership, in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Montana, Arizona, Nevada”…

  2. This is how it is done.
    There are 31 operational rescue aircraft and hundreds of rescuers engaged in more than 125 active missions in 26 Florida counties, in addition to over 6,500 soldiers deployed throughout the state, according to DeSantis.

    Now, why couldn’t Gov of NC do this?
    Now, why couldn’t FEMA do this?

    And DeSantis had this too: Power has been restored to 635,000 residents since the hurricane made landfall, the governor said, although there are still 3.1 million people without power. Hillsborough, Hardee, Manatee, Pinellas and Sarasota Counties are the areas with the most power outages.

    “There are 50,000 plus linemen that have been pre-staged. A lot of what they’ll do this morning is likely assess the damage and then begin restoration operations very quickly,” DeSantis said.

  3. Report from Jax…1.5″ of rain over 24 hours, max wind by my backyard weather station was 15mph. Helene we had 6″ and 70mph gusts and out of power for 20 hours. Daughter reports (2 miles north of Magic Kingdom), no power outage and trees still standing with minimal street flooding. There are numerous outages around her though in Orlando.

    Hope sdferr is doing OK. Storm surge south of Tampa like a repeat of Ian. Weird part of Milton was the huge tornadoes spawned near Palm Beach with much damage. I’m sure those people being south and east never thought they’d be in the line of fire.

  4. No worries about surge here as in the event what surge we got was about equal to Helene or slightly less even, only to the sidewalk (around 5.5′ above normal if I had to guess — Ian was 4′ higher and up in the house, totalling all the cars in the parking lot). Lost power for mere seconds, which immediately returned; internet service interrupted for around an hour and a half. No tree-fall of note within the community, as Ian had cleared all that business a couple of yrs back. So, all in all, not too bad I’d say.

  6. Physicsguy and sdferr: thanks for reporting in. Relieved (a) that you’re able to connect and (b) that it wasn’t as bad as feared. May it stay that way.

    My Asheville cousin and his wife are looking at spending the winter in CT.

  7. Just heard from Mike (MWP) that Milton spawned the largest outbreak of tornadoes in FL history, mainly south and east of I4 clear over to the east coast. Wellington,FL, west of Palm Beach, of all places, devastated by a huge tornado.

  8. David Horowitz sends Power Line a “column”:

    David Horowitz: Political war

    Many Americans concerned about the fate of our country are asking themselves why the election polls seem so close. The Chinese have a piece of wisdom that suggests an answer: To restore civil sanity and order it is first necessary to call things by their right names. Whether out of politeness or cowardice, Republicans are lame at this.

  9. The tornadoes in the trailing outer bands of the hurricane are not very surprising. That happened here; although Helene went well to the west of Raleigh/Durham, there were tornadoes in our vicinity and an EF3 in Rocky Mount, fifty miles east of here.

  10. Thank you to all who have reported in on the hurricane–your information is so helpful.

    For Neo: I have a question–what is the difference between her jumps and Barishnikov’s leaps?
    Second question with a smile: do you think she has studied with the same teacher as Baryshnikov?
    Third: would you please post a video of a dancer, who has the upper body fluidity you are referring to?
    Thank you.

  12. 1. Very glad to hear that Fla posters are OK. Hang in there – and please consider rebuilding in an area less prone to regular storms… I am one of those who agrees that Federal insurance guarantees in flood/tornado alleys are a terrible mistake..

    2. Regarding the dancer: What’s the deal with those upper-arm doilies?
    I have not seen a version of those that looked good, IMNSHO.
    They are a distraction.

  13. After the recent Iranían barrage of ~180-200 ballistic missiles into Israel, I’m waiting for the Israeli shoe to drop. Everyone knows it”s coming.

    But when?

    Are the Israelis getting their ducks in a row? Are they still debating? Are they in negotiations with the US?

    Or — the possibility I find intriguing — are they timing their response, at least in part, to the US presidential election?

    Trump just came out forthrightly recommending that Israel take out Iran’s nuclear weapon sites now.

    These are deep waters.

  14. Anne:

    Baryshnikov is a man, and men have stronger glute and thigh muscles and a different hip structure which mean their jumps are generally higher and more explosive. They also do different choreography and tend to feature more dramatic and complex jumps.

    Baryshnikov is Latvian and she is Latvian, so they may have had similar training but I very much doubt the same teachers. He is in his mid-70s and she is very young.

    As for others with fluid upper bodies, I’ve featured many dancers on this blog who have that characteristic. Do a search for Fracci or Plisetskaya or Verdy or Farrell, to take some examples. I would also say that any Russian dancer prior to 1980 would have that characteristic.

    Give this a whirl:

  15. It would be a welcome event should Israel take out Iranian nuclear weapons production in some measure, but without very significant external aid, either from the United States (currently governed by an enemy to Israel) or from near neighbors to Iran who might provide transit refueling bases, but which those nations are unlikely to do without ironclad US guarantees of protection against Iranian reprisal attacks, Israel, I think, won’t be now, or simply isn’t now capable of a significant air attack on any Iranian nuclear weapons development site worth the candle. Perhaps we’ll be surprised along with the Iranians when an attack of some other sort occurs, like an “inside” aided ground action, an infiltration sort of thing. But barring surprise of that sort, a conventional air raid of the type against Iraq or Syria just doesn’t seem to be in the cards, unless the US were to stand to in a big way, or the Arab states realize they must take courage and unify with Israel for their own good.

    So, I think it’s going to be an attack of another sort altogether, perhaps against the Iranian leadership, perhaps some other aspect of Iranian power, say missile production or missile battery installations or some other such thing. It’s a damnable shame though, to be sure.

  17. @ sdferr

    I agree that Israel may not have the capability to take out Iranian nuclear weapons production. Have read in the past, of Netanyahu saying that the US has that capability and that they should move soon.

    Read recently that Israel will probably not touch Iran’s nuclear production or their energy (oil fields).

    Iran Update, October 9, 2024

    Anonymous Israeli officials told Axios that the Israeli response will be “significant and will likely include a combination of airstrikes on military targets in Iran and clandestine attacks like the one that killed Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.” The officials appeared to make no mention of striking Iranian energy and nuclear sites. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant similarly said that the Israeli response will be “deadly and surprising,” adding that Iran “won’t understand what happened and how.”

    Meanwhile, Russia has probably already helped Iran with making nuclear bombs, and even sold military equipment to the Houthis.

    Like Harris & Biden – Iran & Russia are now ‘joined at the hip‘…

  18. From the link I see what you mean neo about “upper body fluidity”. Does there tend to be a tradeoff between “fluidity” and the athleticism required for stronger jumps? I looked up Godunova’s age, she is 33 but she looks older to me.

  19. Tampa got lucky again. Milton turned east before reaching Tampa. They’ve got wind damage and rain flooding but little storm surge.

    Our place in Ft Myers, about a mile from the inland waterway and some distance from the creeks, is dry. I don’t have info for what the final storm surge was at Ft Myers Beach but the camera at Margaritaville stopped working at about 4′ of water.

    For reference, Ian brought a 16′ surge across FMB

  20. I don’t believe Israel can take out Iranian nuclear weapon sites entirely — at least not without going nuclear themselves — but they can degrade the Iranian nuclear program by five or six years anyway, which is worth it.

    I’ve read stories that Israel wanted to take out those sites during Obama’s administration, but they were warned that the US would send its Air Force to stop such an attack.

    However, if Israel launched that attack in the next month — while Joe Biden is the lamest duck ever and the barely competent Harris is trying win a difficult election — I doubt that Biden, Harris & Cabal would dare to attack Israeli forces given October 7 and the current circumstances.

    Which is why I ponder the nature and timing of Israel’s expected counterattack against Iran.

  21. FOAF:

    A dancer can definitely have both. That was more common up to about 1980. Plisetskaya definitely had both, for example. Nowadays, however, upper body is indeed sacrificed to even greater athletic demands. But there is no inherent barrier between the two.

  22. Israel, I believe, has not got the equipment to do the job that — in the timely sense — needs doing. Not the long range strategic bombers, not the sufficient number of air to air fuel tankers, not the sufficient number of otherwise needful combat components for a sustained (non-one-off) bombing campaign to amply degrade the dispersed Iranian nuclear weapons program. Would it weren’t so. But unless Israel has a well concealed strategic bomber fleet, with an equally well concealed tanker fleet, their margins of success in even only a one of a kind attack on a single buried Iranian nuclear centrifuge site aren’t good enough to warrant the attempt.

    Steal an airbase somewhere? Um, maybe, but where? How? It just doesn’t seem a practical thing, and surely not if it’s a base that needs holding for a week or weeks to get the job done.

    If the US would help freely, with tanking, with air-defense suppression, it’s conceivable Israel’s air fleet would be sufficient. If the Sauds or the UAE would offer a base for use for a month, ok, that might work. But without these? It’s hard to imagine the tools are at hand.

  23. Maybe Israel’s Pager Division is already thinking outside the box.
    Like these people in WW2.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Operations_Executive

    Their story was told in 2014 in a blockbuster historical book, “Churchill’s Secret Warriors”; it goes by the name “Churchill’s Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare” in the US.

    I thought there was a lot of movie potential in the book when I read it last month.
    So did other people!
    However, I was thinking more of a year or two mini-series, there is THAT much to cover!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_of_Ungentlemanly_Warfare

  24. Outside the box is exactly the ticket. Unimagined, unknown, unprepared for, undefended, unexpected, what’s not to like? Might take time though, right? Or maybe, just maybe, that “time” has already been invested and stored up waiting to be released in a whip-snap of execution. All the better.

  26. Re: “The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare” — the movie

    AesopFan:

    I’ll watch anything Ritchie and more than once, except the Kabalistic “Revolver” which Guy Ritchie made under the influence of Madonna.

    MUGW was good, but not great. I supposed it had a relationship to real history, but not as much as I’m now discovering. Also to Ian Fleming, the author of the James Bond books:
    ____________________________________

    ….Ian Fleming, who had been part of Gubbins’ inner circle during this time, would use Operation Postmaster [launched indirectly by Churchill] as the inspirational basis for his James Bond novels.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_of_Ungentlemanly_Warfare

  27. Is Iran starting to ‘Crack’?

    Iran Update, October 10, 2024

    Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened senior Saudi officials, warning that the Axis of Resistance would attack Saudi energy assets and infrastructure if Saudi Arabia supports an Israeli attack on Iran, according to anonymous Iranian officials speaking to Reuters. Araghchi traveled to Riyadh on October 9 to discuss the October 7 War with senior Saudi officials. Araghchi said that Iran “sent a clear message” to Saudi Arabia that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias or the Houthis could “respond” if Saudi Arabia supports an Israeli attack. Reuters separately reported that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have told the United States that they will deny Israel use of their respective airspaces to attack Iran, citing three unspecified Gulf sources. The sources added that the Gulf states are pushing the United States to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian energy assets or infrastructure because they fear that such an attack could trigger Iranian-backed attacks on them. Araghchi traveled to Doha following his one-day visit to Riyadh and met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al Thani on October 10, presumably to convey a similar warning.

    Time to burn it all down?

  28. When Iran is finally free – and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different.

    –Benjamin Netanyahu
    ______________________

    Whatever Israel has in mind, it will be big, a game-changer.

  30. There are some Democrats open to changing their minds.
    Not enough to outweigh the millions who aren’t, but it’s a start.

    https://nypost.com/2024/10/10/media/progressive-journalist-unleashes-on-liberal-intolerance-that-drove-her-away-from-dem-party/

    “The Young Turks” co-host Ana Kasparian explained what drove her to ditch the Democratic Party while on Jillian Michaels’ “Keeping It Real” podcast on Monday.

    The progressive media host described feeling “politically homeless” over the past few years, as she started seeing an intolerance to debate and the free exchange of ideas as well as an embrace of soft-on-crime policies by the left that she believed were detrimental to society.

    She ripped efforts to “demonize and even dehumanize the other side” while admitting she used to be a person who believed you could not be friends with conservatives or someone who supported former President Trump.

    Both women said they identified with disaffected Democrats who now feel unwelcome in their former party.

    The sidebar lists two similar stories as of this moment, and of course those link to more.

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/democratic-operative-who-ditched-party-after-dnc-blasts-hypocrisy-i-dont-recognize-party-anymore

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/former-california-democrat-turns-republican-kamala-harris-did-nothing-change-schools-california

  31. UPDATE on ‘Lieutenant Dan‘:

    Tale of Two ‘Lieutenant Dans‘ – one challenges God, the other follows God. One helped Forrest Gump make the Bubba Gump Shrimp Company successful—then invests in “some kind of fruit company” (aka Apple Computers) which made Forrest & himself rich for life, the other was poor as a church mouse. One followed The Rule of Law, the other:

    ‘Lieutenant Dan’s’ criminal history revealed

    The one-legged sailor who refused to leave his boat won hearts after 23-year-old student Terrence Concannon shared TikTok videos of his Hurricane Helene survival.

    As his internet fame soared, Malinowski’s convictions for assault and petty crime surfaced, along with his multiple mugshots throughout the years.

    ‘I went to prison, I did jail time, but I can tell you – I am innocent of all the charges!’ The sailor said of his criminal past.

    ‘I’ve been charged with battery, I never even saw the cop. I went to prison for a year. But karma and god are real.

  32. Brilliant fact based films like Ungentlemanly Warfare are the stuff dreams are made of. Reality like exploding pagers and walkie-talkies is leaving espionage fiction in the ashtray of history. Why not forget about fictional agents like Bond and Bourne dashing to save the world from disaster and forget about CIA and MI6 officers reclining on their couches dreaming up espionage scenarios to thrill you. Check out what a real MI6 and CIA secret agent does nowadays. Why not browse through TheBurlingtonFiles website and read about Bill Fairclough’s escapades when he was an active MI6 and CIA agent? The website is rather like an espionage museum without an admission fee … and no adverts. You will soon be immersed in a whole new world which you won’t want to exit.

    After that experience you may not know who to trust so best read Beyond Enkription, the first novel in The Burlington Files series. It’s a noir fact based spy thriller that may shock you. What is interesting is that this book is apparently mandatory reading in some countries’ intelligence agencies’ induction programs. Why? Maybe because the book is not only realistic but has been heralded by those who should know as “being up there with My Silent War by Kim Philby and No Other Choice by George Blake”. It is an enthralling read as long as you don’t expect fictional agents like Ian Fleming’s incredible 007 to save the world or John le Carré’s couch potato yet illustrious Smiley to send you to sleep with his delicate diction, sophisticated syntax and placid plots!

    See https://theburlingtonfiles.org/news_2023_06.07.php and https://theburlingtonfiles.org/news_2022.10.31.php and
    https://theburlingtonfiles.org/news_2024.08.31.php.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

HTML tags allowed in your comment: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

↑