Selling Iran the rope
A quote from Lenin that’s been running through my head, post Iran deal:
“The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.”
Several commenters here have pointed out the ramifications of the Iran deal, particularly to Europe. Europe was chomping at the bit to get access to trade with Iran, and for many Europeans sticking it to Israel into the bargain would be a feature, not a bug.
Russia was already about to trade with Iran, by the way, as announced in April. But the reason Russia was going to do this was that the Iran deal was already in the offing, and Russia knew sanctions would be lifted and wanted to get the jump on the action before the West did. The missiles Russia is selling Iran are defensive in nature only, but:
…[T]he Kremlin is lifting a ban on selling a powerful air defense system to Iran that would render an airstrike on Tehran’s nuclear weapons facilities nearly impossible.
The delivery of the new weapon, called the Almaz-Antei S-300PMU-1””known as the SA-20 Gargoyle in NATO parlance””would effectively force the U.S. to rely on its small fleet of stealth aircraft to strike targets inside Iran in case the mullahs make a dash for the bomb. But even those aircraft might have a difficult time.
So, the diplomatic machinations of the Obama administration have made it impossible for most nations to attack Iran’s weapons facilities, and has made it very difficult even for us to do so. Nice.
And please recall that this was a missile system that, in Obama’s first term, he had fought against letting Russia give to Iran:
The U.S. government has lobbied Russia hard for years to prevent the sale of the S-300 to Iran. In 2010, convincing Putin to suspend the sale of the S-300 to Iran was heralded as a major foreign policy coup by the Obama administration. In many ways, it was one of the central achievements of the so-called reset in relations with Moscow, said Heather Conley, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Those were the days, my friend.
Even if Obama had wanted to hang tough in the Iran negotiations (and there is no indication that he did), this Russian missile deal announced in April would have made it very difficult to do so:
“I find it almost hilarious that the Russians are saying, ”˜It’s an entirely defensive system and cannot attack anyone, including Israel,’” the [an Air Force commander] said. “But it also essentially makes Iran attack-proof by Israel and almost any country without fifth-gen [stealth fighter] capabilities. In other words, Iran, with the S-300, can continue to do what they want once those systems are in place without fear of attack from anyone save the U.S. Brilliant chess move”¦”
It seems to me that Israel will have to attack before these systems are in place, if it attacks at all. What a horrific dilemma for them—a dilemma that should be giving Obama no end of pleasure, since it will be putting his most detested head of state, Benjamin Netanayhu, on the hot seat.
And about that rope to sell. From commenter “Cornhead”:
So now Europe gets some oil and gas and the French and Brits sell cigarettes to the Iran. Nice deal in light of the fact that Iran will turn up its terrorism funding. And the terrorists will be sent to Paris and London.
And other countries in the Mideast—and most likely the US, the Great Satan.
If the defensive systems are so benign, why did Russia have a conniption over defensive systems being placed in Poland? What did Obama get from them for canceling the installation?
Some things I have a hard time believing. Such as that Obama & Co. think this is a good deal for America. There has to be another answer, and there aren’t many that sound good.
I can’t believe this is the best deal they could get.
I can’t believe they will enforce whatever teeth there may be.
I can’t believe that some people, including friends and relations, think Obama is a good president.
They have to be thinking something else; like it’s a good idea the US gets screwed.
Something.
Richard Aubrey:
There are well-intentioned liberals who do indeed think this is the best deal they could get. I already wrote a long explanatory piece on that, and I think you should read it again. Here it is.
This is what I think Obama may be thinking, however.
$100 Billion of unfrozen Iranian assets is a lot of moola. Moola for the continued annexation of Shia Iraq and its oil, for funding Hezbollah, the Houthis and Assad. Iran really does not need the Bomb.
The threat of the Bomb is enough.
Iran is not going to mess with Russia or China.
That leaves the US, France and England.
Why bother with France and England?
And the US under Barack and JFK is craven.
I couldn’t stand to watch much of that presser.
Obama is the WORST speaker ever.
Long answers that say nothing. Filibuster.
Boring. The worst professor or teacher you have ever had.
And zero credibility. “If you like ….”
And he constantly appeals to authority. “MIT prof.” “Science” “Experts.”
And then the false choice, “What’s the alternative? Better deal?”
How about the red lines that you drew at the beginning?
How about you have all the cards?
THANK YOU FOR COVERING THE IMPORTANT DETAILS OF THE MACHINATIONS…
Those were the days…
(Mary Hopkins – the Taylor Swift of her time)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyaTIXdN5fI
Those were the days original russian
Дорогой длинною – Manca Izmajlova
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vd5q1Ioo588
Artfldgr:
My Russian/Soviet reference in the song lyric was indeed intentional. Here’s more background for those who are unaware of the story.
Herewith, an expression of all that is incontrovertibly true of the West’s ruling and power elite.
Building upon power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely, it is apparent that the retention of power is ruthless, and the application of power is selective and applied only to those most tractable. The greatest application of power in the West is to enjoin, prescribe, proscribe, and prohibit the autochthones, the native population, from expressing, let alone acting, as is their right. When, however, it comes to menace inimical to the West — Islam – whether imported immigrants or minatory states, they strike by-your-leave agreements and what…? It’s not pray.
We have rope enough, I think. It’s gibbets we’re short of.
quick question, do you enjoy Basso Profundo? the Oktavist’s? how about Vladimir Semyonovich Vysotsky?
ÐœÐ¾Ñ Ñ†Ñ‹Ð³Ð°Ð½ÑÐºÐ°Ñ | My gypsy song | Variazioni su temi zigani
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XTOu_SZSyQ
i prefer capricious horses – it fits now.
maybe too well.. those unfamiliar may remember latvian baryshnikov singing and dancing the piece in the movie white knights
Vladimir Visotsky “Capricious Horses” – English subtitles / Rough translation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfc7t3u9TBQ
it always reminds me of pink floyds “Time”
The time is gone, the song is over, thought I’d something more to say
The S-300 and the American Patriot system are wildly over rated.
Why?
They are too expensive.
EACH single ‘shot’ costs a BIG fortune, not a small one.
Now that drone aircraft go for peanuts, LOW PERFORMANCE (UAV) aircraft are impossible to stop.
Like B-24/ B-17 heavies, the drones will ALWAYS get through.
And the Iranian air defense can’t send up fighters to shoot down the (slow) drones unless the S-300 is turned off.
Even then, ALL Iranian jet fighters are dead meat if the drones are packing any kind of air to air missile. Even as slow as they are, modern UAVs automatically have dinky radar signatures. They start out being small — in the first place.
&&&&
The REAL reason that Putin gave up on the earlier S-300 export scheme was that SWIFT (the international electronic backbone of money transfers/ international trade) was going to Hoover up ALL Iranian payments BEFORE they ever reached Moscow’s accounts — no matter how they devised a payments scheme. (‘Cause Britain and America have root access to
SWIFT. It’s their baby.)
The S-300 that Putin will sell to Iran will CERTAINLY be a castrated version that Russia can fly right through.
Anything Russia can hack can be hacked by other first rate digital powers. Hint, hint.
It’s a pretty good bet that there’s a SIDE DEAL to ditch Assad.
He’s not been following instructions from either Moscow or Tehran.
Putin really is concerned about ISIS. It’s the ultimate loose cannon. A true Caliphate would entirely re-energize Muslims in Russia. At this time, Putin does not have the military capability to take on another war — especially one that has to be sustained by sea and a trickle of air flights.
Barry’s play will ABSOLUTELY re-energize ISIS — as — with noses held — ever more Sunni powers will kick ISIS some scratch.
Proxy warfare, it’s what they know.
Hence, ISIS, the Arabian desert, … the Spanish Civil War is revisited, too.
Uncanny, no?
Neo
It’s conceivable that there are well-intentioned libs who are so ignorant that they think this is a good deal for the US and the world. If I have to give that, I’d say that the ignorance is deliberate, the result of knowingly putting one’s hands over one’s ears, knowing it means they don’t know enough. But enough to justify their thinking. I might argue about “well-intentioned” and substitute something about feeling superior to those–bitter clingers–.
The thing is, discussing issues like this, no amount of additional information, which is to say, reduced ignorance, makes any difference.
In summary, the rationale given by my liberal friend for the current approach to Iran is that, if it has become impossible to halt Iran’s nuclear program without war or a credible threat of war, then the next best thing is to make the regime into a more cooperative and tractable entity.
It is possible your friend actually believes that. I’d like to say that nobody’s that stupid. But it’s possible. I’d be inclined to think your friend is putting you on; disguising the objective resulting from the Zinn/Ayers view of the US. In reality, they really want the US to be screwed. I suppose they’d say, if caught at it, this would be good for the US.
Blert.
You’re up on military arcana and maybe you could help with this. O/T.
I heard, where I can’t find it, that after WW II, two posthumous MoH were awarded based on the representations of German officers.
You ever hear of this?
Richard Aubrey:
Actually, you could not be more wrong about this person.
Richard Aubrey: “Some things I have a hard time believing. Such as that Obama & Co. think this is a good deal for America.”
Per Neo’s Lenin cite, which is a featured tactic in Alinsky’s playbook, though, it is a good deal for corporate interests as distinct from US national interests.
The Obama admin is tight with big business.
Most people think Alinsky’s rules for radicals are the whole of activism, when they’re just one set of tools in the workshop.
Think in terms of social nodes. The Left has no compunction with exploiting big business to further the Left’s ends by any means necessary. And big business has no national conscience.
Cornhead:
“And then the false choice, “What’s the alternative? Better deal?”
How about the red lines that you drew at the beginning?
How about you have all the cards?”
Yep. Premises and preconditions.
Bush handed off to Obama a progressing strategy of continued cultivation of Iraq as a strategic partner, sanctions, and promotion of civil reform within Iran.
They provided valuable leverage to maintain a hard line with Iran.
Instead, Obama radically changed course and placed the US in a disadvantaged position as the precondition for the Iran negotiations.
The game was first rigged and then purposely lost by the same player.
neo. Is your friend ignorant, or does the concept of “good for america” differ from that most of us hold?
If your friend is ignorant, what additional information would affect the conclusions?
Richard Aubrey,
The fundamental premise of the “well-intentioned liberal” position is their conviction that Bush and, deliberately overlooked, Clinton were wrong on Iraq.
If Bush and Clinton were wrong on Iraq, then logically, that means Russia, the Euros, and China who were opposed to and actively undermined the US-led enforcement of Iraq’s compliance with the Gulf War ceasefire terms were right on Iraq.
Obama’s approach on Iran is directly drawn from the fundamental premise that Bush’s (and Clinton’s) approach on Iraq was wrong and the Russian, Euro, and Chinese position on Iraq that opposed and undermined the US-led Iraq enforcement of the ceasefire terms was correct.
Thus, on the level of fundamental premise, the claim that Obama was wrong on Iran required setting the record straight on the Iraq intervention in the zeitgeist.
But the GOP and the Right, while critical of Obama’s approach to Iran, refused to set the record straight on the Iraq intervention, thus self-neutralizing any criticism of Obama’s approach on Iran.
Richard…
I’ve heard that British Victoria Crosses were triggered by German sworn statements. ( The heroic British in these instances were killed, of course,)
The one that immediately springs to mind was the VC conferred to a Brit (IIRC, could’ve been a Commonwealth officer) who died heroically during the Raid on St. Nazaire, piloting a wooden small vessel to great effect while heavy German guns blew it to pieces.
But, my reading is incomplete, and my memory is failing.
(The emulsion has run, so much for my photographic memory.)
Please note that I’m not defending Obama’s capitulation to Iran, but over the last few months, I’ve read several reasonable analyses claiming that the sanctions coalition was falling apart well before Russia made the deal to supply Iran with a sophisticated missile defense system.
Again, I’m not defending Obama. To me, it seems that he’s intentionally sabotaged any chance of a non-nuclear Middle East. Still, I’m not certain that another president would have been able to hold the sanctions coalition together. Now that the coalition has been dissolved, Congress can do nothing to put it back to together.
As far as their political response goes, Republicans are in a hard position, and I don’t know whether they can do anything very useful. At this point, I think that their best course would be to repeatedly demand that Obama make clear and specific statements regarding American commitment to the defense of Israel. Maybe Congressional Republicans could introduce legislation to that effect, but it’s hard for me to imagine how that would take shape. I think that this is one more critical issue for a new Republican president, and that the current candidates should make it a central part of the campaign.
Still, I’m not certain that another president would have been able to hold the sanctions coalition together.
Being multilateral was pointless. Only America inherited the will to pass freedom down to other generations, even of non Americans. Europe, China, and Russia did not inherit that power or responsibility. America abdicates its responsibility the more it goes ‘multilateral’ and the less it goes ‘cowboy’. Trying to get a coalition of the corrupt together merely distributes responsibility from America. Power will seep out later on.
A Coalition of the Willing is adequate, but how Willing are the willing, is a different question.
Cornflour: “over the last few months, I’ve read several reasonable analyses claiming that the sanctions coalition was falling apart well before Russia made the deal to supply Iran with a sophisticated missile defense system.”
Any falling apart of the sanctions was deliberate, not passive.
If the sanctions were falling apart, who do you think caused that to happen by actively undermining the sanctions regimen in complicity with Iran?
The answer is the same parties, especially Russia, that sabotaged the sanctions regimen and distorted the governing standard of Iraqi compliance under Clinton and Bush, thus encouraging and enabling Saddam’s breach of the terms of the Gulf War ceasefire.
As part of establishing the preconditions in any negotiation with Iran, Obama should have first applied leadership to the “coalition” parties who were undermining the sanctions regimen to correct their behavior and reinforce the sanctions to increase leverage ahead of negotiations.
Instead, Obama had the US cooperate with the parties undermining the sanctions regimen on their terms. He rigged the preconditions to weaken the US leverage in the negotiation with Iran, and positioned the offending parties to control the negotiations.
In effect, Obama entered the negotiation with Iran by breaking the standing US position and supporting the position of the same parties that had undermined US interests for the last 2 decades and favored Saddam’s and Iran’s position.
Their history undermining US-led enforcement efforts with Iraq, encouraging and actively enabling Saddam’s breach of the terms of ceasefire, including and especially the disarmament mandates of UNSCR 687 (1991), bodes poorly for their role in Iran’s disarmament.
US leadership was the bulwark for the free world. At Obama’s direction, the guards have been neutralized and the inmates are running the asylum.
Again, for Obama to apply leadership to correct the offenses by Russia, China, France and others undermining enforcement with Iran would have required the fundamental premise that Bush and Clinton were right on Iraq.
Correcting Russia, China, and France on Iran would have required Obama to adopt the fundamental premise they were wrong on Iraq, which would have meant adopting the fundamental premise Obama and the post-Clinton, anti-Bush Democrats were wrong on Iraq, too.
blert Says: July 15th, 2015 at 4:35 pm
sorry… but you have this wrong… We the USA are no longer the top dogs by a long shot… just cause you THINK they are weak, does not mean they ARE weak.
i think your forgetting 30 years of our nation being open and the best secrets, chips, computers, and so on, were all free to grab, copy, or even pay to attend courses and were shared..
the points your making in your thread are for the LAST WAR
not the current deadline, which would be near the end of Obama term, and into the election, which would be the weakest time for the US.. Obama would either halt the election to handle the issue, or if not, the new regime would not be situated and connected to be maximally effective.
then there is the tiny matter of all our military generals with experienced being replaced, the reductions in troops now to the point of not being able to function (i can show you papers on it), and the population hating itself and not being healthy enough to serve (and the illegal immigrants not being aware that they have to register for the draft) would make for a military draft that would have most turned down for mental, legal, or health reasons, and those who are accepted being a crap shoot as to being loyal and not change sides once they are in action (or giving up thinking that they will be treated well and can sit things out).
russia does not care if the world sucks up the money.. it has lots of it… literally tons of it… you have to follow the details that everyone ignores and are being said are not factual to understand what is there and not there.
Russia has been stockpiling diamonds from before i was born!!!
Russia has just declassified a secret it has been keeping for 40 years: it is sitting on trillions of carats of diamonds, enough to supply the global diamond market for 3,000 years.
The Soviets discovered the bonanza back in the 1970s beneath a 35-million-year-old, 62-mile diameter asteroid crater in eastern Siberia known as Popigai Astroblem.
want to know what else they have saved for the comming years?
they have stockpiled the nuclear weapons they were supposed to destroy but didnt. they took our money and built up their nuclear shelters (the biggest being yamentau mountain, which is the size of the washinton beltway and is under a mountain of quartz), they have stockpiled gold, silver, nickel, etc.
whatever you mayh want to use as a conflict currency, they have enough of to flood the market and make it worthless.
they are not stupid, weak, or anything that one may believe of them… they are a very dangerous, thoughtful, clever, and devious enemy, with the power to act on whatever they want, and who do not openly do so EVER as they are keenly aware of the stuff their own people wrote, disseminated and made so popular we think it despite it being erroneous… (lots of stuff from peak oil, to nuclear coexistence, to aids being a biowarfare item (they admitted to that lie publicly), and a whole lot more)
on top, they been demonizing the US and taking opposing positions in which they are gaming their own people to want conflict.
blert… there is so much that if i type more, procrustes and the elves will come out screaming to have me cut at the knees for being long…
We all know the Democrats have been selling American info to foreign enemies for some decades by now. Why would anyone if it be surprising now… unless they thought Snowden was the problem… Snowden wasn’t even that big a problem when it came to leaking.
Half the US database is in the hands of enemies, and the money is transferred to Democrats.
Don’t believe it? That’s part of the problem.
Artfl, I’ve told you before — the story about the Donald Cook is complete BS – disinformatsiya. You, of all people, who are always warning us about that, should know better.
Russian military technology and tactics have been tried repeatedly and found wanting — in the Yom Kippur war, in Afghanistan, in Iraq, and elsewhere. Their aircraft, pilots and ground crew stink — that’s why their planes fall out of the air.
They have yet to build and operate more than one aircraft carrier. Their 5th generation fighter, the T-50, has yet to get out of the prototype stage, has just been cut back to a 12-aircraft buy, and the Indians, who are co-developing the plane, are disgusted with it.
Their submarines are known to be very dangerous — to their crews, who drain out coolant from the pipes and distill it into poisonous alcohol, which they drink.
Other than a few good outfits like Spetnaz and OMO, their army is made up of very reluctant conscripts and abusive NCOs and officers.
Yes, Barry and the progs are gutting our military, but it can be built up again, and I don’t think Russia’s could.
They have huge restive Muslim populations, and the Russian population is declining rapidly, about to fall off a demographic cliff. The Chinese are moving into, and soon enough, will be taking over Siberia.
If put under pressure, Russia will fold like an empty suit, as the old SU did when pushed by Ronald Reagan.
So they crash the diamond market? Ever hear of the law of supply and demand? Like, I’m going to cry for DeBeers?
Are they capable of causing a lot of mischief? Absolutely Will they take whatever they can get away with? goes without saying? Will they push Barry and the Euro-drones around? Of course.
Would they, could they, stand up to a strong American President? Not a chance.
Art…
Your facts are uncoordinated.
You are teeing off — from the wrong tees and the wrong course in a different state.
My point was, and remains, that the S-300 and Patriot SAM systems are too expensive to be successful. Each single missile costs more than a UAV.
Both are using ultra-high tech missiles — that can dance the tango — but cost so much that they can only realistically be used to ‘snipe’ at the enemy.
Ultra high production UAVs — with intrinsically low radar signatures — are exactly what neither system can handle.
As deterrents they are marvels. No-one is going to bomb Iran in the manner that Germany or Vietnam endured.
Using missiles that cost more than main battle tanks to kill a UAV made out of balsa wood — and spruce — does not pencil out.
Think of UAVs as if they were V-1 buzz bombs — with the smarts of an iPhone.
&&&&&&
Iran and Israel are sure to engage in commercial-economic-political-social warfare.
Both powers will attempt to raise ‘street pressure’ — if only via the Internent — and digital photography.
I’d say that until this hour, Iran’s economy has been driven into the ditch.
Barry Soetoro as decided to single handedly pull the mullahs back to the top of the tarmac.
Folks, if you remember, 0bama has been releasing funds to Iran for most of this year, tranche after tranche.
Barry is the player that has ended the sanctions — and he did so — unilaterally a number of months back.
He let Iran back into the SWIFT money transfers system.
That huge act has gone by the boards. It is BY THE SWIFT system that Barry is sending the fund tranches. That’s how it’s done.
ONCE Putin realized that Iran could remit funds through SWIFT without having London or Washington grabbing same — first — as they both have root access to a system they created — the S-300 deal sprang back up from the dead.
DeBiers is hoarding diamonds as well. The price of diamonds are artificially high due to the cartel prices, just like oil is due to the ME cartel. Fracking shows what the real price should be.
The Chinese are much better at reverse engineering tech, and given how much stuff Clinton gave them, the Chinese tech level should have far surpassed the Russians by now.
Think of UAVs as if they were V-1 buzz bombs – with the smarts of an iPhone.
I agree, drone warfare is the next stage up in military tactics, similar to the carrier vs battleship infighting.