Losing the shutdown standoff, winning the blame game
In an article entitled “Why Trump’s Losing the Shutdown Fight—
A simple political rule of thumb: Never hold the government hostage for anything, even if it’s a cherished campaign promise,” Josh Kraushaar writes;
Here’s a simple, time-tested rule of politics: The party that’s divided is the one that’s going to lose a legislative showdown. That lesson should be growing clearer for Republicans…
The GOP has long been more divided than the Democrats, and probably always will be. There are many reasons for that (too numerous to go into in this post), but I think it’s far less of a definitive issue than this one: the party that’s labeled by the MSM as being to blame is most likely to lose a legislative showdown in the minds of the public, because it’s been labeled as being responsible and just plain mean, and that party is the GOP. So whatever the situation and whatever the issue, whichever party controls which branch of government, the GOP is the culprit.
That’s pretty hard to counter—although there’s no question that the divisions in the GOP don’t help at all.
Here’s how I see it. Funding the wall is something Trump must accomplish to save his political life because without it many of his supporters will desert him. Or, alternatively, if he fails to accomplish it, he must at the very least be seen by supporters as having fiercely fought to build the wall and to only have been stopped by the Democrats combined with RINOesque NeverTrumpers.
The Democrats have three big reasons to stand firm as well. The first is the aforementioned support of the MSM and the knowledge that the GOP and/or Trump will be blamed for a shutdown, so the Democrats believe they hold a winning hand even if the partial shutdown continues. Therefore they have no real incentive to end it, just in the tactical sense.
The second is that they really really really don’t want the wall built because they would like as many illegal immigrants to come as possible, because the assumption by Democrats is that the vast majority of the children of those arrivals who are subsequently born in this country will become Democrats (it’s indeed possible that this presumption is correct).
Third but far from least is the fact that the Democrats want Trump to lose not only the shutdown battle but the 2020 election, and they know that keeping him from building the wall is a vital part of that effort. If they can stop him and his base deserts him, they are home free no matter what person they nominate and how far to the left that candidate is.
Or so they believe.
I am intrigued by Trump’s planned trip to the border tomorrow, to be followed by a prime-time speech of some kind. Combined with speculation about declaring a national emergency and using military funds to build the wall, perhaps Trump is planning an end-around Congress. It will probably be a legal one, not like Obama’s illegal DACA.
Kate:
I can just about guarantee that whatever he decides to do it will be declared illegal, unconstitutional, and ground for impeachment by the Democrats.
Yes the Dems have pretty much controlled the political negotiation process for a long time, but they have mastered a game that requires an acquiescent Republican party. The Republican party might still be such a party**, but the president is an outsider who does not play by those negotiating rules.
Trumps most recent example of this in is his recent meeting (re: the border wall) with Pelosi and Schumer where he referred to her Catholicism and pointed out that the Vatican is a walled city; her reponse was reportedly: let’s change the subject.
Anytime one gets a Dem/progressive/leftist to change the subject, walk away, or reduce themselves to ad hominem arguments, you know they’re losing.
Now, I don’t know how this current standoff will be resolved, but as Don Surber’s wise admonition goes, “Do not bet against Donald John Trump.”
**That, too, might be changing, thus contributing to the division that Neo mentions.
Yes, the GOP, and Trump, will be blamed, ad nauseum by the Dem press for the shutdown.
But Trump, on twitter (to 53 million followers of his tweets), will be blaming the Dems. Plus calling the Dem media Fake News.
“The Fake News Media in our Country is the real Opposition Party. It is truly the Enemy of the People! We must bring honesty back to journalism and reporting!”
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1082268365081767936
I’m very much NOT sure that the Dem media can “win” the Wall based shutdown, and Trump is fighting against … the real Oppo Party. The Reps who lost in the House are now already gone. 2020 is so far away, few voters then will really be swayed now. For both sides, this is battlefield prep — but it’s actually the start of the 2020 campaign.
He’s trying to set up, as usual, a win-win situation for himself, plus provide some out for Dems willing to give him enough to call it a win… (Perhaps the DREAMers?)
{My new 2018 Christmas smile}
“I can just about guarantee that whatever he decides to do it will be declared illegal, unconstitutional, and ground for impeachment by the Democrats.” [Neo @ 3:39]
One would need be stone dead to not draw that conclusion from the activity of the past two years. I would like to think that Trump already knows this and that it will be “priced into” any negotiation or solution that results.
We shall see.
There’s at least one Congressional Democrat who has publicly admitted that Trump has the authority to declare an emergency at the border. Yes, of course most of the Dems will foam at the mouth about anything Trump does and pretend it’s illegal, etc.
I would be extremely disappointed if Senate Republicans voted to convict on impeachment charges for actions which were, in fact, legal and within presidential authority. I don’t think even Romney is that clueless.
Trump took ownership of the shutdown, so all the other comments on this are totally wacko unreal…
he is not trying to avoid it
he is taking the responsibility
he is not calling it a schumer anything
so why you guys even discussing the blame game?
crazy distracted people…
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2018/dec/11/donald-trump-government-shut-down-chuck-schumer-white-house-video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=-1q5vjuX_Bc
“I will take the mantle,” Mr. Trump told the two Democratic leaders in the Oval Office, saying he would proudly close parts of the executive branch if he did not get his way. “I’m not going to blame you for it,” he continued. “The last time you shut it down, it didn’t work. I will take the mantle of shutting down, and I’m going to shut it down for border security.”
sheesh..
here, entertain on this
Evolution Of Pete Burns – author of you spin me right round baby
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzunMOo9vS4
personally you should check out the WWIII scenario around the paracel islands
when i warned about this to start discussion, they were empty
now they ahve military bases, and are threatening to shoot ships and nuclear war
why wait so long to discuss something till nuclear war is a fait accompli
or ya think they gonna dismanle things, say sorry here japan your land back?
vietnam, indonesia, japan, taiwan, singapore, brunai, and more…
all are going to fight over it with the US being the leader on it
too bad we let the concrete set and did not use our place to discuss something in terms of prevention rather than reaction
NEWS: World ends today, details tomorrow…
Stay the course Mr. President. Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes. Illegal immigration is being employed by the democrats to disenfranchise Americans. It has become a national security threat. Regain control of our borders or we will continue to be dragged down the path to “politics by ‘other’ means”.
“the ascendant Extreme Leftists don’t seem to realize that every day they are sawing through the branch upon which they sit.” commenter Kinuachdrach
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Art,
China is not going to start a nuclear war over the Paracel Islands.
China has been establishing the conditions where to stop them we risk starting a conventional war that could easily escalate into a nuclear war. They’re counting on the US backing down.
What’s at stake is freedom of navigation of the seas, one of the pillars upon which liberty itself rests, which is what we sacrifice if we back down.
China wants de facto control over Asia. The nature of totalitarians is that they can only have enough… when they have control over everything. So China will not be permanently satisfied with regional dominance.
“Si vis pacem, para bellum” (“If you want peace, prepare for war”)
Of course, being prepared for war is futile without the willingness to go to war. Which is what we have to impress upon the ChiComs. But given America’s divide, an unlikely proposition. A condition that the ChiComs have to be aware of and why they’re betting that when all is said and done, we’ll roll over.
No society can retain liberty, when that society is unwilling to fight for it.
I see djt as the one holding the winning hand. Despite the msm, more people everyday realize the threat illegal ‘immigration’ poses, and the costs to our criminal justice, education, welfare, and medical systems. Trump will not back down.
There are a lot of estimates of the cost to taxpayers of illegal immigration. The figures range from $15 billion/year on the low end to $135 billion on the high end. No one thinks that illegal immigration doesn’t cost our education, law enforcement, legal, welfare, and medical systems a lot of money that wouldn’t be necessary if we didn’t have millions of illegal immigrants in the country. A Targeted wall system can reduce the flow of illegals to a manageable number. (In the months of October and November over 100,00 illegals were apprehended, processed, and released into the country to await their court hearings. Most will stay for the rest of their lives. Not a manageable number.) If we could reduce the costs to our systems of $5 billion a year with a wall system, would it not be well worth spending $5 billion?
But I’m talking common sense. Common sense has nothing to do with the shutdown. It is 100% politics. It is as if we are watching two groups of gladiators in an arena. It is all about power and winning. The progressives have chosen this issue to take Trump down. May he stay strong and may we, who believe in the principles of a sovereign nation with border controls, stand behind him and let the politicians of all parties know that we want the border under control.
Call them. Write them. Make your voices heard.
There is a solution, but it is not PC. This is an invasion, these invaders, like any other invasion must be cut down without remorse or mercy. My give a damn about the conditions in Centeral America never existed.
Yeah, remember the last time the dastardly Republicans shut down the government? That was way back in 2013. The next election? Senate R+9, House R+13.
Whatever you do, don’t throw me into that briar patch.
Roy lofquist:
Whatever you do, don’t throw me into that briar patch.
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Bingo – and a great reference!
Everything Trump does brings more silenced normies and fence-sitters out of the woodwork. Every attempt by the Left to play the old slogans reminds people what Trump is fighting and what the Left will do to them. Same thing happened with Kavanaugh – every married woman or mother of a son got a completely different message than the Left intended.
This is how the Soviet union collapsed. Once Glasnost shattered the illusion of widespread agreement with the Party line, more and more people defied their rulers.
Jiu jitsu.