Planning for the Iran War’s aftermath
We don’t know the extent of the planning for the aftermath of the current Iran operation, either by the US, Israel, or the Iranians. We don’t know what’s going on at present in terms of the destruction of the regime’s lower-down personnel rather than just the weaponry, its infrastructure, and upper echelon of leaders. We don’t know how many defections there have been, or from which regime segment. We don’t know what will happen in terms of negotiations or in terms of surrender, unconditional or otherwise (although I can’t imagine anyone in the regime surrendering unconditionally).
We don’t know how chaotic a transition of some kind will be, or how long-lasting, or how solid. We don’t know how many disruptions – particularly in the oil market – will take place, nor how serious and long-lasting they will be.
I have long assumed that it’s the Israelis who know the most about the ins and outs of Iran’s structure, including the factions who would like to take over in any Day After – their strengths and weaknesses, and their viewpoints. I think it’s a valid assumption of mine. But I don’t know.
Nor do I think there are good analogies from the past. There are huge differences between Iran and Iraq, and Iran and either Germany or Japan in World War II.
I came across this recent article purporting to provide a roadmap of sorts for the aftermath of the war. It’s long and involved, and I don’t know how well it matches plans already in the works or what will happen in the future. But I think it’s worth reading.
An excerpt:
Here we arrive at what is perhaps the most consequential analytical error in the entire strategic discourse: the persistent treatment of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a military organization.
It is not. It is a corporate conglomerate that happens to possess an army, a navy, a missile force, and a nuclear program. …
If the binding agent is economic rather than ideological, then the mechanism of accelerated regime collapse is economic rather than kinetic. A general who controls a $500 million construction portfolio operates on a fundamentally different calculus than a Basij ideologue with nothing to lose. One can be turned; the other can only be neutralized. The United States should be mapping these incentives at the individual commander level and designing calibrated offers: asset protection in exchange for institutional surrender, with amnesty for cooperation, and targeted financial strangulation for resistance. This costs a fraction of what sustained bombing costs, and it strikes directly at the structural ligament that holds the regime together.
And when that ligament snaps, when the Supreme Leader’s authority vanishes entirely, the legal and religious shielding of the bonyad empires evaporates with it.
What follows will not be an orderly audit.
It will be a scramble.
But it seems to me that’s the sort of thing that’s already known and understood, even though we’re not being told any details. Whether it will be carried out as planned is another question. But I don’t see why anyone should assume this sort of thing hasn’t been gamed out by the US and in particular by Israel.
Israel has so far taken the lead in killing the rulers of Iran, based on some sort of deep intelligence. I assume that Israel will take the lead in the aftermath if things go well, and that they have plans based on actual knowledge. But it is certainly possible that I’m being too sanguine. It’s a time of uncertainty.
“To assume makes an ass out of you and me”. Did Oscar say that or was it Felix?
But I assume Hegseth, Trump et al. know what they’re doing.
I’m not happy about the Marine Expeditionary Force being waved at Iran. Putting marines in harm’s way? No. Iran has been devastatingly bombed and we should just sit back and watch it involute.
The military phase really is won, I think. There is no doubt who controls the skies over Iran now. Only sea lanes remain bulnerable.
What’s happening now is how the terms of pacification develop.
For example, the western hemisphere’s Indian-European and African (mostly slaves until the mid 19th century) settlement saw roughly 400 years of back and forth wars or battles. Not until the extreme advantage of cartridge bullets could the Europeans not be overwhelmed or overrun by native peoples.
Therefore, course of pacification is best known to Americans as the Old West, roughly, the period from the 1850s through the Wounded Knee massacre in 1893. So, pacification took several decades after European supremacy was decided in several centuries.
The Old West saw many attempts to socialize Indians into post-nomadic lifestyles. This was most frequently the fault line from which new hostilities arose.
By 1860, San Francisco grew from a neglected Spanish Colonial outpost into the fifth largest city in the US, because of the discovery of Gold at Sutter’s Mill near Sacramento. The Gold Rush accelerated settlement and farming by a burgeoning middle class. Gold Rush yielded to Land Rush.
Similarly, the settlement resisting plains Indians were the hold outs of the time — like Apache Chief Geronimo — led the dead-Enders in resistance, using the empty borderlands to attack North of the border as well as South into Mexico.
Obviously, this protracted period of recurrent war and decades of pacification were long. But, as World War II shows us, the period of pacification and resistance took only years — not decades (save for isolated soldiers of The Empire of Japan, on scattered islands of the vast Pacific.
It took only months to capture Saddam Hussein in the Iraq War nearly 25 years ago. But as the faux forced nation yielded to religious and tribal affiliations, with resistance like IEDs from Iran, took many years to extinguish. Indeed, it is still ongoing at various levels today.
And obviously, today’s massive air war proceeded at a lightning pace compared to then.
The past two weeks have seen apparent fracturing among Iranian leaders with at least three factions. The Old Theocratic guard, the IRGC, and the real or purported “moderates.” This fracturing increases fear and rage against turn-coats, whether real or imagined.
Thus, the recent days campaign hitting IRGC strongholds (including nuke materials and research) in Isfahan by the US fleet of B-52 Bombers may have been a product of moderates selling out the radical ORGC.
YouTuber Vince Dao perceptively notes a change in Iranian behavior. The established pattern of US attacks followed by a furious and threat of counter-assault by Iran against Israel and our Gulf area allies did not happen this time! It is this break that suggests a deepening leadership division, behind the scenes.
Max Afterburner, YouTube mil blogger, suspects that the IRGC could quickly collapse because it is structured like the Mafia, and runs on cash. As money wanes, will theIRGC continue in zeal without compensation? It’s unlikely. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT8wAUVsJgg
Therefore, we’re seeing the consequences of fracturing leadership in real time.
Max covers military assets in play, then at 3m moves to Trump Administration perceptions, and then spends at least 10 minutes explaining Special Forces Ops — from Seal Teams to paratroopers to Army Rangers to Delta Force. max guesstimates that hundreds, on up to one thousand soldiers, are involved in current Special OPs tasking.
So, how does this bear on Trump’s Speech to the Nation tonight? I think it will showcase Trump showing trump over Iraq. That is, preparing Americans to endure substantial losses in order to advance pacification into a critical phase.
If so, and if this is all in play, then plans for post-settlement come to the fore.
Yesterday, on Fox Business show with Larry Kudlow, the 10m discussion centers on following a Post War Venezuelan style Plan to secure a future for Iran, sans all the corruption and exploitation of National oil wealth. In comments, Zoomers are hot to charge Trump with stealing their oil because it was always about a war for oil, instead of comprehending early mentioned terms for monetising oil wealth. SEE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUjVH6yI7aY
I’m thinking Iran is worse off than it seems, but it will take some weeks to play out. The currency will die, banks will not dispense money, water is already short, and food will follow. It is like falling off a cliff, nothing breaks on the way down, but the end is certain. I expect that the DOW and Trump are aware of these facts, but I don’t know how they plan to deal with them. Iran will need a strong leader, I doubt the Shah is that man.
If the command structures of the IRGC and Basij fall apart and they are no longer organized, going concerns, what do the former operators do? Would it be safe to go back on the block?
Were there compounds for them to live in, outside the normal society? Did their families live there? What happens to them–and their families–when the compounds break down?
Can these people allow this to happen? Is fighting to the death a preferable end to trying to slip back into society where they might be found out? Consider how much they are owned by the population.
Would they form–not formally–a reservoir of saboteurs and assassins against trying to fix the country?
Must there be a permanent, well-funded effort to find them and kill them, running on perhaps for years?
My bet is the aftermath will be Good Enough. The mullahs will fall, the military will have more influence than I like and Iranian society will become somewhat more liberal — not a high bar.
My main concern is the ~1000 lbs of enriched uranium, which apparently exists. That needs to be settled.
Neo,
If you haven’t come across Promethean Action yet, it’s worth a look — prometheanaction.com -. They’ve been putting out some of the most insightful analysis of the Iran conflict I’ve seen.
Trump is putting pressure on the status quo and it is revealing their true motives. Here is their latest Youtube. video https://youtu.be/xvs_VsRbwsU?si=VIfemNELlK2akYVr
@Richard Aubrey:If the command structures of the IRGC and Basij fall apart and they are no longer organized, going concerns, what do the former operators do? Would it be safe to go back on the block?
This has happened a lot in history, and in recent history with the fall of the Soviet Union and breakup of Warsaw Pact, and places like Iraq and Rwanda.
In general people find a way to live with each other afterward, often by making examples of the most egregious offenders and leaving the others alone. Sometimes the winning side has nearly exterminated the losing side but that’s not usual.
One example is the Cultural Revolution in China. Everybody knows who did what when, but it’s still not safe to speak fully and freely about it. A few examples were made, and everyone was else left to get along with each other as they can.
Another example is East Germany but it’s a long story and you can look that up. Something like 10% of the population was involved in repressing the other 90%, they couldn’t all be punished. Some examples were made.
The Stuart restoration worked the same way. The handful of Puritans directly involved in killing Charles I were punished harshly, the wealthy and important Puritans got cushy government jobs, and regular people just got along as best they could.
Well, that speech seemed reasonably clear: the US won’t stop until the job is done, the job being the same as it was set out at the inception of this war. Two to three more weeks may be required to finish, depending, it seems, on the Iranians’ decision how much more destruction they are content to tolerate.
Now Trump and Rubio are lowering the boom on our NATO allies for their refusal to even passively support the US efforts to rid the world of Iranian threats.
________________________________
Trump says he’s considering pulling US out of NATO over Iran war stance
President Donald Trump said he is weighing a potential US withdrawal from NATO, citing frustration with allies over their response to the Iran conflict
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-nato-withdrawal-iran-war-allies
________________________________
Trump is right of course and it will be interesting to see how Europe responds. America doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz. Europe does.
However, one may also take this as a signal that Trump is confident about wrapping up the Iran War soon. If he was worried, he probably wouldn’t be pissing off our so-called allies, just in case.
I suppose we could consider the diatribe against the NATO countries for non support as another Trump 3D chess move comparable to the impact on China’s oil supplies and influence in South America with the Venezuela capture of Maduro.
huxley: “If [Trump] was worried, he probably wouldn’t be pissing off our so-called allies, just in case.”
Unfortunately or not, the US has allies in East and Southeast Asia region like Japan and lesser states that depend on oil via from the Straits of Hormuz even more than Europe does.
And typically smaller defense forces, too.
@TJ: the US has allies in East and Southeast Asia region like Japan and lesser states that depend on oil via from the Straits of Hormuz even more than Europe does.
True.
I understand Australia had only a month of oil reserves before the Iran War broke out. The Aussies are looking at a particularly serious oil shock even if Hormuz opens tomorrow.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/fuel-shortage-australia-how-does-emergency-stockpile-compare-to-rest-of-the-world/bb0711c1-11b5-4767-b349-fd46344a8b99
Niketas,
Good history. But I’d suggest a difference in degree may result, in this case, in a difference in kind.
What Iran did to those who objected was insanely, obscenely different from some of the examples you provided, both in number and in awfulness.
The communist examples were older, the worst of repression having been in some kind of history of decades. ONe might say it ran down in awfulness. To a certain extent, they were history (however close) and not immediate experience.
Yet we have in Iran, in the last year, some unknown number of young women undergoing mass rape, torture, and disfigurement by gunshot or acid for the crime of showing their hair. And that was only a fraction of the issues the regime thought worthy of unspeakable torment. And that was yesterday.
The real big shot, I think it was before the shooting started, was quoted as saying a young woman slated for execution for some kind of protest, should be raped first so she wouldn’t go to heaven. No doubt she was, with results different from those wished on her, but it’s the thought that counts. Multiply by a million per…what? Decade?
It is said that 80%-90% of Iran’s population is Persian. To the extent that the oppressors, down to mid-level noncoms, are not, folding back into decent society would be even more difficult. Unless the two populations separate themselves.
All of which said, a number of the true believers are True Believers, with skewed views of their duty in life and their rewards afterwards (see Islam)and may even be “twelvers” whose ideas of their duty may not be a new and peacefully integrated society where everybody gets along just like Trump said they should.
@Richard Aubrey:What Iran did to those who objected was insanely, obscenely different from some of the examples you provided, both in number and in awfulness.
No. For the Cultural Revolution I have living relatives who can speak to it. You cannot imagine. And then you’ve got Rwanda. There’s nothing like that in Iran.
It is said that 80%-90% of Iran’s population is Persian. To the extent that the oppressors, down to mid-level noncoms, are not…
They’re just as “Persian”. I’m not sure if you think “Persian” is not Muslim, but the vast majority of ethnic Persians are Muslim. Iran generally is 95% Shia. The clerics and the IGRC include minorities but are not in general non-Persian. Iran is about 60% ethnic Persian (Fars), then there’s 10% Kurds, 20% various flavors of Turk, and then a bunch of smaller groups like Arabs, Assyrians, etc. The non-Shia people in Iran are found mostly among the ethnic minorities, though there is a small percentage of Zoroastrian Persians.
All of which said, a number of the true believers are True Believers, with skewed views of their duty in life and their rewards afterwards
Like anywhere else, this is for the little people. Until very recently the clerics could expect to die in bed in their 80s and 90s. When they needed minesweepers in the war with Iraq they used other people’s kids, they didn’t seek martyrdom themselves.
(see Islam)
Muslims on our side are dying for us during this war, you know. There’s no Iranian missiles hitting US cities.
may even be “twelvers”
Zohrani Mamdani is a Twelver. Have you seen his wife? They met on Hinge.
Yes, Iran is comprised of diverse groups but I believe that there are more ethnic Azeris in Iran than ethnic Persians.
Most of the Azeris live in northern Iran, understandably.
Several sources put the shares thus:
==
61%: Persian
16%: Azeri
10%: Kurd
==
Single digit shares are attributed to the Lurs, Gilaks, Mazanderanis, Balochs, Arabs, &c. I believe the first three on this list speak languages proximate to Farsi.
There are Muslims and Muslims. The ethnic differences don’t need to be religious. Among other things, the Twelvers are a minority and if they are out of office, whatever that “office looks like, their ability to project their vision and their ability to protect themselves against other Muslim views is limited.
Still, the Cultural Revolution was some time ago, which is different from being last month. You don’t need to hear about this from older relatives.
But…
https://www.reddit.com/r/azerbaijan/comments/1leh8gv/population_of_azerbaijanis_in_iran_is_not_17_the/
…why would the Iranian government want to low-ball the percentage of Azeris in Iran?
(I mean they’re always reliable on everything else…aren’t they?)