A surprise result of the Brazilian vote yesterday was that Bolsonaro is ahead, but neither candidate reached 50%:

Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, and Brazil’s incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face off in a runoff Oct. 25 for the top job of Latin America’s powerhouse economy after neither won a majority in Sunday’s vote.

The country’s electoral court in Brasilia said neither the 80-year-old incumbent, seeking his fourth non-consecutive term, nor the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro would garner the majority vote needed for an outright win.

Another 80-year-old – what is it lately with these elderly politicians?

Lula, seeking to be encouraging ahead of an uphill battle to beat Bolsonaro in the runoff, said the result was “unexpected” as he had thought he could win in the first round.

“Tomorrow we start a new campaign,” Lula said. “I am very good in the knockout stage. We will see who has the best plan.”

Is fraud in the offing? Well, there’s this:

No significant fraud has ever been detected since Brazil adopted its electronic voting system in the 1990s.

The Organization of American States’ electoral observation mission reported Sunday that “the voting has been going smoothly and under adequate safety conditions.” Electoral authorities assured that electronic votes are secure and verifiable.

Voters appeared largely confident that the country’s voting system can’t be tampered with.

There’s also this, an article written in May indicating that the public has lost some trust in the system.

Bolsonaro is heavily favored to win the runoff:

Speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi now give Bolsonaro a more than 80% chance of winning the presidency. Before Sunday’s first round results came in, he had about a 60% chance to win. On Polymarket, Bolsonaro’s odds are now 85%, jumping from 63% before the first round count. …

While Bolsonaro was seen as a narrow favorite to win the presidency before Sunday’s first round, he was widely expected to trail the incumbent Lula in that initial tally, according to pre-election polls. This was the case even as Bolsonaro was favored to win a run-off. However, Bolsonaro secured more than 47% of the votes, and beat Lula’s first round total by nearly 2 percentage points.

If Bolsonaro does win, it would be part of a recent swing to the right in several Latin American countries.