Brazil will have a runoff election
A surprise result of the Brazilian vote yesterday was that Bolsonaro is ahead, but neither candidate reached 50%:
Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, and Brazil’s incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face off in a runoff Oct. 25 for the top job of Latin America’s powerhouse economy after neither won a majority in Sunday’s vote.
The country’s electoral court in Brasilia said neither the 80-year-old incumbent, seeking his fourth non-consecutive term, nor the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro would garner the majority vote needed for an outright win.
Another 80-year-old – what is it lately with these elderly politicians?
Lula, seeking to be encouraging ahead of an uphill battle to beat Bolsonaro in the runoff, said the result was “unexpected” as he had thought he could win in the first round.
“Tomorrow we start a new campaign,” Lula said. “I am very good in the knockout stage. We will see who has the best plan.”
Is fraud in the offing? Well, there’s this:
No significant fraud has ever been detected since Brazil adopted its electronic voting system in the 1990s.
The Organization of American States’ electoral observation mission reported Sunday that “the voting has been going smoothly and under adequate safety conditions.” Electoral authorities assured that electronic votes are secure and verifiable.
Voters appeared largely confident that the country’s voting system can’t be tampered with.
There’s also this, an article written in May indicating that the public has lost some trust in the system.
Bolsonaro is heavily favored to win the runoff:
Speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi now give Bolsonaro a more than 80% chance of winning the presidency. Before Sunday’s first round results came in, he had about a 60% chance to win. On Polymarket, Bolsonaro’s odds are now 85%, jumping from 63% before the first round count. …
While Bolsonaro was seen as a narrow favorite to win the presidency before Sunday’s first round, he was widely expected to trail the incumbent Lula in that initial tally, according to pre-election polls. This was the case even as Bolsonaro was favored to win a run-off. However, Bolsonaro secured more than 47% of the votes, and beat Lula’s first round total by nearly 2 percentage points.
If Bolsonaro does win, it would be part of a recent swing to the right in several Latin American countries.
Hope he wins. It would help Brazil. And South America would be almost all Conservate lead
I have seen speculation about whether the younger Bolsonaro would end up as a figurehead with his father, once released from prison, actually running the show — but that’s the next step.
SHIREHOME: your English broke down at the end. What did you intend to say?
Related clearly:
…8 elections in Latin America since USAID got defunded
The “far-right” won all 8 of them”—
https://instapundit.com/827207/
…And related, generally:
“Europe is in Trouble”—
https://instapundit.com/827268/
To be sure, that should be “Deep Trouble”.
(Nothing new here, certainly…)
And THIS is the direction that Mark Carney (along with his party) intends to take the country he’s leading…right into a huge hole in the ground.
Which, if the US can somehow preserve its political sanity will cause tremendous security problems because of the long border.
(But of course that’s merely another globalist goal…)
More momentous than Flavio Bolsonaro’s election as president, is the possible removal of Alexandro de Moraes and others as members of the supreme court by the Brazilian senate.
Remember Moraes? He’s the one that engaged in legal warfare against Starlink because Musk had the temerity to support Bolsonaro.
The possibility of their impending removal is coming into focus and they are panicking.
With regard to the Senate aspect of the electoral result, this was the worst result for Lula’s Partido Trabalhador since the establishment of the modern republic.
Similarly to the role the American Supreme court played before trump had the fortuitous timing of being able to fill three vacancies during his first term, the left here has relied on them as’the backup’ means of imposing their favored policies when they are not able to win at the ballot box.
It would also mean the end of the prevailing regime of harsh censorship, like the case of the lady ‘Debora do Batom’ (look her up) that got seven years for smearing a statue with lipstick to write an anti-PT message.
For context, convicted murders are regularly sprung free after the same amount of time by leftist Brazilian judges.
Check out the map – Lula won the Amazon and North and Bolsonaro won the industrial South. Yeah, it’s the Guardian but so what.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/oct/04/brazil-presidential-election-2026-first-round-live-results
Brazil: Yawn, Only State dept people care, and no one can alter the progress of Brazil’s direction.
Cicero, I believe you are too hastily dismissive of a country of 200 million people, consistently half or slightly more of whom want to irrevocably tie the fate of Brazil to the US: economically, culturally, and religiously.
Even if they end up the subservient party in such a relationship, I have heard many say “Better in every regard to be a colony of America than the Chinese communists.”
— neo
Partly, it’s money, at least in the West. Not so long ago, it was typical for a party leader in Congress to step aside if the party suffered a big defeat. But the donors invest a lot of money and effort in a given leader now, and tend to prefer them to stay in place win or lose because of that investment. Thus, Pelosi stayed and stayed and stayed (and is still in charge behind the scenes, I suspect).
Also, there’s a generational dynamic in play, in Strauss and Howe terms, I believe. The boomers are a ‘dominant’ generation and very reluctant to let go of power and status.