Regime change maybe
There are terrible regimes all over the world. Most of them are in nations that confine the suffering to their own people. It’s sad, but we’re not about to start military action to change anything. The risks are too high, the costs too expensive, and the possible benefits to us too remote.
After 9/11, we realized that some people in far-off places wished to hurt us very badly and had actually done so. The rationale for invading Afghanistan was not the Taliban themselves, although they were theocratic tyrants. It was that they harbored al Qaeda and would not surrender them. We invaded but failed to get Bin Laden for a long time, and somehow the mission turned into regime change. However, attempting regime change made sense in at least one way: without getting rid of the Taliban government, wouldn’t the same thing just repeat itself?
Afghanistan proved very resistant to fundamental change. One big reason was cultural, although it wasn’t the only reason. To effect that sort of change was probably impossible, and it was certainly impossible without an enormous and long expenditure of time, money, and troops. We finally gave up, in particularly ignominious and costly fashion under Biden (or his controllers).
Iraq was somewhat different. There was a strongman tyrant who seemed to be developing nuclear weapons in defiance of an agreement for inspections post-Gulf War. It apparently was a pretense of Saddam Hussein’s, although we have argued about what the US knew and didn’t know in the leadup to the war. The Iraqi people were more sophisticated than those in Afghanistan (a low bar) and some pundits in the US argued that there was more appetite for democracy there and that it would be successful and Iraq would become an ally. Again, we can argue – and we certainly have – about to what extent the war had achieved at least some elements of success before Obama’s pull out, but I don’t think we would disagree about the fact that it left the vast majority of Americans on both sides with a strong aversion to wars with “boot on the ground” in order to effect regime change.
Which brings us to Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran. And Trump.
Trump had criticized the Iraq War greatly. So far, he seems to have approached things differently. He determined that Venezuela not only was headed by a tyrant, but by one that hadn’t been properly elected, and – this point is key – the regime was a sort of linchpin in a current axis of evil.
Trump’s approach to Venezuela was and is creative; I don’t need to describe it here except to say it involved a single audacious raid which brought Maduro here to stand trial, and a way to make his successor dance to our tune, for now. The plan is also to institute fair elections that will lead to better things for the people there, but for now that’s not happening. It has led, however, to a domino effect that has effected the energy supply of other problematic countries.
In Cuba, nothing new seems to have been done except the disruption of Venezuelan oil shipments, but this may be having the desired effect on the rulers of a country that was already having severe economic problems:
Cuban President Miguel Di?az-Canel on March 13 confirmed his government is holding talks with the Trump administration, in the latest sign that the communist-run nation is open to signing a possible historic economic deal with the United States.
Di?az-Canel made the announcement in a video broadcast on national television and he also spoke in a subsequent press conference, where he addressed Cuba’s energy needs amid a U.S. oil blockade, saying no fuel has entered Cuba in three months. He said the talks with the U.S. have reached initial phases only.
Iran is very different. The mullahs have been at war with us for 47 years and shout “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!” It’s an enormous country under the rule of clerics who believe it’s their duty to start an Armageddon that will end with their triumph over the Muslim world and ultimately the rest of the world, and the coming of the Mahdi (I wrote about this belief system in this post). They are deadly serious about this.
Trump has decided they were too close to obtaining weapons that could further hurt Israel, Europe, and the US, and that something had to be done about this. He worked alongside Israel to degrade some of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and air defense system last summer, but some capacity remained and the mullahs got right back on that nuclear/ballistic horse. Negotiations to change this situation failed completely when the mullahs made it clear they would abandon none of their goals.
And so the joint US/Israel air campaign began. A huge number of Iran’s regime leaders have been killed – with no US boots on the ground – but there are others willing, for now, to take their place. Trump says their weapons, launchers, and nuclear capacity have been further degraded. We could declare victory and leave – except for the regime change question. If the mullahs stay in place, the Iranian people will continue to suffer, but the leaders will also set about trying to re-arm. Again and again, like some Terminator horror movie. It will take longer than before, and they are weaker and poorer than before. But their belief system does not allow them to be practical and give up.
Is regime change therefore necessary? Is it possible? What would effect it? I’m not going to tackle that in this post, which is already long enough. But I think everyone agrees that if it could happen and something better were in place, it would be a good thing.
Another thing on which we can probably agree is that Iran is a big country with a somewhat decentralized system of tyranny in which the IRGC and the Basij (their enforcers) are the main mechanism by which the crackdown on the Iranian people is accomplished. These two entities must be defanged, and at the moment there are many reports that a program of drone attacks is starting to do that. I hope they’re true, because this is of the utmost importance in further weakening the regime:
WILD: The predicted “future” came within 24 hours. This is Israeli Air Force footage of drones and jets blowing up Basij checkpoints all around Tehran today, based on tips called in by Iranian citizens. A revolution with air support against a regime with no air defence. https://t.co/SZNn3mseMU pic.twitter.com/JRvRNUWZQP
— Saul Sadka (@Saul_Sadka) March 13, 2026
“Is regime change therefore necessary?”
Trump said it was, but probably not. He will have an optics problem regardless.
“Is it possible?”
Now that’s more important question, and with or without drones I think the answer is no without boots on the ground which will be unacceptable to many.
Unwillin; Barkis:
Trump always has an optics problem.
But when did he say regime change was necessary? I heard him say it was desirable. There’s a difference.
I don’t think we have a clue what Israel in particular has up its sleeve in Iran. Israel also has operatives already there. I would not underestimate Israel’s capacities.
We will not be invading Iran. But there may be some very small operations, such as one to find the nuclear material stash and do something about that.
Can Kasapoglu makes a good case that in both practical and strictly definitional senses Iran has already had a regime change (see min. 28:28). “The Military Balance With Iran: A Strategic Assessment“, (58:19 total): https://youtu.be/i6wQVsBMbQo
When 30,000-40,000 citizens are willing to rise up and protest against a regime and then be murdered, I’d say that regime has a problem.
Throw in one of the most devastating bombing campaigns in history resulting in the annihilation of a nation’s top leadership, air force, navy and weapons manufacturing, it becomes much more of a problem.
The Iranian economy was already devastated. Likewise the environment, such that Iranians have problems securing drinking water and the regime plans to relocate its capital to another city hundreds of miles away on that account.
The US and Israel are dead set against the regime and will swoop in for more bombing if necessary. They are no doubt supporting regime opposition in other ways. The current Axis of Evil is offering Iran little more support than strong language.
Toto, I’ve a feeling we aren’t in Afghanistan or Iraq anymore.
I think after the first afghan intervention, when we left the successor regime of mohaddi and shah massoud, to the tender mercies of the ISI’s proxies, one decided one could not happen again, had massoud and not karzai had been in charge, would they have fared better, it’s hard to say, Steve Coll’s Directorate S,
which takes us from the lead up to the intervention till 2017, in the post script, suggests that it was hard, because ubl’s influence but also a decade and a half of wat, that sowed the seeds of the Taliban, some of karzai’s helpers, to the Afghan treasury, the warlords, were not net benefits, to be charitable, the resources that were diverted to Iraq, which deprived Afghanistan of oxygen, probably had something to do with it,
A similar thing happened with Iraq, this is a large reason this punitive expedition has proceeded rather gingerly, because de baathification, which needed to happen, probably not the way it did it had a similar iomact to the Shock Therapy directed not to say inflicted, at Russian and similar nations in Central Asia, by the likes of Summers and Sachs, the former has found himself in some trouble, the latter has reinvented himseelf in troublesome ways,
in this light, the transition in Venezuela has been slow and laborious trying to work around the nodes like Cabello, Aissani and other figures of the regime that has plundered the country for nearly 30 years, some liberalization of political and economic sphere has occurred,
can one dare to hope things will turn out better, one can, even though hope over experience, as mentioned above, is a hard slog
this text, is not as comprehensive as christina lamb’s travel log, chronicle, I referenced back during the incident with the Afghan dead ender in some ways,
https://www.amazon.com/Directorate-C-I-Americas-Afghanistan-Pakistan/dp/1594204586
how to reform the system, and not destroy it, creating a power vaccuum, which can be dangerous, the instance in Libya, did not suggest we learned many lessons, as it effectively cleaved the country, with Turkish and Qatari proxies to the West and the Egyptian Saudi ones to the East, with General Hafter, as General Asisi, an imperfect instrument, seems to recovered some of Nasser’s status,
https://x.com/wretchardthecat/status/2032422624933117977
Why did the USSR collapse?
There is a lot of inside Kremlin baseball on that score, but it seems to me that enough people in the USSR just lost faith in the system. Combined with economic stagnation.
By those standards Iran is well on the way to regime change.
While the US and Israel throw gasoline on the fire.
We are sending Marines to the Theater. 5K I think. We will just have to wait and see.
This is an interesting post commenting on the latest developments in Iran from a former US Army officer who served in Iraq and I believe possibly Afghanistan. He also seems reasonably well plugged in to current events, as well.
https://grimbeorn.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-progress-in-iran.html
He mentions the possibility of various ethnic uprisings, Kurds in the northwest; the Balochi in the southeast; the Azeri (I’m not familiar with the last group named). I’ve seen reports the IDF and US are now hitting IRCG depots and army bases which would hold the heavy units necessary to put down those kind of revolts if they get going … maybe the Marines are there to hold a limited perimeter to enable supplies to flow to those groups.
President Trump said that Kharg Island (Iran’s oil export hub in the Persian Gulf) got bombed.
No oil exports to China now. Expect oil prices to spike, but Iran to immediately go broke, and much more internal Iranian disruptions.
Who will wail the loudest? The Democrats.
Re Cuba Libre! “The Cuban dictator, Miguel Díaz-Canel, has just AUTHORISED the entry of FBI agents on the island in a completely unprecedented move”!
Why the FIB? Sorting out the culpable from the innocent? Or to vet them for Golden Parachutes to Russia? Or else where? https://instapundit.com/782441/#disqus_thread
Re om. Yes, Kharg Island’s military defences got whacked — not the oil producing parts. Wanna bet the 2,500 to 5,00 incoming Marines don’t go to the Straits of Hormuz? But instead to secure income for new Iranian government via Kharg? MORE https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/trump-says-centcom-conducted-large-bombing-raid-key-iran-oil-export-hub
THIS MUCH LONGER Kharg Island story, up online this evening, sports a pre-war satellite photo of an oil port terminal as well as extensive tank storage. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/trump-says-us-obliterated-military-targets-on-irans-kharg-island-but-didnt-wipe-out-oil-infrastructure.html
A cautionary view of changing regimes, with historical examples from South America.
https://www.racket.news/p/what-happens-after-you-decapitate
@ miguel – worth looking at the tweet by wretchard because of the one he is replying to. This war is going so fast, pundit prophecies given in the morning are proven or smashed by the end of supper.
I believe OIF stands for Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Of course, that was our MSM dutifully following orders to sink any positive information that might reflect well on Bush or Republicans, as they did in Vietnam during Nixon’s tenure.
An AI prompt could no doubt gin up positive “news stories” with the position that Al Gore was president at the time.
@ Christopher B > thanks for the link to Grim. He had an interesting “war story” at the end of his musings on the Iran war (yes, it is a war).
*On the risk factor, see Neo’s Roundup post, where #2 noted that the Israelis carefully vet the call against their own information base, which we know is massive and finely detailed. I suppose that is so they don’t fall prey to the maneuvers of an Iranian-regime operation to call in protesters’ locations.
See BlueLivesMatter, the organization supporting ICE by not too subtle means.
https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/01/23/fafo-anti-ice-crazies-show-up-at-biker-bar-get-the-worst-of-it-n4948662
“Toto, I’ve a feeling we aren’t in Afghanistan or Iraq anymore”.
Huxley, I badly want that to be true and I think it might be. So what’s different this time vs 20+ years ago in Iraq? The Bush administration showed some deference to international bodies and “rules” and worries of procedures that had the effect of a stalemate, or at least allowing the loser to avoid annihilation. And start another war soon enough.
I don’t think Trump/US/Hegseth/Israel are at all encumbered by such considerations. It might be that simple.
Various notes:
Obama’s efforts notwithstanding, Iraq’s government is a parliamentary federal republic built on the 2005 constitution. That’s a regime change in spades. So it worked, despite a setback when we had to redo it. They are reasonably liberal by standards of the region and fighting off ISIS with out help.
Resisting the urge to go boldface all caps; It freaking worked.
Political scientists use the term “nation state”. That presumes two things. One is a legally constituted state with a central government, recognized internationally, at least nominally in charge of and responsible for all of its territory, recognized borders. The other, “nation”, implies shared cultures, languages, agreed-upon history. The two are not necessarily found together. Nigeria is a state, including several tribes of different cultures and histories who fight each other and the central government. At best, it’s a state containing several nations.
The, not very, semi-autonomous Native American tribes within the US might be considered separate nations…or not.
So I guess regime change, like pretty much everything beyond fourth-grade arithmetic, depends on definition.
At one end we convert a nasty bunch from those making trouble abroad to a nasty bunch, possibly the same guys, who stay home. That might be enforced by the occasional bomb on the relevant head.
Or we might get to a Norman Rockwell version of, in current circumstances, Islamic governance.
Or someplace in between.
To the extent the latter case can be made, a certain portion of the population has to appreciated it and want to participate There are, apparently, numerous montages of the Old Days, post WW II, photos of capitols of Muslim countries day to day. It’s always attractive young women in dresses, knee length, heels, blouses, big smiles, free hair. The latest I saw was college women in, for heaven’s sake, Kabul in 1972.
The big cities could be, if allowed, more like that today, but that would require regime change. What happens out in the hills would be different and couldn’t be forcibly converted. But as long as the big cities were protected, and travel as well, the westernization might spread. The more egregious offenses n the hills cold be punished egregiously, perhaps, if the mechanisms to do so could be maintained. Meantime, the temptations might sell themselves to the hillbillies. This would be a heck of an effort, but the opportunities it provides would attract at least some international interest; foreign professors in various disciplines at the university, for example. VIctoria’s Secret (I kid, I thnk). And the relevant embassies.
And efforts to change circumstances in what might be called “rogue” regimes which seem to be breaking out, nuclear or conventional aggression, should not be called “regime change” in order to dismiss their possibilities of success. You can always bomb a nuke facility without a single boot on the ground.
You’ll note the footage of the IDF’s efforts against Basij bases are artificially dramatic. First, the instantaneous shock of the initial explosion. Then the slo-mo expansion of the shock wave and its detritus.
Those are not particularly big munitions. Might be the equivalent of our 81mm mortar round, or less, which weighs maybe ten pounds. This demonstrates extreme confidence in the accuracy of the weapon, a confidence which is obviously merited. That close a hit and you don’t need much more than a cherry bomb. Which means the guys on the ground are not going to wonder if they should call for another down the block. Or not. Also, the Basij crew are going to be looking over their shoulders for the next sure thing.
Following on to Richard Aubrey’s points, one thing to keep in mind is thinking that we were “nation building” Germany and Japan post-WWII is fundamentally mistaken. We were REbuilding nations that had existed as cohesive units for at least a century, and in some form or another for much longer than that. They were also both at least fundamentally practiced in Western thought, as well. Germany had a more universal franchise in 1914 than the United Kingdom, and Japan had been adopting Western technology and values since the Meiji Restoration of 1868.
Christopher B.
Thanks for the reference. However, there were orientation films for occupation troops and those provide a more nuanced look
You tube has “Your Job in Gernany”. The twelve-minute one is the complete version. “Our Job in Japan” has the same goal but a completely different voice, based on the view of the recent histories of the two countries.
A lot looks at the immediate post-war views of the cultures of the two countries.
Christopher B:
For that matter, Iran has been a nation for thousands of years (and “Iran” was the original name, with “Persia” coming somewhat later). It had an experience of modernity, too, under the Shah. It has close to 100% literacy.
Related:
“CUBA LIBRÉ!”
https://instapundit.com/782624/
Soon to be “NY LIBRÉ”?
Re: Cuba Libre
Here’s one way to do it:
_______________________________
* Fill a glass with ice and add rum.
* Squeeze in the lime juice.
* Pour cola until the drink is topped off. Give it a stir.
* Garnish with lime wheels or a lime wedge.
https://abeautifulmess.com/cube-libre/
_______________________________
So, just a rum and coke with lime. I went through a rum and coke phase. I’m sure a bit o’ lime wouldn’t have hurt.
@ Richard Aubrey > “The big cities could be, if allowed, more like that today, but that would require regime change. What happens out in the hills would be different and couldn’t be forcibly converted. But as long as the big cities were protected, and travel as well, the westernization might spread. The more egregious offenses n the hills cold be punished egregiously, perhaps, if the mechanisms to do so could be maintained. Meantime, the temptations might sell themselves to the hillbillies. This would be a heck of an effort, but the opportunities it provides would attract at least some international interest; ”
That pretty much describes the overall plot arc of the SF series by Lois McMaster Bujold featuring Miles Vorkosigan. The bolded section is specifically addressed in her novella, “Mountains of Mourning,” which I reread earlier this month.
I’m binge-reading the whole series (slowly, with a magnifying glass), so I can move forward with the project of clearing my bookshelves, one favorite at a time.
Sorry to hear you still have some vision problems, AesopFan. I hope it will soon clear up.
Aesop
Punishing a robber is one of the risks of the trade.
Punishing a jihadi, or amateur terrorist.to-be, is A CRIME AGAINST ALLAH AND ISLAM, and the whole town is inflamed,
Comes to mind that the greater the difference in the ratio of first-cousin marriage between city and country, the greater the advantage of the city in civilized pursuit
and the greater the facility with the recruiting mindless terrorists in the country.
AesopFan:
Thanks for the DataRepublican link! That was the best one-stop shopping on the Iran War I’ve seen.
For those who missed it:
https://datarepublican.substack.com/p/data-analysis-of-the-state-of-the
My favorite bit:
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China is losing 17 million barrels per day of discounted iranian oil and faces secondarysanctions
China bought approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports at sanction-discount prices. That supply is gone. Higher global oil prices hit China’s economy directly. The February 2026 Executive Order imposes tariffs on any country purchasing Iranian oil — aimed directly at Chinese “teapot” refineries in Shandong Province. The US simultaneously disrupted both of China’s discounted petro-state suppliers (Iran and Venezuela). China is watching US military capabilities through its satellites and reading the Taiwan signal.
https://datarepublican.substack.com/i/190345817/fact-7-china-is-losing-17-million-barrels-per-day-of-discounted-iranian-oil-and-faces-secondary-sanctions