Thomas Sowell makes a point…
…that occurred to me a while ago, but I haven’t seen anyone but Sowell make it:
Secretary of State John Kerry, and other members of the Obama administration, are saying that the alternative to an agreement with Iran is war. But when Israel bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactors, back in 1981, Iraq did not declare war on Israel. It would have been suicidal to do so, since Israel already had nuclear bombs.
There was a time when either Israel or the United States could have destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities, with far less risk of war than there will be after Iran already has its own stockpile of nuclear bombs.
So far I’m in complete agreement with Sowell. Here’s where I start wondering, though:
Indeed, the choice then will no longer be between a nuclear Iran and war. The choice may be between surrender to Iran and nuclear devastation.
My questions is: whose nuclear devastation? It all depends on how rational the Iranian leaders are, versus how apocalyptic. Do they want weapons to use them, or just to intimidate everyone into capitulating to their demands (as we seem to be doing at the mere threat of their getting them)? Do they really think that if they destroyed Israel with a nuclear bomb or two, Iran wouldn’t be destroyed as well? Or is that the Armageddon they want to trigger, because they think it’s ordained they’d be the ones to win? To what extent do they see this as a cosmic rather than an earthly battle? How about bombs and terrorists, or Russia, or any of the other nuclear powers?
In other words, does Mutually Assured Destruction have any meaning for the Iranians? Or does that figure into their goals?
It is all about the Mahdi’s return.
Whatever a damn Mahdi is….
We were forbidden to get into conversations/relationship with the psychiatric inmates. They had cunning ways to suck you into their world we were told…
Knowledge of that rule is serving me well to this very day.
Why are so many people willing to apply the “cautionary principle” to climate change (anthropogenic) but are not willing to do so with a demonstrably dangerous culture like this?
The mullahs view the ‘negotiations’ as proceeding according to inshallah — as Allah will it.
They DON’T credit ANY Western politician with free will.
How this plays out is that they have become even MORE devout as Twelvers.
It’s the ONLY explanation that fits the events and their (theocratic) world view.
So, they cry out, “Damn the infidels. Full radiation ahead!”
BTW, the scale of their effort HAS to lead to them having an atomic throw weight up there with the biggest of the big boys.
You have to take the idea of them settling for a ‘Force de Frappe’ (Parisian style) and put it in the dust bin of notions.
Tehran may not have infinite resources, but it does have now end of natural gas, uranium ores, and salt marsh waste lands to refine said ores within.
The mullahs intend to take the entire world hostage… scaling up from current operations. That is all.
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In the meantime, the fanatics are using their jidahi mind tricks to persuade the weak minds at the ‘negotiating’ table into one zany nostrum after another.
Alec Guinness couldn’t have done it better.
(Smiley or Obi Wan?)
”To what extent do they see this as a cosmic rather than an earthly battle?”
To the extent they should come to see things cosmically, others, not cosmically inclined are more likely to step in. Certainly there’s more Persia in Iran than Arabia, and, I believe, even more Persia than Islam, and, furthermore, more Persian empire than caliphate. It’s just as likely, more likely I think, that the strongman arrives sooner than the Mahdi and that man would look more to Cyrus the Great as model and not the Prophet.
“In other words, does Mutually Assured Destruction have any meaning for the Iranians?”
Did it have any meaning for the 9/11 hijackers? After all, they and the Iranian’s share a religion and IMO the Sunni/Shiite distinction is only an internal one.
Isn’t it obvious that Iran has already “broken out,” and has moved from being a nuclear-threshold state to becoming a nuclear power?
That would explain the “deal”: a cascading series of US concessions to Iranian demands, in exchange for Iran’s cooperation in concealing its nuclear status until after 12 PM on January 20, 2017.
And of course that would make Congress’s involvement moot, as Obama has been insisting anyway, since Congress would have no role in blocking a nuclear Iran from going nuclear (although Obama remains terrified of allowing that information to leak out anywhere, starting with the legislative branch).
Just a thought.
As Iran is doing all over the middle east, it will try to use a proxy to carry a weapon deep inside Israel and detonate it. They will deny official culpability while grinning from ear to ear. And a feckless Democrat president that we’re told will demographically occupy the white house from here on out will do nothing. Funny how that scenario was ridiculous just 6 short years ago but now no one is laughing.
President Bush, October 7, 2002:
Caveat: I do not listen to Rush Limbaugh. However, on or about December 9 or 10, 2014, Limbaugh interviewed Thomas Sowell. The next day on his radio show, Limbaugh said that he had asked Dr Sowell what his greatest fear was. Sowell replied that he feared Iran would attack the US with a nuclear weapon while Obama was “president,” and that the US would not retaliate, but would instead surrender.
Dr Sowell is hardly a tin-foil hat wearing lunatic.
I have been thinking the same thing for a long time. It fits the facts as they are unfolding.
MollyG
Bibi’s statements lead me to believe that Iran has yet to pull it all together.
I strongly suspect that the Iranians are mimicking the American nostrum of ‘Critical Path’ project management.
If the term is new to you: it was first used for the Polaris atomic missile program.
In that bygone era, progress was so confusing — to Congress — that an investigation was initiated as to ‘what had gone wrong.’
Less than seven months after the Congressional inquiry (highly classified at that time) the Polaris program was deemed finished. (!)
All of the separate strands had come together at that time. To all outsiders it appeared that the program was falling a part — whereas it was actually well ahead of schedule.
Critical Path program management is now a staple of modern management theory — and can’t possibly be a secret to Tehran.
It’s the best explanation for the parallel development of their atomic delivery systems: missiles.
BTW, the Iranians are massively involved in compounding their IRBMs up to full ICBM status. It’s this program that keeps running into fuel explosions and engine detonations. (!)
In the meantime, mysterious alien agents keep assassinating all of the smartest, most critical, engineers and scientists in the Iranian program. There have been few survivors. This is a tale that gets almost no press. (So embarrassing!)
It does make for difficult recruiting, though.
&&&&&&
I can well imagine what’s going wrong and holding up the Iranian program.
But, I can’t discuss it in the open, for reasons obvious.
Suffice it to say that Tehran is like the Red Queen: running faster and faster to stay in the exact same place. The ayatollahs must be wondering when they’re going to attain ‘traction.’
Thank you, blert. Very interesting. Got me Googling!
g6loq,
If you want to read an entertainig story about the British Empire’s last encounter with a self declared Mahdi, read Winston Churchill’s, The River War. Among other things he tells the story of the last cavalry charge by the British Army. He was one of the soldiers who took part in the charge.
It also includes his famous opinion of Islam, still true today.
How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy. The effects are apparent in many countries. Improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live. A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement; the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property — either as a child, a wife, or a concubine — must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men. Thousands become the brave and loyal soldiers of the faith: all know how to die but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilisation of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilisation of ancient Rome.”
Paul in Boston Says:
April 10th, 2015 at 5:00 pm
Yes! I have a well thumbed copy. WSC was one of a kind. He was in despair about his times. Maybe we should about ours.
More about the Mahdi delusion.
Winston S. Churchill alert!
Winston Churchill’s official 8-volume biography is FREE from April 9-11
L’homme de pensée précé¨de l’homme d’action, il ne le remplace pas. C. DeGaulle.
WSChurchill was both!
You got that from AmDig.
Richard Fernandez pointed out sometime in mid 2014 that the importance of Iranian A-Bomb #1 is not as an offensive weapon but as a shield behind which they can make A-bombs 2, 3, 4, 5, N
There is some argument that they already have a bomb — but it’s so heavy that they can’t put it on a missile, nor realistically deliver it.
(B-29s are so yesterday.)
While the common public is enthused about ship borne devices, the command realities are that no ayatollah wants to have his magic toy outside his control.
It’s for this reason that the mullahs are spending LARGE on IRBMs at this very moment — and looking to gain full ICBM range in short order.
They want to play in the big sand box.
&&&&&&&&
As I’ve posted before: Iran’s strategic economic assets are at the waters edge. Her inland empire counts for nothing.
A march on Tehran was never in the cards.
&&&&&&
Lest we forget: if Iran fouls up oil exports from Muslim OPEC — including her own — then America gets off Scott free. Due to fracking, American imports from the Gulf are already strictly optional.
This reality MAY be one of the reasons why the US dollar keeps ramping away from the Euro, Yen, and the rest.
Think about it.
Maybe we should pay off Greece’s debts on the condition that they loan us a few hundred Spartans.
neo…
I see that Wretchard has revisited the fool or knave query…
His inquisition is damning.
I liked it better when our nuclear-armed enemy were officially not believing in the afterlife.
“My questions is: whose nuclear devastation? It all depends on how rational the Iranian leaders are, versus how apocalyptic.”
Why the infidel’s devastation, of course. Iran’s leadership is perfectly rational, it’s just that their rationality is used in service of an apocalyptic ideology. They’ve already said that if Iran’s devastation will lead to Islam’s victory, that it’s a price well worth paying.
So it’s a game of ‘chicken’ and the most committed wins that game every time. If we’re willing to have a nuclear war in order to preserve liberty, (“Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty. This much we pledge–and more.”) to if necessary endure the deaths of millions of Americans, then Iran would back down (because we will always be technologically, logistically and thus militarily stronger) but if not, Islam wins.
“Isn’t it obvious that Iran has already “broken out,” and has moved from being a nuclear-threshold state to becoming a nuclear power?”
That’s a possibility but IMO doubtful. I’m doubtful that the Mullah’s are disciplined enough to remain silent once they have the bomb. Doubtful that they have the guile to quietly and covertly build up an arsenal. But if they do have the discipline and guile, it makes them even more dangerous.
“The mullahs intend to take the entire world hostage…”
That is the game plan. That is the theological imperative.
“That would explain the “deal”: a cascading series of US concessions to Iranian demands, in exchange for Iran’s cooperation in concealing its nuclear status until after 12 PM on January 20, 2017.”
That’s certainly why Obama wants a deal. If Iran’s nuclear ‘breakout’ doesn’t happen on his watch, the Left will argue he can’t be held responsible (unlike Bush) for anything that happens after he’s gone.
blert,
It would be foolish both to discount the tactical value of Iranian “ship borne devices:” and to fail to appreciate what Iran’s gaining ICBM capability portends.
“if Iran fouls up oil exports from Muslim OPEC – including her own – then America gets off Scott free.”
Not quite. Yes, we now produce more than enough oil for our needs but if Iran succeeds in ‘fouling up’ 1/3 of the world’s oil supply, the world price of oil skyrockets and the interdependent western economies would, at some point collapse.
Neo, Eric,
The question of “rationality” in nuclear strategy is an interesting one.
I just finished reading The Last Warrior about Andy Marshall and his work at RAND and the Office of Net Assessemnt at the Pentagon. A lot of his early work, and his later work at ONA, focused on the question of “rationality” in Soviet decision-making.
His theory, and he used the Cuban Missile Crisis to back this up, was that pure rationality, like you’d get out of a cost-benefit analysis plugged into a computer simulation, just isn’t possible with human organizations. When people are making decisions, even rational actors can miscalculate, can be pulled in different and dangerous directions by the forces at play within (and competing with each other within) a bureaucracy, and that the adversary’s analysis of your capabilities can lead to decisions that, while rational to them, look insane to you.
If that’s the case with the Soviets and their Scientific Socialism, what does that mean for Iran? Do they even have a clue as to the factors that would come into play if a country with thousands of nuclear warheads had to start contemplating first-strike strategies in response to the new strategic balance?
The most amazing thing that I learned from the book was that the US and the Soviets gamed out limited nuclear use scenarios up through the end of the Cold War – strategies that allowed for the use of tactical nuclear weapons without engaging the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP), the total nuclear annhilation of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact.
So, if even the US gov’t during the Cold War could envision limited nuclear use as a potentially viable strategic option to defeat a Soviet or Warsaw Pact conventional offensive, in what possible reality are we supposed to view the Iranians (who tried to bomb a US restaurant a couple of years ago!) as being “rational” Benthamite Utilitarians when conceiving of the use of nukes!
If we could have eliminated the USSR’s capacity to develop a nuclear capability in ’45-’49, we could have changed the world. It’s just amazing that we’re blindly letting this Obama bastard lead us blindly towards a nightmare world where unstable regimes develop nuclear capability as fast as they possibly can.
MAD was a risky strategy, but it worked because the opponents, (China & USSR versus the U.S. and our allies) were able to understand the magnitude of nuclear war. One reason for the non-proliferation strategy was to keep the weapons out of the hands of non-rational actors.
So much for all that history. Obama and his supporters all believe that our possession of the bomb is the reason others want it. Yet, from 1945 until 1949 we were the only nation with the bomb and a means to deliver it. In the hands of an Adolf Hitler or a Joe Stalin, it’s likely that they would have used it to blackmail/bomb all other countries into submission – attaining their goal of empire.
Now, through years of anti-American subversion by the hippies of the 60s, we have reached a point where it’s not unthinkable to those in our government to let a theocracy with delusions of grandeur have the bomb. It’s bad enough that unsettled/rogue states like North Korea and Pakistan have the bomb. We’re looking at an arms race in the most irrational, irresponsible part of the world.
The “deal’ should be canceled and tough sanctions re-imposed. It might mean war, but it would be war with a country without the bomb. Once they have it, it’s obvious they would use it for blackmail. And they might be crazy enough to try to use it on Israel or us.
>> “My questions is: whose nuclear devastation? It all depends on how rational the Iranian leaders are, versus how apocalyptic. Do they want weapons to use them, or just to intimidate everyone into capitulating to their demands (as we seem to be doing at the mere threat of their getting them)?”
There´s an issue you´re not taking into account.
It´s not even necessary to start a war.
It only takes one bomb to destroy the whole US or the whole Europe, as long as it explodes high enough to create an EMP attack. You don´t need to declare war for that, a terrorist group could do it. The only thing you need is to supply an atomic bomb to them.
If suddenly an EMP attack happens, who you fight back? where do you aim your missiles? Iran, China, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia?
Of course, you could investigate and find who were behind the attack. But this investigation will never happen, because your country have been already destroyed. Your priority won´t be to investigate. It will be to find food.
This is a very important issue, because nuclear war balance is based in “if you bomb me, I bomb you and everybody is destroyed”. But when you add terrorism and a possible EMP attack into the equation everything changes. There´s no balance anymore.
The world can change completely if Iran gets nuclear.
“The mullahs intend to take the entire world hostage…”
No. They intend to take the West hostage. Isn’t it obvious that they are being used as proxy in a wider game of realignment?
It was said, back in the day, that the Sovs did not have a bright line between conventional weapons and nukes. It was a kind of sliding scale.
If, hypothetically, we had conventional missiles which could appear out of nowhere [stealthy] and home in on missile silo doors, breaking them, jamming them, maybe even just torquing opening mechanism, iow little actual damage but completely ruining their missile force, they’d go nuke with what they had left.
If we had some kind of drone–speaking hypothetically–flying stealthily and in the thousands autonomously loitering for days and popping a Hellfire at sov tanks, thus deleting their armored forces, they’d go nuke.
The Other Chuck:
You can’t aim a Muslim.
Ayatollah Soetoro has established at least that.
Yann…
The EMP notion is entirely bogus. I’ve gone over the electrical physics here many times before.
Suffice it to say that EMP can’t work against shielded electrical systems — inside Faraday cages — and most of the stuff you’re thinking of is just so protected.
Aircraft
Automobiles
Trucks
Trains
Laptop computers
Tablet computers
Cell phone towers
Telephone networks
etc.
EMP worked — and was a surprise — against 1960s technology. That was a world of FUSED homes, fused just about everything. Circuit breakers were brand new back then.
Today, should an EMP strike hit, you’d go out and reset your circuit breakers.
As for the power company: their main lines are already protected — and AUTOMATICALLY reset — reclose — which is why the crews are able to handle winter storms.
EMP does not work against optical networks — which just happen to be the back bone of the Internet, the phone system, and military communications.
To top that off: a single point EMP blast would require a very high power hydrogen bomb and a very slick missile to get it there.
Meaning that you are DREAMING.
And, for a parting shot, there is no way that an EMP blast can be put into orbit via non-state actors. NO WAY.
In which case, the offender just gets erased for no serious inconvenience to the US of A.
EMP is a fantasy weapon. Neither the USA nor USSR EVER thought that anything could be gained by making a play at it. You may take that as a big clue.
JJ
“Now, through years of anti-American subversion by the hippies of the 60s”
The ‘baby boom’ generation has certainly done their part but the anti-American subversion that indoctrinated the Left’s memes into that generation started long before their birth.
blert,
I too have looked into EMP attacks and while there is conflicting evidence as to the effectiveness of an EMP attack, the evidence that there is nothing to worry about is far from conclusive. Congress established a commission of experts to look into it, they have and their report and testimony reached an unequivocal conclusion that it is a potentially grave threat to America.
“Suffice it to say that EMP can’t work against shielded electrical systems – inside Faraday cages – and most of the stuff you’re thinking of is just so protected.
That is factually untrue. In tests, automobiles and trucks exhibited a range of results from unaffected to simply not starting. Aircraft and trains are NOT hardened against EMP. Desktop, Laptop and tablet computers do NOT reside in Faraday cages. Cell phones are extremely vulnerable as are all handheld electronics using computer chips. Telephone networks are vulnerable because even optical networks rely on ‘last mile’ copper cable, not to mention ‘end use’ components.
Circuit breakers would be nearly useless, they cannot react quickly enough to the EMP surge which is NOT equivalent to a lightning strike. An EMP surge affects the entire chain both before and after the point of interruption that a circuit breaker offers.
The power company’s lines are NOT protected but the real vulnerability in electrical distribution systems is the critical transformers, which are extremely vulnerable and nearly irreplaceable. There are tens of thousands and but a few dozens of replacements on hand. (expensive, time intensive to construct and the need for replacement rare)
It’s true that optical lines themselves are not vulnerable but optical networks consist of many vulnerable components. If computers have become doorstops, the internet becomes useless to all but the military. But while the military would be least affected, they would be overwhelmed by the extent of the immediate needs of the public.
A single point EMP blast would indeed require a very high power hydrogen bomb (which reportedly both the Iranians and N Koreans are working on) but… it would NOT require “a very slick missile” to get it 200-300 miles above us.
“And, for a parting shot, there is no way that an EMP blast can be put into orbit via non-state actors. NO WAY. “
Setting aside the inherently flawed “it could never happen” argument, EMP blasts do NOT occur from orbit. Detonation 150-300 miles above ground zero is the goal. And the means for a non-state actor to launch an EMP attack has existed for years. Among others, Pakistan has the nukes and missiles. Russia sells on the open market, a commercial shipping container launching system.
All ISIS need do is assemble those three elements and arrange for them to be placed aboard three commercial container ships bound for U.S. east, west and gulf coast ports and then launch while just outside the 12 mile limit.
In my estimation and the Congressional EMP Commission, the threat is potentially far more viable than you credit.
Dear Supreme Leader: …boom…Boooom…. BOOOOOOOM….BIG F***ING B*O*O*M..!!
May You Turn on a Spit in Hell for Eternity,
With True Sincerity,
Bibi With Balls
@Blert
Good points, nicely explained.
GB you’re being hosed by the NEMA industry players.
If they are ever asked — everything is a crisis and requires billions of Federal spending — on THEIR products.
Transformers — ALL of them — can withstand astonishing short term peaks in energy.
The jolt is massively softened by the inherent nature of the magnetic circuit… ie transformer steels. They are massive inductors and buffer the jolt.
While a multi-megaton warhead has spectacular energy release — nature contrives to dampen the burst.
1) The atomic blast (radiation burst) has to be transmitted into the ionosphere with at least some degree of efficiency. This turns out to be a highly variable figure. Tehran will have really out done themselves if they can get their shot tuned correctly — without any prior real world tests.
Lots of luck on that one.
2) The ionosphere has to propagate the electromagnetic burst just so… or you take another terrific hit to your energy quanta.
3) The target inductors (power lines manly) have to receive a mighty short pulse to get up past the inherent magnetic inertia of all of the inductors to get at the capacitors and insulation — where real damage can be done.
Boy, that’s a tall order. The very physical phenomena that propagate the burst do so at far, far, less than the speed of light.
The single most likely adverse effect would be to destabilize the power grid — and cause a cascade of tripped circuit breakers. This has happened repeatedly in the recent past. It took Italy days to reboot their grid, a full week to get to the last mile.
4) It’s not enough to get a shot up 300 miles, or some such. You have to get your shot up 300 miles pretty much in the center of the continental USA. That’s some trick.
Since no-one would believe that the shot came from the great powers, the Muslims would really be in the hot seat.
The Three Conjectures would kick in.
No, no, EMP is not the threat. The real threat is the total repeal of nuclear weapons propagation. And that’s exactly what ayatollah Soetoro intends to trigger.
With enough atomics loose in Muslim hands — and the Twelver approach to death — the real threat is virtually a universal armageddon before this century is out.
For Twelvers, the more apocalyptic, the better.
In the meantime, Iran would be in a fulsome position to poison world trade and bleed all infidel powers into penury — until they frack.
These possibilities are virtual certainties, not EMP.
If nothing else, it’s not destructive enough for Twelvers, which, BTW, was pretty much the attitude of both the USA and USSR.
It does make for a nice squirrel — keeping the debate aimed entirely away from the Muslim apocalypse that is inevitable — given their creed.
Again, see The Three Conjectures.
nix propagation — go with containment.