For what it’s worth, Senate polling …
… is within the margin of error:
“That is what I actually tell people because when you look at all these polls, they’re all within the margin of error,” Penn told Fox News. “So we know that the last election was two points, but we also know that turnout for the midterms, if you look at it, typically falls off about 20%.”
Penn estimated that roughly 112 million people will vote this fall, compared to about 150 million in a presidential year. With close to 40 million voters staying home, the winner in a tight race is whichever side gets its people to show up.
“The polls here are neck and neck virtually everywhere,” he said. “So I wouldn’t say that you could pick a winner or a loser now. I think attitudes towards the economy in the next couple of weeks and turnout are going to be the two critical factors.”
Hard to dispute that.
Polls have become less valuable at predicting outcome these days.
I distrust polls, and wonder if some of them this time around are efforts to depress Republican turnout.
IMO the unreliability of polls gives pollsters room to salt the polls heavily against Republicans early on to discourage those voters.
Then the polls mysteriously tighten in the last two weeks and often Republicans win.
— huxley
No question about it, as the election approaches the polling companies take their thumbs off the scales a bit to preserve a little credibility. Right now, the media, the pollsters, the academics, pretty much everybody except open right-wingers are trying to depress GOP enthusiasm and boost Dem turnout.
That said, it’s an off-year election and the public is disgruntled at the situation. So don’t get cocky, as Glenn Reynolds likes to say.
Off-year elections (all elections, really, but esp. off-year elections) are all about turnout, turnout, turnout.
Get to the polls on E-day, even if it’s pouring rain or something.
Well Schumer’s already decided—publicly—that the ONLY way the GOP will win is if they cheat.
So repeat THAT an infinite number of times (with a multitude of variations) and ALSO repeat the plagued polls an infinite number of times, and the Democrats and their odious media accomplices may well succeed in Goebbels-ing the truth…which is, of course, the sacred goal of those pious prevaricators.
Barry-
Yes, way too many of our fellow citizens eat the propaganda MSM as if it were verifiable truth. 90% of our polled journalists admit they are Democrats.
On polling, one should read Capt K’s Corner (Seth Keshel). Basically, little more than propaganda in his estimation. He wrote one of the best books on election fraud, and is, imo, the best voice out there on nitty-gritty of elections.
Just got my Mail In Ballot here in Colorado. It is very long. Several yrs ago I voted in person. I tried to take in a sheet with my voting preference. No Can Do. So, with this very long ballot, I will drop it off tomorrow at the drop box.
Can I add, I voted straight ticket. Except for Judges, I always vote No on their retention. Doesn’t make any difference, they always win.
Several interesting Constitutional Amendments this time. Right to have NG in our homes, law enforcement required to communicate with Feds, Right to hunt and Fish (yes, in CO, some are trying to stop hunting and fishing), and the biggy – changing our Flat tax to Progressive Taxation.
There are other proposals for a number of things. Another attack on the Tabor Amendment (look up the Amendment).
Election Fraud and Voter Fraud
All solved. Nothing to see here.
Just turnout, issues and debates. Yeah, whatever the results and I have no idea who wins what, I will predict there will be election fraud and voter fraud as very, very little has been done about it – ever.
Democrats will claim these are the most secure elections in history, the MSM will echo this nonsense and RINO’s – the vast majority of the GOP will say nothing as they always do.
@dataRepublican and others who are paying attention will point out the fraud and that’s where it will end.
The Los Angeles Mayoral vote was a farce. So now two Communists battle it out – poor L.A.
Kate,
This time around!?!
Some examples just from CNN this morning. Remember all you need is the headline as that’s all most read anyway:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/politics/senate-democrats-crossover-voters
(click for the headline)
On prediction market Kalshi, Mike Rogers loses in MI. I don’t believe it.
(NY) Times-Siena poll
No chance of bias or manipulation there! lol
Still I worry
“Schumer’s already decided—publicly—that the ONLY way the GOP will win is if they cheat.”
Chuck the schmuck may be right, if only to offset Dem cheating. It’s called “projection”.
ME: 2026 midterms not far away. What is the balance on turnout – DEM and/or GOP. I’m thinking GOP turnout will be higher than DEM
Grok AI (snippets):
Claude AI says my “hunch” is off from most “polling points”. Humble me corrected him with: Not a “hunch” it’s a gut feeling, Claude.
Claude AI: ‘Your gut is a data point the polls may be missing, but it’s not what the polls show today.’
Claude AI did offer this:
Unless Vance has already chased off Latino voters, or Trump blows it at the last minute, I’m sticking with my prediction that the GOP holds Congress.
Karmi
I have been viewing with alarm the information like that provided by Grok. I have also observed Trump Exhaustion Syndrome among his supporters.
However as time has passed I see this scenario as possible:
Democrats do well enough this time to spend next two years on endless Trump prosecutions and investigations, most so deranged and so far over the top that they burn out their supporters. Nothing gets done and things like debt reach ever more dangerous and unstable levels.
Trump resigns before the end of his term, blocked everywhere, unable to do anything, showing his age, and providing for Pardon by Vance.
GOP has a contested primary which brings out actual big picture plans for dealing with problems.
Someone like Desantis or Cruz emerges with a new brain trust able to address the huge problems humanity is facing.
The Boomers finally retire and/or die. The actual impact of Super Intelligence becomes much clearer.
Disgust with Democrat craziness sweeps in a totally new DC.. With clear GOP control of both Houses the new High, the recovery from the existing Fourth Turning, actually begins.
My yearning to see Hillary in jail will go unfulfilled.
Illegitimi non carborundum