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The Strait of Hormuz — 8 Comments

1. I still do not understand why we don’t just back the UAE’s long standing claim to the islands, and offer to give them transport and air support.

2. Of the commenters here who pointed out the “transponders off” traffic, I think Turtler was the earliest in March of this year:

   However, it seems like the strait is not really “closed” and that the main cost from it comes not from Iran or Iranian proxies and a proven ability to inflict significant damage on allied or neutral shipping, but from commercial costs and insurance speculation. Which Trump has responded to by offering to backfill insurance costs to keep things affordable. As it stands it seems like the strait isn’t physically closed and while traffic has dropped off, ships can and still do run the gauntlet relatively easily by just turning off their transponders during the period of maximum danger, and Iranian hit percentages and the damages inflicted when hit are worrying enough to not be trivial but not decisive (I’ll have to check to see if they’ve even managed to destroy a single tanker since)….

   This is particularly worth noting and why I ask where you’re getting that from because the main way ships are transiting the strait is precisely BY turning off the Transponders during the crossing. Tracking transponders is the main way that most of the “Track how many ships are doing Y” sites or sources count such traffic.

   The general pattern has been while you have a few ships transiting the strait with transponders on, but most turn them off and slip through, usually in clumps when they are gambling there are enough of them transiting that the Mullahs can’t hit or even detect all or most of them, or when there are friendly ships involved.

   Turtler’s a smart guy who’s read a lot, but he does not have secret information and neither does anyone else who said the same things he did. He just had the patience to not accept at face value what he read, and look for facts that contradicted the narrative. And so he was way ahead of everybody.

   That the Strait was never actually closed is one of the reasons oil stayed surprisingly low; another reason that the oil not getting through the Strait at one time is just waiting to show itself later, and the people buying futures know that and expect a glut when things return to normal.

3. I’m glad to hear that crude is getting through. But, global refinery capacity is as big, if not bigger, problem than the amount of crude oil. First capacity in Russia was lost, now Iran.

4. I was reliably assured that oil storage tanks would be empty by July 4.

   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-05-06/us-oil-storage-tanks-to-run-empty-around-july-4-currie-video

   It is now early September and apparently that has not happened. It is true I pay a bit more for gas than I did several months ago, but gas is still cheaper now than it was at various times during the Biden, Obama, and even W administration…..in nominal terms, not even inflation adjusted. It seems to me that much of this hysteria over oil prices is manufactured.

5. https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/jack-mann-veteran-sas-sbs-163613973.html

   Jack Mann dead at 100 ,, A true hardass.

6. The cred of the “mass media” is crud, and aiming at the crapper. Have not COVID19 fraud, the Fauci “science” and Rule by Doctors, the perpetual “World Ending” global warming science, not killed the believability of all sorts of vaunted “expert”? Why, yes. Yes is has.

   SEE my brief example of fake news generation as developed by Dan Bonjino posted in unthreaded.

7. Tommy Jay,

   “I’m glad to hear that crude is getting through. But, global refinery capacity is as big, if not bigger, problem than the amount of crude oil. First capacity in Russia was lost, now Iran.”

   The last general refinery in the US was built in 1976 – 50 years ago.
   We have gone from 250 to 130 in that time period

   Tommy jay is 100% correct.

   Call Elon Musk

8. I also heard very recently that heating fuel oil is roughly the same as diesel in refining terms. Many in the New England area still burn it for home heating and it will cost more.

   It’s sad that Pennsylvania has become a major natural gas producer, and yet the anti-energy policies in the NY state have largely (? partially) prevented nat. gas pipelines into the New England area.

   Co-Pilot

   New England relies on natural gas pipelines from the Marcellus Shale region, with ongoing expansions and proposed projects like the Constitution Pipeline aimed at increasing supply and reliability.

   Current Infrastructure
   New England’s natural gas supply is constrained at several key points, particularly into New York City, Long Island, and the New England region itself. Existing pipelines have been expanded since 2014, increasing capacity by about 51% through larger diameters and new compressor stations, yet high energy costs persist for consumers
   acadiacenter.org

   The region depends heavily on natural gas for electricity generation and heating, making pipeline capacity critical for energy reliability
   WBUR

   Proposed and Planned Projects
   Constitution Pipeline: This 125-mile pipeline would transport gas from Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale to New York, connecting to existing infrastructure and potentially serving New England markets. It is projected to add approximately 650,000 dekatherms per day, enough to meet the daily needs of about 3 million homes in the Northeast. The pipeline is expected to be operational by the third quarter of 2027
   williams.com

   Northeast Supply Enhancement: A shorter pipeline mostly underwater off New Jersey and New York, designed to complement existing infrastructure and improve deliverability to New England
   newhampshirebulletin.com

   Other expansions: Utilities continue to upgrade existing pipelines and compressor stations to increase throughput from the Marcellus Shale, contingent on firm service agreements and regulatory approvals
   northeastgas.org

   Economic and Policy Considerations
   Proponents argue that new pipelines could lower energy prices, improve electricity reliability, and support economic growth in the region
   WBUR

   Critics, including environmental advocates, contend that additional fossil fuel infrastructure may conflict with climate goals and could be a poor long-term investment, suggesting that investments in renewables, battery storage, and transmission lines may be more effective
   acadiacenter.org

   The debate is ongoing, with policymakers weighing cost, reliability, and environmental impacts.

   Conclusion
   New England’s natural gas pipeline network is essential for meeting current energy demand, but capacity constraints and high costs remain challenges. Proposed projects like the Constitution Pipeline and Northeast Supply Enhancement aim to increase supply from the Marcellus Shale, though their economic and environmental benefits are debated. Expansions of existing infrastructure continue to play a key role in ensuring energy reliability and affordability for the region
   WBUR

   “Proposed and Planned Projects” Some of these are projects that could have been completed 30+ years ago, but for NY politics.

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